2018 RB rookie discussion

[dynastyninja]

Year 1 Rankings:


Barkley
Johnson
Guice
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Wilkins
Chubb
Penny
Jones III

I like to take chances. I LOVE Johnson, both his skills and his situation. I think Guice will be a 1-2 year wonder. Michel will assume the starting role all to himself for once in NE, and Freeman is a wild card. I think he'll be given all the opportunity to succeed in Denver, and he has the talent, but little things like ball security and pass protection will make or break him.

I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in.

Wilkins is my top super-deep RB. I don't think he'll be more than a 1-2 year guy, but he can easily take over that #1 spot and will be worth a 1st rounder. Anyone who owns him would be smart to flip him while his value is high.

I have 0 confidence in Penny with that RBBC, and Cleveland being Cleveland. I remind you, this is year 1 rankings. I think Chubb could be awesome in a few years. Penny is a scrub and will tank. Jones is an awesome talent but will also fail because he's bleeping uncoahable.

Defender: I stole your color coding method. It's easy to read. Thanks!

I'm pretty high on Ballage, as well, but I'm not sure I'd like to dispute some of the other things I disagree with

[FantasyFreak]

I’m starting to see Penny at 1.02 more and more. Which makes my decision on Friday even more frustrating between him and Guice.

Personally id go with Guice and not over think it. He fell because of "attitude" or bad interviews. Dude is talented.

Supposedly. Nobody knows. From what I heard, some people simply didn't have him as high as the media. This happens quite often. I never thought Guice was as good as the majority, but I don have him in a tier behind Barkley with Penny and Chubb. He's my 4th RB, but I can see the case for him being 2. Just never got the whole tier of his own thing.

Side note. Jordan Wilkins will be lucky to make the Colts roster. He'll be 24 and did absolutely nothing until he was a 23 year old playing against younger players. I see a lot of people talking about him, and it's my opinion, that he won't be a thing.

[Bot101]

I’m starting to see Penny at 1.02 more and more. Which makes my decision on Friday even more frustrating between him and Guice.

Personally id go with Guice and not over think it. He fell because of "attitude" or bad interviews. Dude is talented.

Supposedly. Nobody knows. From what I heard, some people simply didn't have him as high as the media. This happens quite often. I never thought Guice was as good as the majority, but I don have him in a tier behind Barkley with Penny and Chubb. He's my 4th RB, but I can see the case for him being 2. Just never got the whole tier of his own thing.

Side note. Jordan Wilkins will be lucky to make the Colts roster. He'll be 24 and did absolutely nothing until he was a 23 year old playing against younger players. I see a lot of people talking about him, and it's my opinion, that he won't be a thing.

Yeah I'm just seriously torn. Pre draft I had Guice in a semi tier on his own with Chubb close. After the draft and in weeks of discussions with DD about his RB report I moved Penny into the Guice tier. DD even took Penny in his own draft. Which muddied the water even further. Redraft opinions I trust like Jake Ciely and the Fantasy Footballers have Penny quite a bit higher than Guice. Weight adjusted speed score gives another sliiight edge to Penny. Jay Gruden repeating twice that Guice is a 1st and 2nd down banger (while also admitting Guice catches just fine) gives another edge to Penny. And draft capitol is yet another edge to Penny. Its not like Guice was taken right after Penny, but he went as the 7th RB at the bottom of the 2nd.

Oline is an edge towards Guice. Age is in Guice favor, he isnt even 21 yet. I would say overall upside long term is in Guice favor because Thompson I think gets injured every year if I am not mistaken. Overall talent I like Guice slightly more. He has more shiftyness and explosiveness. Played in a tough conference. He faced stacked boxes, defenses knew he was coming and couldn't stop him. Something else I am just now hearing is Guice was still injured at the combine and still put up a good 40. Actually his 10 yard splits are much better than Penny's (1.54 for Guice vs 1.59 for Penny).


So yeah I'm torn in 2.

[MEuRaH]

I'm pretty high on Ballage, as well, but I'm not sure I'd like to dispute some of the other things I disagree with

lol come ooooonnn!

For real though, I said straight up that "I love taking chances". I don't always go with the grain on player rankings.

[Defender]

Year 1 Rankings:


Barkley
Johnson
Guice
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Wilkins
Chubb
Penny
Jones III

...

Defender: I stole your color coding method. It's easy to read. Thanks!

Actually, I borrowed the idea from Lukky and his top 50 Dynasty RBs thread: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=161881

[Valhalla]

Year 1 Rankings:


Barkley
Johnson
Guice
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Wilkins
Chubb
Penny
Jones III

...

Defender: I stole your color coding method. It's easy to read. Thanks!

Actually, I borrowed the idea from Lukky and his top 50 Dynasty RBs thread: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=161881

Hate to break it to you guys...but I created the concept of color coding. And all other methods of organization, like bullets or varying fonts, even the numeric system. Credit Valhalla.

[FantasyFreak]

Year 1 Rankings:


Barkley
Johnson
Guice
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Wilkins
Chubb
Penny
Jones III

...

Defender: I stole your color coding method. It's easy to read. Thanks!

Actually, I borrowed the idea from Lukky and his top 50 Dynasty RBs thread: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=161881

Hate to break it to you guys...but I created the concept of color coding. And all other methods of organization, like bullets or varying fonts, even the numeric system. Credit Valhalla.

Wilkins over Penny and Chubb. He'll be lucky to make the roster, come on! Color coding be damned, Wilkins should be in the "invisible ink" section of the color coding. Not sure why people think he's a thing. 24 years old in a month, did nothing in college until he was a 23 year old playing against far younger players. Camp body/practice squad player.

[MEuRaH]

Wilkins over Penny and Chubb. He'll be lucky to make the roster, come on! Color coding be damned, Wilkins should be in the "invisible ink" section of the color coding. Not sure why people think he's a thing. 24 years old in a month, did nothing in college until he was a 23 year old playing against far younger players. Camp body/practice squad player.

You didn't read my explanation. The rankings I gave are year 1 rankings only. I said Wilkins will be a 1-year wonder. If he wins the starting role, due to injury or whatever, he could easily be worth a 1st rounder, and then I'd trade him away asap. That's why I have him rated so high.... so I can flip him later on. I've been drafting him for 3rds & 4ths, and if I can flip him for a 1st, then he's easily one of my favorite RBs in the draft. I did the same thing with all my copies of Alfred Morris. Hell, I did it with Darren Reaves (who?) as well.

Wilkins also the same color as Penny & Chubb, meaning I gave him in the same ranking. I think Penny will be given all the opportunity in the world to succeed... he just won't. I like Chubb, but not as a PPR back, and in a shared position for 2018.

Long term I think:

Barkley
Johnson
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Chubb
Guice

Blue = Stud
Green = Starters
Red = Starters/Role Players
Orange = No Idea... Could Be Amazing, Could Be A Bust
Not Mentioned = Bust

For what it's worth, I'm pretty close to putting Ballage in the green section.

[kris_kapsner]

Our rookie draft this past weekend had RB going with all top 8 picks and I expected that in our 16 team league where RB's are at a premium (start 2-3) and coming off from a fantasy year like last year for rookie RB's.

Barkley
Guice
Chubb
Michel
Ronald Jones
Penny
Freeman
K. Johnson

Months ago I traded the 1.4, 1.5, 2019 1st and Robby Anderson for 1.1.

Prior to the NFL draft I traded 1.6, Lynch, M. Lee and a future 3rd and 4th for 1.3 because I wanted Nick Chubb in a bad way. After seeing him in the combine my fears of his ability to fully recover from his knee injury were put to rest. He possibly has the best vision in this year's class. His work ethic and ability to come back from that gruesome injury made me a believer that he will be a starting RB for the long run in the NFL.

Chubb has a relatively neutered ceiling this year due to Hyde and Johnson. However, I see a RB in Chubb who could rise to being the next Bell for the same OC who made Bell what he is. I have ZERO worries about Chubb being able to be a pass catching RB like Bell in that offence. He had 18 receptions as a Freshman while Gurley was there. And people forget so quickly that Chubb made Georgia fans forget about Todd Gurley when he got hurt.

I'm tempted to put Chubb at #2 on my list behind Barkley only. But Guice is very good and he is a tad younger. So it's a tough call. I like them both.

For me, there is a tier break after Guice and Chubb. Penny is good, but I don't see him as being as talented as Chubb and Guice...even though he is likely to outperform both Guice and Chubb this year. But, talent rises to the top and I see Chubb as the second best RB to own from this class for the long term.

[Bot101]

Guice is significantly younger than Chubb. Which is the difference for me.

[kris_kapsner]

Guice is significantly younger than Chubb. Which is the difference for me.

Youth is important. I can't argue that.

But, I also look at the difference in how Chubb and Guice take hits. Guice runs with abandon...which is great for the short run. But, it also will punish his body in a way that Chubb just doesn't see. Chubb had a fluke knee injury on the sideline yes, but I could really see Guice punish his body into submission before Chubb does.

However, I compare Guice to Lynch a lot in my analysis and Lynch is still playing into his 30's so...

[Bot101]

I suspect a lot has to do with Guice being young and immature. After a few NFL sized hits he should take notice on how to avoid unnecessary damage. I see a good amount of subtle wiggle to Guice’s run style.

[Bot101]

I do love Chubb though.

[Phaded]

I am glad I do not have to pick amongst these 2nd tier RBs. Most of them are pretty good, but also have some glaring flaws and there is not much seperating them from each other.

Good luck to you guys. lol

[FantasyFreak]

Guice is significantly younger than Chubb. Which is the difference for me.

Youth is important. I can't argue that.

But, I also look at the difference in how Chubb and Guice take hits. Guice runs with abandon...which is great for the short run. But, it also will punish his body in a way that Chubb just doesn't see. Chubb had a fluke knee injury on the sideline yes, but I could really see Guice punish his body into submission before Chubb does.

However, I compare Guice to Lynch a lot in my analysis and Lynch is still playing into his 30's so...

Yeah, I don't like the way Guice runs sometimes. Just takes so many unecessary hits. It's fun to watch, but not if you are invested in him in FF. Not everybody is Marshawn, and ends up lasting like he does. Who knows??