Evan Engram value?

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby cazzie33 » Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:08 pm

Not trying to go all Louie C.K. on you guys and stroke myself in front of you :drool: but I snagged the double E in every lg as I see him as M. Evans with a TE designation.

Most claimed I paid too high of a price with all the TE talent in the draft. Almost every one of them has come back offering their Kittle, Sheehan, Njoku, etc... And something to get Engram.

So I agree with most everyone that if it isn't top two then keep the stud TE .

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Jfever » Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:28 pm

Lots of rose colored glasses here. It's a near lock that his targets will drop and likely drop significantly . I'm not doubting the pass catching talent at all, but as a vikings fan, and a guy that's watched every game, pre season, reg season, layoffs, and in person for 4 days at camp in August in Mankato - how Shurmer runs and manages his offense, I will say that the production we saw from EE last year we won't see again anytime soon. My point hinges heavily on a healthy OBJ, S.Sheppard, and B.Marshall. where there's smoke there is sometimes fire so.... and likely J.Mckinnon (assuming from what I've heard - he goes there ) he'll be catching 30-40 passes. The numbers just don't add up to defend the stance that Engram should be worth more than or equal to the 1.03 unless it's a start 2 TE league. Again, not knocking the talent. Just objectively looking at realistic target volume reduction based on personnel groups, and Shurmers tendencies. To me, this makes absolute sense. I own him no where and feel no need to try to acquire him or any other 2nd year TE who is poised to regress a bit. I'd call trading the 1.03 for E.Engram chasing points. I wonder if I'm in the minority here...?
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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:46 pm

JFever wrote: Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:28 pm Lots of rose colored glasses here. It's a near lock that his targets will drop and likely drop significantly . I'm not doubting the pass catching talent at all, but as a vikings fan, and a guy that's watched every game, pre season, reg season, layoffs, and in person for 4 days at camp in August in Mankato - how Shurmer runs and manages his offense, I will say that the production we saw from EE last year we won't see again anytime soon. My point hinges heavily on a healthy OBJ, S.Sheppard, and B.Marshall. where there's smoke there is sometimes fire so.... and likely J.Mckinnon (assuming from what I've heard - he goes there ) he'll be catching 30-40 passes. The numbers just don't add up to defend the stance that Engram should be worth more than or equal to the 1.03 unless it's a start 2 TE league. Again, not knocking the talent. Just objectively looking at realistic target volume reduction based on personnel groups, and Shurmers tendencies. To me, this makes absolute sense. I own him no where and feel no need to try to acquire him or any other 2nd year TE who is poised to regress a bit. I'd call trading the 1.03 for E.Engram chasing points. I wonder if I'm in the minority here...?
You seem pretty confident in your take on how reality will play out in the NFL. I suppose however that's something we need to feel confident about as dynasty owners. I'll hang onto my rose colored glasses and continue to believe that EE has a bright future ahead despite your misgivings. We'll see how this plays out moving forward, and I don't think 2018 will be definitive in that storyline. It will only be one season from a 24-year-old TE who in my opinion has a bright future in the league. Agree to disagree.

You believe situation and coaching tendencies will waste his prime years and I disagree with your premise. If you want you can resurrect this post in a few years to prove me wrong. I'm totally comfortable owning that if it comes to pass. But I think those that are discounting Engram's ability are selling short on a valuable dynasty asset.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

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RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Jfever » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:00 pm

Fair. To be clear, I'm not doubting his talent. That seemed pretty evident. I just feel like TE is a very scheme and opportunity based position. Prob the most dependant on role n scheme out of all offensive skill / fantasy positions. # as in it often isn't surprising to see a less than elite physical specimen put up fantasty top 5-10 TE seasons. I agree wholeheartedly that he is one of the top 5 most talented TE's in the league. I just wouldn't wager a top 3 draft pick on him producing like a top 5 dynasty TE. Too many questions. I have doubts with E.Mannings ability and career in NY. Who's next could have huge implications on Engrams target volume. As will a healthy starting trio of Wr. As will an upgrade at the RB position, and, as will Shurmers scheme. * At least what we've seen thus far, aside from RZ targets. He has, in general, proven to be good at using talent of individuals he's got. So, there is that.
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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby ArrylT » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:13 pm

Targets by Top 12 TEs

2017

Kelce - 122
Engram - 115
Ertz - 108
Walker - 106
Gronk - 105
Doyle - 103
Graham - 89
Witten - 84
Cook - 82
Ebron - 80
Rudolph - 78
ASJ - 74

2016

Olsen - 125
Rudolph - 117
Kelce - 115
Pita - 105
Walker - 94
Witten - 94
Ertz - 90
Graham - 88
Gates - 85
Kendricks - 84
Reed - 83
Brate - 82

2015

Olsen - 122
Walker - 119
Gronk - 113
Barnidge - 112
Reed - 110
Ertz - 103
Kelce - 101
Watson - 100
Witten - 96
Bennett - 80
Gates - 80
Clay - 78
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Jfever » Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:00 pm

Not sure what the target list from last few yrs means for future targets for Engram in his situation in 2018. One thing seems to be pretty obvious though is that he should see somewhere between 70-100 targets depending on his own health and the health of OBJ, other wr and Rb. My gut says 80-85 is realistic. That would still be nice and could lead to 50-60 rec for 600-800 yds. Which would fit into how Shurmer uses TE that can block and catch. Just no where near anything worth a 1.03 draft pic in anything other than a two TE league. Wonder if the Engram owners / supporters in this thread feel like a healthy OBJ will be regressing in targets and that Shurmer plans on not using his rb in passing game. Let's remember, there are only so many targets to go around. How many times do we expect E.Manning to be dropping back? How involved do we expect the NYG healthy #1,#2 and #3 wr's to be? Will Engram be used out of TE position as the Giants true #2 target most of the time and not block in Shurmers scheme? This assumes a very solid offensive line. I don't know a ton about the Giants o-line, but, I do know that the Vikings line was real solid in 2017, so I won't assume anything further.
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* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby CK_ » Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:16 am

It is definitely not scheme and opportunity dependent as it has it been in previous years. It has definitely changed to something more. As the NFL has evolved the QB, LB, and TE positions have evolved with it.

Also I don't see how you can see behind rose colored glasses if you believe he is a talent that will do well at his position with a coach that is mindful for TE talent. Let's look what he did with Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph. Is that 2 800+ yard seasons I see. Oh baby!! Give me the low value on Engram that is paying dividends on value.

The only rose colored glasses I see are the ones that don't bank on Engram being a super stud on someone that learned how they can block and also learned how they can catch during tough coverage. Rose colored glasses are the ones that potentially drafted OJ Howard in the 1st that people can buy for less now vs the wonderful Engram owners that believed.
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QB: Luck, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Guice, Ekeler
WR: Diggs, C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Gronk, Burton, Goedert
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax, Chiefs

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby CK_ » Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:19 am

titans44 wrote: Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:48 pm According to Fantasy Pros "Evan Engram lined up in the slot just 25.4 percent of the time, the 2nd lowest mark among TEs."

He was used poorly under the old staff and even if the new regime wants to use him as a blocker, it most likely won't be any more than he was this past year. Also, it's on record that he knew he needed to work on his blocking, and got plenty of opportunity to do so. From what i saw he really took that to heart and improved. He was put into a situation he wasn't accustom too and still did pretty darn well.

Oh man I love you. Someone who did their research on the player. BAZINGA BABY!!!
14 Team .5 PPR Return yards
QB: Luck, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Guice, Ekeler
WR: Diggs, C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Gronk, Burton, Goedert
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax, Chiefs

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby sloth8u » Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:38 am

JFever wrote: Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:00 pm My gut says 80-85 is realistic. That would still be nice and could lead to 50-60 rec for 600-800 yds. Which would fit into how Shurmer uses TE that can block and catch. Just no where near anything worth a 1.03 draft pic in anything other than a two TE league.
Those are the exact numbers some are looking at and assigning the 2 or 3 value. Evidence by use of the term elite and stud, to go along with his 11.5 ppg and 1 game of 20+ pts.

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Jfever » Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:11 am

First, I'm not trying to rain on your little EE parade guys. But, lets make a real honest attempt at being objective. You guys should try it. Do you #1 think that an 800 yd 60 ish reception TE is worth the 1.03? If so, fine. I don't. #2, Do you really, honestly think his production will not take a dip with a new system that includes a coach that likely will not emphasize or run his offense through the TE? #3, We are VERY much ignoring the fact that his production was DIRECTLY tied to a lack of talent / health at ALL other offensive positions - ** including a mediocre rb corp and a wr corp that was without their #1, #2, AND #3 options. I mean really..... wtf? ARE we not looking at the same team here? Again, I'm not ripping on or insinuating that Engram isn't talented. But, talent doesn't necessarily equal fantasy production or elite fantasy production, and it certainly doesn't mean he should be worth an early first. If you own him and love him, hold. If your buying, I certainly would recommend not overspending based off of an expectation of last years production, as he is likely to regress Something after the 1.06 would be more realistic. Prob splitting hairs a bit. I still think he's worth a mid to late 1st, just not an early 1st. AND, finally. WHY the hell would someone come to any type of conclusion on OJ Howard at this point in time? This is dynasty, No one would sell OJ at a discount at this point in time if they took him at a mid 1st. Historically the TE position takes some time to settle out.... does it not?

NO biases in this thread AT ALL!!!!!
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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:25 am

I shared the targets list of what would be a TE1 for the past 3 years, based on targets, just to see if it would shed some light on the discussion. At the very least it gives an idea of the range of targets Engram can expect to get - since I assume most people figure he is a lock for at least 75 targets. Obviously if he gets less than last year, the question will be whether or not he can improve his efficiency per target.

Apart from that, I do think 115 is likely to be a high mark, but it is also interesting to note that Shurmur, if the situation calls for it, is willing to use the TE (ie Rudolph in 2016). If I had to predict sight unseen I would expect 85-90 targets with an uptick to 100-110 as best case scenario.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby sloth8u » Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:42 am

gronk, reed, walker....the only guys in the last 3 years to average over 16 pts a game in ppr for a season according to mfl. if we wanted to lower the standard of "elite"...we could say 15 pts, and include kelce last year.

perhaps the approach some are taking is that engram will consistently be a te1, and the 2 or 3 is worth that to them?

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Jfever » Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:20 am

I get that Sloth. It makes sense. It just seems that some things are being slightly pushed to the side in order to go about the projection of production and value (at least short term). OBJ if healthy, should receive 150-160 targets. First, do we / can we agree on that? OBJ's target should be close to 30% of teams total attempts as we should expect around 500 pass attempts. Then, lets assume that Shurmer does like including his rb's into his passing game, so, 60-80 targets there most likely. Then, we must assume that Shepard will be used to some degree and B.Marshall is still under contract and most likely going to be healthy. So...... Ultimately this simply means that Engram is not going to surpass 100 targets. He just isn't... People. Just look at the numbers. Shurmer's offense will be close to balanced between running and passing. How many offensive snaps are you forecasting in order to make sense of your prognostications for Engram? So, we are clear, when Rudolph had over 100 targets in 2016, what was the condition of their O-line? The Vikings were a hot mess that year. It was UGLY. REAL ugly. That was an injury plagued season for most offensive weapons in Mn, it was before Thelien blew up. It was before Diggs was somewhat consistent. Shurmer used Rudolph like he did because - he had to and, even so, they didn't win with that approach. C'mon folks. Maybe I'm way off. Maybe, I'm just wrong. If so, it isn't the first time and it won't be the last.

But, to me looking at this from the outside, This doesn't seem complicated. 80 ish targets, 800 yds, 50-60 rec seems to be a logical ceiling in this case. If that is what the 1.03 is valued at for some of you, that is fair. Maybe, just maybe, all the NYG starting wr corp will get hurt again. Maybe. Maybe, Shurmer won't count on Engram to block.
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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby sloth8u » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:22 am

JFever wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:20 am I get that Sloth. It makes sense. It just seems that some things are being slightly pushed to the side in order to go about the projection of production and value (at least short term).
owners are salivating and buyers are too...engram has enormous talent...how this plays out will be interesting. paying top value for a guy that hasnt reached top value is not the way that i prefer to play the game :D
JFever wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:20 amBut, to me looking at this from the outside, This doesn't seem complicated. 80 ish targets, 800 yds, 50-60 rec seems to be a logical ceiling in this case. If that is what the 1.03 is valued at for some of you, that is fair. Maybe, just maybe, all the NYG starting wr corp will get hurt again. Maybe. Maybe, Shurmer won't count on Engram to block.
simply..... most dont see your "logical ceiling" right now. they see 100+ 75, and 10. hence the love here. i challenge those that are that optimistic.....to go out and find it...0r rank it unobtainable

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Re: Evan Engram value?

Postby Jfever » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:35 am

Well. I get your point here. But, to those that are projecting Engram to receive 100 targets, they have to somehow figure out how to explain that leap. Again, we should be looking at around 500 ish pass attempts - give or take 30-50. OBJ should get 150+ targets, rb's should get 80-100 targets. So... that is half. Now, if Engram gets a 100 total targets. That leaves a total of about 150-200 targets for all other wr and Te options. It just doesn't add up. Talent sure. but.... man - some rose colored glasses for sure. Particularly so when some are basing their logic on comparing Engram to other TE from his class, assuming that the others suck and he is elite.

It is just too early to make that leap of faith with any confidence if you take all variables into consideration.
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* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.


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