2018 RB rookie discussion

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ninotoreS
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:36 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:29 pm Do you think KJ looks like NCAA Bell or NFL Bell? I don't think he looks like either, but there's a big difference in my mind between the two.
If you're only referring to physical appearance, then heck no, KJ doesn't look much like Bell at any point. Bell was like 230lbs coming out of Michigan State, and KJ is bow-legged with a narrow base and short torso, also unlike Bell. And long arms.

But again, when people make the Bell comp, they're not talking about appearance, they're talking only about style.

I think the Bell comp comes up so often because KJ just doesn't really look like any recent NFL RBs (not even McFadden, who had wider shoulders and no bow-legged gait), so it forces evaluators to cite only KJ's run style when searching for a comparable.

I saw a Fantasypros article doing a blind testing numbers comparison for KJ, and it came up with a hybrid of Jay Ajayi and Shonn Greene. Regardless of what one thinks of those players, that the blind numbers conjure those two as comps for KJ in and of itself demonstrates how strange KJ is. I think we can all agree he doesn't look much like either of those players. About the only distinct visual trait he has in common with either guy is Jay's bow-leggedness.

Objectively, KJ is pretty unique in physical profile, especially for an RB taken 43rd overall. If he's successful in the NFL, he'll be someone that eventually establishes an all new, original mold for future comparisons.
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:16 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:36 pm I saw a Fantasypros article doing a blind testing numbers comparison for KJ, and it came up with a hybrid of Jay Ajayi and Shonn Greene. Regardless of what one thinks of those players, that the blind numbers conjure those two as comps for KJ in and of itself demonstrates how strange KJ is. I think we can all agree he doesn't look much like either of those players. About the only distinct visual trait he has in common with either guy is Jay's bow-leggedness.
Those comps aren't very accurate, I mean just to start things off Shonn Greene is 14 lbs heavier. Ajayi is also heavier and significantly more athletic. I have no idea what a "hybrid" can inform you of. Factoring in draft capital etc, the closest comp would probably be Alvin Kamara. Montee Ball, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams share similarities but also some differences. If we start to venture into the 4th round maybe Mike Davis or Kenneth Dixon.

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby whodunnit » Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:47 pm

Everyone sleeping on Freeman I see... I honestly think he's going to end up being a top 4 back out of this class. As of now I have him as my 2nd/3rd behind Barkley and right on par with Chubb. Guice right behind them
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby kris_kapsner » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:37 am

GLSmk wrote: Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:47 pm Everyone sleeping on Freeman I see... I honestly think he's going to end up being a top 4 back out of this class. As of now I have him as my 2nd/3rd behind Barkley and right on par with Chubb. Guice right behind them
Very interesting take.

I'm higher on Chubb than most as well. Just an elite skill set in my opinion. I was also VERY high on Freeman prior to the draft as well. I had him in the same group of RB's with KJ and actually had Ronald Jones behind Freeman....still do.
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QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby ninotoreS » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:04 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:16 pm Those comps aren't very accurate, I mean just to start things off Shonn Greene is 14 lbs heavier. Ajayi is also heavier and significantly more athletic. I have no idea what a "hybrid" can inform you of. Factoring in draft capital etc, the closest comp would probably be Alvin Kamara. Montee Ball, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams share similarities but also some differences. If we start to venture into the 4th round maybe Mike Davis or Kenneth Dixon.
You're missing the point? And your suggested comps are even further off from aligning neatly with KJ's. Which underscores said point.

The point: KJ's profile has no neat comparisons. His closest testing number comps still aren't very close when he's considered both visually and metrically. He's an odd duck.
Ajayi is... significantly more athletic.
The difference in their testing numbers only comes down to a minor difference in agility score and a low bench-press score by KJ (which seems to be meaningless considering the times he's violently grabbed and thrown down tacklers with one arm, and his effective punch in pass-protection).

Beyond the narrow basis of the dubious faux-SPARQ calculation by playerprofiler.com (faux because they don't use the real SPARQ formula), the case is all in favor of Kerryon.

KJ was an all-state basketball player that can comfortably leap over linemen at the goal-line, return kick-offs, throw passes in wildcat sets, and do things like this. Jay played soccer as a kid, and that's about it for his athletic resume beyond the basics of being a 2-down running-back.

And for the record, according to true SPARQ, Ajayi's score is 127.6, and Kerryon's is 125.3.

I own Ajayi in dynasty, and if you check my post history you'll see that one of his threads is my most active ever. So I'm not a Jay Train hater. But the assertion he's "significantly more athletic" than Johnson is difficult to support. Ajayi may or may not be better at being a pro football running-back, but that isn't the same thing.
GLSmk wrote: Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:47 pm Everyone sleeping on Freeman I see... I honestly think he's going to end up being a top 4 back out of this class. As of now I have him as my 2nd/3rd behind Barkley and right on par with Chubb. Guice right behind them
I have really tried to like Freeman. But after a lot of study, I worry there's nothing truly special about him. That said, he's 3-down capable and if he's granted volume by Denver, he could definitely end up top 4 from this class. He's got one of the more favorable situations for immediate rookie success; I won't be shocked if he gets 250 touches this year and is more fantasy valuable in '18 than most of the RBs going before him.
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:42 am

ninotoreS wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:04 pm
GLSmk wrote: Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:47 pm Everyone sleeping on Freeman I see... I honestly think he's going to end up being a top 4 back out of this class. As of now I have him as my 2nd/3rd behind Barkley and right on par with Chubb. Guice right behind them
I have really tried to like Freeman. But after a lot of study, I worry there's nothing truly special about him. That said, he's 3-down capable and if he's granted volume by Denver, he could definitely end up top 4 from this class. He's got one of the more favorable situations for immediate rookie success; I won't be shocked if he gets 250 touches this year and is more fantasy valuable in '18 than most of the RBs going before him.
This is where I am with Freeman. I think he's good value in the late 1st, but I don't think he's good enough to go early 1st. He's got the opportunity and enough ability to produce, but I don't think he'll be a home run.

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby Johnny Canuck » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:40 am

a bit off topic, but as far as later RB rookies go, I feel like Hines is a solid player to target in the late/mid 2nd round of rookie drafts this yr. Apparently Reich said he envisions Hines as his version of Sproles...which is a pretty lofty comp/role on the offense for the colts. This is esp true if Luck is back, but maybe not ready to throw deep to TY on every second passing play.

I don't see any reason why Hines, can't get similar opportunity to other decent satellite backs. Pure speculation, but I don't think that something around 90-120 carries and 60-80 targets, is out of the question at all. The team is implementing more spread concepts to their offense, and Hines has been working out of the slot (which makes sense because he was a slot WR in college before switching to RB). Also now Hines is reported to be the colts primary return man, he should be active every game day, only further elevating his opportunity for work. NTM, with Mack returning from injury, and only Wilkins/Cmike/Turbin on the roster, the backfield is a big mess.

I fully expect Hines to have the 3rd down/passing downs work (with potential for more).

Calling my shot now, out of the satellite backs, Hines will be better than Cohen/Clement/Riddick/White this yr (if Luck is healthy).

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:59 am

ninotoreS wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:04 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:16 pm Those comps aren't very accurate, I mean just to start things off Shonn Greene is 14 lbs heavier. Ajayi is also heavier and significantly more athletic. I have no idea what a "hybrid" can inform you of. Factoring in draft capital etc, the closest comp would probably be Alvin Kamara. Montee Ball, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams share similarities but also some differences. If we start to venture into the 4th round maybe Mike Davis or Kenneth Dixon.
You're missing the point? And your suggested comps are even further off from aligning neatly with KJ's. Which underscores said point.

The point: KJ's profile has no neat comparisons. His closest testing number comps still aren't very close when he's considered both visually and metrically. He's an odd duck.
Kamara is very close numerically. Virtually identical draft pedigree, weight, 40 time, burst score and "fuax" sparqx score or whatever it is you want to call it. KJ tested more agile but it's in the ballpark. Trying to find an identical comp numerically AND visually is virtually impossible for any player. The fact that KJ might not look like his closest numerical comps does not mean he's "strange" or "an odd duck." You're coming at this conversation from a very bizarre angle.

ninotoreS wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:04 pm
Ajayi is... significantly more athletic.
The difference in their testing numbers only comes down to a minor difference in agility score and a low bench-press score by KJ
Ajayi better agility, better bench, and better weight adjusted 40, better sparq (whichever one you want to use). So there's more differences than you think. The only thing Kerryon did better to any significant degree was the broad jump. You'd have to fill me in on how that means "the case is all in favor of Kerryon." Aside from that, the difference in weight and draft pedigree degrades the comparison.

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:18 pm

Locking it in before the season starts.

Barkley - I'm expecting big things from him long-term.
Guice - To me he's the clear #2 in this class. I think he'll be a great running back in the NFL.
RoJo - My concerns with his size are mitigated by his ability. Closest prospect I've seen to Jamaal Charles.
Chubb - Big fan of Chubb and his landing spot. If he progresses athletically as much this year as he did last year, he could be up there with Barkley this time next year.
Michel - Weird landing spot, but I think he's a good running back who will always have a producing role in the NFL.
Penny - I'm lower on him than most. Situation and draft capital are there. We'll see if he can take advantage.
Johnson - Good enough to contribute for 2-3 years. We'll see after that.
Ballage - He's a potential home run. Serious ability. Miami isn't the perfect landing spot, but if he's the real deal he should be able to take the job and run with it.
Freeman - Good situation. Don't see long-term upside, but he's worth it for the right price.

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:11 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:18 pm Locking it in before the season starts.

Barkley - I'm expecting big things from him long-term.
Guice - To me he's the clear #2 in this class. I think he'll be a great running back in the NFL.
RoJo - My concerns with his size are mitigated by his ability. Closest prospect I've seen to Jamaal Charles.
Chubb - Big fan of Chubb and his landing spot. If he progresses athletically as much this year as he did last year, he could be up there with Barkley this time next year.
Michel - Weird landing spot, but I think he's a good running back who will always have a producing role in the NFL.
Penny - I'm lower on him than most. Situation and draft capital are there. We'll see if he can take advantage.
Johnson - Good enough to contribute for 2-3 years. We'll see after that.
Ballage - He's a potential home run. Serious ability. Miami isn't the perfect landing spot, but if he's the real deal he should be able to take the job and run with it.
Freeman - Good situation. Don't see long-term upside, but he's worth it for the right price.
Agreed about Chubb, disagree about Guice. I do not see him being great. Solid to good for me. I really think he lacks the burst and vision to be great. I honestly would not be surprised if he struggled a bit this year, like Mixon did. Not to that level, though,because they have a better QB and OL. Just wouldn't be surprised if he didn't meet expectations. I still have Chubb above him as a player. Guice is 4th on the Redskins depth chart, after all. :lol:

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:55 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:11 pm
dynastyninja wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:18 pm Locking it in before the season starts.

Barkley - I'm expecting big things from him long-term.
Guice - To me he's the clear #2 in this class. I think he'll be a great running back in the NFL.
RoJo - My concerns with his size are mitigated by his ability. Closest prospect I've seen to Jamaal Charles.
Chubb - Big fan of Chubb and his landing spot. If he progresses athletically as much this year as he did last year, he could be up there with Barkley this time next year.
Michel - Weird landing spot, but I think he's a good running back who will always have a producing role in the NFL.
Penny - I'm lower on him than most. Situation and draft capital are there. We'll see if he can take advantage.
Johnson - Good enough to contribute for 2-3 years. We'll see after that.
Ballage - He's a potential home run. Serious ability. Miami isn't the perfect landing spot, but if he's the real deal he should be able to take the job and run with it.
Freeman - Good situation. Don't see long-term upside, but he's worth it for the right price.
Agreed about Chubb, disagree about Guice. I do not see him being great. Solid to good for me. I really think he lacks the burst and vision to be great. I honestly would not be surprised if he struggled a bit this year, like Mixon did. Not to that level, though,because they have a better QB and OL. Just wouldn't be surprised if he didn't meet expectations. I still have Chubb above him as a player. Guice is 4th on the Redskins depth chart, after all. :lol:

Do you not worry that Ballage was never able to take the job in college and run with it?
I can't speak to Ballage's situation in Arizona State because I don't really follow college football. I'm just going off of the tape, and he strikes me as a guy who could do really well in the NFL. Far from a guarantee, though, which is why I'm not willing to put him any higher.

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:50 pm

Ronald Jones is having trouble in pass protection and "hand softness". Isn't that just another way of saying he has stone hands? If he can't pass protect or catch, that severely limits his upside.
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby Servo » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:09 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:50 pm Ronald Jones is having trouble in pass protection and "hand softness". Isn't that just another way of saying he has stone hands? If he can't pass protect or catch, that severely limits his upside.
Lol the new Jeremy McNichols??!?!?

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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby DJB » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:52 am

Servo wrote: Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:09 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:50 pm Ronald Jones is having trouble in pass protection and "hand softness". Isn't that just another way of saying he has stone hands? If he can't pass protect or catch, that severely limits his upside.
Lol the new Jeremy McNichols??!?!?
If you watched Hard Knocks you would know that McNichols is a knucklehead and he couldn't even run the correct route or run the correct lane. Barely cared about the playbook and looked entitled.

Id say its pretty early to be jumping off the R Jones bandwagon.
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Re: 2018 RB rookie discussion

Postby Rosenbluu » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:20 am

Do people expect him to improve his catching abilities in a few weeks?
12 Team PPR
QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex
QB: Mahomes/Jones
RB: Mixon/Chubb/Mostert/Burkhead/McKinnon
WR: Wilson/JuJu/Marquise/Mooney/Campbell/Dotson/Osborn/Julio/Tolbert/Shakir/Metchie
TE: Andrews/Hurst


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