Buy Low WR1 Candidates

[StableOfRBs]

I would say Yards per Route Run is probably the most indicative stat for receivers as getting open consistently counts. That said, not worth the effort to dig up that sort of information.

It is however, worth pointing out that Landry had a Brandon Marshall type 7.46 YPT prior to this year. Cutler & Tannehill are both garbage QBs, but Cutler has no accuracy short, while Tannehill has no accuracy deep. Landry had a career worst 6.1 YPT with Cutler. Good news is that the QB with which he rolled out a 7.46 YPT is coming back next year. I think that's the definition of a buy-low, no?

I didn't watch him play this year so I can't say what he looked like on the Dolphins but Scott Barrett put out this chart from before the season about Cutler: https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/sta ... 1624918016 Cutler is actually at or slightly above average on short throws compared to the rest of the league and is garbage when throwing deep anywhere but to his right. Honestly I thought it would've been the opposite like most people.

Also it's not really a buy-low if nobody is going to part with him on the cheap. The asking price for Landry is still going to be an early-mid 1st+ which is way more than I'd pay for him considering he has about as much upside as 2/3 of the other receivers being mentioned in this thread who are much, much cheaper.

[captain howdy]

If the name of the game was ‘total past performance and add it together’ then this would make sense. Unfortunately the future is an unknown. Every season things happen that many did not see coming. Perhaps some of them were seen by some, or had signs they were coming, you just had to consider the alternative outcomes. Landry’s Future is one such uncertainty. I wouldn’t consider Landry to be a guarantee to maintain the exact same production he’s provided given upcoming changing variables. Thus the discussion. If you feel it is a certainty, then by all means go out and get Landry everywhere and claim those points as yours. That said, the discussion has validity.

The arguments against Landry have been the same for these past few off-seasons. I get the past points argument.. but, isn't that what drives the price of EVERY football player? Past production or future potential, or some combination of the two.

Landry is record setting, and people comp to peter warrick and devone bess. He's record setting. Let that sink in. I only bring that up bc people are going out of their way to excuse his points with advanced stats or comps or athletic profiles from years ago. I just don't follow.

One could have made the exact same arguments against Landry 2 years ago, sold, and then missed out on 2 years of wr 1 production . Doesn't that make you nervous?

As far as Landry's abilities on the field, it's part his usage, which I get is being considered ..but to me, it's just not being given enough weight.

As far as his athletic profile. If he was so limited, why has he been record setting productive? He has at most times been miamis number 1 and sole weapon. Guarded and keyed against by the defenses best...yet he still gets his? And this year he did it in the red zone which is one of the hardest things for a wr to do.

Are there examples of wrs, number 1 wrs on their teams..getting paid, then not being used? Why would the team, Miami or otherwise, lock up Landry knowing exactly what he is, then not use him?
I can't think of any, I'm not being stubborn, I really tried to think of some.


I feel like I'm in bizarro world.

Fwiw, I know you and others aren't "hating" on Landry.

Not trying to sound like a jackass because I literally don't know what you mean, but what records? I did some googling and the only thing I could find is that he has more receptions in his first 4 seasons than any other player in NFL history.


. He's a great player, but he's not a true #1.

So, like I said. Ignore record setting. That's fine. You make my point. You "literally" had no idea he was historically productive.


Not a "true" number 1..except for by the points scored.

[StableOfRBs]

The arguments against Landry have been the same for these past few off-seasons. I get the past points argument.. but, isn't that what drives the price of EVERY football player? Past production or future potential, or some combination of the two.

Landry is record setting, and people comp to peter warrick and devone bess. He's record setting. Let that sink in. I only bring that up bc people are going out of their way to excuse his points with advanced stats or comps or athletic profiles from years ago. I just don't follow.

One could have made the exact same arguments against Landry 2 years ago, sold, and then missed out on 2 years of wr 1 production . Doesn't that make you nervous?

As far as Landry's abilities on the field, it's part his usage, which I get is being considered ..but to me, it's just not being given enough weight.

As far as his athletic profile. If he was so limited, why has he been record setting productive? He has at most times been miamis number 1 and sole weapon. Guarded and keyed against by the defenses best...yet he still gets his? And this year he did it in the red zone which is one of the hardest things for a wr to do.

Are there examples of wrs, number 1 wrs on their teams..getting paid, then not being used? Why would the team, Miami or otherwise, lock up Landry knowing exactly what he is, then not use him?
I can't think of any, I'm not being stubborn, I really tried to think of some.


I feel like I'm in bizarro world.

Fwiw, I know you and others aren't "hating" on Landry.

Not trying to sound like a jackass because I literally don't know what you mean, but what records? I did some googling and the only thing I could find is that he has more receptions in his first 4 seasons than any other player in NFL history.


. He's a great player, but he's not a true #1.

So, like I said. Ignore record setting. That's fine. You make my point. You "literally" had no idea he was historically productive.


Not a "true" number 1..except for by the points scored.

Which is hugely tied to his target share because he's so inefficient. Which he's been lucky to have so far because he's been the only receiver on the dolphins who's been even above average. Which is likely to change since the dolphins need a legit number 1 in their offense if they want to get anywhere as a franchise. Which means his target share will go down. Which means his numbers will go down.

I addressed all that in my previous post.

[captain howdy]

Not trying to sound like a jackass because I literally don't know what you mean, but what records? I did some googling and the only thing I could find is that he has more receptions in his first 4 seasons than any other player in NFL history.


. He's a great player, but he's not a true #1.

So, like I said. Ignore record setting. That's fine. You make my point. You "literally" had no idea he was historically productive.


Not a "true" number 1..except for by the points scored.

Which is hugely tied to his target share because he's so inefficient. Which he's been lucky to have so far because he's been the only receiver on the dolphins who's been even above average. Which is likely to change since the dolphins need a legit number 1 in their offense if they want to get anywhere as a franchise. Which means his target share will go down. Which means his numbers will go down.

I addressed all that in my previous post.

Everyone agrees that Miami has only Landry at wr, and has no other options, etc.

..but ignores that maybe, just maybe(sarcastically meaning probably) that has a bit to do with how he's used and what he does with it? Like maybe if he goes somewhere with another option, or Miami gets another option, 3 defenders wouldn't be able to swarm him immediately And the other teams top corner wouldn't just simply follow him.

All your "which means" are just so biased. You see how it could work the other way, right? Just as simply?


Edit to add:
Landry was 2nd in yards after catch amongst NFL wrs in 2015....2016..AND 2017

[FiremanEd]

Being in the slot, Landry doesn’t face every teams top corner. Many top guys don’t play slot. He gets the slot corner, which may or may not (likely not) be the teams top option at the position. Sherman is the classic example. I’d say Landry is a similar case in that he’d be underwhelming (at least relative to him in the slot, perhaps an average outside WR instead) playing outside.

If people want to ignore that he is extremely highly volume based, given he doesn’t produce high yardage and is capped at TDs (this year a Ceiling most likely), then that’s on them. The volume may or may not continue short term, but when he loses 10-20 targets, you aren’t getting a WR1.

To the overall thread, many owners will consider him a WR1 and not sell cheap. He’s been rewarding them. Why cash out low? As such, he’s not a buy low WR1. He’s a guy likely valued as a WR1, which for some is just, while for others is an overestimation.

I like consistency. I like what he’s done. I’d love it on any team. I just see a lot of risk now that he’s a FA and the fact that he is so incredibly high volume dependent given the low probability it is offset through other means. I don’t see him surpassing this years PPR output in the future.

[lukkynumber13]

Guys, take this stuff to another thread. Half of the 11 pages are on Landry...

[TheChicken]

Landry the volume king ... Receptions and Forum posts!

[clarion contrarion]

my quick take landry has proven to be a PPR wr1 but if he is your 1 you aren't winning many ( if any) titles make him your wr2 get a real1 and then you position yourself to be a league power assuming the rest of your roster measures up . Despite loving him coming out of LSU even screwed the pooch on a thread saying I liked him more than fellow bayou bengal OBJ , I have owned zero shares as I just think to truly contend you need a better wr1 .

[btv802]

Sorry guys I am a Dolphins fan and I’m really interested in statistics. I am probably to blame for this extended Landry debate. Mostly came in really looking for someone to give me a really good reason to believe that Landry is worth paying a lot of money because I’m worried that Miami will do it. When most of the responses I see are, “but fantasy points! “I’m not sure I can get behind it. It feels like digging a little deeper, looking at what he actually accomplished, breaking down how he accomplished it and asking yourself if that really seems sustainable is a useful conversation to have. It seems like there are a few people that are really uncomfortable with that conversation and I apologize for that.

[captain howdy]

I think your disconnect is this is a fantasy football forum..not an NFL forum and certainly not a Miami dolphins forum.