Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

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cd6696
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Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby cd6696 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:08 pm

Been doing dynasty for quite a few years now. Each year I usually rely on listening to podcasts, visiting this forum, and reading scouting reports to put together my rookie board. This year I've got a couple rebuilds with a decent number of picks in several rounds. I'd like to get into doing more of my own analysis on incoming players before factoring in other takes.

What do you do to analyze incoming rookies during the off season? What tips would you have for someone just starting out?

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby nathanq42 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:27 pm

youtube voch lombardi, and matt waldman

both break down film really well, waldman is boring, but voch is charismatic. Waldman also produces the rookie scouting portfolio which is allegedly a really nice resource for 5-15 bucks iirc
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:41 pm

A really important thing is determining how their college game will translate to the NFL. You will have players that look great in college but will make bad pros, and you'll have average college players that will make great pros. It's not enough to watch a prospect and say "yeah he's a good/bad football player".

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby AussieMate » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:25 pm

Voch Lombardis tape on Mixon turned me into a believer. He got me excited just listening to him, great entertainment. Only found him this year so I can't say to whether he is a great resource but is enjoyable regardless

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby bsp27 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:37 pm

Age adjusted production and general dominance are the key indicators for wrs. Juju Smith-Schuster reminds us that the final season of a collegiate career does not encapsulate them as a player. His 18 year old 1400 yard 10 td season proved he was a phenom and future star, despite his lackluster junior season and tape grinders knocking him for "lazy route running".
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Bot101 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:48 pm

AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:25 pm Voch Lombardis tape on Mixon turned me into a believer. He got me excited just listening to him, great entertainment. Only found him this year so I can't say to whether he is a great resource but is enjoyable regardless
I just tried watching it. NFL blocked it on copyright grounds.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:07 pm

When I first saw this thread, I thought the title was "Tips for analyzing incoming crooks."

lol

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby pokerface40 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:52 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:07 pm When I first saw this thread, I thought the title was "Tips for analyzing incoming crooks."

lol
And to this I would reply look for a user avatar that is a hybrid of Coolio and Julio Jones.... that is the clear cut 1.01 in the 2018 crook draft.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby clarion contrarion » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:28 am

^^^ who dat ?
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Lotto4Life » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:49 am

Don't be afraid to incorporate NFL draft position into your analysis.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Dookmarriot » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:57 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:41 pm A really important thing is determining how their college game will translate to the NFL. You will have players that look great in college but will make bad pros, and you'll have average college players that will make great pros. It's not enough to watch a prospect and say "yeah he's a good/bad football player".
This is an essential point. There are so many variables and while college production is a decent input (you'd hope that college coaches would recognize a talented player and get him the ball), it is by no means a magic bullet.

I take solace that people who do this for a living - including people paid large sums of money to do it - whiff all the time. There is no sport as difficult to scout as football, because it's the most "team" sport, where an individual's success is so tied to other people - including the coaches - doing their jobs properly, not to mention the adaptability and work ethic of the player himself.

I think it's crucial that however you determine who to draft - either by dissecting film yourself or by following others - is that there is a clear methodology. I don't just want to read someone's conclusions, I want to know HOW they came to those conclusions, how they accounted for variables, etc. I can agree or disagree with, say, RotoViz or Waldman or even Dynasty DeLorean's fascinating Running Back Report, but I know in each case they have a detailed process, and they will also look to adjust those models as necessary based on new inputs. It's clearly an inexact science, so there's no such thing as a surefire method, but you want to be listening to people who try and determine who has the best chance to succeed - knowing, of course, that failure of that prospect is always a possibility.

For what it's worth, there are a couple of minor factors I always like to see in a prospect - these aren't knockout/key skills, but I believe they are important skills to have at the NFL level. For receivers - how are they at blocking? Because coaches love blocking receivers and that will get them more reps. And if they don't do well vs. press coverage in college, I'll probably pass, as they'll be force fed that in the pros.

For running backs - how are they at ball security? It's a flaw that can be fixed, but if the back can't fix it they won't see the field much. And how are they at pass protection? Because backs that get their QBs killed will see less reps, and volume is important in fantasy. Again, just little points that put players over the top for me.
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby pierson242 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:58 am

Don't always buy right into Highlight videos. highlights videos are just that, highlights. Its better to watch game tape and watch there every play
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby saw061600 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:10 am

Follow writers that DO watch a great deal of film. Follow the numbers (analytics) like rotoviz but also the writers (like here on DLF) that use other measures; the key word is that the writers uses something measurable with their analysis. The hell with hot takes and other gut reactions unless they're your own since they are opinions and likely not much better than your own informed opinion. Watch the draft, know where and when guys were drafted; draft capital often equals extended opportunity and longer leash for player development (that first round WR is going to get the chance to work through mistakes far longer than the 5th round WR).
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Mjvb5 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:19 am

Lotto4Life wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:49 am Don't be afraid to incorporate NFL draft position into your analysis.
This ones huge for me, for how much we all love to think we know what we’re doing, these guys get paid a lot of money and do this for a living

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby kamihamster » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am

I dont have any time to watch college tape. Instead, I listen to podcast (Dynasty Nerds, Dynasty Blueprint, Saturday to Sunday, Fantasy Guru, DTC, DLF, UTH-- this is how I rank them for rookie analysis) at work and on my drives. I take notes for the podcast, and keep track of their takes. At the end of each year, I look back and see how right or wrong they were. I try to look for trends on who they analyze well. For instance I notice that Dynasty Nerds are better with RBs then WRs (called Hunt, whiffed on Juju). Also with my spreadsheet, I look for a general consensus and rank everyone based off my league formats, my takes, and what everyone else says. This is all done pre-NFL draft.

Once the NFL draft happens, I copy paste my pre-draft rankings and put their NFL draft round/team next to them. I make note of any big fallers and risers and try to see if there is a reason. I also take note of certain teams since like podcast, they are good at analyzing certain positions than others (Steelers seem to always find good WRs, Andy Reid finds good RBs). I re-rank everyone based off their landing spot and NFL draft round.

For me, the best way to find draft values are the guys that are ranked highly pre-draft but for some reason fell in the draft. If you don't start your analysis pre-draft, you can miss out on gems like Diggs and Ajayi. Also, I notice when one podcast stands out (Nerds called Hunt RB3 pre-draft, no one else was close), and when a team confirms it by taking them earlier than projected, I take note and try to draft that person a little earlier than their ADP.
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