divisional round discussion

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Jfever
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Jfever » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:12 am

Jags and Vikings (if Pats get past Jags) pass rush will give Tom Brady a REAL problem to deal with. Why? Because they are tough, talented, and fundamentally solid at all 3 levels. There is a realistic chance that Brady gets sacked and hurt vs the Jags. Their pass rush IS that good. Too many on these forums think of real NFL football like fantasy. That is a mistake. REAL football, real success, real playoffs come down to defense and really - not just points scored. It's about time that N.E.'s luck in the playoff runs out. Time for the spotlight to move on.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:34 am

JFever wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:12 am Jags and Vikings (if Pats get past Jags) pass rush will give Tom Brady a REAL problem to deal with. Why? Because they are tough, talented, and fundamentally solid at all 3 levels. There is a realistic chance that Brady gets sacked and hurt vs the Jags. Their pass rush IS that good. Too many on these forums think of real NFL football like fantasy. That is a mistake. REAL football, real success, real playoffs come down to defense and really - not just points scored. It's about time that N.E.'s luck in the playoff runs out. Time for the spotlight to move on.
On paper JAX and MIN are both built to beat NE. If NE beats either/both, it will come down to three things:

1. Coaching - Can Belichick/McDaniels/Patricia find enough ways to get the ball out quick, find mismatches for Gronk and the RBs, find success in the running game, and slow down the opposing offense?
2. Execution - JAX and MIN have very fast and very physical players, particularly on defense. Can they play mistake-free games against a NE offense that can make you pay for the slightest misstep?
3. QB play - Can Brady execute despite constant pressure, and on the flip side, can Bortles/Keenum play well, avoid turning the ball over, and make plays to extend drives when they need to?
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Jfever » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:50 am

Agreed ^
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby clarion contrarion » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 pm

both those alleged awesome defenses were riddled in the respective 2nd halves sunday , any given sunday can always happen we have all watched it time and again . At this point , I am plagued by patriot fatigue just like nearly all non patriot football fans . But the simple fact is only pie in the sky analysis suggests anyone other than the pats will hoist the lombardi this season. Belichick against those 2 journeyman led offenses or the 3rd if the eagles maximize home field /weather advantage sunday. Eagles fans should be hoping for a north pole kind of day as it will be their only serious chance,IMHO.
Pats get to 20 points sunday or 2 weeks after that they win XII simple as that and keeping them under 20 ain't real easy.
Reading fevers post while the hypothesis is perhaps true , rings of just fanboy rhetoric as hoping for a brady injury is a tacit admission that if he plays his vikes have close to a zero shot.
For all non patriot football fans its on to 2018 ...... or perhaps that is just the crushed steeler fan part of me lashing out ?
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:16 pm

clarion contrarion wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 pmFor all non patriot football fans its on to 2018 ...... or perhaps that is just the crushed steeler fan part of me lashing out ?
I'd disagree. I think NE can prevail, but I wouldn't count out JAX or MIN just yet. I'd give either team at least a 1 in 3 chance of beating NE if they can execute a good game plan. I'd equate these matchups to the 2014 Super Bowl where NE barely beat SEA, although obviously Wilson >> Bortles and Keenum.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Ghosted » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:39 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:16 pm
clarion contrarion wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 pmFor all non patriot football fans its on to 2018 ...... or perhaps that is just the crushed steeler fan part of me lashing out ?
I'd disagree. I think NE can prevail, but I wouldn't count out JAX or MIN just yet. I'd give either team at least a 1 in 3 chance of beating NE if they can execute a good game plan. I'd equate these matchups to the 2014 Super Bowl where NE barely beat SEA, although obviously Wilson >> Bortles and Keenum.
I was just coming on here to post something about this. The last time I heard talks like this, Brady shredded a historically great defense for 328 and 4 td's en route to another SB MVP. Teams that can pressure with 4 AND confuse him with zones and bracket coverages can keep in close (and perhaps win), but I'd easily take Brady's side of a PayPal bet vs any of those QB's beating the Patriots in a big game (and I really don't think that's such a "homer" statement to make).
Last edited by Ghosted on Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Blackout » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:41 pm

Anyway it won't be easy for Patriots. Brady has 5 rings. Everytime, they won by less than a possession game. 20-17, 32-29, 24-21, 28-24 and 34-28. On both defeats, Giants won twice, 17-14 and 21-17.

In those tight games, Brady and Co have often the last word...If Patriots can score 28+ points, i don't see any of others follow the rythm. Pressure on Brady like Giants D-Line did, will be the key.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Fantasyfanatic11 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:55 pm

Valhalla wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:19 pm Defense can’t and shouldn’t be ignored. All these teams earned their spot. They didn’t luck into it (with maybe the exception of Foles throwing a big completion off the defenser’s knee in what should have been a boneheaded interception).
This is interesting:
Nfl defensive ranking (including all 32 teams) in points against:
Vikings #1. 15.8
Jaguars #2. 16.8
Eagles #4. 18.4
Patriots #5. 18.5

If you’re curious, #3 was the fairly underrated Chargers defense
Only the Chargers find a way to not make the playoffs with a top 5 scoring defense :wall: :wall:
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QB: Herbert
RB: A.Jones Elliott Spears Gainwell Fournette
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:02 pm

Ghosted wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:39 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:16 pm
clarion contrarion wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 pmFor all non patriot football fans its on to 2018 ...... or perhaps that is just the crushed steeler fan part of me lashing out ?
I'd disagree. I think NE can prevail, but I wouldn't count out JAX or MIN just yet. I'd give either team at least a 1 in 3 chance of beating NE if they can execute a good game plan. I'd equate these matchups to the 2014 Super Bowl where NE barely beat SEA, although obviously Wilson >> Bortles and Keenum.
I was just coming on here to post something about this. The last time I heard talks like this, Brady shredded a historically great defense for 328 and 4 td's en route to another SB MVP. Teams that can pressure with 4 AND confuse him with zones and bracket coverages can keep in close (and perhaps win), but I'd easily take Brady's side of a PayPal bet vs any of those QB's beating the Patriots in a big game (and I really don't think that's such a "homer" statement to make).
To be fair though, NE struggled to do anything until Cliff Avril left with a concussion, so JAX will have a chance to keep it a low-scoring grind-it-out kind of game. I really think it will come down to Bortles, because you know Belichick will do everything possible to stop Fournette and challenge Bortles to win the game. If MIN whiffs, I think PHI gets dominated. If MIN wins, I think NE will have trouble against MIN (especially with them essentially playing at home) and would say it's anyone's game in the Super Bowl.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Friction » Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:15 pm

Ghosted wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:39 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:16 pm
clarion contrarion wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 pmFor all non patriot football fans its on to 2018 ...... or perhaps that is just the crushed steeler fan part of me lashing out ?
I'd disagree. I think NE can prevail, but I wouldn't count out JAX or MIN just yet. I'd give either team at least a 1 in 3 chance of beating NE if they can execute a good game plan. I'd equate these matchups to the 2014 Super Bowl where NE barely beat SEA, although obviously Wilson >> Bortles and Keenum.
I was just coming on here to post something about this. The last time I heard talks like this, Brady shredded a historically great defense for 328 and 4 td's en route to another SB MVP. Teams that can pressure with 4 AND confuse him with zones and bracket coverages can keep in close (and perhaps win), but I'd easily take Brady's side of a PayPal bet vs any of those QB's beating the Patriots in a big game (and I really don't think that's such a "homer" statement to make).
Now you are talking! Heck, I will bet the other side, not because I believe in it, but because I am a gambling degenerate. I hate betting against Brady, but the 1st NYG loss is easily my largest SB profit. NYG +11, NYG ML/ Under paraly, 1st td scored. And two huge prop bets, I know one was a NYG WR's yardage (Hilliard?) the other was a bet against Moss.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Ghosted » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:17 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:02 pm
Ghosted wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:39 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:16 pm
I'd disagree. I think NE can prevail, but I wouldn't count out JAX or MIN just yet. I'd give either team at least a 1 in 3 chance of beating NE if they can execute a good game plan. I'd equate these matchups to the 2014 Super Bowl where NE barely beat SEA, although obviously Wilson >> Bortles and Keenum.
I was just coming on here to post something about this. The last time I heard talks like this, Brady shredded a historically great defense for 328 and 4 td's en route to another SB MVP. Teams that can pressure with 4 AND confuse him with zones and bracket coverages can keep in close (and perhaps win), but I'd easily take Brady's side of a PayPal bet vs any of those QB's beating the Patriots in a big game (and I really don't think that's such a "homer" statement to make).
To be fair though, NE struggled to do anything until Cliff Avril left with a concussion, so JAX will have a chance to keep it a low-scoring grind-it-out kind of game. I really think it will come down to Bortles, because you know Belichick will do everything possible to stop Fournette and challenge Bortles to win the game. If MIN whiffs, I think PHI gets dominated. If MIN wins, I think NE will have trouble against MIN (especially with them essentially playing at home) and would say it's anyone's game in the Super Bowl.
I don't think it had much to do with Avril / Lane going out, honestly. Hard to quantify the exact impact, but what the Patriots do with second half adjustments is unlike anything else I've ever seen. They started negating the rush with Vereen and Edelman choice-routes.

I actually think the key is NE's defense, particularly it's pass rush. It was a big achilles heal early in the season, which is why they were gutted the first 4 weeks. Last week was an extreme anomaly, but it has improved thanks to the scheme Patricia has put together from spare parts (outside of Flowers and Brown). If Branch is healthy I don't think they'll have much of a problem shutting the run down, either.

And yes, the Vikings present a very unique challenge. I definitely didn't want to see them advance, but what a great game for Viking fans! I certainly wouldn't enjoy the Patriots getting knocked out, but if they did that would be a cool thing to see if they could win it at home.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Jfever » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:43 pm

clarion contrarion wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 pm both those alleged awesome defenses were riddled in the respective 2nd halves sunday , any given sunday can always happen we have all watched it time and again . At this point , I am plagued by patriot fatigue just like nearly all non patriot football fans . But the simple fact is only pie in the sky analysis suggests anyone other than the pats will hoist the lombardi this season. Belichick against those 2 journeyman led offenses or the 3rd if the eagles maximize home field /weather advantage sunday. Eagles fans should be hoping for a north pole kind of day as it will be their only serious chance,IMHO.
Pats get to 20 points sunday or 2 weeks after that they win XII simple as that and keeping them under 20 ain't real easy.
Reading fevers post while the hypothesis is perhaps true , rings of just fanboy rhetoric as hoping for a brady injury is a tacit admission that if he plays his vikes have close to a zero shot.
For all non patriot football fans its on to 2018 ...... or perhaps that is just the crushed steeler fan part of me lashing out ?
Huh?

If Brady plays vs the Vikings - according to you - The Vikings have close to zero shot? Wow. Even as a Vikings fan, And a very hopeful and biased one at that, I still think I can objectively look at the match up and say that the Vikings have the best shot out of the remaining teams to unseat N.E.

I find your take slightly absurd. (The pie in the sky comment is ridiculous to be honest). Also, weather at Phili next week looks to be mid 50's with slight chance of drizzle. - Not anything Mn would have trouble dealing with at all.... Just saying.... And, looking at rosters, if it were real cold (which it isn't forecasted to be) wouldn't it also help Minnesota's defense just as much? Didn't Foles play Arizona State? But, to each their own.

Bottom line is - Jacksonville's defense is going to give NE all they can handle. Brady will likely get hit. Brady is 40 and not mobile. With pressure up front, good coverage linebackers, corners, and safeties... the Jags present a very real threat that you CC are minimizing. Jacksonville is strong up front & They have a defense very very similar to the Vikings. They can cover and get pressure without blitzing. I'm not at all wishing for an injury. Nor am I scared. In order to be the best, someone has to beat the best. I'm only looking at this match up without over-weighing the results of previous results and unrelated games. Experience is one thing and I don't want to over look it. But, experience doesn't win games. Out playing your opponent wins games. = at some point (possibly this year) this NE reign will end.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Phaded » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:54 am

The Jags allowed 40+ against the Steelers AND they won the turnover battle. As much as I would love to see the Jags beat the Pats; I think the odds are near impossible.

In regards to the winner of the Vikes/Eagles (not convinced it will be the Vikes); I cannot see either of them giving the Pats too difficult a time. Even if they get down early, we have seen what can happen like when they beat the Falcons.

There is not a better coached team in the NFL. I do not want the Pats to win it all again - but I have a hard time believing it will not happen.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Valhalla » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:04 am

Phaded wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:54 am The Jags allowed 40+ against the Steelers AND they won the turnover battle. As much as I would love to see the Jags beat the Pats; I think the odds are near impossible.

In regards to the winner of the Vikes/Eagles (not convinced it will be the Vikes); I cannot see either of them giving the Pats too difficult a time. Even if they get down early, we have seen what can happen like when they beat the Falcons.

There is not a better coached team in the NFL. I do not want the Pats to win it all again - but I have a hard time believing it will not happen.
Don't mis-remember the Pats Falcons game like the majority of fans and the media does. It's presented as a game that the Falcons had in the bag (they did), and then the Patriots just imposed their will and stomped the Falcons with a miraculous offensive surge and Brady's brilliant play (that's debatable and even Brady disagrees with this). It WAS the Pats imposing their will, and it WAS a miraculous offensive surge...but Brady made PLENTY of mistakes that should have cost his team the game during that miraculous comeback. There were multiple easy interception balls thrown...that the Falcons DBs just couldn't catch. Brady threw some great balls. He threw some game losers. The Falcons failed to capitalize on multiple game losers.

I'm not saying the Pats will fall behind like that again...but if they did, I think it's a HUGE flaw in memory to presume the Pats have it in them again to just stomp all over teams offensively. Brady got VERY aggressive (he had to) and made many mistakes. The Pats payed for NONE of those mistakes so the aggressive nature worked. Do you think it's likely (IF the Pats need to be super aggressive like that again) that the defensive teams remaining will continuously fail to capitalize? I don't.

All I'm saying is, the Pats probably won't fall behind in a big deficit again this year...but it's NOT a gimme that they can explode back into the game (mistake free) against these defenses.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby James McGhee » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:18 am

Valhalla wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:04 am
Phaded wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:54 am The Jags allowed 40+ against the Steelers AND they won the turnover battle. As much as I would love to see the Jags beat the Pats; I think the odds are near impossible.

In regards to the winner of the Vikes/Eagles (not convinced it will be the Vikes); I cannot see either of them giving the Pats too difficult a time. Even if they get down early, we have seen what can happen like when they beat the Falcons.

There is not a better coached team in the NFL. I do not want the Pats to win it all again - but I have a hard time believing it will not happen.
Don't mis-remember the Pats Falcons game like the majority of fans and the media does. It's presented as a game that the Falcons had in the bag (they did), and then the Patriots just imposed their will and stomped the Falcons with a miraculous offensive surge and Brady's brilliant play (that's debatable and even Brady disagrees with this). It WAS the Pats imposing their will, and it WAS a miraculous offensive surge...but Brady made PLENTY of mistakes that should have cost his team the game during that miraculous comeback. There were multiple easy interception balls thrown...that the Falcons DBs just couldn't catch. Brady threw some great balls. He threw some game losers. The Falcons failed to capitalize on multiple game losers.

I'm not saying the Pats will fall behind like that again...but if they did, I think it's a HUGE flaw in memory to presume the Pats have it in them again to just stomp all over teams offensively. Brady got VERY aggressive (he had to) and made many mistakes. The Pats payed for NONE of those mistakes so the aggressive nature worked. Do you think it's likely (IF the Pats need to be super aggressive like that again) that the defensive teams remaining will continuously fail to capitalize? I don't.

All I'm saying is, the Pats probably won't fall behind in a big deficit again this year...but it's NOT a gimme that they can explode back into the game (mistake free) against these defenses.
Both of these defenses allowed a large amount of points in the second half propelling their opponent back into the game. It'd be a mistake to assume the Patriots couldn't do the same. These defenses were not as dominant after the half and the Patriots make second half adjustments better than anyone.
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