1st Round TE's aren't what you think, and neither is Adam Shaheen.

[akbfrosty]

We've all heard the trope "1st round TE's never bust" or they "hold their value really well".

I don't think this is a thing, at least not that I've seen.

I did some work on Tight Ends last year that looked back at 1st round Tight Ends drafted from 2001-2016 that sort of said what DD is alluding to with those quotes. I'm having trouble finding what my actual numbers were, so I'll ball park it. Also, my numbers were more to prove to people that 1st round Tight Ends don't actually take longer to develop.

From memory...Tight Ends drafted in the 1st round from the aforementioned years had at least one TE1 season by their 3rd year something like 80% of the time and had a TE1 season by their 4th year something like 85% of the time (probably a little lower now because Ebron was TE13). I didn't actually look at longevity of the production, though, just if a TE1 season happened in the 1st 4 years. Using that info, I felt comfortable saying that OJ, Engram, and Njoku were some of the safest late 1sts/early 2nds that we had seen in a long time, and I stand by that. Their values feel "safe".

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'll back you, DD, as this was definitely at one time a very common line of thinking in fantasy circles that if a TE was selected in the first round they were a lock for fantasy success.

Ok, I thought I had gone mad there for a second

I felt comfortable saying that OJ, Engram, and Njoku were some of the safest late 1sts/early 2nds that we had seen in a long time, and I stand by that. Their values feel "safe".

Yeah I agree with that. I made this thread b/c statistically Shaheen is as good or even a better bet than those 3 based on my research. It wasn't to say those 3 were bad bets.

[DJB]

Wasn't sure where to put it. Not sure we had a dedicated TE draft thread.

Bucky Brooks tight ends

Goedert
Hurst
Andrews
Gisiki
Fumagalli

[Chwf3rd]

I think Goedert is being very much undervalued by the general media right now. While he’s not quite on the level of OJ/Engram/Njoku he’s just below them and is a 1st round caliber TE.

[Quinty]

Rob Housler was a red shirted senior, which should have been a huge red flag.

I’d imagine that it’s much more common for tight ends to stay through their senior year, so this shouldn’t be that uncommon for NFL tight ends. I could be wrong, though.

You're probably wrong given that you didn't read my post before responding, and your answer has nothing to do with what I said.

Freshmen redshirt. That makes sense. A senior redshirting? Healthy seniors should be kicking butt on the field, not taking a year off.

[FantasyFreak]

Not to say Shaheen can't or won't be good, but I do think that the signing of Burton caps his usage for the next little while.

[Valhalla]

Rob Housler was a red shirted senior, which should have been a huge red flag.

I’d imagine that it’s much more common for tight ends to stay through their senior year, so this shouldn’t be that uncommon for NFL tight ends. I could be wrong, though.

You're probably wrong given that you didn't read my post before responding, and your answer has nothing to do with what I said.

Freshmen redshirt. That makes sense. A senior redshirting? Healthy seniors should be kicking butt on the field, not taking a year off.

Unwedgify your panties. I did mis-read your post. I read the redshirted senior bit as “he was redshirted and then still stayed through senior year, giving him 5 years in college, making him an old rookie.” I didn’t realize that he was actually redshirted in his senior year, which I agree is a big flag.
You are correct. I misinterpreted your meaning, which was clearly written. I did, however, read your post before responding, as I always do. Sorry for offending.

[ninotoreS]

NFL teams typically want 1st round picks to be instant starters. Thus, TEs just aren't usually logical picks for NFL teams in the 1st round since even the best prospects at the position are rarely able to be full-time contributors immediately.

Anyway, as a Kelce owner who drafted him, he does not profile closely to Shaheen. Kelce weighs twenty pounds less than Shaheen, and as such is significantly faster and more explosive.

Shaheen is closer to Kyle Rudolph.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

NFL teams typically want 1st round picks to be instant starters. Thus, TEs just aren't usually logical picks for NFL teams in the 1st round since even the best prospects at the position are rarely able to be full-time contributors immediately.

Anyway, as a Kelce owner who drafted him, he does not profile closely to Shaheen. Kelce was and is significantly faster (several receptions in which he out-sprinted DBs after the catch on his Cincy tape) and weighs twenty pounds less than Shaheen.

Shaheen is closer to Kyle Rudolph. Who probably represents the former's ceiling.

If you look at Shaheen and Rudolph weight-adjusted 40's it's not even close. Not saying Shaheen is close to Kelce, I would have to read back to see where that is mentioned. But he's probably closer to Kelce than Rudolph, on paper at least.

[ninotoreS]

It's in your OP.

I just looked at Rudolph's weight coming out. I didn't realize he was only 260 then. I take it back, Shaheen is definitely more impressive athletically than him.

I dunno who to compare Shaheen to. Few 280lbs TEs become featured pass-catchers in the NFL, but few 280lbs TEs have Shaheen's quick feet.

[Space Cowboy]

Hayden hurst in a TE premium?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It's in your OP.

I just looked at Rudolph's weight coming out. I didn't realize he was only 260 then. I take it back, Shaheen is definitely more impressive athletically than him.

I dunno who to compare Shaheen to. Few 280lbs TEs become featured pass-catchers in the NFL, but few 280lbs TEs have Shaheen's quick feet.

so it is

Anyways, like i said on paper they are pretty close in terms of weight-adjusted stuff. I agree you can point out some differences in terms of the raw numbers.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but I think Shaheen would be the heaviest stud TE if he were to become a stud. I think he probably was swimming his 1st year coming from a smaller school which is probably why they brought in Burton to help out (I still don't understand the infatuation with Burton... anyway) but I still like him long-term obviously.

[A-train]

The adam Shaheen owner just offered him to me for pick 34. Should I pull the trigger?

[ArrylT]

The adam Shaheen owner just offered him to me for pick 34. Should I pull the trigger?

I would myself.

[ninotoreS]

Not bad in a 20-team league, I think? Could be challenging to land a difference-making TE1 in a league that large, so you gotta roll the dice harder, I suppose.

Personally, I think the Trey Burton hype is a little bit overstated. He only ever splashed when Ertz was sidelined, and a TE with 4th percentile arm-length just doesn't seem bueno to me. Even a successful tweener at the position like Jordan Reed still has long arms.

Shaheen wasn't bad as a rookie. Making a huge jump in competition from D-2 ball at a position with a particularly steep learning curve, he still managed a decent PFF grade of 72.4. The potential in Shaheen's profile is real. I just don't know if the Bears truly envision him as a featured pass-catcher at any point.