divisional round discussion

[dm1129]

I have been a big fan of the JAX defense since very early in the season. For much of the season, it was by far the most domninating defense in the league. However, late in the season, opposing teams seem to have made adjustments to the JAX's scheme and they have not responded. As much as I would enjoy to see JAX upset NE, I really don't think it will happen. Garoppolo carved up JAX because he is smart, decisive, and has an extremely quick release to avoid the JAX pass rush. Belichick no doubt has seen this and will have similar plans for Brady. It would not surprise me if the NE RBs and Amendola have 25+ targets in this game as Brady avoids the JAX CBs. If JAX could absolutely dominate time of possession with a overpowering run game then maybe they could pull it off, but you know Belichick is going to make it his priority to take away Fournette and say 'Bortles you will have to beat us'.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I don't think this year's version of the Patriots is as solid as past teams. From my point of view, Brady's play was not as sharp as it has been in recent years, and I don't believe New England is unbeatable. Will they get past Jacksonville and move on to the Super Bowl? Likely yes, unless Jacksonville can win with defense, which as dm1129 points out has slipped a bit recently.

But the NFC was the far superior conference in 2017, and should the Vikings take care of business this weekend as I expect them to, they will present a formidable challenge. I expect the Vikings to bring home the Lombardi in a couple of weeks. The raining confetti will be purple and gold.

[Phaded]

My thing with the Vikings is that they faced a lot of easy competition during the year. I do not feel like the NFC was far superior as you suggest. I think the argument could be made that it was not even the superior conference.

The Vikings were really tested for basically the first time and for all intensive purposes they basically blew it but they got lucky on an awful defensive play. I am not even 100% convinced they will get past the Eagles. They have not been great on the road, plus they will be outdoors playing in weather they are not used to.

I think Vikings vs Eagles will be a lot more interesting for that reason too.

[James McGhee]

My thing with the Vikings is that they faced a lot of easy competition during the year. I do not feel like the NFC was far superior as you suggest. I think the argument could be made that it was not even the superior conference.

The Vikings were really tested for basically the first time and for all intensive purposes they basically blew it but they got lucky on an awful defensive play. I am not even 100% convinced they will get past the Eagles. They have not been great on the road, plus they will be outdoors playing in weather they are not used to.

I think Vikings vs Eagles will be a lot more interesting for that reason too.

The Vikings played the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Steelers, Ravens and Rams this year. They didn't win all of those games but saying they're untested is ridiculous.

And saying they're not used to 50 degree weather outside when they come from Minnesota is kind of funny. Yes they play indoors but it's not like it's 75 degrees and sunny in Minnesota all of the time. I'm pretty sure they can handle 50 degrees.

[Valhalla]

My thing with the Vikings is that they faced a lot of easy competition during the year...

According to the following link, they were about middle of the pack ("12th easiest"). The Pats were "10th easiest." http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/NF ... finish-top

The Vikings were really tested for basically the first time and for all intensive purposes they basically blew it but they got lucky on an awful defensive play.

They beat the Rams handedly. They beat the Saints earlier this year. They pitched a shutout to the Aaron Rodgers comeback playoff sleeper story. They beat the Falcons. They did lose to the Panthers in a really fluky manner, and lost to the Steelers in Keenum's first game when Bradford went down (and Keenum played AWFUL that game). I'd say they've had some tough matchups to test them. The Saints was hardly the first real team.

Also, for all intents and purposes, the Saints basically blew it but for ONE deep pass along the sidelines on 4th down. Then they blew it failing to get a first down that would have assured they were kicking the field goal with the clock expiring. Multiple attempts to make something happen, ONE sideline play that set up the field goal, then multiple failed attempts to assure zero time would be afforded to the Vikings. Again...ONE successful pass to get them in field goal range. Keenum had...two? Yep. One to Thielen and then the winner to Diggs. It was a fluke that Diggs wasn't pushed out, but he caught that with 4 seconds left and likely would have gotten out of bounds...setting up a field goal. JUST LIKE THE SAINTS.

I say all this to ask...HOW IS IT THAT THE SAINTS LAST DITCH DRIVE WAS CREDIBLE BUT THE VIKINGS DRIVE IS A FLUKE?

Also again...for all intents and purposes, the Saints didn't "basically" blow it. They DID blow it. In multiple ways.

...plus they will be outdoors playing in weather they are not used to.

I think Vikings vs Eagles will be a lot more interesting for that reason too.

I agree. Philadelphia is not an easy place to play.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I do not feel like the NFC was far superior as you suggest. I think the argument could be made that it was not even the superior conference.

The NFC won 41 of 64 interconfertnce matchups in 2017 for a .641 winning percentage.

It's not my opinion, it's a fact. The NFC dominated the AFC this year, so at least statistically, they were the superior conference.

[Friction]

Purple and gold confetti, along with a lot of Subarus driven by drunk drivers. Most importantly, a day of people not offended by everything under the sun. I mean snow.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

The Vikings were really tested for basically the first time and for all intensive purposes they basically blew it but they got lucky on an awful defensive play.

They beat the Rams handedly. They beat the Saints earlier this year. They pitched a shutout to the Aaron Rodgers comeback playoff sleeper story. They beat the Falcons. They did lose to the Panthers in a really fluky manner, and lost to the Steelers in Keenum's first game when Bradford went down (and Keenum played AWFUL that game). I'd say they've had some tough matchups to test them. The Saints was hardly the first real team.

I think MIN is a legit contender, but I would agree that some of their wins may make them seem better than they are. The LAR game was closer than the final score would indicate. The win against NO in week 1 means very little, as both teams developed a lot over the season, a lot of week 1 games are incredibly fluky as teams are getting accustomed to a real game again after the offseason. Both of the wins over GB were against Brett Hundley, not Aaron Rodgers. I'm not sure beating ATL is a huge indicator as ATL plays very inconsistently week to week, and I didn't think ATL was much of a contender this year anyway.

[Ghosted]

I don't think this year's version of the Patriots is as solid as past teams. From my point of view, Brady's play was not as sharp as it has been in recent years, and I don't believe New England is unbeatable. Will they get past Jacksonville and move on to the Super Bowl? Likely yes, unless Jacksonville can win with defense, which as dm1129 points out has slipped a bit recently.

But the NFC was the far superior conference in 2017, and should the Vikings take care of business this weekend as I expect them to, they will present a formidable challenge. I expect the Vikings to bring home the Lombardi in a couple of weeks. The raining confetti will be purple and gold.

?

His passer rating index+ is the second highest it's been in the last six years.
His Any/A+ is where it's always been.
TD% is hitting career norms, and his INT% is actually lower.
Highest PFF overall grade this year for all QB's.
Highest PFF grade for all QB's vs. pressure.
Engineering PFF's highest graded and most efficient offense.

Oh, and he's (probably) going to win another MVP.

[Phaded]

The Pats are a long term perennial contender team. The Vikings are not. Of those "challenging opponents" listed - the only road win was a 5-point win over Atlanta.

The Packers? Hundley started that game. If you are going to come at me all upset, you should at least get your facts straight. But yeah, shutting out Hundley is a real accomplishment..

The Vikings should not have advanced, bottom line and they barely have a chance at beating the Pats. The only thing playing in their favour if they do advance is that it is a home game.

Which like I said - is unfortunate since I do not want Brady to win it again, but the Vikings just do not look good enough.

[Valhalla]

...But yeah, shutting out Hundley is a real accomplishment...

Shutting out any team is an accomplishment. It's tough to hold a team to zero and it typically takes a pretty good defense to do so.

The Vikings should not have advanced, bottom line...

I can do that too.
The Saints should not have advanced, bottom line. They didn't hold a lead in the game once until 25 seconds were left on the clock, barely making it into field goal range on somewhat of a prayer of a 4th down throw. They blew their chance to get a simple first down that would have assured it was zero seconds left while their field goal sailed through. They then blew their defensive coverage, twice. They BLEW IT IN MULTIPLE WAYS. Yet...the Saints deserve it.
Get over it. The Saints lost, and rightfully so. It wasn't some non-existent pass interference call pushing the Vikings into field goal range to win the game (like the present the '09 Saints got from the refs). No officiating screw up this year. The right team is moving on.

[Shoreline Steamers]

His passer rating index+ is the second highest it's been in the last six years.
His Any/A+ is where it's always been.
TD% is hitting career norms, and his INT% is actually lower.
Highest PFF overall grade this year for all QB's.
Highest PFF grade for all QB's vs. pressure.
Engineering PFF's highest graded and most efficient offense.

Oh, and he's (probably) going to win another MVP.

I won't dispute the overall numbers. And maybe it was due to missing pieces, but weeks 13-17 he had a 6:5 TD/Int ratio and killed my fantasy season. Perhaps that's why I'm salty and unhappy with his performance this season.

[Valhalla]

I won't dispute the overall numbers. And maybe it was due to missing pieces, but weeks 13-17 he had a 6:5 TD/Int ratio and killed my fantasy season. Perhaps that's why I'm salty and unhappy with his performance this season.

If I'm not mistaken, this is two years in a row that he has cooled at the end of the season. I'm not sure if it's anything of significance.

[Ghosted]

I won't dispute the overall numbers. And maybe it was due to missing pieces, but weeks 13-17 he had a 6:5 TD/Int ratio and killed my fantasy season. Perhaps that's why I'm salty and unhappy with his performance this season.

If I'm not mistaken, this is two years in a row that he has cooled at the end of the season. I'm not sure if it's anything of significance.

Yeah, I'm not sure haha. They played Buffalo in two of those 5 games, and Pittsburgh in another. Buffalo did match up pretty well. Another was in Miami which has been some weird house of horrors for him his entire career. I don't think he's played poorly at all, though (not that you were implying that).

As for '16, the only game I remember him not playing well in was the Denver game, but they were playing everyone tough that year. I think NE ripped off like 7 or 8 wins to end the regular season, and Brady had some big games in that stretch.

[dm1129]

Brady is not the same player he was a few years ago. He has lost arm strength but makes up for it with his football intelligence(which is considerable). Additionally having Belichick makes the adjustments even more seemless. There were plenty of plays when Cooks was open deep but Brady could not get him the ball. Considering all the rumors about discord between Belichick and Kraft regarding keeping Garoppolo or Brady, it seems reasonable to believe that Belichick is also aware of the minor but perceptible decline in Brady. Considering that he let Garoppolo and Brisett go while having no long term back up plan behind a 40 year old QB and also has prepared/encouraged his coordinators to pursue HC jobs, it makes me believe Belichick is done at the end of the playoffs.