Doug Martin's future

[kris_kapsner]

He looked really good his 1st game back, what the hell happened lol?

I don't know. It seemed like he looked pretty good the first two games back this year...then down hill he went.

[whodunnit]

Just released from the Buccs. Any changes?

[Big Al]

Barber gets a bump in value for now.

[Jfever]

Not in my eyes. They will be drafting a rb early. Barber's value stays where it was.

[kris_kapsner]

Not in my eyes. They will be drafting a rb early. Barber's value stays where it was.

This ^^^

I expect the Bucs to either draft a RB in the first couple rounds or hit up a FA RB like Hyde or Murray if released could easily end up as the bell cows there.

If I own any other Bucs RB's I'm selling now based on this news.

[Pac_Eddy]

I traded away a late 2nd for Doug Martin at this time last year. This is what I had in mind for a payoff - Bucs release him, he signs a short term, incentive laded contract with a new team.

Lagarrette Blount has made a nice living doing that, and has been a cheap source of fantasy points for years.

[Jfever]

Good way to make title runs ^

If you build your team around blue chip talent at wr, TE, and Qb, then fill in the gaps with short term cheaper answers at rb, you'll have a nice long window of relevance.

[Pac_Eddy]

Good way to make title runs ^

If you build your team around blue chip talent at wr, TE, and Qb, then fill in the gaps with short term cheaper answers at rb, you'll have a nice long window of relevance.

I definitely prefer to build my team with a few studs supplemented with a lot of roster space for cheap, temporary guys vs. many middle range guys.

[Johnny Canuck]

that entire bucs offense was odd last yr, wouldn't be shocked to see him have a mini-resurgence when he lands somewhere on a one yr deal. At least it'll present another selling window at minimum.

The real question is, where are the good landing spots for him? Feel like taking over for Gore on the Colts would be a great spot. I could see the Hawks signing him to give Carson competition, but that would be a bad spot unless they overhaul their o-line this offseason, NTM Carson is likely the better player already. Maybe the redskins. He'd prob give fat rob and perine a run for the starting job.

[Bad News Barrett]

Martin needed a change of scenery badly. I'm holding for now, selling if he goes to a good spot

[Fish Sticks]

Well he was just released. I am guessing someone will pick him up, just a matter of if he will get a chance at the leading back role.

[ninotoreS]

Barber gets a bump in value for now.

Not in my eyes. They will be drafting a rb early. Barber's value stays where it was.

Your signature is ironic in the context of this reply. The reality is indeed that Barber gets an objective bump in value for now. It's the present depth-chart fact, regardless of your personal speculation.

Some speculation of my own: Koetter keeping his job makes it more likely Quizz plays out his contract. So, together with Barber (as an ERFA it's effectively guaranteed he's re-signed), that's two RBs under contract that the coaching staff has established confidence in as a starter and even bellcow. Neither are flashy options, but they've gotten the job done when called upon recently, and that matters for '18. One or both of them could serve as a stop-gap until '19, with the potential to be more than that in Barber's case.

Assuming Sims isn't re-signed, it's practically guaranteed the Bucs draft an RB, and/or sign a decent UDFA or two. However, considering Koetter's veteran favoritism toward Rodgers, plus optimism in young Barber after his strong finish to the season, it is plausible, perhaps probable, that the organization opts not to spend a premium pick on a position that's objectively not one of their roster's primary needs at the moment.

Accordingly, my guess is that TB won't draft an RB until early Day 3. I envision them going for somebody with a good 40 time (Licht has said he wants more explosion from the running-game while praising Barber's finish to the season), but more likely profiling as a complementary piece than as a starter.

I traded away a late 2nd for Doug Martin at this time last year. This is what I had in mind for a payoff - Bucs release him, he signs a short term, incentive laded contract with a new team.

Lagarrette Blount has made a nice living doing that, and has been a cheap source of fantasy points for years.

Don't I remember you arguing in a Barber thread that Martin wouldn't be cut? You cited their cap room as your reasoning. Maybe that was a different poster.

Well, regardless: Blount has been performing at a much higher level than Martin, and has been relatively consistent in his performance since 2013; he has not suffered a comparable dip in play as Martin has these last two years. So, not an apt comparison. Blount retained esteem around the league, Martin has not.

Martin isn't gonna be much sought after in free-agency. He's an aging 2-down RB lacking special-teams utility with two years of bad tape. There is a real possibility Martin only gets signed as a camp-body somewhere and will have to fight just to make a 53.

You want a logical present-tense comparison for Doug Martin right now, it's Chris Ivory.

[Pac_Eddy]

Don't I remember you arguing in a Barber thread that Martin wouldn't be cut? You cited their cap room as your reasoning. Maybe that was a different poster.

Not sure if it's the same thread you're referring to, but I did argue that the salary cap wouldn't be a reason to cut Martin. I thought it slightly more likely they keep than cut him, but I was wrong. I do think he's more likely to regain value by going elsewhere than staying in TB. Both are opinions, both can be true at the same time.

[Tvols]

Everybody on that Tampa bay team needs a change of scenery.. that place it looking like Jeff fisher is coaching there ...

[Pullo Vision]

Ivory is a great comparison for Martin, in terms of general career arc.

Backfields he could land- Jets, Packers, Raiders, Patriots, Giants, Dolphins, Rams, Chargers, Cardinals, Vikings (if Murray walks), Bears, Panthers.