Using your rookie picks vs. trading them for proven players

[Crazylegs]

Since we are into the season of studying rookies, and building rookie hype, I thought it would be fun to discuss the different team building philosophies of using your rookie picks vs. trading them for proven assets.

I am sure everyone is aware by this time that rookie picks have a fairly high bust rate, I believe approx 50% (on avg.) even in the first round. It obviously gets worse from there. While that sounds grim, if you hit on say a David Johnson or an Alvin Kamara in the 2nd round that is a huge value boost for your team, and acquiring a building block player for your team at a very low cost (as opposed to what you would have to pay later to acquire this type of player) is huge.

This subject covers risk tolerance, team building philosophy, your belief in yourself as a talent evaluator, along with many other topics. Where do people fall in terms of their philosophy on this subject?

[Valhalla]

I hoard future picks for a few simple reasons. They don't consume roster space. They cost no contract dollars (in any league I've been a part of). They nearly ALWAYS rise in value over time. They are an easy enticement to add to a trade as a currency that EVERYONE wants, thus are the best/most flexible trade assets you can attain.
I am fairly confident in my drafting abilities, but everyone makes mistakes. I am entirely open to selling picks for proven production. I'm even more open to selling late firsts or early seconds for future firsts, gambling that they will not also be late. Picks reliably rise in value...up until the pick is made...then the price of that asset is lower than the price of the pick itself for most of the owners in the league (because everyone wants someone different). If you aren't really in love with any prospect at your pick...you might as well sell for a future pick (keep your roster space) or trade for a vet that you DO want.

[sloth8u]

Since we are into the season of studying rookies, and building rookie hype, I thought it would be fun to discuss the different team building philosophies of using your rookie picks vs. trading them for proven assets.

this is very team dependent for me. (i own several teams). i would imagine that it holds true for most owners of multiple teams....making your question, hard to answer.

I am sure everyone is aware by this time that rookie picks have a fairly high bust rate, I believe approx 50% (on avg.) even in the first round. It obviously gets worse from there. While that sounds grim, if you hit on say a David Johnson or an Alvin Kamara in the 2nd round that is a huge value boost for your team, and acquiring a building block player for your team at a very low cost (as opposed to what you would have to pay later to acquire this type of player) is huge.

you are exactly right.....teams are "made" by the "big hit in the draft", rather than overpaying once a player hits. this topic also comes down to individual evaluation of players. and league dynamics....

id also argue that franchise's are made by buying proven talent for pennies vs "past prescedent" on the account of active owners. just the dynamics of the league.

This subject covers risk tolerance, team building philosophy, your belief in yourself as a talent evaluator, along with many other topics. Where do people fall in terms of their philosophy on this subject?
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[hockeyBjj]

I've got some fun data here

top 3 pick has a 29% bust rate, 42% "stud" rate
4-6 37% bust, 21% stud
7-9 50% bust, 8% stud
10-12 63% bust, 4% stud
second round is almost 80% flop, and only 2% chance of hitting a stud (this will change as it got skewed mightily after this year by Hunt and Kamara going 2nd round in many leagues) so there's gonna be about 2 guys in there you want. How much do you trust your drafting skill?

Myself I prefer to bundle my picks, move up, and take a sniper rifle approach to the guy that I want. Sold pick 8,9, and 2.6 to grab Mixon at pick 4.

I'm debating in my team two where I won it all, adopting a shotgun approach and trading back or even selling for multiple 19 picks and seeing what happens if I grab 7+ guys in say the second round so that maybe I get usable pieces?

While the data makes it look like you should always sell these shiny pieces for starters, at least the non top 3 or 6 picks, as Sloth said the value of the draft isn't necessarily on getting a player, it's making that amazing hit for a cheap price. Getting OBJ in 2014 for the 7-9 pick, when he's drastically higher than that now. Kamara and Hunt late 1st or even early 2nd Even getting a Zeke or Fournette

[greenbird]

I would rather trade the picks for players. Let someone else flip a coin or play the lotto. Take the money and run.

[kamihamster]

Some of this also depends on league dynamics. I have two leagues and they are polar opposite from each other. One trades like crazy, the other has about half the league willing to trade, but only if they are the clear winner, so it makes getting anything done very difficult. In the crazy trading league guys are quick to make their call on compete or rebuild, and you can make your call if you want to turn future production into present production or vice versa. In the hard to trade league, I find you either get screwed or win big if you are able to get a deal to work. It's then about how much do you trust your evaluation and gamble because it's probably going to go big one way or the other.

[Fezzik]

I just try to maximize the value of the asset, wherever/whatever it is. A lot depends on the roster: contender vs. rebuild. Early firsts I almost always try to get the best WR with that pick. Middle and late firsts, I love trading down during the draft, especially if I can pick up another pick. If I have a late first, I almost always will find a deal to trade down to 2.05-2.09 and pick up a future second a year later. I love that deal, particularly if I need RBs. I'd rather fire 2 darts at a rb than one.

[RAB]

I agree with the league dynamics comment. Every league is different. My dynasty league doesn't value picks at all. There's only 2 or 3 guys that I can make pick trades with so that limits my picks for players trades. On the flip side I am able to get picks fairly easily from the rest of them but I have to give up players. Eventually as their teams grow older they will start to realize the importance of picks. Overall I feel you need a balance so if you have a super young team it might be smart to trade this years picks for established players.

[akbfrosty]

As others have said, it's definitely team/league dependent. Various strategies should be used for various teams, and falling into one can often leave a team in a bad spot.

I enjoy this general conversation, but I do hate the labels. Rookie picks are given the "super risky" label, while proven players/vets are given an almost "risk-free" label. Sure there are rookie busts, and the names are easier to remember since they generally never produce. The vets you're trading for can also bust, and, when they do, their value tanks much more quickly than the rookie, leaving almost no chance to recoup that value.

Just from 2016 WRs, the "vets" who you expected production based on past production, whose value has fallen off the cliff...Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Jordan Matthews, Allen Hurns, Michael Floyd, Randall Cobb, John Brown, Eric Decker. There are a lot of "projection" vets/rookies whose value also has fallen...Moncrief, Treadwell, White, Perriman, DGB, Lockett, Carroo to an extent, but to act like the veteran producer is "risk-free", as I so often see, is irresponsible.

All of those guys listed were getting drafted in the top 100 for startups in August of '16, and as of this January have fallen at least 50 spots in ADP.

[btv802]

I passed on trading my 1.02 for Melvin today. Feel free to flame me.

[nathanq42]

I passed on trading my 1.02 for Melvin today. Feel free to flame me.

I dont blame you, I wouldn't either

[btv802]

I passed on trading my 1.02 for Melvin today. Feel free to flame me.

I dont blame you, I wouldn't either

It made me I have to be honest...

[JoshGordonsDealer]

I've got some fun data here

top 3 pick has a 29% bust rate, 42% "stud" rate
4-6 37% bust, 21% stud
7-9 50% bust, 8% stud
10-12 63% bust, 4% stud
second round is almost 80% flop, and only 2% chance of hitting a stud (this will change as it got skewed mightily after this year by Hunt and Kamara going 2nd round in many leagues) so there's gonna be about 2 guys in there you want. How much do you trust your drafting skill?

These numbers sound about right, but how do you get this data? What's a "stud" or a "bust?"

[Valhalla]

I've got some fun data here

top 3 pick has a 29% bust rate, 42% "stud" rate
4-6 37% bust, 21% stud
7-9 50% bust, 8% stud
10-12 63% bust, 4% stud
second round is almost 80% flop, and only 2% chance of hitting a stud (this will change as it got skewed mightily after this year by Hunt and Kamara going 2nd round in many leagues) so there's gonna be about 2 guys in there you want. How much do you trust your drafting skill?

These numbers sound about right, but how do you get this data? What's a "stud" or a "bust?"

Wondering the same...is getting a Keenan Allen in the 2nd considered a stud...or no? If based on production while healthy, yes. If based on availability, then no. What would the Tyler Eifert pick be classified as?

[JoshGordonsDealer]

I've got some fun data here

top 3 pick has a 29% bust rate, 42% "stud" rate
4-6 37% bust, 21% stud
7-9 50% bust, 8% stud
10-12 63% bust, 4% stud
second round is almost 80% flop, and only 2% chance of hitting a stud (this will change as it got skewed mightily after this year by Hunt and Kamara going 2nd round in many leagues) so there's gonna be about 2 guys in there you want. How much do you trust your drafting skill?

These numbers sound about right, but how do you get this data? What's a "stud" or a "bust?"

Wondering the same...is getting a Keenan Allen in the 2nd considered a stud...or no? If based on production while healthy, yes. If based on availability, then no. What would the Tyler Eifert pick be classified as?

Amari Cooper, Corey Davis, etc...

Edit: Hell, Trent Richardson. He had one top fantasy season.