Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:34 am

kamihamster wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am I dont have any time to watch college tape. Instead, I listen to podcast (Dynasty Nerds, Dynasty Blueprint, Saturday to Sunday, Fantasy Guru, DTC, DLF, UTH-- this is how I rank them for rookie analysis) at work and on my drives. I take notes for the podcast, and keep track of their takes. At the end of each year, I look back and see how right or wrong they were. I try to look for trends on who they analyze well. For instance I notice that Dynasty Nerds are better with RBs then WRs (called Hunt, whiffed on Juju). Also with my spreadsheet, I look for a general consensus and rank everyone based off my league formats, my takes, and what everyone else says. This is all done pre-NFL draft.

Once the NFL draft happens, I copy paste my pre-draft rankings and put their NFL draft round/team next to them. I make note of any big fallers and risers and try to see if there is a reason. I also take note of certain teams since like podcast, they are good at analyzing certain positions than others (Steelers seem to always find good WRs, Andy Reid finds good RBs). I re-rank everyone based off their landing spot and NFL draft round.

For me, the best way to find draft values are the guys that are ranked highly pre-draft but for some reason fell in the draft. If you don't start your analysis pre-draft, you can miss out on gems like Diggs and Ajayi. Also, I notice when one podcast stands out (Nerds called Hunt RB3 pre-draft, no one else was close), and when a team confirms it by taking them earlier than projected, I take note and try to draft that person a little earlier than their ADP.
That's really interesting. So you're essentially rating different sources for year-over-year accuracy? Would you mind sharing this file? I'd be interested to see these metrics.
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12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Benny Snell Jr.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
PS: Mecole Hardman, Tony Pollard | 2020 Picks: 1.09, 2.10, 3.03 | 2021 Picks: 1st, 2nd

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby kamihamster » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:41 am

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:34 am
kamihamster wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am I dont have any time to watch college tape. Instead, I listen to podcast (Dynasty Nerds, Dynasty Blueprint, Saturday to Sunday, Fantasy Guru, DTC, DLF, UTH-- this is how I rank them for rookie analysis) at work and on my drives. I take notes for the podcast, and keep track of their takes. At the end of each year, I look back and see how right or wrong they were. I try to look for trends on who they analyze well. For instance I notice that Dynasty Nerds are better with RBs then WRs (called Hunt, whiffed on Juju). Also with my spreadsheet, I look for a general consensus and rank everyone based off my league formats, my takes, and what everyone else says. This is all done pre-NFL draft.

Once the NFL draft happens, I copy paste my pre-draft rankings and put their NFL draft round/team next to them. I make note of any big fallers and risers and try to see if there is a reason. I also take note of certain teams since like podcast, they are good at analyzing certain positions than others (Steelers seem to always find good WRs, Andy Reid finds good RBs). I re-rank everyone based off their landing spot and NFL draft round.

For me, the best way to find draft values are the guys that are ranked highly pre-draft but for some reason fell in the draft. If you don't start your analysis pre-draft, you can miss out on gems like Diggs and Ajayi. Also, I notice when one podcast stands out (Nerds called Hunt RB3 pre-draft, no one else was close), and when a team confirms it by taking them earlier than projected, I take note and try to draft that person a little earlier than their ADP.
That's really interesting. So you're essentially rating different sources for year-over-year accuracy? Would you mind sharing this file? I'd be interested to see these metrics.
I will, but right now it's in a form that only makes sense to me.... might take me a while to make it understandable for everyone else.
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:12 am

kamihamster wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:41 am
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:34 am
kamihamster wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am I dont have any time to watch college tape. Instead, I listen to podcast (Dynasty Nerds, Dynasty Blueprint, Saturday to Sunday, Fantasy Guru, DTC, DLF, UTH-- this is how I rank them for rookie analysis) at work and on my drives. I take notes for the podcast, and keep track of their takes. At the end of each year, I look back and see how right or wrong they were. I try to look for trends on who they analyze well. For instance I notice that Dynasty Nerds are better with RBs then WRs (called Hunt, whiffed on Juju). Also with my spreadsheet, I look for a general consensus and rank everyone based off my league formats, my takes, and what everyone else says. This is all done pre-NFL draft.

Once the NFL draft happens, I copy paste my pre-draft rankings and put their NFL draft round/team next to them. I make note of any big fallers and risers and try to see if there is a reason. I also take note of certain teams since like podcast, they are good at analyzing certain positions than others (Steelers seem to always find good WRs, Andy Reid finds good RBs). I re-rank everyone based off their landing spot and NFL draft round.

For me, the best way to find draft values are the guys that are ranked highly pre-draft but for some reason fell in the draft. If you don't start your analysis pre-draft, you can miss out on gems like Diggs and Ajayi. Also, I notice when one podcast stands out (Nerds called Hunt RB3 pre-draft, no one else was close), and when a team confirms it by taking them earlier than projected, I take note and try to draft that person a little earlier than their ADP.
That's really interesting. So you're essentially rating different sources for year-over-year accuracy? Would you mind sharing this file? I'd be interested to see these metrics.
I will, but right now it's in a form that only makes sense to me.... might take me a while to make it understandable for everyone else.
Haha no prob. Please share if/when you do that.
Kittles Pox | Championships: 2015, 2017
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Benny Snell Jr.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
PS: Mecole Hardman, Tony Pollard | 2020 Picks: 1.09, 2.10, 3.03 | 2021 Picks: 1st, 2nd

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Concept Coop » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:43 am

I think it's the most overrated aspect of being a good dynasty owner, personally. Draft spot is a huge correlation of success, and one that I've yet to see an amateur scout best with any significant track record. Find a couple draftniks you like and a couple fantasy writers you like, watch a couple Youtube clips. The more worthwhile endeavor, compared to "scouting", is translating the NFL draft results to your specific league. How valuable are RBs compared to WRs compared to QBs compared to TEs? How valuable is a RB drafted top 10 to a WR drafted top 5? Etc, etc. How valuable is the rookie pick compared to veteran X or Y?

You don't need to spend hours pretending to be a scout to be a successful fantasy owner. If it's fun, of course, do it! But I wouldn't worry too much about it.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:27 pm

kamihamster wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am . For instance I notice that Dynasty Nerds are better with RBs then WRs (called Hunt, whiffed on Juju).
Weird because I always thought they were terrible at scouting Rb's. I too would be interested to see any list you have, maybe my thoughts are different from reality. I know they were really really low on David Johnson, and far too low on Henry. I can't remember too many other specifics off the top of my head.

Also you can't really take a 1-2 year sample size and determine if someone is good or not at scouting. I don't know how many years you have info on this for so i'm not directing this towards you specifically, but any given player can have 1 really good year and then fall off a cliff, and of course the inverse of that is true as well.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby GridironGuerilla » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:34 pm

Concept Coop wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:43 am I think it's the most overrated aspect of being a good dynasty owner, personally. Draft spot is a huge correlation of success, and one that I've yet to see an amateur scout best with any significant track record. Find a couple draftniks you like and a couple fantasy writers you like, watch a couple Youtube clips. The more worthwhile endeavor, compared to "scouting", is translating the NFL draft results to your specific league. How valuable are RBs compared to WRs compared to QBs compared to TEs? How valuable is a RB drafted top 10 to a WR drafted top 5? Etc, etc. How valuable is the rookie pick compared to veteran X or Y?

You don't need to spend hours pretending to be a scout to be a successful fantasy owner. If it's fun, of course, do it! But I wouldn't worry too much about it.
I personally completely agree and don't think this could be said any better. I' can watch film all day and love everything I see. I trust the guys who know what to look for and their analysis over my own.
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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby M-Dub » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:43 pm

Mjvb5 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:19 am
Lotto4Life wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:49 am Don't be afraid to incorporate NFL draft position into your analysis.
This ones huge for me, for how much we all love to think we know what we’re doing, these guys get paid a lot of money and do this for a living
Not trying to flame you or call you out specifically, but I hate this mentality. If real-life NFL scouts were so much better at this than we are, you wouldn’t see guys like Mike Williams and John Toss (I love that that’s a thing now) get drafted early in the first round. I know those are just two examples, but there are many, many more. NFL scouts are no different than dynasty owners. There are some good ones, some so-so ones and some really bad ones.

I’m not saying draft position shouldn’t be a factor in your rankings. As others have already mentioned, a guy taken with a high pick is going to be afforded a much greater opportunity to “prove himself” (i.e. prove the scouts right) than someone taken with a late-round flier.

Personally, I put the most stock in measurable athleticism, college dominance and opportunity (landing spot). Film grinding is usually the last aspect of my scouting and is unlikely to significantly alter my rankings. Some will disagree, and that’s fine. The main thing is, have a process and then #trusttheprocess. Don’t get caught up in the faulty narrative of NFL scouts being soooo much better at this than we are just because they get paid to do it.
Both are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties

🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer

Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years

QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Concept Coop » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:39 pm

M-Dub wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:43 pm Not trying to flame you or call you out specifically, but I hate this mentality. If real-life NFL scouts were so much better at this than we are, you wouldn’t see guys like Mike Williams and John Toss (I love that that’s a thing now) get drafted early in the first round. I know those are just two examples, but there are many, many more. NFL scouts are no different than dynasty owners. There are some good ones, some so-so ones and some really bad ones.
All that means is that it's an inexact science, and that even the best take their lumps. The best baseball players in the world hit well under .500. That doesn't mean you or I could do any better. It just means that hitting a well thrown baseball is really, really hard. Just as scouting is really, really hard.
M-Dub wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:43 pm The main thing is, have a process and then #trusttheprocess. Don’t get caught up in the faulty narrative of NFL scouts being soooo much better at this than we are just because they get paid to do it.
We don't even have access to All-22 footage. Let's just be honest with ourselves: the professionals are a lot better and have infinitely more resources than we do. You're not going to outperform a billion dollar industry as a hobby.

Edit: Even if you're the exception, my point would still stand for the other 99% of us.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby M-Dub » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:35 pm

Concept Coop wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:39 pm
M-Dub wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:43 pm Not trying to flame you or call you out specifically, but I hate this mentality. If real-life NFL scouts were so much better at this than we are, you wouldn’t see guys like Mike Williams and John Toss (I love that that’s a thing now) get drafted early in the first round. I know those are just two examples, but there are many, many more. NFL scouts are no different than dynasty owners. There are some good ones, some so-so ones and some really bad ones.
All that means is that it's an inexact science, and that even the best take their lumps. The best baseball players in the world hit well under .500. That doesn't mean you or I could do any better. It just means that hitting a well thrown baseball is really, really hard. Just as scouting is really, really hard.
M-Dub wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:43 pm The main thing is, have a process and then #trusttheprocess. Don’t get caught up in the faulty narrative of NFL scouts being soooo much better at this than we are just because they get paid to do it.
We don't even have access to All-22 footage. Let's just be honest with ourselves: the professionals are a lot better and have infinitely more resources than we do. You're not going to outperform a billion dollar industry as a hobby.

Edit: Even if you're the exception, my point would still stand for the other 99% of us.
I guess I can understand that line of thinking if you put a lot of stock into film analysis. Personally, I don’t. It’s the most time-consuming element of scouting and also the most subjective, and is thus more prone to confirmation bias and other human error. But we do have access to all the same combine/pro day stats and measurements and all the college stats that pro scouts do. So I suppose the amount of reverence you afford to NFL scouts is directly proportional to how much value you place on film grinding.

Edit: It’s also important to keep in mind that most of us (meaning non-IDP players) have the luxury of only focusing on four positions: QB, RB, WR & TE. I have no doubt that a NFL scout is way better than the best dynasty player at identifying great long snappers or guards. I’m also not saying I’m better at scouting than ALL or even MOST pro scouts. But I definitely think I’m better than a few of them. I’m just saying the gap in scouting ability between hobbyists and professionals isn’t as wide a chasm as some make it out to be.
Both are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties

🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer

Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years

QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Concept Coop » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:14 pm

M-Dub wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:35 pm I guess I can understand that line of thinking if you put a lot of stock into film analysis. Personally, I don’t. It’s the most time-consuming element of scouting and also the most subjective, and is thus more prone to confirmation bias and other human error. But we do have access to all the same combine/pro day stats and measurements and all the college stats that pro scouts do. So I suppose the amount of reverence you afford to NFL scouts is directly proportional to how much value you place on film grinding.

Edit: It’s also important to keep in mind that most of us (meaning non-IDP players) have the luxury of only focusing on four positions: QB, RB, WR & TE. I have no doubt that a NFL scout is way better than the best dynasty player at identifying great long snappers or guards. I’m also not saying I’m better at scouting than ALL or even MOST pro scouts. But I definitely think I’m better than a few of them. I’m just saying the gap in scouting ability between hobbyists and professionals isn’t as wide a chasm as some make it out to be.
I'm an analytics guy myself and have been playing for about a decade--and I've yet to see a single metric best draft position. If anyone has one, that doesn't itself rely on draft position, please do point me to it. I've never seen one come even remotely close.

NFL scouting teams are divided by position and even geographic region. Only the top guys have input on every position and player.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:22 pm

Has anyone ever compared dynasty drafts from leagues that draft BEFORE the NFL Draft versus leagues that draft AFTER the NFL Draft. I would love to see what effect the NFL Draft has on dynasty picks.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby Phaded » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:38 pm

When scouting WRs, the ability to consistently get open and create sepetation is essential. A lot of WRs may make a lot of highlight reel catches or great looking contested catches; but it is not nearly as easy to pull it off in the pros. Obviously there are exceptions but it is a high priority for me.

I have a really hard time scouting RBs personally. Lanes opened by the offensive line are typically larger and defensive play is generally more poor (shoddy tackling, misplaying something, taking bad angles, etc.) although I am weary of RBs who constantly bounce it to the outside, I like to see them work in between the tackles. I also try to see how efficient they are in the receiving game.

Much more confident in my WR scouting than RB.

I try to watch a lot of tape for games where they did not post great stat lines personally. I start backwards from most but I find the flaws first. Why did they not do well in a game? I feel like people get too get caught up with great stat lines and do not look at the big picture.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby C_n_red_again » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:16 pm

An earlier poster recomended early breakout age for WRs. This is exactly what I look for in my wr prospects and have done so for years. Why I drafted guys like juju Courtland Sutton corey Davis etc in my devy leagues. It’s the number one precursor to wr success in the nfl. It is very very rare a late breakout college wr makes it in the pros. Looking at you kevin white
RUDL TEAM SIX
devy-dynasty-salary cap-12 teams-full ppr
1qb 2rb 3wr 1te 1flex dst kicker
Qb- Carson wentz
Rb- jay Ajayi, Joe Mixon, Damien Williams, James Connor
Wr- juju smith, Odell beckham, nuk Hopkins, , Michael Thomas,
TE- George kittle, Ian Thomas, chris Herndon
Devy squad- courtland sutton, jk dobbins , Jonathan Taylor, Travis ettienne, aj dillon
2014 runner up 2015 Champs 2016 champ 2017 runner up 2018 runner up

Team 2 horns and fins
Dynasty, devy, salary cap, 24 man roster start 1qb 2 Rb 1 tight end and a flex
Qb russel Wilson Phillip Rivers Marcus mariotta
Rb saquan barkely, Ezekiel Elliot, Christian mcafrey, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones
Wr Keenan Allen, Micheal Thomas, Corey Davis, ty hilton
Tight end jack Doyle
Ir dairiuce guice
Devy squad jk dobbins Travis ettienne Damien Harris traveone Williams, Miles Sanders,deandre Swift, kelvin Harmon , aj brown,Brian Edwards,N’Keal Harry, tee higgins, Jerry juedy, Collin Johnson, courtland Sutton
2017 runner up 2018 champion

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby cd6696 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:17 am

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:34 am
kamihamster wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am I dont have any time to watch college tape. Instead, I listen to podcast (Dynasty Nerds, Dynasty Blueprint, Saturday to Sunday, Fantasy Guru, DTC, DLF, UTH-- this is how I rank them for rookie analysis) at work and on my drives. I take notes for the podcast, and keep track of their takes. At the end of each year, I look back and see how right or wrong they were. I try to look for trends on who they analyze well. For instance I notice that Dynasty Nerds are better with RBs then WRs (called Hunt, whiffed on Juju). Also with my spreadsheet, I look for a general consensus and rank everyone based off my league formats, my takes, and what everyone else says. This is all done pre-NFL draft.

Once the NFL draft happens, I copy paste my pre-draft rankings and put their NFL draft round/team next to them. I make note of any big fallers and risers and try to see if there is a reason. I also take note of certain teams since like podcast, they are good at analyzing certain positions than others (Steelers seem to always find good WRs, Andy Reid finds good RBs). I re-rank everyone based off their landing spot and NFL draft round.

For me, the best way to find draft values are the guys that are ranked highly pre-draft but for some reason fell in the draft. If you don't start your analysis pre-draft, you can miss out on gems like Diggs and Ajayi. Also, I notice when one podcast stands out (Nerds called Hunt RB3 pre-draft, no one else was close), and when a team confirms it by taking them earlier than projected, I take note and try to draft that person a little earlier than their ADP.
That's really interesting. So you're essentially rating different sources for year-over-year accuracy? Would you mind sharing this file? I'd be interested to see these metrics.
This is essentially what I do, minus the reflection for which source was the most accurate. I'd be interested in this file as well.

I've been able to check out some videos mentioned. Altogether this is great advice. Thanks everyone for sharing your tips.

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Re: Tips for analyzing incoming rooks

Postby AussieMate » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:30 am

Bot101 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:48 pm
AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:25 pm Voch Lombardis tape on Mixon turned me into a believer. He got me excited just listening to him, great entertainment. Only found him this year so I can't say to whether he is a great resource but is enjoyable regardless
I just tried watching it. NFL blocked it on copyright grounds.
Well that's upsetting, was really enjoyable


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