2018 RB rookie discussion

[Bot101]

I am glad I do not have to pick amongst these 2nd tier RBs. Most of them are pretty good, but also have some glaring flaws and there is not much seperating them from each other.

Good luck to you guys. lol

My draft starts tomorrow morning. If I disappear for a few days declare me deceased from a heart attack due to not being able to decide on someone.

[FantasyFreak]

Wilkins over Penny and Chubb. He'll be lucky to make the roster, come on! Color coding be damned, Wilkins should be in the "invisible ink" section of the color coding. Not sure why people think he's a thing. 24 years old in a month, did nothing in college until he was a 23 year old playing against far younger players. Camp body/practice squad player.

You didn't read my explanation. The rankings I gave are year 1 rankings only. I said Wilkins will be a 1-year wonder. If he wins the starting role, due to injury or whatever, he could easily be worth a 1st rounder, and then I'd trade him away asap. That's why I have him rated so high.... so I can flip him later on. I've been drafting him for 3rds & 4ths, and if I can flip him for a 1st, then he's easily one of my favorite RBs in the draft. I did the same thing with all my copies of Alfred Morris. Hell, I did it with Darren Reaves (who?) as well.

Wilkins also the same color as Penny & Chubb, meaning I gave him in the same ranking. I think Penny will be given all the opportunity in the world to succeed... he just won't. I like Chubb, but not as a PPR back, and in a shared position for 2018.

Long term I think:

Barkley
Johnson
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Chubb
Guice

Blue = Stud
Green = Starters
Red = Starters/Role Players
Orange = No Idea... Could Be Amazing, Could Be A Bust
Not Mentioned = Bust

For what it's worth, I'm pretty close to putting Ballage in the green section.

I know, but I don't agree, that's all. I think Penny is far superior, and Wilkins will be lucky to make the Colts roster. I personally think Penny is one of the better backs in this class, as is Chubb, and Wilkins is not even worth being mentioned in the same vein as them, as there is nothing about his bio that suggest he's even in the same stratosphere of talent as those two, that's all. If you get this right, all the power to you.

[FantasyFreak]

I am glad I do not have to pick amongst these 2nd tier RBs. Most of them are pretty good, but also have some glaring flaws and there is not much seperating them from each other.

Good luck to you guys. lol

My draft starts tomorrow morning. If I disappear for a few days declare me deceased from a heart attack due to not being able to decide on someone.

Penny for your thoughts. LOL. If you really can't decide, try moving back to 1.03 and grab a 3rd rounder, or something if it's all the same to you.

[Bot101]

I am glad I do not have to pick amongst these 2nd tier RBs. Most of them are pretty good, but also have some glaring flaws and there is not much seperating them from each other.

Good luck to you guys. lol

My draft starts tomorrow morning. If I disappear for a few days declare me deceased from a heart attack due to not being able to decide on someone.

Penny for your thoughts. LOL. If you really can't decide, try moving back to 1.03 and grab a 3rd rounder, or something if it's all the same to you.

Oh believe me I tried. 1.02 is the worst pick to own this year. I would practically have to pay someone to move up.

[Bot101]

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/5/30/174 ... touchdowns

Its hype articles like this that make me excited to own Guice. Then Ill listen to a podcast and someone will mock Penny at 1.02 with a compelling argument.

[Johnny Canuck]

I know, but I don't agree, that's all. I think Penny is far superior, and Wilkins will be lucky to make the Colts roster. I personally think Penny is one of the better backs in this class, as is Chubb, and Wilkins is not even worth being mentioned in the same vein as them, as there is nothing about his bio that suggest he's even in the same stratosphere of talent as those two, that's all. If you get this right, all the power to you.

FantasyFreak is there something other than age that drops Wilkins down your charts so much? not being a dick, genuinely curious, because when I watch the film I see a competent RB. Yes an older RB, but competent nonetheless.

I agree that Wilkins isn't in the same class as the other top 8 RBs in this class, but to say he's not good enough to make the Colts is hyperbole imo. Yes Wilkins is older, but only a couple months older than DJ when he was drafted - not comp'ing the players at all, just showing that age isn't everything (obvs DJ is an outlier, just showing evidence that an elevated age can sometimes be overblown).

Wilkins likely would of been in the draft last year, had he not missed his entire 2016 season due to academic suspension (not sure if everyone was privy to that info). And it's not like he only produced because he was older and stronger, he produced at a younger age as well. He avg'd 6.9 ypc as a freshman (age 20.5), 5.3 ypc as a sophomore (age 21.5), and back up to 6.5 ypc as a senior (age 23.5).

Colts GM Chris Ballard (who started as a scout) obviously likes him, reaching to take him in the 5th when he likely could got him as a UDFA...

“Jordan Wilkins, now he is an interesting runner. I don’t ever want to put names, but his run style reminded me a lot of Matt Forte,” Ballard said after the draft. “We thought he had as good of vision as any back in the draft. He had an injury that sidelined him at one point, but he’s healthy and we are excited to get him.”

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/ ... nfl-draft/

Matt Waldman also liked the Forte comp in running style

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/990309834095554560

and Mike Clay of ESPN expects Wilkins to lead the colts in touches

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/5/9/1 ... ce=twitter

Now obviously there are a lot of fluff pieces this time of year, and I'm not a Wilkins truther by any means, personally I like Hines to emerge, but I don't think he's the slouch you're making him out to be.

[FantasyFreak]

I know, but I don't agree, that's all. I think Penny is far superior, and Wilkins will be lucky to make the Colts roster. I personally think Penny is one of the better backs in this class, as is Chubb, and Wilkins is not even worth being mentioned in the same vein as them, as there is nothing about his bio that suggest he's even in the same stratosphere of talent as those two, that's all. If you get this right, all the power to you.

FantasyFreak is there something other than age that drops Wilkins down your charts so much? not being a dick, genuinely curious, because when I watch the film I see a competent RB. Yes an older RB, but competent nonetheless.

I agree that Wilkins isn't in the same class as the other top 8 RBs in this class, but to say he's not good enough to make the Colts is hyperbole imo. Yes Wilkins is older, but only a couple months older than DJ when he was drafted - not comp'ing the players at all, just showing that age isn't everything (obvs DJ is an outlier, just showing evidence that an elevated age can sometimes be overblown).

Wilkins likely would of been in the draft last year, had he not missed his entire 2016 season due to academic suspension (not sure if everyone was privy to that info). And it's not like he only produced because he was older and stronger, he produced at a younger age as well. He avg'd 6.9 ypc as a freshman (age 20.5), 5.3 ypc as a sophomore (age 21.5), and back up to 6.5 ypc as a senior (age 23.5).

Colts GM Chris Ballard (who started as a scout) obviously likes him, reaching to take him in the 5th when he likely could got him as a UDFA...

“Jordan Wilkins, now he is an interesting runner. I don’t ever want to put names, but his run style reminded me a lot of Matt Forte,” Ballard said after the draft. “We thought he had as good of vision as any back in the draft. He had an injury that sidelined him at one point, but he’s healthy and we are excited to get him.”


https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/ ... nfl-draft/

Matt Waldman also liked the Forte comp in running style

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/990309834095554560

and Mike Clay of ESPN expects Wilkins to lead the colts in touches

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/5/9/1 ... ce=twitter

Now obviously there are a lot of fluff pieces this time of year, and I'm not a Wilkins truther by any means, personally I like Hines to emerge, but I don't think he's the slouch you're making him out to be.

Perhaps. He may have a running "style" like Forte, but the talent level is nowhere near the same. Does anybody listen to Mike Clay anymore? 3rd best back on the roster AT BEST, I would think. I just don't see it.

[DTMW78]

Well I have picks 2 + 4.
Took Guice with 2 , Michael went 3rd so now I'm trying to decide who to pick.
No offers to move back yet.

[Vcize]

Guice is significantly younger than Chubb. Which is the difference for me.

Youth is important. I can't argue that.

But, I also look at the difference in how Chubb and Guice take hits. Guice runs with abandon...which is great for the short run. But, it also will punish his body in a way that Chubb just doesn't see. Chubb had a fluke knee injury on the sideline yes, but I could really see Guice punish his body into submission before Chubb does.

However, I compare Guice to Lynch a lot in my analysis and Lynch is still playing into his 30's so...

Yeah I'd love to see any actual data on that running style being particularly damning. Lynch and Peterson are probably the two guys that most fit that mold and both of them had very long, productive careers. Meanwhile there are guys like Brian Westbrook who shied away from contact and looked like he was 50 years old after playing 2-3 years in a lead back role.

[Bot101]

Guice is significantly younger than Chubb. Which is the difference for me.

Youth is important. I can't argue that.

But, I also look at the difference in how Chubb and Guice take hits. Guice runs with abandon...which is great for the short run. But, it also will punish his body in a way that Chubb just doesn't see. Chubb had a fluke knee injury on the sideline yes, but I could really see Guice punish his body into submission before Chubb does.

However, I compare Guice to Lynch a lot in my analysis and Lynch is still playing into his 30's so...

Yeah I'd love to see any actual data on that running style being particularly damning. Lynch and Peterson are probably the two guys that most fit that mold and both of them had very long, productive careers. Meanwhile there are guys like Brian Westbrook who shied away from contact and looked like he was 50 years old after playing 2-3 years in a lead back role.

We hashed this argument out in a thread a couple months ago. I cant remember who but they posted several players with aggressive run styles and there wasnt any evidence supporting the claim that they had shortened careers because of it. For the record I was on the other side of the fence regarding Guice. I had Chubb above him. But I dug into more tape and liked what I saw. He is the second best RB in this class in terms of pure talent (Chubb would be if not for the knee injury).

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Perhaps. He may have a running "style" like Forte, but the talent level is nowhere near the same.

Kind of how Kerryon Johnson runs like Le'Veon Bell oh my sides...

[lukkynumber13]

Perhaps. He may have a running "style" like Forte, but the talent level is nowhere near the same.

Kind of how Kerryon Johnson runs like Le'Veon Bell oh my sides...

Ugh, for real. I actually like KJ but I'm sick of hearing that comparison and the RoJo to Charles.

[ArrylT]

June ADP should be posted soon - going to be curious to see if what changes occur. The May ADP is just after the NFL draft and things havent really had time to settle - but now we've had a month to discuss, and OTAs and so forth. So curious to see which rookie RBs are going to rise / fall over the course of the next few months.

[ninotoreS]

I expect:

- RoJo to drop because of the recent Peyton Barber coach-praise
- Ridley to creep up thanks to his OTA performance
- Penny to drop maybe one spot because of the recent Chris Carson coach-praise
- Chubb to drop because of the Duke extension
- Kerryon, Moore, and Freeman to creep up just because of the other guys sliding

Kind of how Kerryon Johnson runs like Le'Veon Bell oh my sides...

Oh your sides. I can see you're compensating for your hot-take anxiety.

He does rush *like* Bell. Because he plainly attempts the same strategy as Bell -- slows down at the LoS waiting for crease/lane development and then tries to use his superior burst to get away with it.

This doesn't mean he's going to be as effective at it as Bell, who had looser hips than Johnson even before he lost that weight after his rookie year.

Methodology between individuals can be validly observed as similar without asserting that its degree of success is or will be the same.

[dynastyninja]

Do you think KJ looks like NCAA Bell or NFL Bell? I don't think he looks like either, but there's a big difference in my mind between the two.