divisional round discussion

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Ghosted
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Ghosted » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:31 pm

JFever wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:36 pm
Ghosted wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:52 am I agree that Jacksonville is formidable on defense, but that seems to be where the conversation is being dominated. The fact is, Bortles still has to make enough plays to actually win an AFC championship game, on the road against BB. I'm no more "nervous" as a NE fan than I have been in past AFC championship games, and was definitely more nervous for every time they tilted off against Peyton. Probably more similar to the Pats - Ravens playoff matchups, but the Ravens were much more experienced so they probably worried me more. Sure, Jacksonville can win, but if I was a fan of each 4 remaining teams, NE would be who I had the least amount concern over.

Do you think perhaps that your call here has something to do with past N.E. teams? I'm quite sure that due to the recent dominance of the Patriot organization has a ton to do with how some are looking at this matchup. Now, I don't disagree with anyone thinking that N.E. has the best chance to win out of the 4 remaining playoff teams. I myself lean toward the defensively oriented teams when it comes to championship chances this year. Heck, that Patriot organization is on a historic / never seen before in any professional sport - streak of success. BB is without a doubt the most successful head coach of all time as it pertains to super bowl championships. He is brilliant. But..... on the other side of the field is a coach / consultant by the name of Tom Coughlin. For the record.... Coughlin is responsible for 2 Bill Belichick super bowl losses. I'm not dismissing that.

Now, all past performances aside. Only looking at rosters, strengths, weaknesses, coaches, OC, DC, assistants, etc. I see this as much more of a question than if we looked at just the N.E. Patriots organization and their recent playoff record vs the Jacksonville Jaguars organization and their recent history.

I agree with your point that Bortles will still have to lead his offense, pick up first downs, protect the ball, kill time, etc. No doubt there. It does seem to me though that the Patriot defense is susceptible to the run. Bortles can run. LF can run. As long as Bortles doesn't turn the ball over and give up good field position to Brady, I see it as likely that Jacksonville bucks the odds, and wins this game.
I see what you're saying, and it may be true with fans in general, but I think most Patriot fans (as well as fans of other teams when judging their team) do a good job of evaluating their team from season-to-season. It's certainly part of the process, though, there's no disputing that experience helps (how much is subjective, I guess).

In regards to the run defense, part of what people need to understand with NE is that they have over the years preferred a bend-but-don't-break style of defense; it doesn't always look great if you're looking at box scores, but they script and defend their side of the field as well as anyone in football for the most part (like McCoy going for 90+ yards w/ a 6.3 YPC - yet BUF scores 3 points and loses by 20). It's part of the reason that they're top 5 in PPG allowed, and #1 since week 5. Bortles is going to HAVE to make plays with his arm when they penetrate NE's side of the field. BB isn't going to let LF gut them (look at the Tennessee game); I'd imagine the only way he "goes off" is if he hits a big run early, which NE has been susceptible to at times this year. Bortles going to have to hit tight windows and process things quickly in a hostile environment. Admittedly, Flacco did it when many thought that he could not - maybe Bortles will to. But it's certainly not something that I would bet on, that's for sure.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Friction » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:30 pm

That would have been nuts to have a season where ARod, Wentz, and Brady went down. Not saying I really thought for a second TB12 was not going to play and probably play well. Still, the thought of it made me pause.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby nathanq42 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:28 pm

I think Jacksonville has a good shot at winning, while BB was able to neutralize henry, LF is a whole different beast out there, he doesnt go down like a tackle dummy like how henry does a good amount of the time. I think Jacksonville's defense will have to win them the game with lots of 3 and outs, a couple turnovers, and good field position for their offense. If the Pats are going to win, Brady is going to have to be lights out, and their defense will have to not get worn down by LF. TBH if Im the Jags I would give Ivory more carries to begin the game than LF and let LF close the game out with 30-35 carries over 2 and a half quarters, that would be deadly.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Phaded » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:59 pm

Friction wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:11 am Iggles are only +135 right now on the money line. My hedge is not looking as strong. On the flip side, my friend Mush went all in on the Queens for $2500. We have been waiting 22 years and counting for him to show us a winning gambling slip of any kind....
...ouch for your friend.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Friction » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:31 pm

I knew that was the nail in the proverbial coffin for them. I hedged hard this morning since i had previously really been sold on a Home Super Bowl. This guy is the ultimate mush, I swear. I have witnessed him lose all his money at Vegas...before reaching the hotel room. Something like 9 straight black bets all hitting red, on roulette. Broke, no credit card, nothing. Mush.
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby ArrylT » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:58 pm

Does he play fantasy football? And is his luck at drafting rookies as good as his gambling?
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Friction » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:03 pm

He is awful at fantasy. The worst. Pretty much kills guy's seasons. I dont play in any leagues with him any longer, but people talk about their teams throughout the season nonetheless.
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12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Etienne
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby hockeyBjj » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:59 am

I cannot belive how horrible the Vikings secondary was yesterday. So out of character for them to constantly blow coverage like that

D-line not getting any pressure whatsoever didn't help
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
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2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Valhalla » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:05 am

hockeyBjj wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:59 am I cannot belive how horrible the Vikings secondary was yesterday. So out of character for them to constantly blow coverage like that

D-line not getting any pressure whatsoever didn't help
Yeah something tells me the Vikings will be using the 30th pick on another CB...

They were the best 3rd down defense in the league this year...and then that. They just looked lethargic out there.

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Servo » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:25 am

Is it just me or was Trae Waynes simply atrocious yesterday?

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Fantasyfanatic11 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:34 am

Friction wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:31 pm I knew that was the nail in the proverbial coffin for them. I hedged hard this morning since i had previously really been sold on a Home Super Bowl. This guy is the ultimate mush, I swear. I have witnessed him lose all his money at Vegas...before reaching the hotel room. Something like 9 straight black bets all hitting red, on roulette. Broke, no credit card, nothing. Mush.
There will never be a home super bowl. NFL won't let it happen. Comes down to $$$$.
16 team PPR
QB: Herbert Purdy Garoppolo Winston
RB: Chubb Bijan Kamara White Singletary Gainwell CEH Penny
WR: Cooper Moore Dotson Beckham Mooney Mingo Renfrow
TE: LaPorta Kittle Waller

16 Team PPR
QB: Herbert
RB: A.Jones Elliott Spears Gainwell Fournette
WR: Kupp Olave M.Williams Flowers OBJ Dotson Johnston Palmer Claypool
TE: LaPorta Schultz Njoku

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:37 am

Fantasyfanatic11 wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:34 am
Friction wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:31 pm I knew that was the nail in the proverbial coffin for them. I hedged hard this morning since i had previously really been sold on a Home Super Bowl. This guy is the ultimate mush, I swear. I have witnessed him lose all his money at Vegas...before reaching the hotel room. Something like 9 straight black bets all hitting red, on roulette. Broke, no credit card, nothing. Mush.
There will never be a home super bowl. NFL won't let it happen. Comes down to $$$$.
Your argument in favor of fixed games on that other thread is almost plausible imo.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Valhalla » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:49 am

Servo wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:25 am Is it just me or was Trae Waynes simply atrocious yesterday?
He certainly wasn't a strength...

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Re: divisional round discussion

Postby Friction » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:32 am

I was more surprised by Ertz treating Harrison Smith like the red-headed stepchild all game. He dominated him.
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