SF start-up strat w/ update and draft link

[pokerface40]

^^^^^ Very nice post Madadamus, bravo.

[Phaded]

Do not undervalue Quarterbacks - as many players in your league will do so if they have not played in a Superflex before.
If you notice that quarterbacks are not being taken, do not overlook a top tier Quarterback in hopes you'll be able to get a "good one" next round. All leagues are different - but the quarterbacks will come off the board in runs. Once a few people start taking them, others will hop on board.

You'll have that one guy be like "oh I can get one next round, there's still great wide receivers on the board; I'll take the receiver" - and then they'll end up with trash at quarterback. They'll then try to send you offers that are better suited for a 1QB league feeling like a good offer and be unhappy when you won't take a WR2 for a QB2. Do not be that guy because it will be very hard to recover from not having a quarterback.

Some will be tempted to not adjust and refuse to take quarterbacks - but a common theme will soon emerge. The teams that are consistently on top have two excellent quarterback options and often have a pretty good third to cover for things like injuries. The teams that are often at the bottom will tend to overlook the quarterback position and often employ a strategy best suited for a one-QB league.

Obviously you still need a strong roster overall and having 2 great quarterbacks will mean nothing if the rest of your rosters suck - but an elite quarterback has arguably the most sustainable job in the NFL. The foundation will be those quarterbacks. If you are so inclined to not get 2 quarterbacks in the first couple rounds, at least get one. If you don't - you will regret it.

We are entering our 4th year and the teams that are consistently making the playoffs or finishing the year strong are the ones in an excellent QB situation.

[Ghosted]

All really good stuff, and is a lot to chew on, so thanks guys. As for league specifics, it's not all that unique, but there are a few considerations. It's as follows:

12 team QB | RB (1) | WR (3) | TE (1) | SF (1) | Flex (2)
* may start up to: 4 RB's, 6 WR's, 3 TE's
** () indicates minimum starting spots allocated per position

The point system is pretty simplistic, too. Rushing and receiving stats are standard for PPR. For QB's, it's:

5 point-per-TD (ALL TD's are worth 5 points, regardless of position)
.04 points-per-yard passing
1 point-per-8-completions
-1 point-per-interception (seems like it groups the field together a little more; not sure how I like that)

I haven't tracked the positional variance throughout multiple seasons yet, but this year it would have looked like this:

QB 1 - Wilson - 429 points - 34% increase from QB 12, 70% increase from QB 24
QB 12 - Goff - 321 points - 27% increase from QB 24
QB 24 - Brissett - 252 points

RB 1 - Gurley - 387 points - 54% increase from RB 12, 133% increase from RB 24
RB 12 - Duke J - 212 points - 28% increase from RB 24
RB 24 - Coleman - 166 points

WR 1 - Brown - 301 points - 39% increase from WR 12, 66% increase from WR 24 (a little skewed due to injury).
WR 12 - Baldwin - 216 points - 19% increase from WR 24
WR 24 - D. Bryant - 181 points

It's just a snapshot, but interesting none-the-less. Obviously dominate RB's provide the greatest advantage, but they also have the greatest variance from year-to-year (not breaking news here - we've always known that). QB's definitely are the safest asset to project, and do appear to provide a tangible advantage, as well. This particular league's settings mirror another league that I'm in that has 8 years worth of data, so I'm going to pull those numbers and see if it paints a more concrete picture; but this definitely supports everything that you guys have been saying.

[wingnutty]

I agree with all this; take 2 good QB's and grab others on the cheap when possible. My opinion is the QB values, even for non-flashy guys like Dalton, Tyrod, Flacco, A. Smith hold value well and are probably safe bets to rise in value during the season which make them strong tradable assets if necessary.

But really SF is just like any league in that during the draft different strategies will emerge and you have to zig when others are sagging. If rookie pics are going cheap, get um...if QBs are going cheap, get um...

On good idea to always do is go into your MFL league and check out previous years player stats to get an idea how the different positions score in relation to each other. Are 8 of the top 12 players RBs? How many WRs are in the top 64 players? Get an idea on those ratios and it gives you good data on how valuable each position is in relation to the risk and longevity of each position.

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

I'm in quite a few superflex leagues and normally advocate grabbing QBs early. However, in two startups this past summer I took a different approach to see how it would work out.

The first one, I punted year one and accumulated picks for the future while targeting QBs like Bradford, Flacco, Smith later on (landed the first two). That league is a 16 team equivalent superflex, so QBs are huge. Still, I didn't end up making my first pick until 3.10 (Hilton). Despite the approach, I ended up finishing about mid-league while accumulating 4 firsts, 6 seconds, 4 thirds, 4 fourths, and a fifth. Which should be enough to either trade for or draft some QBs (I do think Bradford will be back to a starter role and maybe Flacco won't suck so bad).

The other league, I tried to go win-now while waiting on QB (14 team equivalent superflex). Waited and grabbed Smith, Hoyer, and Siemian as my QBs. Obviously the latter two didn't last as starters, but waiting allowed me to grab enough studs (also traded away my '18/19 firsts) that I felt comfortable rolling out a non-QB in the superflex spot. Ended up losing out in the semi-finals with a core of Smith, Bell, McCoy, Julio, Alshon, Hilton (meh this year), Walker (with some solid depth for the league size to include McKinnon, Gore/Mack, Morris, Funchess, Eifert[?]).

All that said, I would say to just remain flexible during the draft and take advantage of how it plays out. If people start trading up like crazy and the opportunity arises to accumulate picks and build for next year, do that. If QBs are flying off the board, grab some studs at the other positions instead of panicking and grabbing Flacco, etc early. But if a QB like Rodgers is still sitting there at the end of the first, grab him and then another stud QB at the turn and set it/forget it.

[Phaded]

The point system is pretty simplistic, too. Rushing and receiving stats are standard for PPR. For QB's, it's:

5 point-per-TD (ALL TD's are worth 5 points, regardless of position)
.04 points-per-yard passing
1 point-per-8-completions
-1 point-per-interception (seems like it groups the field together a little more; not sure how I like that)

Wow.
With that scoring system; I think QBs get even more of a bump.

Their TDs being worth the same amount of points as other positions is HUGE; especially since touchdowns happen much more frequently for the quarterback position. The yardage is pretty similar.

The points per completion is an interesting little caveat that will give bonuses to pass heavy quarterbacks (Rodgers, Stafford, etc.)

The -1 point per interception is huge (I personally hate seeing such a low deduction for interceptions); but it will REALLY help the turnover prone quarterbacks - think guys like Andrew Luck & Jameis Winston, for example.

I think QBs are even more valuable in this format than I previously mentioned.

[Ghosted]

The point system is pretty simplistic, too. Rushing and receiving stats are standard for PPR. For QB's, it's:

5 point-per-TD (ALL TD's are worth 5 points, regardless of position)
.04 points-per-yard passing
1 point-per-8-completions
-1 point-per-interception (seems like it groups the field together a little more; not sure how I like that)

Wow.
With that scoring system; I think QBs get even more of a bump.

Their TDs being worth the same amount of points as other positions is HUGE; especially since touchdowns happen much more frequently for the quarterback position. The yardage is pretty similar.

The points per completion is an interesting little caveat that will give bonuses to pass heavy quarterbacks (Rodgers, Stafford, etc.)

The -1 point per interception is huge (I personally hate seeing such a low deduction for interceptions); but it will REALLY help the turnover prone quarterbacks - think guys like Andrew Luck & Jameis Winston, for example.

I think QBs are even more valuable in this format than I previously mentioned.

Yeah man, I agree. I start at 1.6 so I guess it just depends on how it flows for me. There's some high upside guys that I think I could wait on, but if you wait too long, you seem to be screwed.

The draft starts when MFL rolls over for '18, so I'll drop a link then so whoever wants to follow along for fun can.

[knotts4372]

i was about to say to not go super all out on qb before you said about the scoring but now its an absolute must. i love superflx and 2 qb leagues cause they give qbs value again but that scoring just over values them big time imo

[SnidelyWhiplash]

I agree with the "load up on qbs" strategy. They will never be as cheap as they will be during a startup. I would try to come out of the draft with 4 starters.

[joeday]

I have done 3 superflex leagues over the years...the one where I didn't go QB/QB back to back in the 1st/2nd it took me (no joke) 5 years to get out of the cellar. In the two where I did go QB/QB in the 1st/2nd I never missed the playoffs. Unless QB scoring is deflated there is no reason to not pick 2 QBs in the first 2-3 rounds (of course barring OBJ falling to pick 12 or something like that).

[Martpe]

This was a 10 team league. With the team in sig I did it little different from most here (start-up two year back). I took R Wilson as a young QB with pick 6 or 7. Maybe a only 2nd best on the board of the QBs but little younger. Then I used the next couple of rounds to bring in RBs and WRs, while most continue with QBs. BigBen fell in draft due to age so I took him and same happened with Eli (Alex smith and similar guys did too). Semi year 1 and Champ Year 2.

If I where to draft today I would take a guy like Wentz early and the draft the Gurleys, Evans, ABs, Freeman, MTs of the world... then in round 6ish go QB again... Lots of vets; Brady, Rivers, BigB, Brees... some will fall

[Ghosted]

Link to the draft if anyone is interested in following an early one w/ rookies:

https://www78.myfantasyleague.com/2018/ ... 35370&O=17

[Phaded]

Just looking at the first round; I am in complete shock.

You managed to get Rodgers and Luck. Wow. Few years ago they went 1st & 2nd overall in my Superflex.

[Ghosted]

Interesting for sure. I'm curious to how far Luck would have fallen with all of this (highly subjective) news that's been floating around lately.

[Phaded]

There is a lot about this draft I cannot believe. 8 players going before Wilson is right up there.

Are there a lot of new Superflex owners in this league?