Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

[Phaded]

I'm admittedly not that big on Davis myself and think he is overrated - however, if you like him you should have zero reason to be concerned. This community over the last few years has developed a complete lack of patience with prospects. Remember the traditional "third year breakout" for WRs that "used to be a thing" but apparently is not anymore?

Yeah - some WRs are more pro ready or outperform expectations as a rookie; but it is far too early to be writing anybody off from the WR class last year; including Davis.

[ArrylT]

Mularkey helped develop Matt Ryan while Michael Turner was running all over the NFL. Same blueprint was used here, he comes in and has a very heavy run-first approach. Doesn't ask Mariota to do too much as far as a complex scheme, and let's him develop into the NFL. Also, they had no weapons. Davis gets the growing pain year (literally, when he came into the NFL with a known injury). Now they go into phase two and let Mariota loose. Have a nice two-headed monster at RB. Mariota and Davis will have a big year.

Probably the right way to sum it up!

Btw I am enjoying your graphic novel(s).

[Space Cowboy]

Not gonna read through the whole thread and not pretending like what I'm about to say really means one thing or another --- but wow at his playoff game vs NE

[_yeti]

Mularkey helped develop Matt Ryan while Michael Turner was running all over the NFL. Same blueprint was used here, he comes in and has a very heavy run-first approach. Doesn't ask Mariota to do too much as far as a complex scheme, and let's him develop into the NFL. Also, they had no weapons. Davis gets the growing pain year (literally, when he came into the NFL with a known injury). Now they go into phase two and let Mariota loose. Have a nice two-headed monster at RB. Mariota and Davis will have a big year.

Probably the right way to sum it up!

Btw I am enjoying your graphic novel(s).

[ninotoreS]

Not gonna read through the whole thread and not pretending like what I'm about to say really means one thing or another --- but wow at his playoff game vs NE

Yeah.

Some of Davis' film was legitimately disappointing earlier in the season. But this playoff game did a lot to wipe that out, in my view. On the biggest stage, with more pressure than he ever faced in any Western Michigan game, he performed like the elite draft pick he's supposed to be. You wanna see progress with a rookie, and Davis showed it there.

As others have discussed here already, for me the biggest concern with Davis continues to be not himself, but rather the Titans offense. Mariota is good, but if he remains a 3k passing yardage sort of QB, for Davis to reach his statistical potential he's gonna need to become a truly ball-hogging alpha receiver.

[clarion contrarion]

The play off game simply confirmed the possibility of davis performing to his draft capital , the crux remains with the titans defense . If they are good and they keep games close then the titans will likely titan on offense . If however the defense is leaky and needs to be bailed out it will force the titans to open up the offense and let all of their skill players exhibit some of the skills they possess. The week before the patriot game vs KC - davis went 4 for 35 / mariota threw for 199 yards to players other than himself and 1 TD . 62.5% of that total was to TE & RB.
I think davis is a locked in wr3 with wr 1 upside any given week.

[theyare]

Just went back to watch highlights from that Pats game. A lot of his catches came with Malcom Butler on him.
Also, a lot of his catches came in garbage time.

[btv802]

It's ok to have concerns, Davis' rookie year was hot garbage if you zoom out on it and judge objectively. However, he put together quite a highlight reel of impressive individual plays and probably had two of his best games of the season in week 16 vs Rams (9 for 6 and 91 yards) and then had the nice playoff performance against Pats (8 for 5 and 63 yards with two insano TD catches). In my opinion he clearly has the tools to be very good and with a full offseason of work with Mariota I expect we'll begin to see more of the complete games we saw him put together later in the season.

My bigger picture opinion, there seems to be two things happening. People seem to be unrealistically impatient with young WRs (effect of 2014 class and the instant impact of 2017 RBs) and there is also a real talent drought coming out of college in the past 3-4 years so people are a bit scared to sit on yet another potential bust. In my humble opinion, Davis looks to be one of the safest bets to be really good for a very long time. I don't think these types of prospects are growing on trees at the moment so I want to own him.

[Krypto_King]

Sorry, but it was a terrible explanation. He basically said fantasy points = ability rankings and then said situation is king and Ameer Abdullah is as good as Zeke Elliott. Neither of those make sense and especially not when combined together.

Juju can be good and still not as good as Corey Davis. Juju can be good and it's still a fluke that a guy comped to Anquan Boldin averages 16 yards per catch and has a 97 yard touchdown in his rookie season. I'd be happy if I had either guy on my roster but as for projections for the rest of their careers I'd still much rather have Corey Davis.

C'mon Krypto think about it for a min. Do Fantasy points (stats) equate to rankings (adp/tier breakdown)? If you look around for 2018 rankings/etc it would likely appear that way, and I'd also say there's a pretty high correlation, but maybe this isn't your experience. Maybe that's why it doesn't "make sense."

Maybe in your league you play golf rules and the lowest scores win, John Ross must have been the number one pick in ur startup. OR maybe you can trade Corey Coleman (low fantasy points/ranking but lots of potential) for AB (high fantasy points/ranking). Not normally the way fantasy works, but there are lots of new formats around, who am I to judge.

Situation isn't necessary king, but if you ignore it, your team will never be as good as could be. If you need another example, look at Todd Gurley. Gurley is a top five startup pick (in normal formats - sorry john ross), but in 2016 he was terrible. Now, as far as we all know, it was still Gurley playing the games in 2016, it wasn't some imposter just wearing his jersey. But he was terrible in 2016, then bam, 2017 hits and he's a superstar again. What changed? ding ding ding, the overall team situation changed. His o-line changed, his coaching changed, his wr help changed, almost everything surrounding Gurley changed. To summarize, bad situation = worse stats, good situation = improved stats. Also don't put words in my mouth, I never said zeke wouldn't be good, I simply said you could of put Abdullah behind that Dallas oline and he would of looked like a monster too - and it's true. If you need proof, go look up The underwear thief/Joseph Randle, even he had great games behind that oline and he was terrible.

And yes maybe, just maybe Davis will eventually be better than Juju...but he isn't right now, and we don't have any hard data to suggest that he will be in the future, other than a gut feeling. Going with your gut is fun, and at the end of the day, that's all fantasy is about, but making trades and projections about "feelings" isn't a great valuation methodology.

But you are still completely contradicting yourself. You say Juju is better as fact because he had more fantasy points right after you explain how Todd Gurley's 2016 was not a true reflection of his ability. You have to pick one.
Neither ADP nor fantasy points = ability. That would make both Brees + Brady non-top 10 QBs which we know isn't true.

[Lotto4Life]

I'm concerned about the coaching. First time HC and first time play caller.

Michael Bush propelled me into the finals one year.

[Johnny Canuck]

But you are still completely contradicting yourself. You say Juju is better as fact because he had more fantasy points right after you explain how Todd Gurley's 2016 was not a true reflection of his ability. You have to pick one.
Neither ADP nor fantasy points = ability. That would make both Brees + Brady non-top 10 QBs which we know isn't true.

There is no contradiction. I never said Fantasy Points = Ability, I said I try to evaluate as much as possible based on objective evidence and data, rather than subjective measures like potential/etc.

Yes, someone can have all the ability in the world and still not score many fantasy points. No argument there. Put Antonio Brown on the Browns with Osweiler/Kizer as his QB, and he's not the AB we all know and love for fantasy. In this example, his ability remains constant, but his situation changed pretty dramatically. Same thing, regarding the Gurley example. During the Fisher years, Gurley wasn't that great fantasy-wise, but that wasn't about his ability, it was about his situation. So like I said before, situation matters. But Situation is just one variable in the fantasy point equation, the same way Ability is a variable in that equation.

The disconnect we're having is your confusing variables with products, and it's making your arguments convoluted. It appears the point you're trying to make is that "neither ADP nor fantasy points = ability." This is true, but not in the way you're stating it. ADP and Fantasy Points are NOT variables, they are products. A few very basic Fantasy equations could look something like this:

Eq 1) Ability x Situation = Fantasy Points in a Given Year

Eq 2) Speculation (Ability x Situation) = Perceived Future Production

Eq 3) Fantasy Points x Perceived Future Production = ADP

Now you can argue till your red in the face about Davis having better ability, but he might not ever become a fantasy stud if his situation isn't improved. To make a hyperbolic example, let's use Eq #1 for Davis and a few other players (Juju, Adams, and 2015 Josh Gordon just for fun). * Note these are not real predictive data numbers, more for example purposes.

Davis Ability = 25/30
Davis Situation = 4/10
Davis Eq 1) 25 x 4 = 100
*note the very high ability ranking.

Juju Ability = 20/30
Juju Situation = 6/10
Juju Eq 1) 20 x 6 = 120
*note the lower ability ranking to appease the davis truthers

Adams ability = 20/30
Adams situation = 10/10
Adams Eq 1) 20 x 10 = 200

Just for fun
2015 JGordon ability = 30/30
2015 JGordon situation = 0/10
2015 JGordon Eq 1) 30 x 0 = 0

In these examples, Davis has the highest ability (JG not included), but still scores the lowest out of the three due to the situation variable.

I said it before and I'll say it again, at this point in time, Juju is a better FANTASY player and not based on those example equations, but by the objective data we saw this season. Juju may not have more overall ability than Davis - but he is the better fantasy player currently, because situation matters. Ability is great, but I can't win a fantasy championship because my team has more ability. If I had David Johnson and OBJ last year you could argue that I had a ton of ability, but obviously I didn't win because their situations were both zero due to injury. I need fantasy points to win, and to get those I need both ability and situation.

No one, myself included, is saying Davis is a bust. Patience is key with prospects, esp receivers. Who will be the better player over the course of their respective careers remains to be seen, but right now Juju is the better player based on the data and visual evidence (tape).

Anyways, that's the end of this Davis/Juju pissing match for me, feel free to respond but I'm out on this thread. It's been fun.

[Jfever]

Well said & nice post JC. I agree with most of what you said there.

I guess I'd be splitting hairs when I say it, but. You said "but right now Juju is the better player based on the data and visual evidence (tape)." I think I come from the mind set that "better player and more productive player are not the same thing". I believe that C.Davis is the Better player, but, due to the reasons you laid out above, Juju is the more productive player right now. Production isn't 100% dependent on talent. some of it is situation, some is luck, some is due to a host of other factors. I agree though, patience is key.

[StableOfRBs]

It's ok to have concerns, Davis' rookie year was hot garbage if you zoom out on it and judge objectively. However, he put together quite a highlight reel of impressive individual plays and probably had two of his best games of the season in week 16 vs Rams (9 for 6 and 91 yards) and then had the nice playoff performance against Pats (8 for 5 and 63 yards with two insano TD catches). In my opinion he clearly has the tools to be very good and with a full offseason of work with Mariota I expect we'll begin to see more of the complete games we saw him put together later in the season.

My bigger picture opinion, there seems to be two things happening. People seem to be unrealistically impatient with young WRs (effect of 2014 class and the instant impact of 2017 RBs) and there is also a real talent drought coming out of college in the past 3-4 years so people are a bit scared to sit on yet another potential bust. In my humble opinion, Davis looks to be one of the safest bets to be really good for a very long time. I don't think these types of prospects are growing on trees at the moment so I want to own him.

Sounds like Devante Parker

[btv802]

Davis' rookie year was hot garbage if you zoom out on it and judge objectively. However, he put together quite a highlight reel of impressive individual plays

Sounds like Devante Parker

Haha yeah I imagine it accurately describes many rookie years of WRs taken with high draft capital, some who have achieved career success and some who have not. Could Corey Davis have a similar career path to Parker? Absolutely. Could Parker still have a great career? Absolutely.

[Jaysof]

As we all know, volume plays a huge role in fantasy football, and that means that a WR needs significant targets to be a WR1. During his three-year career, Marcus Mariota has never thrown more than 453 passes in a season. There is a new coaching staff coming in this year and that could mean a change in scheme, but as a fan of Davis's talent, I'm worried he'll never see the 120-125+ targets needed to be a yearly WR1. Thoughts?