2018 Rookie WRs Thread

[OhCruelestRanter]

overhyped: Calvin Ridley. 23 year old slot receivers with underwhelming production do not deserve to be top 15 nfl draft picks

underlooked: DJ Moore and Michael Gallup. Both extremely productive at young ages with above average athleticism.

But considering Alabama only passed for roughly 2500 passing yards on the season and Ridley had over 900 receiving yards, you can see why his numbers may look 'underwhelming' but in reality he owns over 35% of the teams receiving yards which is well above average and is one of the biggest correlations with NFL success. For reference, the 35% of teams receiving yards is right around the 70th percentile for college dominator.

But I do agree with age being a concern.

Last I checked, age doesn’t correlate with success, but leaving before you exhaust your eligibility does.

Anybody have any data on how age of a prospect when they’re drafted correlates with success?

[Sisyphus]

I think Sutton is a guy I can and will easily target impatient owners in a year or two(especially 2). People can preach all day long about their long game, but when it comes down to it will unload for pennies on the dollar when he is wasting away on their bench.

You may be right. I intellectually know I should not be disappointed in Corey Davis after taking him 1.02 last year, but emotionally I am wearing thin and the right offer could get him from me much easier today that back in August.

Thanks for the reminder to stay patient.... maybe I’ll go buy him elsewhere now too.

[Cameron Giles]

Calvin Ridley is a good football player, even if he's a lot older than his opponents. His routes are sick.

Overall, I still don't like this group of receivers. Ridley, Sutton and Kirk are probably the best, but I'm not sure what that means in a wider scope.

[clarion contrarion]

just a word of caution , if you trade corey davis now then just trade all of your picks . He came from 2nd tier conference and missed all the pre draft workouts and you still took him very highly I assume . Several rookies have as of late took off from the start but in general guys grow into themselves after a year or two. If you cannot be patient enough to hold a prospect of his ilk then, perhaps trading all of your picks for proven assets is the style you like best.
I was an outspoken critic of him being over rated last year but bet your bottom dollar that in the 1 league I took him, his price has went up not down, especially after his week 16 game against rams solid def. He was dinged most of the year and that passing offense was a mess but in 2016 mariota was slinging it all over in that 8 game stretch w/ 21 td passes , that is worth waiting for IMHO!

[FiremanEd]

I like Kirk, though the level of 'like' from a draft perspective will be contingent on where he is being drafted (rookie drafts and NFL). I'm hoping that 2nd round applies to both, and makes him manageable to acquire. I don't have WR1 expectations, but would hope for a WR3 with WR2 upside. Intrigued to see his Combine to truly gauge his measurables. Admittedly, I did think Landry for some reason when watching him, though he seemed to have more speed. I'm not saying their games are identical, as i don't know enough about him at this juncture, but rather that something made my mind see similarity (perhaps body type, screen pass, YAC?).

Ridley makes me uncomfortable, and I don't have nearly the same 'like' for Sutton as i did Corey Davis at this same point in time last year. Davis looked more fluid in his movements, while Sutton seems stiffer. I'm more uneasy about where i'd draft him, while i was highly on board with Davis (results TBD).

Dion Cain does nothing for me.

[Ghosted]

I like Kirk, though the level of 'like' from a draft perspective will be contingent on where he is being drafted (rookie drafts and NFL). I'm hoping that 2nd round applies to both, and makes him manageable to acquire. I don't have WR1 expectations, but would hope for a WR3 with WR2 upside. Intrigued to see his Combine to truly gauge his measurables. Admittedly, I did think Landry for some reason when watching him, though he seemed to have more speed. I'm not saying their games are identical, as i don't know enough about him at this juncture, but rather that something made my mind see similarity (perhaps body type, screen pass, YAC?).

Ridley makes me uncomfortable, and I don't have nearly the same 'like' for Sutton as i did Corey Davis at this same point in time last year. Davis looked more fluid in his movements, while Sutton seems stiffer. I'm more uneasy about where i'd draft him, while i was highly on board with Davis (results TBD).

Dion Cain does nothing for me.

Sutton is bigger than Davis, so it's hard to compare their fluidity. Sutton is actually pretty impressive after the catch for a man his size.

[UATahoe]

Ridley's biggest problem has been his QB play. Hurts just hasnt been able to get it done this year. Ridley is consistently WAO but Jalen just hasnt been able to get him the ball. Couple that with a new offensive coordinator this year who is the polar opposite of Lane Kiffin, i would caution people who are writing Ridley off due to production this year or his age. I dont really get the age thing either. He is 1-2 years older than most prospects coming out but i fail to see where that is a big deal.

[Lotto4Life]

I've owned Kirk in NCAA FFL the last two seasons I think. Saw where somebody had him 1st round in NFL draft. Gotta say it confuses me because he was pretty terrible for a guy that highly thought of, no matter his QB situation. He of course blew up in their bowl game, long after he put up a dud for me in the finals.

[UATahoe]

Kirk was hyped from the day he stepped on campus and he has just never really impressed me much each year Bama played him. Looks like he should be a beast but just never saw it.

[bsp27]

overhyped: Calvin Ridley. 23 year old slot receivers with underwhelming production do not deserve to be top 15 nfl draft picks

underlooked: DJ Moore and Michael Gallup. Both extremely productive at young ages with above average athleticism.

But considering Alabama only passed for roughly 2500 passing yards on the season and Ridley had over 900 receiving yards, you can see why his numbers may look 'underwhelming' but in reality he owns over 35% of the teams receiving yards which is well above average and is one of the biggest correlations with NFL success. For reference, the 35% of teams receiving yards is right around the 70th percentile for college dominator.

But I do agree with age being a concern.

yes, his dominance in terms of his offense is above average, but at age 23, it should be around the 90th percentile. 35% isn't enough for a 23 year old.

[bsp27]

overhyped: Calvin Ridley. 23 year old slot receivers with underwhelming production do not deserve to be top 15 nfl draft picks

underlooked: DJ Moore and Michael Gallup. Both extremely productive at young ages with above average athleticism.

But considering Alabama only passed for roughly 2500 passing yards on the season and Ridley had over 900 receiving yards, you can see why his numbers may look 'underwhelming' but in reality he owns over 35% of the teams receiving yards which is well above average and is one of the biggest correlations with NFL success. For reference, the 35% of teams receiving yards is right around the 70th percentile for college dominator.

But I do agree with age being a concern.

Last I checked, age doesn’t correlate with success, but leaving before you exhaust your eligibility does.

Anybody have any data on how age of a prospect when they’re drafted correlates with success?

Breakout age is the most telling of wr success in the NFL. It identified players like Juju Smith-Schuster, Deandre Hopkins and Allen Robinson as future stars, while it presented massive red flags for players like Kevin White.

[UATahoe]

overhyped: Calvin Ridley. 23 year old slot receivers with underwhelming production do not deserve to be top 15 nfl draft picks

underlooked: DJ Moore and Michael Gallup. Both extremely productive at young ages with above average athleticism.

But considering Alabama only passed for roughly 2500 passing yards on the season and Ridley had over 900 receiving yards, you can see why his numbers may look 'underwhelming' but in reality he owns over 35% of the teams receiving yards which is well above average and is one of the biggest correlations with NFL success. For reference, the 35% of teams receiving yards is right around the 70th percentile for college dominator.

But I do agree with age being a concern.

yes, his dominance in terms of his offense is above average, but at age 23, it should be around the 90th percentile. 35% isn't enough for a 23 year old.

This make no sense. If the kid was on a bad football team, yes. Not on an Alabama team loaded with top tier talent. We have 3 other kids on the roster with every bit the talent of Ridley and we are 5 deep at tailback. Only so many touches to go around and there is plenty of talent at every position.

[UATahoe]

But considering Alabama only passed for roughly 2500 passing yards on the season and Ridley had over 900 receiving yards, you can see why his numbers may look 'underwhelming' but in reality he owns over 35% of the teams receiving yards which is well above average and is one of the biggest correlations with NFL success. For reference, the 35% of teams receiving yards is right around the 70th percentile for college dominator.

But I do agree with age being a concern.

Last I checked, age doesn’t correlate with success, but leaving before you exhaust your eligibility does.

Anybody have any data on how age of a prospect when they’re drafted correlates with success?

Breakout age is the most telling of wr success in the NFL. It identified players like Juju Smith-Schuster, Deandre Hopkins and Allen Robinson as future stars, while it presented massive red flags for players like Kevin White.

You realize he didnt enroll at Bama until he was almost 21 right? Due to some crazy age cutoff limit that caused him to delay in High school.

[bsp27]

But considering Alabama only passed for roughly 2500 passing yards on the season and Ridley had over 900 receiving yards, you can see why his numbers may look 'underwhelming' but in reality he owns over 35% of the teams receiving yards which is well above average and is one of the biggest correlations with NFL success. For reference, the 35% of teams receiving yards is right around the 70th percentile for college dominator.

But I do agree with age being a concern.

yes, his dominance in terms of his offense is above average, but at age 23, it should be around the 90th percentile. 35% isn't enough for a 23 year old.

This make no sense. If the kid was on a bad football team, yes. Not on an Alabama team loaded with top tier talent. We have 3 other kids on the roster with every bit the talent of Ridley and we are 5 deep at tailback. Only so many touches to go around and there is plenty of talent at every position.

Well according to you, it sounds like you think Ridley is a top tier talent himself. The difference is, that he is several years older than his teammates. If a player is supposedly a top tier talent AND several years older than his teammates, he must have a higher market share than 35%.

You should read this article, which explains breakout age better than I do: https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/ ... -scouting/

[UATahoe]

Just dont agree with the ideology of your post. Would totally agree if the kid was playing for Memphis or New Mexico or something crazy like that. But he isnt. He is on a team that is more geared towards spreading the ball around. Ridley accounted for more than 35% of the passing yards. You cant just look at numbers and make assumptions. 500 of those 2500 passing yards were from the backup QB. This also means the rest of the starters were out of the game as well because the game was out of hand. So by that metric alone he is garnering 50% of the teams total passing yards in a run first offense with limited QB play.