2018 RB rookie discussion

[cweds]

I don't currently see it either with Jones. I think he looks good in open space once he gets to the 2nd level but to me he struggles to get there. Isn't very big either. I see another Abdullah at the most

I think we'd all be quite disappointed if he ended up producing like Abdullah. However, his size profiles similarly to Jamaal Charles and close to Shady when he came out. Not saying RJ will produce like those two, that's a pretty lofty expectation, just noting it's in the realm of possibilities. His combine weigh-in will certainly factor into his value.

[Chwf3rd]

Thought I would post my RB ranks on here to start some debate:

1. Saquan Barkely

Value: Top 5

Games Watched: Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan, Washington

Great burst, amazing lateral agility + quickness, can go down too easily on contact but flashes ability to run through arm tackles, incredible patience, elite receiving ability, awesome balance, falls forward when hit.

2 Derrius Guice, LSU


Value: Top 20

Games Watched: Tennessee, Florida, Miss St, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas A&M (2016)

Elite power and toughness, good patience, sufficient breakaway speed, runs through arm tackles w/ ease and keeps legs churning upon contact, awesome balance, good lateral agility, potential vision issues, not used as receiver.

3 Ronald Jones, USC

Value: Round 1

Games Watched: Stanford, UCLA, Texas, Colorado

speed and quickness immediately jumps off screen, explodes through hole, surprising balance, good vision, avoid first contact via lateral cut, quick accelerator, very tough runner despite lean frame.

4 John Kelly, Tennessee

Value: Round 2

Games Watched: Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Kentucky (2016)

Elite balance and twitch should immediately translate. Awesome lateral mover w/ great jump cut. Excellent receiving ability. LeSean McCoy esque blend of balance and quickness. More explosive than fast. Dances behind the LOS a little too much at times but improved in that area in 2017, showing more decisiveness to immediately hit a hole with power.

5 Mark Walton, Miami

Value: Round 2

Games Watched: Florida St, Duke, Toledo, BCU, Florida St (2016), North Carolina (2016), Virginia (2016)

Ridiculous lateral agility and twitch, really tough inside runner despite size, solid in pass pro, great receiver, small size and not elite straight line runner, can look to bounce things outside too much, not elite vision. Going under the radar because he injured his ankle vs Toledo and only played two games thereafter while looking like a shell of himself in both.

6 Kerryon Johnson, Auburn

Value: Round 2

Games Watched: Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, Miss St, UCF

Awesome balance and patience, powerful runner, some wiggle but not great laterally, falls forward upon contact, runs downhill once he makes a decision, high-cut frame, more smooth than explosive, patient style can get him in trouble as he'll dance behind the LOS instead of hitting the hole hard once it opens.

7 Sony Michel, Georgia

Value: Round 3

Games Watched: Auburn, Notre Dame, Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee

Reminds me of Lamar Miller. Strong explosive downhill runner w/ great combo of speed and power, not much wiggle and not great laterally, one cut and explodes up field w/ speed and power, vision needs work.

8 Rashad Penny, San Diego St

Value: Round 3

Games Watched: Stanford, New Mexico St

Awesome vision, runs too high, smoothly bounces forward off cut & subtle elusiveness, bad in pass pro, falls forward upon contact, runs through arm tackles, not particularly powerful nor is he a great athlete.

9 Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss

Value: Round 3

Games Watched: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU

High recruit who struggled with injuries early in his career but productive whenever he saw the field. Great combination of size and speed. Big and powerful inside runner who runs with great pad level, great jump cut and vision/patience. One cut explosive runner.
Older prospect.

10 Royce Freeman, Oregon

Value: Round 3

Games Watched: Washington, Arizona, Stanford (2016)

Elite vision and great size. Shifty with very quick movements once he finds an open lane. Not a great athlete but sufficient long speed. Might be scheme dependent with a zone running scheme but I can see him easily putting up Alfred Morris esque production if he gets early playing time in a zone scheme.

11 Josh Adams, Notre Dame

Value: Round 4

Games Watched: LSU, USC

Good size/speed combo, keeps legs churning upon contact, big and tall, poor wiggle + lateral agility, decent balance, good vision, not a great athlete, benefitted from great OL, good job making himself small through creases.

12 Nick Chubb, Georgia

Value: Round 4

Games Watched: Auburn, Tennessee, Miss St, South Carolina, Oklahoma

Big north-south runner, shows great patience and vision, not very creative, lacks lateral agility and wiggle, has the vision to see the right hole but lacks the explosion to take advantage.


13 Bo Scarbrough, Alabama

Value: Round 4

Games Watched: Florida St, Fresno St, Auburn (2016), Washington (2016), Clemson (2016)

Big and tall runner, north-south power. Falls forward upon contact and maintains good balance. Great long speed for size. Not fluid and no lateral wiggle. Playoff games from 2016 are 1st Round tape.

14 Kalen Ballage, Arizona St

Value: Day 3

Games Watched: NC St, Washington, UCLA

Reminds me of Latavious Murray w/ receiving ability. Size/speed prospect. Goes down easily in open field and has little creativity but shows ability to use size well and churn legs to get extra yards when moving downhill. Slow laterally but explosive in straight line.

15 Ito Smith, Southern Miss

Value: Day 3

Games Watched: Florida St, LSU (2016)

Tarik Cohen lite. Juke stick movement, crazy explosion. Good patience and vision and good receiver. Tiny.

16 Akrum Wadley, Iowa

Value: Day 3

Games Watched: Ohio St, Wisconsin, Nebraska

Tiny size: under 190lb. Very quick and slithery lateral ability makes guys miss with ease. Good patience and vision. Only translatable trait is lateral quickness.

[Valhalla]

Thought I would post my RB ranks on here to start some debate:

Solid post above. Definitely going against the common forum views, making it your own.

[kris_kapsner]

Thought I would post my RB ranks on here to start some debate:

Solid post above. Definitely going against the common forum views, making it your own.

Agreed. I love it when people form their own views on players and aren't afraid to go against the "group think" views on players.

I disagree with some of the rankings. But that's ok. It's great to see how deep this RB class is. I think there will be 10-12 RB's who significantly contribute to NFL teams and fantasy football from this class over the next few years.

[spotxc]

I wonder what happens if royce freeman surprises at the combine with really good numbers

[Defender]

I wonder what happens if royce freeman surprises at the combine with really good numbers

He could put himself in the conversation to be the top option after the big 5 (Barkley, Guice, RoJo, Sony, & Chubb) in rookie drafts. Certainly seems possible.

[Chwf3rd]

I wonder what happens if royce freeman surprises at the combine with really good numbers

He could put himself in the conversation to be the top option after the big 5 (Barkley, Guice, RoJo, Sony, & Chubb) in rookie drafts. Certainly seems possible.

I really hope the consensus agrees with you and puts Chubb in the top 5 so it pushes good players down.

[nathanq42]

I have Royce right after chubb at 5&6

1) Barkley (not going to bother looking)
2) Guice (haven't looked into him because 1.02 said he is for sure taking him, but have heard grumblings he is nothing special)
3) Michel
4) Rojo (I like Rojo and Michel a lot based on speed and ability at college level, would like to see them weight in at 210+ and still be in low 4.4s)
5) Chubb (depends on the combine and landing spot)
6) Royce (good-great back, not incredible athlete)
7) kerryon (see Royce Freeman)

[DJB]

That's excellent work Chwf3rd ! !!

[SteveVolk]

I think Guice looks great. He runs like his hair is on fire and the defense is blocking his path to the lake. I hear some people saying Barkley ain't all that, but he has Shady's moves and man is he a weapon out of the backfield. So I go Barkley 1, Guice 2 and Michel 3. Man, I hope he gets the right landing spot because I agree with the Kamara comp, big time. Chubb kind of worries me. He looked not much more to me than "big" this season, and I need to see more of Jones so right now I'd go Freeman and then Penny, so yes, this draft goes an easy five deep of really good prospects and someone is gonna take Chubb and probably Jones, too. A 1.07 pick doesn't look so bad this year.

[Chwf3rd]

Everyone here should watch John Kelly vs Florida and Mark Walton vs Toledo.

[kadun2]

Everyone here should watch John Kelly vs Florida and Mark Walton vs Toledo.

Thanks for the heads up

[lukkynumber13]

Everyone here should watch John Kelly vs Florida and Mark Walton vs Toledo.

Thanks for the heads up

Just did. Man, Walton truly does have some impressive film... I just wonder how NFL teams will view him given his size and injury history.

Kelly, I'm not sure. He's a good back, and can be fun to watch, but I don't see much of a fantasy asset at the next level, unless EVERYTHING lines up perfectly for him to have success.

[James McGhee]

Everyone here should watch John Kelly vs Florida and Mark Walton vs Toledo.

Liked the Walton tape! Watched a few more in addition to Toledo. I agree with your assessment. I'm interested to see his 40 time because his lateral agility and explosion look really good but his top end appears to be lacking that elite speed. Not a huge issue but I usually like my smaller backs to be fast. I do like that he's willing to run between the tackles and lower his pads at the point of contact. I would personally rate him above Kelly.

[Chwf3rd]

Everyone here should watch John Kelly vs Florida and Mark Walton vs Toledo.

Thanks for the heads up

Just did. Man, Walton truly does have some impressive film... I just wonder how NFL teams will view him given his size and injury history.

Kelly, I'm not sure. He's a good back, and can be fun to watch, but I don't see much of a fantasy asset at the next level, unless EVERYTHING lines up perfectly for him to have success.

Walton injured his ankle during the Toledo game so his two games after that aren't very good.

I love Kelly's balance and explosion/quickness. I think Walton will test as the better athlete but Kelly's balance reminds me of Kareem Hunt.

I'm not sure either have the size to become bellcows but both can be very productive in a Kamara type of role. I think you're right though in that it'll depend alot on situation like it is w/ smaller backs usually, if Kamara hadn't gone to the Saints he probably wouldn't have done what he did last year.