Buy Low WR1 Candidates

[James McGhee]

If he's the next Steve Smith it wouldn't be all that bad.

That’s USC and New York Giants Steve Smith. Jarvis Landry is no Steve “Ice up son” Smith. Don’t compare them.

Ahh. My mistake.

[btv802]

These are Jarvis Landry’s all-time cohorts in terms of basic efficiency through first four years in their career, the best of the best. I mentioned Peter Warrick as best case statistical comp before. He finished his career in Arena football and the CFL. Not a strong list to be on overall. Not much in terms of guys that went on to bigger and better things because they weren’t being used properly, but maybe Jarvis is a big outlier here.

Well, he's got almost 1,500 yards more than the next man on that list. So it's probably safe to say he's an outlier or that there's a big difference between him and the others.

I think the point he was making was about the efficiency, sure he has more total yards but he also has way more targets and receptions, his efficiency is still way lower than you'd like to see for a guy with Landry's level of talent

Right. The primary difference between him and the rest of the guys on this list is even more volume with same mediocre production.

[btv802]

Ahh. My mistake.

No biggie I’m a big Smitty fan. One of my best buds is a Panthers season ticket holder.

[Jfever]

To be honest, I think some are convienantly dismissing way too many variables that have had major influences on Landry's efficiencyat Miami . Bottom line though, in ppr leagues or in the real NFL in today's game, a slot reliever that is tough, runs great routes, has good hands, is quite valuable. I don't see just some JAG when I watch him play. He is special. Maybe not in all measurable combine type drills, maybe not in height, weight, or long speed, but yes he's special. Watch him play. He is a baller, he's clutch, hes a tough as nails blocker who isn't afraid to get physical, and, he's clean off the field. I don't think his coaches think he is as replaceable as some fantasy folks do - which would explain the targets and involvement in his offense despite the less than ideal fantasy production vs target volume. He will get paid because of those real life football intangibles that every NFL coach can see.

[Goddard]

Well, he's got almost 1,500 yards more than the next man on that list. So it's probably safe to say he's an outlier or that there's a big difference between him and the others.

I think the point he was making was about the efficiency, sure he has more total yards but he also has way more targets and receptions, his efficiency is still way lower than you'd like to see for a guy with Landry's level of talent

Right. The primary difference between him and the rest of the guys on this list is even more volume with same mediocre production.

I get that, but I guess my point is, he continued to get those targets where those other players obviously stopped getting them. This is just a 4 year total and doesn't really breakdown when those players began having reduced targets. I'd guess it was much sooner than their 4th or 5th season...whereas Landry's just continues being steady and consistent...hence being the outlier.

[btv802]

I think the point he was making was about the efficiency, sure he has more total yards but he also has way more targets and receptions, his efficiency is still way lower than you'd like to see for a guy with Landry's level of talent

Right. The primary difference between him and the rest of the guys on this list is even more volume with same mediocre production.

I get that, but I guess my point is, he continued to get those targets where those other players obviously stopped getting them. This is just a 4 year total and doesn't really breakdown when those players began having reduced targets. I'd guess it was much sooner than their 4th or 5th season...whereas Landry's just continues being steady and consistent...hence being the outlier.

Technically, we don’t know yet if Jarvis will continue to get the targets. We have the benefit of hindsight on most of the guys on that list, and in general it didn’t turn out well, but Jarvis is TBD. That list is first four years of a receivers career which is where Jarvis currently stands. At this point historically he’s the best of the worst in terms of guys that got the volume early in their careers. Personally not a guy I’d want to buy high on.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

[btv802]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

He’s at the bottom of that list, but best response I’ve seen yet. Was waiting for somebody to point out something along those lines. Cheers.

[Ghosted]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

He’s at the bottom of that list, but best response I’ve seen yet. Was waiting for somebody to point out something along those lines. Cheers.

There was a huge debate over Landry pretty recently:

viewtopic.php?t=151433

[btv802]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

He’s at the bottom of that list, but best response I’ve seen yet. Was waiting for somebody to point out something along those lines. Cheers.

There was a huge debate over Landry pretty recently:

viewtopic.php?t=151433

Awesome thank you. I see I have some like minded individuals on this forum. I need to join that discussion. Apologies for banging on about it here.

[StableOfRBs]

I think the point he was making was about the efficiency, sure he has more total yards but he also has way more targets and receptions, his efficiency is still way lower than you'd like to see for a guy with Landry's level of talent

Right. The primary difference between him and the rest of the guys on this list is even more volume with same mediocre production.

I get that, but I guess my point is, he continued to get those targets where those other players obviously stopped getting them. This is just a 4 year total and doesn't really breakdown when those players began having reduced targets. I'd guess it was much sooner than their 4th or 5th season...whereas Landry's just continues being steady and consistent...hence being the outlier.

I think Landry is a really talented guy, he's a smart route runner who knows how to get open quick and is more than physical enough to fight for contested throws. I also think some of his poor efficiency can be attributed to how he's used by the coaches in Miami, the majority of the routes he'll run are short-yardage, high-percentage ones that don't lend themselves to a ton of yardage, at or after the catch.

That being said, I think there's a number of factors limiting his ability to be a #1, both in fantasy and for the Dolphins. None of these are the be-all-end-all and there are obviously players that have overcome similar obstacles to be studs but they're still obstacles nonetheless.

1. Like some have mentioned his athletic numbers leave a bit to be desired. He's got decent size at 5'11', 205 and he can definitely play more physical than his build but lacks the kind of height you'd want for a guy to get jump balls in the end zone like Julio/AJ Green/Michael Thomas which is part of the reason his TD numbers have been pretty low outside of this year. He ran a dreadful 4.77 40 at the combine and only improved it to a still bad 4.61 at his pro day, combined with a low vert, short broad and an awful 7.56 3-cone and it's very clear that Landry makes his hay using superior route-running, hands, and savvy to get himself open again other more athletic players. There's nothing wrong with that but it does limit his upside a bit and confines him as to where he can work on the field.

2. He's probably one of, if not, the best slot receiver in the NFL right now. This may not seem like a hindrance to production but in terms of becoming a WR1 for an NFL or fantasy team it means that he's heavily dependent on target volume to put up meaningful numbers (and yes he's had the volume so far but I'll get to that in a bit). His prowess in the short-middle area of the field also hamstrings him a bit in terms of where he lines up and what kind of routes he'll run. Sure he's more than capable of running deep and outside routes where he can get open despite his poor athleticism because he's a great football player, but coaches and OCs have no reason to move him to a primary/X-receiver role when he's just so good as a slot guy and would likely not produce outside like they'd want him too.

3. These first two issues basically lead into the third and that's volume. I know Landry has had very high target totals in his first 4 seasons and because of how good he is in the slot and as a receiver he's caught an impressively high amount of those targets. That being said the Dolphins have functioned over the past 4 season with almost no X-receiver. Devante Parker has done nothing but squander his opportunities and has struggled to stay healthy since he was drafted and I think the Dolphins heavily consider either drafting another guy to be the new primary/outside receiver or they try to add someone in FA like Watkins or ARob. If either of these things happen (which I think is likely since they need someone besides Landry if they ever hope to make the playoffs) then Landry should take a big hit in target share.

Given the nature of his role in the offense and how heavily tied to volume it is, it wouldn't surprise me to see his numbers drop back down around where they were in his rookie season (112 targets for 84-758-5). That's not to say that he won't be a valuable fantasy asset, especially in PPR, but I just don't think guys with his skillset can really be WR1s without heavy, heavy volume. This is also all assuming that Landry remains in Miami, although I think they'll do their best to keep him.

[ericanadian]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

THANK YOU!!! I thought I was taking crazy pills when everyone just seemed to accept YPR as a valid measurement of efficiency...

[Goddard]

Can we bring this back to the topic though? In terms of the question asked by the OP, Landry has easily been a WR1 and can be had for cheaper than that. I'm a little shocked we're picking on him over some of the other names mentioned, when a lot of them have never even sniffed WR1 numbers and yet are sometimes valued as one.

[Mjvb5]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

THANK YOU!!! I thought I was taking crazy pills when everyone just seemed to accept YPR as a valid measurement of efficiency...

There we go, I really don't think an NFL team cares what you do on a per reception basis as that doesn't equate the actual risk associated with going to the player. If a player has a really high YPR that doesnt mean anything if hes only catching half those balls. Landry has one of the highest catch rates in the NFL and that means these low risk low reward throws are also incredible at getting your team into a situation to get a first and keep things moving

[btv802]

Regarding Landry- yards per reception is not as good of a measure of efficiency as yards per target.

Here’s the list of receivers that put up 4000 yards and 7 yards per target through their first 4 seasons.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Jx61x

You’ll see that almost every player on that list is a stud.

I think Landry is a limited player who still has special talents. He probably wouldn’t flourish on the outside given his lack of top-end athleticism, but on the flip side he’s been remarkably consistent despite poor QB play.

I’d be really worried about him if he went to a completely different system where he might be put in a different role, but I think he’s similar to Welker in that he’ll thrive as long as he can stay in the slot.

THANK YOU!!! I thought I was taking crazy pills when everyone just seemed to accept YPR as a valid measurement of efficiency...

Easy guys, nobody is taking crazy pills it's just an interesting topic and helpful context. There are ways to massage your search query's on Pro Football Reference that make almost anybody look good or bad, but at the end of the day it's still interesting stuff. Somebody above mentioned Jarvis looking good from a yards/target perspective. It really depends whether or not you are putting him in his proper context. If you really grind Jarvis down to a small list of cohorts that match his yards/target efficiency closest, this is what you'll see. This search is guys who in first four years of their career had over 400 targets and had under 7.25 yds/tgt.



Again not a super impressive list. You can adjust the threshold so that it'll include a long list of more traditional outside receivers who had both higher yd/rec and yd/tgt...but Jarvis will be the absolute worst on that list in terms of efficiency and I'm not sure he really belongs for any other reason than volume.

As somebody mentioned, dude does catch most of the balls thrown his way...but when he's getting some of the highest volume of short passes in the history of the NFL he better be catching more balls than the average dude. If there is one reason that his volume has any possibility of being remotely sustainable it's that catch rate for sure.