Off-season Value Changes

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kamihamster
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Off-season Value Changes

Postby kamihamster » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Who are the guys you think will change value a lot in the (fantasy) off-season? Here's a few guys off the top of my head.

Alvin Kamara - I see him going for multiple 1st.
Alex Collins - The more tape I watch of him I become a believer. Regret selling him in one league for a 2nd and 3rd, I think he'll be worth a mid 1st in the offseason. Only thing I'm worried about is that he's always going to be in a RBBC.
Keenan Allen - Value was an early 1st past off season, this off season I see him going for multiple 1st now that Rivers and he are on the same page.
Adam Thielen - with a 2nd year of WR1 production in his belt, I think people will become a believer and he'll approach Doug Baldwins current price since they had similar pedigree and production.
Kenyan Drake - I think he's gonna do well these last few games and prove he can be a work horse--at the very least, the 1A in a RBBC. I see mid 1st value this off season whereas I bought him for a late 3rd last off season.
Marlon Mack - I don't see the colts drafting a RB as they have other needs. Gore might retire?! If he does, Mack's value jumps big.
Derrick Henry - I don't really like what I've seen, but the Titans offense has been bad this year. I see Henry taking over the timeshare and some hype over this off season. I'd sell if I could get an early 1st.
Davante Adams - Seems like he's the guy in GB right now. Jordy is getting old. People were unsure about him last off season, I think this year's production moves the needle in a big way. I'd wager early 1st value.
Robby Anderson - Like Thielen, a UDFA producing big numbers, I think the 2nd year of production moves the needle this off season and he could get you a mid-first whereas I picked him up in one league off waivers last off season.

I'll post some big move down when I think it over a bit.
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12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby pierson242 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:01 pm

Biggest riser of each position off the top of my head
QB
Russell Wilson - a year ago this guy went behind Mariota, Winston, and Carr in drafts! Yea that's right I saw it happen! He had a bad 2016 and people panicked because of the state of the Seahawks. Well now it's early December and he's QB1, a better o line, and simply playing fantastic. He should rise back up to the dynasty QB1/2 overall price.
RB
Todd Gurley - after his disasterous 2016 some were calling him a one hit wonder. They didn't believe his 2015 year was the real him. Well that's the Jeff Fisher affect. Now under a new coach Gurley is back to being a stud and RB2 overall behind Bell. In a recent mock I saw Gurley go 1.01. With no charcater concerns, a young offense around him, and great usage he's back and will bring the same amount as Bell Zeke and DJ!
WR
Deandre Hopkins - basically the same as Gurley. After 2016 people were saying he isn't qb proof, might not be S good as we though, blah blah blah! Well isn't he making us look dumb! Hopkins showed an amazing connection with Watson before the Injury. Now even with Savage he's still playing great! He's seeing more targets than anyone in the league and even with that people can't shut him down. I've currently got him as my dynasty WR#2. OBJ is #1 and you could argue AB over Hopkins but I'll take Nuk!
TE
Zach Ertz - credit Wentzs second year jump but Ertz is a monster this year. Before his concusion Ertz was TE1 in most scoring. He's finally developed a connection with Wentz and a TD monster. Latest mocks have him being picked 2/3 TE off the board behind Kelce and Gronk, not a bad club to be a part off!

These would be my biggest risers in value this year compared to where they were last year!
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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby Vcize » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:55 pm

pierson242 wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:01 pm Biggest riser of each position off the top of my head
QB
Russell Wilson - a year ago this guy went behind Mariota, Winston, and Carr in drafts! Yea that's right I saw it happen! He had a bad 2016 and people panicked because of the state of the Seahawks. Well now it's early December and he's QB1, a better o line, and simply playing fantastic. He should rise back up to the dynasty QB1/2 overall price.
RB
Todd Gurley - after his disasterous 2016 some were calling him a one hit wonder. They didn't believe his 2015 year was the real him. Well that's the Jeff Fisher affect. Now under a new coach Gurley is back to being a stud and RB2 overall behind Bell. In a recent mock I saw Gurley go 1.01. With no charcater concerns, a young offense around him, and great usage he's back and will bring the same amount as Bell Zeke and DJ!
WR
Deandre Hopkins - basically the same as Gurley. After 2016 people were saying he isn't qb proof, might not be S good as we though, blah blah blah! Well isn't he making us look dumb! Hopkins showed an amazing connection with Watson before the Injury. Now even with Savage he's still playing great! He's seeing more targets than anyone in the league and even with that people can't shut him down. I've currently got him as my dynasty WR#2. OBJ is #1 and you could argue AB over Hopkins but I'll take Nuk!
TE
Zach Ertz - credit Wentzs second year jump but Ertz is a monster this year. Before his concusion Ertz was TE1 in most scoring. He's finally developed a connection with Wentz and a TD monster. Latest mocks have him being picked 2/3 TE off the board behind Kelce and Gronk, not a bad club to be a part off!

These would be my biggest risers in value this year compared to where they were last year!
I think he was referring to people whose value is likely to change between now (not last offseason) and next offseason, either through their value perception finally catching up to their production or them finishing strong or something along those lines.
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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby Vcize » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:59 pm

I like the Kenyan Drake call. He looks like an NFL RB to me. He hasn't really had injury issues and he actually has decent size so I'm not sure why the consensus has always been that he's a 5-10 touch guy in a best case scenario. I think down the stretch he continues proving he can handle a load and he goes into next season as Miami's lead back. I traded him away for an early 2nd and early 3rd a few weeks ago and I think I'll end up regretting it.

Another one I'll throw out is Allen Robinson. Young players without recent production are always at their highest value in the offseason, and that is Robinson to a T. On top of that, it seems very unlikely that he'll be catching balls from Bortles next year. Even if he stays in Jax I have to think they spend the cash to bring in a real QB at this point since, as crazy as it would have seemed last year, they're really just a decent QB away from being serious Super Bowl contenders.

And if Robinson leaves Jax there are a slew of good landing spots. San Fran has the 2nd most cap room in the NFL and that would boost his value tremendously signing to be the featured guy for Garoppolo/Shanahan.
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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby maxhyde » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:27 am

Basically any rookie who played in games and didn't stink up the joint.
Guys like Golladay, Juju, Hunt, Kamara, Kupp, Westbrook, Mack, all the TE's, Deshaun Watson, Trubisky are all going to skyrocket this offseason.

Collins will see some extra value but I am not buying at late 1st early 2nd. Too many changes coming in BAL. Drake has been impressive...probably late 1st type value.

Basically anybody young that looked at any point during the season they might be ok at football
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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby ImaRounder » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:56 am

I think if there was ever a time to sell Odell, it's be this off-season. Possibility of a new QB and or system changes things. My thought has nothing to do with his injury and everything to do with the possibility of a situation change.

I'm curious to see what happens to Watkins and Coopers value this off-season. Hope their values plummet so I can buy.

Kamara will be so overvalued this off-season so take advantage if you can.

Mariota and Winstons value are at an all-time low, possible buys for the value.

All the mike Evans owners saying Desean Jackson will open things up for him are eating crow. Evans needs 12 targets a game to be relevant. He is not efficient. His value will regress this off-season.

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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:17 am

With so many high-profile FAs, it's impossible to tell. We've got to see where people sign before we know. That's a cop-out, but it's true.

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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby Vcize » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:15 pm

ImaRounder wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:56 am I'm curious to see what happens to Watkins and Coopers value this off-season. Hope their values plummet so I can buy.

Mariota and Winstons value are at an all-time low, possible buys for the value.
I think the offseason is the worst time to buy these kind of guys. Young potential guys lacking actual production are always at their highest value in the offseason, lowest value in-season. Meanwhile older guys that are producing are at their highest in-season, lowest in the offseason.

Guys like Golden Tate and Lamar Miller and Rob Gronkowski will be good buys in the offseason, when everyone is thinking about what players will be doing for their team for the next 10 years and not winning/losing games right here and now. Guys like Cooper and Mariota and Watkins will be tough buys compared to when they were actively struggling week to week.
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Re: Off-season Value Changes

Postby cweds » Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:20 pm

I think A-rob and Watkins are some obvious choices pending free agency. SF, Indy and Chicago seem like logical landing spots. I'd love to see Watkins in a situation where he's receiving the target share his talent deserves. Both these guys were 1st round ADP August 2016.
Team 1 (3rd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Jamal Williams, Carson, AP, Lindsay, RJ
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, Trequan Smith, Pettis, MVS, J'mon Moore, C. Williams
TE: Olsen, Gescicki, Ebron, J. Smith
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th

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12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: DJ, Guice, Penny, Royce Freeman, Conner, Carson, Kelly, Dixon, Morris
WR: Allen, JJSS, Landry, Robinson, Watkins, Godwin, Callaway, Allison, Doctson, J. Moore, MVS
TE: Kelce, Njoku


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