Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

[Phaded]

I think if Murray leaves and Henry takes over, he can be in that 2nd tier of RBs. I have been trying to pick him up in both leagues but no luck.

[Bam_19]

Why wouldn't they want to bring him back? I'm not privy to the TEN cap situation, but I think from a value standpoint Murray is more than worth his $6.25 million price tag. As much as Henry owners want to believe it, Henry is not better than Murray. The Titans are a better team with Murray on the roster, and having two good backs is very valuable.

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

The stats also used to say Ben Tate was better than Arian Foster.

This year the stats said Alfred Morris was much better than Zeke.

The stats also say that Yeldon was the better back over Fournette.

I'm not saying stats in football are worthless, cuz they're not. But out of all the major sports, stats in THIS sport are the least predictive of future success, and the least reflective of past performance.

I agree it isn’t a lock for sure. But let’s look at the facts. Henry outperformed Murray by pretty much every stat this year. Murray has roughly 2000 career touches and turns 30 this year. 2 of the 3 previous years he has averaged 3.6 yards a carry. He currently has the 7th highest cap hit for rbs next year. That money can be better spent else where for sure.

Even if Henry regresses from his stats this year he would most likely be at worst equal to what Murray provided this year.

Also in the case of Morris/zeke and yeldon/fournette the stats are not as telling because zeke and fournette received so much more work than Morris and yeldon.

Henry and Murray were 8 carries apart so the argument doesn’t really apply.

[kris_kapsner]

Henry is a fine RB. I think he'll be good.

I also think that he isn't special, good but not special. And right now you can almost get the "special" price tag for him when trading him away. That's why I sold him for the 1.4 and Dixon in November this year. I could probably get even more after that last performance.

But, I don't think it's a guarantee that Murray is gone. The coaching staff likes him and trusts him. He's a better blocker than Henry. People forget that Murray was also trying to shake a bad hamstring at the beginning of the season and sometimes that stuff doesn't go away until you get rest in the off season. So, time will tell.

I think in PPR leagues that Henry will be over valued by some teams, where his value is greater than his fantasy production will warrant. That's why I traded him away because I'd drawn that conclusion. I could be wrong. And I think he's certainly a quality player. But, his value may be peaking right now.

[Bot101]

I traded away Dez for him midway through the season, promptly got flamed on the forums. Then flipped him for what I knew was a locked in top 3 pick and got lightly flamed (ended up being 1.02 and flipped that for tyreek hill and currently being told I was wrong).
I think hes a good not great volume runner. He seems so stiff when he runs. And he runs like hes a sky scraper, straight up.

[Orenthal Shames]

Henry is a fine RB. I think he'll be good.

I also think that he isn't special, good but not special. And right now you can almost get the "special" price tag for him when trading him away. That's why I sold him for the 1.4 and Dixon in November this year. I could probably get even more after that last performance.

But, I don't think it's a guarantee that Murray is gone. The coaching staff likes him and trusts him. He's a better blocker than Henry. People forget that Murray was also trying to shake a bad hamstring at the beginning of the season and sometimes that stuff doesn't go away until you get rest in the off season. So, time will tell.

I think in PPR leagues that Henry will be over valued by some teams, where his value is greater than his fantasy production will warrant. That's why I traded him away because I'd drawn that conclusion. I could be wrong. And I think he's certainly a quality player. But, his value may be peaking right now.

This is pretty much my take here. Henry's ADP is so high, I think it's the perfect time to cash in. Especially if Murray isn't back. His value will skyrocket even more. He's already up to a startup adp of 38. Rb14. Too rich for my blood.

[BigBawseRoss]

I just don't get why TEN would bring him back? He is owed a ton of money with none being of the dead variety. Ya they could restructure his deal but I think it would be cheaper for the team to use Henry as the RB1 and draft a guy in the 4th-6th as a 3rd down back. Then they can spend their savings elsewhere.

Why wouldn't they want to bring him back? I'm not privy to the TEN cap situation, but I think from a value standpoint Murray is more than worth his $6.25 million price tag. As much as Henry owners want to believe it, Henry is not better than Murray. The Titans are a better team with Murray on the roster, and having two good backs is very valuable.

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

short term memory is a funny thing. ask people who wrote him off after the Eagles fiasco. He played hurt this year and is only a season removed from being a top 5 back

[jetsfan5757]

In my particular case, RBs are really hard to get a hold of. I also don't think he has reached max value. I think if he comes in and performs really well as the starter he can easily climb into top 10 territory (non PPR). He's still really young...

[Balzac]

I just don't get why TEN would bring him back? He is owed a ton of money with none being of the dead variety. Ya they could restructure his deal but I think it would be cheaper for the team to use Henry as the RB1 and draft a guy in the 4th-6th as a 3rd down back. Then they can spend their savings elsewhere.

Why wouldn't they want to bring him back? I'm not privy to the TEN cap situation, but I think from a value standpoint Murray is more than worth his $6.25 million price tag. As much as Henry owners want to believe it, Henry is not better than Murray. The Titans are a better team with Murray on the roster, and having two good backs is very valuable.

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

That's not really how "catch rates" work.

[Bam_19]

Why wouldn't they want to bring him back? I'm not privy to the TEN cap situation, but I think from a value standpoint Murray is more than worth his $6.25 million price tag. As much as Henry owners want to believe it, Henry is not better than Murray. The Titans are a better team with Murray on the roster, and having two good backs is very valuable.

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

short term memory is a funny thing. ask people who wrote him off after the Eagles fiasco. He played hurt this year and is only a season removed from being a top 5 back

He was decent the year before (more so in fantasy then real life) in his top 5 back season he was 13th in ypc so already in the middle of the pack. Going into next season he is 2 years older and will be in his 30s. The wheels are coming off.

Also why wasn’t he a more productive runner this year him and Henry were given basically the same amount of carries year Murray’s ypc was 3.6 while Henry’s was 4.2.

He has been below average 2/3 years. Even when he was good 1/3 years his ypc was more average. He is over 30 with 2000 career touches and is currently the 7th highest paid running back in the league. They have another rb on their roster who with the same workload out performed him.

I don’t see the benefit in the titans keeping Murray unless he restructures.

[Bam_19]

Why wouldn't they want to bring him back? I'm not privy to the TEN cap situation, but I think from a value standpoint Murray is more than worth his $6.25 million price tag. As much as Henry owners want to believe it, Henry is not better than Murray. The Titans are a better team with Murray on the roster, and having two good backs is very valuable.

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

That's not really how "catch rates" work.

Sure it does because it is based on sample size.

Henry this year was 65% to Murray’s 82% which is a huge difference. But Murray received 3 times the targets.

If your total their catch% Henry sits at 75% and Murray at 81% which is a lot closer.

[kris_kapsner]

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

short term memory is a funny thing. ask people who wrote him off after the Eagles fiasco. He played hurt this year and is only a season removed from being a top 5 back

He was decent the year before (more so in fantasy then real life) in his top 5 back season he was 13th in ypc so already in the middle of the pack. Going into next season he is 2 years older and will be in his 30s. The wheels are coming off.

Also why wasn’t he a more productive runner this year him and Henry were given basically the same amount of carries year Murray’s ypc was 3.6 while Henry’s was 4.2.

He has been below average 2/3 years. Even when he was good 1/3 years his ypc was more average. He is over 30 with 2000 career touches and is currently the 7th highest paid running back in the league. They have another rb on their roster who with the same workload out performed him.

I don’t see the benefit in the titans keeping Murray unless he restructures.

You might be right. That's how it should work if the coaches and GM are looking at just numbers.

But, the real NFL doesn't necessarily work like that. Coaches like players who can do the things that don't show up on stat lines. There was a reason that all season, even though Murray was dinged up with a bad hamstring from the beginning of the season and didn't look as good as Henry when he ran the ball, that the coaches kept him in instead of Henry. They know more than we do about what makes their team click. And, they are about to head into the second game of the playoffs, so I'm confident they know more about football than we do. Murray does some little things better than Henry does, like pass protection and such, and the coaching staff trusts him. So, like I said above, it's no guarantee that Murray leaves town. And don't write off Murray's next season just yet.

Right now most people are assuming Henry will be a one man show next year. I would sell now since projections and values are based on that assumption at this time for most people. If Murray does leave, maybe Henry gets a small up tick in value from that, but it won't be substantial. And, if Murray doesn't leave and the coaches are happy with how he looks after recovering from injury, Henry's value drops significantly.

[Goddard]

Murray staying or not shouldn't change Henry's value one bit. Even if Murray's still there next year, I fully expect Henry to take over as the lead back.

[Bam_19]

short term memory is a funny thing. ask people who wrote him off after the Eagles fiasco. He played hurt this year and is only a season removed from being a top 5 back

He was decent the year before (more so in fantasy then real life) in his top 5 back season he was 13th in ypc so already in the middle of the pack. Going into next season he is 2 years older and will be in his 30s. The wheels are coming off.

Also why wasn’t he a more productive runner this year him and Henry were given basically the same amount of carries year Murray’s ypc was 3.6 while Henry’s was 4.2.

He has been below average 2/3 years. Even when he was good 1/3 years his ypc was more average. He is over 30 with 2000 career touches and is currently the 7th highest paid running back in the league. They have another rb on their roster who with the same workload out performed him.

I don’t see the benefit in the titans keeping Murray unless he restructures.

You might be right. That's how it should work if the coaches and GM are looking at just numbers.

But, the real NFL doesn't necessarily work like that. Coaches like players who can do the things that don't show up on stat lines. There was a reason that all season, even though Murray was dinged up with a bad hamstring from the beginning of the season and didn't look as good as Henry when he ran the ball, that the coaches kept him in instead of Henry. They know more than we do about what makes their team click. And, they are about to head into the second game of the playoffs, so I'm confident they know more about football than we do. Murray does some little things better than Henry does, like pass protection and such, and the coaching staff trusts him. So, like I said above, it's no guarantee that Murray leaves town. And don't write off Murray's next season just yet.

Right now most people are assuming Henry will be a one man show next year. I would sell now since projections and values are based on that assumption at this time for most people. If Murray does leave, maybe Henry gets a small up tick in value from that, but it won't be substantial. And, if Murray doesn't leave and the coaches are happy with how he looks after recovering from injury, Henry's value drops significantly.

I won’t argue this because Murray is a great pass protector. So I could see him staying but not at almost 7 mill. I will say though the titans just won a playoff game with Henry play 68 of 70 offensive snaps so he is definitely capable.

[hjernazian]

I just don't get why TEN would bring him back? He is owed a ton of money with none being of the dead variety. Ya they could restructure his deal but I think it would be cheaper for the team to use Henry as the RB1 and draft a guy in the 4th-6th as a 3rd down back. Then they can spend their savings elsewhere.

Why wouldn't they want to bring him back? I'm not privy to the TEN cap situation, but I think from a value standpoint Murray is more than worth his $6.25 million price tag. As much as Henry owners want to believe it, Henry is not better than Murray. The Titans are a better team with Murray on the roster, and having two good backs is very valuable.

The stats disagree that Murray is better. The only thing that was better was his catch rate and that’s because he had more than double the opportunity Henry had in that department.

woudln't agree with that. that atrocious coaching staff misused both backs all year. in 2016, Murray looked very much his old self, and if Henry were truly that dominant, he wouldv'e not only taken the job in 2017, but 16 as well. Murray is the better back. He played hurt all year. Now, if you want to argue his health as a variable - i can see that. however, i don't think it is wise to value a player based on the projected health of his superior. it usually doesn't take this long for rookie stud RB's to break out, when given an opportunity of course and Henry had plenty of opportunities. I'm buying him as a RB2/flex if they move on from Demarco, but I do see them drafting/signing a complimentary player even if he does.

[ArrylT]

I believe DeMarco Murray has been released.