Buy Low WR1 Candidates

[btv802]

Oh and guys...feel free to rip on any other guys that have been mentioned don't let me be the only one picking guys apart. Have fun with it

[btv802]

This is the list that all you Jarvis fans want to see me post.



But you'll notice that for the most part high catch rate isn't what defines most of the WRs we traditionally think of as elite outside receivers early in their career. It's the high efficiency. Just food for thought.

[Ghosted]

Oh and guys...feel free to rip on any other guys that have been mentioned don't let me be the only one picking guys apart. Have fun with it

I would jump in w/ regards to Landry, but I feel like I beat that horse to death in the thread that I linked haha. You'll find that he's one of the more polarizing WR's that is discussed here, and people are pretty dug in. It makes for a great debate, because there are strong arguments on both sides, and when they are articulated well, it turns into a pretty fun conversation; but I'm pretty convinced that no one's thoughts are ever changed as a result.

[btv802]

So here is a weird list in no particular order that I threw together of guys that don't have WR1 ADP that kinda stand out to me as either being deserving of greater volume and/or likely to get more volume than they've had past few years. Admittedly did this a bit by stats and a bit by feel, not necessarily a fan of all these guys. I know some of them will induce eye rolls and I actually don't love the list but here it is.

Will Fuller
Marquise Goodwin
Chris Hogan
Tyrell Williams
Cameron Meredith
Paul Richardson
Kenny Stills
Tyler Lockett
Pierre Garcon
Sammy Watkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Robby Anderson
Devante Parker

[Goddard]

So here is a weird list in no particular order that I threw together of guys that don't have WR1 ADP that kinda stand out to me as either being deserving of greater volume and/or likely to get more volume than they've had past few years. Admittedly did this a bit by stats and a bit by feel, not necessarily a fan of all these guys. I know some of them will induce eye rolls and I actually don't love the list but here it is.

Will Fuller
Marquise Goodwin
Chris Hogan
Tyrell Williams
Cameron Meredith
Paul Richardson
Kenny Stills
Tyler Lockett
Pierre Garcon
Sammy Watkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Robby Anderson
Devante Parker

lol sorry, had to do it.

[gausec]

So here is a weird list in no particular order that I threw together of guys that don't have WR1 ADP that kinda stand out to me as either being deserving of greater volume and/or likely to get more volume than they've had past few years. Admittedly did this a bit by stats and a bit by feel, not necessarily a fan of all these guys. I know some of them will induce eye rolls and I actually don't love the list but here it is.

Will Fuller
Marquise Goodwin
Chris Hogan
Tyrell Williams
Cameron Meredith
Paul Richardson
Kenny Stills
Tyler Lockett
Pierre Garcon
Sammy Watkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Robby Anderson
Devante Parker

Good list! I myself am very high on Goodwin. I picked him up last offseason figuring someone had to catch the ball. He performed well with Jimmy so I would trade for him in other leagues.

Would you look to acquire some of these targets now, or rather later to see how FA shapes up?

[btv802]

lol sorry, had to do it.

It's all good I deserve it

[btv802]

Would you look to acquire some of these targets now, or rather later to see how FA shapes up?

No clue man I just did it for fun and wouldn't recommend you pay attention to anything I'm saying

I mostly just put the list together based on dudes who have done positive things on the field with limited volume of targets over the past few years. Then I kinda just manually filtered out names that felt totally wrong and didn't make any sense. Like I thought about including Chris Godwin but, you know, Mike Evans is there. Maybe I should have included him since I included Lockett...Oh well. Pretend like he was there.

[wildabeast49]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

THANK YOU!!! I thought I was taking crazy pills when everyone just seemed to accept YPR as a valid measurement of efficiency...

There we go, I really don't think an NFL team cares what you do on a per reception basis as that doesn't equate the actual risk associated with going to the player. If a player has a really high YPR that doesnt mean anything if hes only catching half those balls. Landry has one of the highest catch rates in the NFL and that means these low risk low reward throws are also incredible at getting your team into a situation to get a first and keep things moving

Not weighing on Landry either way as I'm reserving judgement until he has another contract, but this is patently false. 50 percent catch rate on a huge YPR is tremendously valuable.

[btv802]

If a player has a really high YPR that doesnt mean anything if hes only catching half those balls.

Not weighing on Landry either way as I'm reserving judgement until he has another contract, but this is patently false. 50 percent catch rate on a huge YPR is tremendously valuable.

Nailed it. Jarvis career to date is not the norm, he's a big statistical outlier. If you look at the list of guys that had over 400 targets in the first 4 years of their career, they are almost entirely high YPR/YPT with a catch rate ranging from 50-60%. Jarvis basically the only dude on the list who apparently earned it just by catching a lot of balls without being an intermediate/deep threat. Basically everything I see from historical standpoint makes it seem like the high catch rate and low YPR/YPT are more situationally dependent and less likely to maintain the high target volume. Not saying it's impossible that Jarvis stays in a great situation for volume his entire career, just less likely than your prototypical outside receiver. Calling him a buy low seems to be ignoring that in my opinion. He hasn't demonstrated an ability to improve on his efficiency, it seems kinda unlikely his massive volume is sustainable and it's basically impossible that his volume improves. Despite a very consistently high output of fantasy points thus far in his career I still think there reason to believe he's a risky buy. Admittedly some of that risk is priced in, hence why he's not sitting as a WR1 in dynasty ADP.

[nathanq42]

I don't get why he has to have a high ypr or ypt to be valuable to an NFL team. A 7 ypt on a high volume guy means that if they just constantly throw to him they will keep moving the chains, which is super valuable

[Goddard]

I don't get why he has to have a high ypr or ypt to be valuable to an NFL team. A 7 ypt on a high volume guy means that if they just constantly throw to him they will keep moving the chains, which is super valuable

They almost use him as a RB with the short passes.

[btv802]

My guess is if you ask most NFL coaches if they'd rather have an effective running game to move the chains rather than rely on a short passing game for the simple fact that unlike a running play, a pass can result in an incompletion or an interception. Being able to control the time of possession can be a useful tool to help protect your defense, but again I bet most coaches would rather rely on their running game rather then a short passing game to accomplish that. Just ask Sean Payton who has one of the best QBs in the league at his disposal and has chosen to focus on improving his teams running game. All of this is ignoring the fact that time of possession isn't the point, scoring is the point and the Dolphins have been one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league while Jarvis has been the focal point. Guys like Jarvis typically don't get paid big money and there is a reason for that. Look at a list of the most targeted receivers of all time and none of them have been as inefficient as Jarvis. Look at a list of all time leaders in receiving yards and none of them have been as inefficient as Jarvis. To assume Jarvis can just keep doing what he is doing and maintain the status quo of target monster just doesn't make sense to me. Not impossible but def seems improbable.

I've been ranting a lot I know and I apologize for that. Was having this debate in my league's GroupMe and it kinda carried into this forum. I'll try to tone it down and can't wait until the Dolphins pay him $15mil/year and throw 200 balls at him next year!

[captain howdy]

Landry detractors have been broken records on him for years.
4 years in a row, 4 for 4, as a #1 or close to it.

And this year he got them touchdowns too.

People saying he won't keep it up...yeah, every off-season it's said, eventually you'll be right.

But I gotta say, not likely he gets less usage AFTER he gets a big contract from someone. Someone is going to seek him out for their team and/or keep him.

[Ghosted]

The whole Landry argument basically comes down to how you measure efficiency. I view him as being in-efficient. Others obviously view him as being extremely, or at least mildly, efficient. Both have statistics, or in some cases eye tests that capture things like "grit," to support their idea. Smart people that I respect have completely different thoughts on Landry than I do, and that's perfectly fine. I think ultimately the thing that will settle this debate will be his destination, although I'm also curious as to what his AAV will be with this contract. As an owner, I hope he stays in Miami. I don't think many teams will engineer their offense to run though such a limited player as the Dolphins have, but that's just my opinion.