will fullers value?

[btv802]

I'm just going to acknowledge the fact there wasn't a better stack to have than Watson to Fuller before Watson went out..

Only Hopkins & AB scored more PPR points during that week 4-8 stretch.

[Johnny Canuck]

I did some digging on Fuller for a different thread but it's relevant so thought I'd share here.

warning long post

Fuller consistently gets misvalued in the dynasty community, but he's a very solid WR that I fully expect to blow up next yr. Here's why...

- Did you know that Fuller was the WR 22 this year in ppg, and that was with Watson for only 4 games.

- In standard leagues, if we look at Fuller's games with Watson. Fuller was the WR 1 in ppg with 17.7 ppg. For Reference, Hopkins ppg in games with Watson worked out to 15.2.

- Now I assume that most ppl would expect 15.2 ppg for Hopkins, seems reasonable for a top 5 WR. I also assume that most ppl would attribute Fuller's success in these games to an unsustainable TD rate (which it was to a degree). But if we dive into their opportunities to acquire yardage and TDs in each game it starts to look like less and less that the Fuller/Watson chemistry was a total fluke.

So what is the actual opportunity difference between Hopkins and Fuller, are they really THAT far apart. Or is Hopkins a top 5 WR, while Fuller could be a top 15 WR.

We all agree that Hopkins is a stud, so if we use him as our measuring stick, it would be nice to see how Fuller stacks up, so let's break down their opportunity.

Let's compare the usage of Hopkins and Fuller in weeks 4, 5, 6 & 8, as these are the only weeks when both WRs are on the field with Watson under centre.

Target Volume:
- Hopkins def commands most targets, almost double in fact. Hopkins had a total of 39 targets, while Fuller had 22.

Average Depth of Target (aDOT):
- Hopkins aDOT was 13.4, While Fuller had an aDOT of 21.7

Air Yards:
- Hopkins had 524 air yards (131 air yards/game), Fuller had 477 air yards (119.25 air yards/game).
- Funny thing is Fuller actually had more air yards than Hopkins on a game by game basis.

Here's the break down for all you none believers:
- Week 4: Hopkins 97 air yards. Fuller 100 air yards.
- Week 5: Hopkins 221 air yards. Fuller 63 air yards.
- Week 6: Hopkins 34 air yards. Fuller 105 air yards.
- Week 8: Hopkins 172 air yards. Fuller 209 air yards.

Red Zone Targets:
- Hopkins had 5 red zone targets over those 4 games, while Fuller had 4 red zone targets.

Summary
Hopkins receives more overall volume, but these are more short and intermediate routes. Hopkins also has a higher potential to become a target/yardage vacuum in the odd game as evident by week 5. BUT Fullers targets are almost twice the depth that Hopkins receives which somewhat makes up for the decrease in overall volume. Also Fuller and Hopkins are almost equal in the overall yardage opportunity available to them evident by the weekly air yard breakdown (aside from the odd Hopkins blow up game). Redzone targets are almost equal as well, with Hopkins slightly edging Fuller by 1 target.

Now everyone agrees that Hopkins is a stud correct? So if Fuller's numbers/opportunity are very similar to Hopkins when playing with their longterm QB, what would that make Fuller...maybe not a top 5 stud, but a very good WR (12-20) is easily within his grasp.

*Also, just incase anyone is curious, Hopkins had a 55% catch rate, while Fuller had a 56% catch rate.

[btv802]

Nice post. If Watson is real he's going to be able to support both Hopkins and Fuller. Without Watson we know Fuller is basically useless for fantasy. I think a realistic ceiling for a healthy Fuller with a healthy Watson could look something like what Brandin Cooks did in New England this year. Low target volume but high efficiency. Admittedly tough to rely on as a week to week starter, but as a flex guy can win you weeks.

FWIW in terms of ADP...seems like his stock is kinda hot right now. February ADP pegged Fuller in between Nick Chubb (1.05) & Ronald Jones (1.06). I'm not sure his actual trade value is quite there yet based on my talks with other owners.

P.S. Side note, it was weird to see Fuller ahead of Dez in ADP.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I agree with the breakdown and that Fuller could be very good, but my hesitation stems from the drops. 2017 Fuller was very good, but can he keep that up? I just remember watching a few of his ugly, ugly drops from prior seasons...left a bad taste in my mouth.

[Phaded]

I said in a post in Team Advice that I believe next year - we could see both Hopkins & Fuller be top 15 WRs in fantasy.
I like Fuller a lot - unfortunately the owner that has him in my one league literally never trades.