Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:04 am
I got the itch to do some research on other positions outside of RB and I tried to focus on TE. I saw some work done on how bench press and college production or whatever else appears to correlate with success. We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well". I decided to look further into the subject for myself.
You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a legitimate 1st round "stud/difference maker" TE (and I would define that as roughly 3+ years of around 800+ receiving yards). Greg Olsen in 2007. Vernon Davis in 2006. Kellen Winslow 2004. Todd Heap, Dallas Clark and Heath Miller are borderline. That's pretty much it since the year 2000. So prior to 2017, the 18 or so 1st round TE's since 2000 yielded 3-6 "studs" at best. That's... not good, right? In fantasy we're not looking for the TE's that get you 400-500 receiving yards every year (although they are nice to have for depth). What we really want is sustained high-level success... yearly difference makers. Studs. But we can't just assume every 1st round TE is going to be a stud... in fact, it seems the majority of them won't be. So now what do we do.
I started looking at some common traits that most successful stud TE's share. I ran the numbers and to minimal surprise, several players from the 2013 and 2017 TE classes popped up very favorably. But we already kind of knew that, right? Well I think what really surprised me is that Adam Shaheen literally checks every box. Admittedly he was already on my radar from other models I've seen but I suppose I didn't realize just how well he fits the stud TE mold. He was an after-thought in most rookie drafts last year and his lack of usage this year probably hasn't moved the needle much for most (although he did haul in 12 of 12 catchable targets). The Bears new Head Coach is coming from spending 5 years in Kansas City where they heavily utilized Travis Kelce (whom coincidentally profiles very similarly to Shaheen). The Bears (right now at least) have limited receiving options and a young QB that could look to lean on his TE.
Only about 13 of 262 TE's met the requirements, so it's a very select group. Full disclosure, Rob Housler is the one major outlier that checks every box but was a total dud (it's remarkable just how bad he's been given his NFL draft resume). Other TE's whose fate have yet to be determined such as ASJ also passed with flying colors. So i'm not saying to go crazy acquiring Shaheen at any cost, but I do believe he makes for a worthwhile investment if you can get him cheaply.
I'm curious how you looked at the TE's. Not all these TE's were taken for their pass catching prowess. The Jets were notorious for angering their fan base on draft day, and one of the reasons was the frequency with which they used top draft picks on blocking TE's. It used to be quite common to do that. A couple of examples of guys like that include Anthony Becht, Heath Miller, Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Pettigrew, and to some extent Jerramy Stevens who a lot was expected of in the passing game, but hadn't actually done anything in college as a prospect worthy of note. There are an unusual amount of busts, and if we look at the 2nd/3rd round we'll see even more guys that were drafted as much or more for in line blocking as for pass catching skills.
I am the very happy owner of Shaheen in nearly all of my leagues, even in one or two where people inexplicably dropped him during the season (did they expect him to go 50-750-6 w/no talent anywhere in that offense?!?! and as a rookie TE too? with no QB?), I made a point of going hard after TE's in all of my rookie drafts prioritzing them 1. Njoku 2. Howard 3. Engram 4.Everett 5. Jonnu Smith and 6. G. Kittle. I believe I own at least 2 shares of all of them save Howard, and in most cases I own 3-4 shares across my 8 dynasty teams, and there isn't a single dynasty team that has fewer than 2 of those 6 guys. I just LOVED those prospects, and while I absolutely detested using up roster space on players who might not be usable until late '18 or even later, the TE position is such an abject disaster that I felt it would be a much better use of resources to pick up a couple of these guys, then trade a ton of assets, or use a very very high draft pick on a top 3-4 TE back when Gronk, Kelce, Reed, and Olsen cost so much and all had issues in place. Much better to me to take a couple of shot at guys like them, and then pick up one competent vet, and wait.
I'm pretty happy with that strategy at this point because other than Everett, 5 of those 6 guys showed me enough in 2017 to suggest that as full time starters getting tons of snaps, they'd probably become hugely productive, and with Everett, I think they're just sorting out that offense on the run (of the pass catching weapons on the offense, virtually all of them were newly acquired: Woods, Watson, Kupp, Everett. I imagine as Everett learns the system he could evolve into a legit weapon, as he was drafted to be the Rams Jordan Reed.
Only 435 targets to go around - Ward took 113, Holmes to 85, Miller got 14% again with 61.
