Difference of opinion: how do you avoid groupthink bias?

[CK_]

In summation trust yourself more than anyone else !

This pretty much sums it up for me. My biggest mistakes in dynasty were when I went on the advice of others and against my own judgment. If I do have a question, I typically send it to a couple of people in whom I have great confidence rather than post globally. I would never use Facebook or Twitter but that is really more based on my general opinion of both sources.

X2 on both accounts for me as well.

My only difference is I like using Twitter for the actual groupthink when making trades. A lot of the people in my league are very tight knit and introverted to a degree so to pry them into a trade I have to give them a little push with where the overall value of a player is sitting.

[oban14]

An NFL team sitting at pick 1.1 could potentially trade back to pick 1.32 and acquire 5-6 future first round picks and several picks in later rounds. Do it again the next year, and the next, and then all of a sudden you're the GM of a team with 3-4 first round picks every year for the next five years. Meanwhile, yes those 1.1 picks could have been Andrew Luck, or JaMarcus Russell, or anyone in between. It would be hard to NOT win a super bowl and NOT crush every draft with that many picks.

Two things here:
A. This is not the scenario you started with. Trading picks and that uncertainty is different than trading a bona fide stud. Not saying trading an an aging stud before his decline isn't a solid strategy, but I think the amount of times you get the timing right is 50/50, so why take the chance. For every Shaun Alexander example there is a Tom Brady or Larry Fitzgerald example.

B. The Cleveland Browns just did this scenario and their GM got fired and they have missed out on drafting a franchise QB in Wentz, so there is that.

Yes, just saying that it's another way of building for the future. I think that Cleveland GM handled the drafts very well even though they missed on Wentz, he could have been a bust like every other first round QB they've taken. And the new GM will have a ton of picks to play with. If I were a GM of an NFL team with pick 1.1, I'd probably find the top 8-12 guys I like and trade down to pick 8 or 12, wherever the last one will be.

I always try to trade players a year too early. 29 years old for WRs, 28 for RBs. My broader point is that no one is untouchable. I will gladly trade you Antonio Brown, or Gurley, or Zeke, or anyone else for the right price. I think this is a great time to trade Antonio Brown, but of course it depends on what you're getting back.

[jman3134]

Strongly disagree on AB. If LeVeon leaves they only throw more. And Ben isn't retiring.

[heyfeefellskee]

Strongly disagree on AB. If LeVeon leaves they only throw more. And Ben isn't retiring.

I'm not even sure they "throw more" if Le'Veon leaves.

[oban14]

AB will turn 30 in July. I'm not saying he isn't great, I'm not saying he won't have a great year next year. I'm just saying if you want to get the most value you can get for him, this would be a great time to trade him.

I personally think he takes a step back next year and falls off a cliff within the following 2 years. If my premise is right, think of him as a solid WR1 for one year that becomes worthless in 3.

And by all means, I've been wrong before, if he's still an all-pro at 32 please call me out.