Keenan Allen - PPR Machine

[Fantasyfanatic11]

I think you misread my post...I didn't say anything about 10 weeks ago. I said you didn't see a "pro" Keenan thread during the first 10 weeks. You're right, with other players their high and low weeks they were spread out but that's the point. You have people in this thread saying Keenan is a top 5 WR. What puts him ahead of players you listed? Nothing except that he put up big numbers 3 weeks in a row instead of scattered thru the year and this forum thrives on recency bias. So what he's done these last few weeks is more meaningful to many than what he did the first 10 weeks of the season.

Should be more meaningful to everyone considering its the 1st time in NFL history anyone has had 3 straight weeks of this nature

[M-Dub]

I too have been a KA supporter over his time in the league. Many on this site are victims of group think. Many are also owners that depend a bit too much on metrics. KA isn't that fast and never has been. AND, because of that - there is a click of people that are frequent posters on this site that will NEVER view him as a true wr1. In my world, that is absurd. Many of the KA doubters will point to injury history, injury risk, lack of elite athletic ability, Rivers getting up there in age, etc, etc etc. Meanwhile, in my 6 leagues, I own him in 3, and in each of those, I'm a #1 or #2 seed and playoff bound. Proof is in the puddin. Bottom line, too much is put into metrics as there are attributes that constitute a person, a player, a competitor, that simply can't be measured at the combine.

I’m not sure I agree that his metrics are bad. His 40 time leaves a lot to be desired, for sure, but his College Dominator rating is in the 94th percentile and his breakout age is 98th percentile. He’s not a downfield burner, but he doesn’t need to be in order to produce at a WR1 level. He has great hands, runs a full route tree, lines up all over the field and gets massive target volume. Who needs speed with that skill set/opportunity combo?

[maxhyde]

I think many downgrade him because of the injuries. Kinda the same way Josh Gordon is downgraded because of suspensions. Has very little to do with their ability to contribute on the field. Hard to rank players highly when they don't play full seasons.

That said he has been healthy and doing what we all knew he can do which is being Rivers go-to guy which makes him a very attractive fantasy option.

Still OK that I ditched all my Keenan shares

[Jfever]

His overall metrics as far as 40 time, shuttle, vert, etc are not elite. They just aren't. (You are right though - a wr doesn't need all these attributes to be elite to succeed in fantasy, they (attributes) do however make it easier and more likely.

Anyway, His injuries & poor 40 time ( I think it was like 4.71 or close to that) - eliminated him from many owners consideration from day one - before he was even drafted... regardless of his College Dominator rating being in the 94th percentile and his breakout age is 98th percentile - these occurrences happened at a time when KA was projected to be the first wr drafted from his class and before his knee surgery & poor junior season. Those results were likely put out after his very successful sophomore in 2011, that year Allen had a career-high 98 catches for 1,343 yards. Heck, he was on the cover of a fantasy football magazine wearing his UCLA duds - I remember buying and perusing, I recall multiple threads on these forums discussing his avg. skill set. His injury risk & His below avg long speed and short area quickness. With wr, in fantasy - with a knee injury history, was already "slow" to begin with.... many simply knocked him down their boards and were doubters before he even entered the league. the fact he was drafted into the NFL in the 3rd round of the rookie draft knocked him down further due to lack of draft pedigree.

Me, I saw a player that was full of grit, a gamer, squeaky clean off the field, great work ethic, and an underdog so to speak. I felt the injuries in the NFL were all a tad fluky and unlucky. I felt that his poor junior season was explainable as - if I recall coreectly, they had some poor qb play that year (I think it was his brother? )... Anyway, long story shortened.... Patience is a virtue in dynasty. Too many are heavily influenced by recency bias and too many are too quick to label. Admittedly - Tough not to at times.

[M-Dub]

The only metric PlayerProfiler even has for him is his 40 time. Did he even do the 3-cone, shuttle, vertical jump, etc. at the combine? Not sure if they use pro day numbers for that stuff, as they can be unreliable. He definitely seems to have quickness, if not raw speed.

Either way, I’m happy to have him on my team. If others want to discount him due to fluke injuries or a bad 40 time five years ago, that’s their loss.

[Jigga94]

He's a top 10 PPR WR to me. The injuries were pretty random occurrences, I wouldnt call him injury prone at all. I'd like to hear 10 WR people would rather have

[onetwothree]

The only metric PlayerProfiler even has for him is his 40 time. Did he even do the 3-cone, shuttle, vertical jump, etc. at the combine? Not sure if they use pro day numbers for that stuff, as they can be unreliable. He definitely seems to have quickness, if not raw speed.

Either way, I’m happy to have him on my team. If others want to discount him due to fluke injuries or a bad 40 time five years ago, that’s their loss.

He was injured which contributed to him dropping in the draft so it's inaccurate for anyone to say they believed in him despite the metrics as there weren't any. If you drafted him it was based on his reputation as an elite route runner.

As for his numbers at the beginning of the season versus the last few weeks, I think you had Rivers trying to get everyone involved early and the team was losing. He starts to target Keenan and Henry almost exclusively and they've been winning the last month. Also a tough stretch of CB matchups early and now he's taking advantage of much easier matchups.

The high floor as a clear #1 option seeing 10+ targets a game has him pretty firmly in the top 10. Maybe not the upside of a guy like Julio or Evans but also much less volatile.

[Tsunami]

I've been trying to sell high for a few weeks now but his perceived value hasn't caught up with his production. I'm kinda glad all my offers have been turned down, as he's carrying my team lately. But I don't know that he'd be this good in another situation, and I don't know how long Rivers is going to play at this level. I feel like he's similar to T.Y. Hilton, who was WR8 back in July DLF ADP but dropped off significantly with Luck out.

[Jason3123]

I've been trying to sell high for a few weeks now but his perceived value hasn't caught up with his production. I'm kinda glad all my offers have been turned down, as he's carrying my team lately. But I don't know that he'd be this good in another situation, and I don't know how long Rivers is going to play at this level. I feel like he's similar to T.Y. Hilton, who was WR8 back in July DLF ADP but dropped off significantly with Luck out.

For the team in my sig I offered Keenan/Cooks for Beckham/Crowell the week before the 3 game streak to a contending owner. He turned it down. He has since told me he regrets it haha. Now he faces me in the playoffs.

[Goddard]

I've been trying to sell high for a few weeks now but his perceived value hasn't caught up with his production. I'm kinda glad all my offers have been turned down, as he's carrying my team lately. But I don't know that he'd be this good in another situation, and I don't know how long Rivers is going to play at this level. I feel like he's similar to T.Y. Hilton, who was WR8 back in July DLF ADP but dropped off significantly with Luck out.

Hilton hasn't been bad because Luck's been out, he's been bad because Brissett is a below average QB. Give Hilton a decent QB not named Luck, and he'd still put up WR1 numbers. Same with Keenan, it will depend on who eventually replaces Rivers, but I'm not worried about that right now. Even AB struggled without Ben and he's arguably the best WR in the game right now (and Ben is more likely to retire sooner than Rivers).

[flyersfan1981]

This thread ought to just about make Skip's head explode.

This is more or less an "I told you so" type of thread for Keenan's fans and that's fine but realize that you didn't see a thread like this over the first 10 weeks of the season for a reason. Maybe it was his pedestrian production most weeks and lack of TDs. On a ppg basis he was the #32 WR and on points #26.

Keenan has been in my top 20 WRs. But he's not in my top 10 and certainly not my top 5. When he starts putting up better weeks on a more consistent basis then it could be a different story.

Correct me if I am wrong, but your biggest problem with him was you didn't think he would maintain his targets. I disagreed and said he would still get at least 9 targets/game which would give him a high floor with upside. Well through 8 weeks, he was averaging just over 9 targets/game and had double digit points in 6 of the 8 games (one he had 9.4, so he was close to 10). That is the definition of a high floor guy, which is what we all loved about him. He was only held in check once this season by the Denver defense (back when they were good), so I vehemently disagree that he has been inconsistent. If you don't like his perceived low ceiling over guys like Coleman, then there is nothing to discuss further. I happen to love the guy that I can confidently plug in and know he is going to get 10+ points every week...those guys win leagues! Well he is on pace to have between 145-160 targets, and as I said, with his great hands and routes, he would be a WR1 with those targets.

As someone else said, there is validity to Rivers trying to spread it around, rather than just realizing who is best weapons are and using them.

[cweds]

This thread ought to just about make Skip's head explode.

This is more or less an "I told you so" type of thread for Keenan's fans and that's fine but realize that you didn't see a thread like this over the first 10 weeks of the season for a reason. Maybe it was his pedestrian production most weeks and lack of TDs. On a ppg basis he was the #32 WR and on points #26.

Keenan has been in my top 20 WRs. But he's not in my top 10 and certainly not my top 5. When he starts putting up better weeks on a more consistent basis then it could be a different story.

Correct me if I am wrong, but your biggest problem with him was you didn't think he would maintain his targets. I disagreed and said he would still get at least 9 targets/game which would give him a high floor with upside. Well through 8 weeks, he was averaging just over 9 targets/game and had double digit points in 6 of the 8 games (one he had 9.4, so he was close to 10). That is the definition of a high floor guy, which is what we all loved about him. He was only held in check once this season by the Denver defense (back when they were good), so I vehemently disagree that he has been inconsistent. If you don't like his perceived low ceiling over guys like Coleman, then there is nothing to discuss further. I happen to love the guy that I can confidently plug in and know he is going to get 10+ points every week...those guys win leagues! Well he is on pace to have between 145-160 targets, and as I said, with his great hands and routes, he would be a WR1 with those targets.

As someone else said, there is validity to Rivers trying to spread it around, rather than just realizing who is best weapons are and using them.

I'd just like to add he put up a 40 point performance a couple weeks ago so maybe his ceiling isn't as low as it's perceived to be.

[jcc6fd]

A couple of things of note:

1. In my standard (non-PPR) scoring league he is the WR5 through Week 14. Yes his volume of catches is great for PPR, but his yardage and TD totals have also been great.

2. To anyone commenting that he has a lack of talent and is volume dependent, the Chargers are winning games when Keenan has monster output. He is a master of the back shoulder catch and is a master route runner, so he's getting separation (for those of you that are overly focused on 40 times). He is very, VERY good. Those who doubted his health had (and maybe still have) legitimate concerns, but I don't quite understand how you could doubt his talent/production/real life and fantasy value at this point. He's a top 10 WR regardless of scoring format.

[hockeyBjj]

I traded away both Keenan and Thielen early this year

I should be kicked out of my league :'(

[Goddard]

I traded away both Keenan and Thielen early this year

I should be kicked out of my league :'(

What did you trade them for?