1st Round TE's aren't what you think, and neither is Adam Shaheen.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I got the itch to do some research on other positions outside of RB and I tried to focus on TE. I saw some work done on how bench press and college production or whatever else appears to correlate with success. We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well". I decided to look further into the subject for myself.

You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a legitimate 1st round "stud/difference maker" TE (and I would define that as roughly 3+ years of around 800+ receiving yards). Greg Olsen in 2007. Vernon Davis in 2006. Kellen Winslow 2004. Todd Heap, Dallas Clark and Heath Miller are borderline. That's pretty much it since the year 2000. So prior to 2017, the 18 or so 1st round TE's since 2000 yielded 3-6 "studs" at best. That's... not good, right? In fantasy we're not looking for the TE's that get you 400-500 receiving yards every year (although they are nice to have for depth). What we really want is sustained high-level success... yearly difference makers. Studs. But we can't just assume every 1st round TE is going to be a stud... in fact, it seems the majority of them won't be. So now what do we do.

I started looking at some common traits that most successful stud TE's share. I ran the numbers and to minimal surprise, several players from the 2013 and 2017 TE classes popped up very favorably. But we already kind of knew that, right? Well I think what really surprised me is that Adam Shaheen literally checks every box. Admittedly he was already on my radar from other models I've seen but I suppose I didn't realize just how well he fits the stud TE mold. He was an after-thought in most rookie drafts last year and his lack of usage this year probably hasn't moved the needle much for most (although he did haul in 12 of 12 catchable targets). The Bears new Head Coach is coming from spending 5 years in Kansas City where they heavily utilized Travis Kelce (whom coincidentally profiles very similarly to Shaheen). The Bears (right now at least) have limited receiving options and a young QB that could look to lean on his TE.

Only about 13 of 262 TE's met the requirements, so it's a very select group. Full disclosure, Rob Housler is the one major outlier that checks every box but was a total dud (it's remarkable just how bad he's been given his NFL draft resume). Other TE's whose fate have yet to be determined such as ASJ also passed with flying colors. So i'm not saying to go crazy acquiring Shaheen at any cost, but I do believe he makes for a worthwhile investment if you can get him cheaply.

[lukkynumber13]

Quite nice, thank you DD!

[gameaholica]

What are the boxes you are checking off?

[clarion contrarion]

^^^ save yourself the time its like the colonel's 11 spices he won't give them up - either trust him or don't but the recipe won't be published right DD

[Quinty]

Rob Housler was a red shirted senior, which should have been a huge red flag.

[Valhalla]

Rob Housler was a red shirted senior, which should have been a huge red flag.

I’d imagine that it’s much more common for tight ends to stay through their senior year, so this shouldn’t be that uncommon for NFL tight ends. I could be wrong, though.

[Pac_Eddy]

We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well".

I don't think this is a thing, at least not that I've seen.

Nice writeup overall. I think that once a TE does hit, they can last for a lot of years. Gonzalez, Gates, Olsen, Kelce, Graham. I took Howard late in the first round last year hoping he can be one of those guys that ramps up to fantasy starter over three years, then continue may solid years. While the hit rate is low, all positions are pretty low after the first six picks or so.

[Life of Pablo]

DD with the DD, so I can make some money and get my wife some DD's. Thanks as always

[Phaded]

DD is the type of guy where I trust his analysis.
With that said, I already felt this way about tight ends.

Why must you bring this to light though DD? Why!?

[ArrylT]

I own Shaheen in about 75% of my leagues - I guess the odds I'll be able to own him in the other 25% just went down.

[StableOfRBs]

I got the itch to do some research on other positions outside of RB and I tried to focus on TE. I saw some work done on how bench press and college production or whatever else appears to correlate with success. We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well". I decided to look further into the subject for myself.

You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a legitimate 1st round "stud/difference maker" TE (and I would define that as roughly 3+ years of around 800+ receiving yards). Greg Olsen in 2007. Vernon Davis in 2006. Kellen Winslow 2004. Todd Heap, Dallas Clark and Heath Miller are borderline. That's pretty much it since the year 2000. So prior to 2017, the 18 or so 1st round TE's since 2000 yielded 3-6 "studs" at best. That's... not good, right? In fantasy we're not looking for the TE's that get you 400-500 receiving yards every year (although they are nice to have for depth). What we really want is sustained high-level success... yearly difference makers. Studs. But we can't just assume every 1st round TE is going to be a stud... in fact, it seems the majority of them won't be. So now what do we do.

I started looking at some common traits that most successful stud TE's share. I ran the numbers and to minimal surprise, several players from the 2013 and 2017 TE classes popped up very favorably. But we already kind of knew that, right? Well I think what really surprised me is that Adam Shaheen literally checks every box. Admittedly he was already on my radar from other models I've seen but I suppose I didn't realize just how well he fits the stud TE mold. He was an after-thought in most rookie drafts last year and his lack of usage this year probably hasn't moved the needle much for most (although he did haul in 12 of 12 catchable targets). The Bears new Head Coach is coming from spending 5 years in Kansas City where they heavily utilized Travis Kelce (whom coincidentally profiles very similarly to Shaheen). The Bears (right now at least) have limited receiving options and a young QB that could look to lean on his TE.

Only about 13 of 262 TE's met the requirements, so it's a very select group. Full disclosure, Rob Housler is the one major outlier that checks every box but was a total dud (it's remarkable just how bad he's been given his NFL draft resume). Other TE's whose fate have yet to be determined such as ASJ also passed with flying colors. So i'm not saying to go crazy acquiring Shaheen at any cost, but I do believe he makes for a worthwhile investment if you can get him cheaply.

Only thing I'm curious about is how this would compare to other positions. In the 5 years since 2012 (the ridiculous 2014 class aside) there have only been 2 solid fantasy WRs, Cooper and Hopkins.

-Blackmon
-Floyd
-Wright
-Jenkins
-Austin
-Patterson
-White
-Parker
-Perriman
-Agholor
-Dorsett

None of those WRs has had more than 1 1000 yard season, the only two on the list that have had one are Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd. The 2016 class has done pretty poorly so far but I think it's still early for some of them, Fuller has had the most yards so far with 635 his rookie year and 423 this year. The 2017 trio has been dismal as well (although, again, still too early to call busts) with a combined 45 catches for 470 yards and 0 TDs this year. Cooper and Hopkins are 2 out of 13 first round WRs taken since 2012 and the only ones who have been even remotely productive on a consistent basis. Again, ignoring the 2014 grouping which has looked more and more like an outlier as the years go by.

If 1st round TEs hit more often than 1st round WRs and in general nobody has an issue with the WR classes from year to year then is TE really that bad of an issue? They honestly seem like a safer option in the 1st round than WRs, at least in the recent years (can't really compare RBs because the usage is way different than TEs and WRs who are 99% of the time strictly pass-catchers).

[dynastyninja]

We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well".

I don't think this is a thing, at least not that I've seen.

Yeah I've never seen that either

[ArrylT]

If we go more into NFL success, and not just fantasy value, I would argue Mercedes Lewis has been a big hit - 12 years as a TE all for the Jaguars. Considering the boom/bust nature of NFL draft picks in general that is pretty solid - not great by any means - and definitely not a fantasy success story - but still remarkable.

[Bot101]

*Looking at my own sig*

Giggidy

[Goddard]

We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well".

I don't think this is a thing, at least not that I've seen.

Yeah I've never seen that either

Same here. Actually, I don't know the numbers, but 6 of the 18 1st round TEs becoming studs doesn't seem that bad. I'd be curious what the percentage of RBs and WRs taken in the 1st round become studs at their position.

As for Shaheen, I like him and think he has the skills and opportunity to at least be a good TE. I'd consider buying for a late 2nd, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he could be had for much cheaper a year from now, as it takes most TEs (even the past studs) a few years to develop.