Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

[Ryantacular]

Trade literally just went down in my league that I thought was interesting - Juju for Davis straight up.

I am a bit concerned about Davis and his situation, but not concerned enough I would send him for Juju straight up. Still prefer Davis talent.

Me either, this is crazy early for a risk trade like this.

[onetwothree]

At some point fans are going to expect better than 8-9 win seasons. Don't want Jeff Fisher 2.0. Margin for error not very high when you play this conservative style of trying to control clock.

Team was supposed to be for sale. A new owner would want to make a splash hire. Hope Mariota gets healthy and takes that next step forward and see if Davis can grow with him.

[Finfansteve]

Any new opinions on his future after his playoff performance in January?

[Needalife]

I think he'll be a solid WR2 with upside. I think the coaching change will be good but not great. I can't see Mariota feeding one guy consistently. All that said, I really like his skill set and size and am hoping for more but tempering expectations a little.

[FantasyFreak]

Trade literally just went down in my league that I thought was interesting - Juju for Davis straight up.

I am a bit concerned about Davis and his situation, but not concerned enough I would send him for Juju straight up. Still prefer Davis talent.

Me either, this is crazy early for a risk trade like this.

Why? JuJu was an elite prospect until a bit of a down junior year. He showed better in his rookie year, and is younger. I think Davis was overdrafted in the NFL. I liked him as a college player, but I'm not surprised JuJu looked better in their rookie years. I don't think there is as much risk as you think there is. JuJu is the younger, and better player at this point, and has the pedigree and college production to back up his rookie year. Nobody saw JuJu's rookie year as a fluke.

[Crazylegs]

I am a bit concerned about Davis and his situation, but not concerned enough I would send him for Juju straight up. Still prefer Davis talent.

Me either, this is crazy early for a risk trade like this.

Why? JuJu was an elite prospect until a bit of a down junior year. He showed better in his rookie year, and is younger. I think Davis was overdrafted in the NFL. I liked him as a college player, but I'm not surprised JuJu looked better in their rookie years. I don't think there is as much risk as you think there is. JuJu is the younger, and better player at this point, and has the pedigree and college production to back up his rookie year. Nobody saw JuJu's rookie year as a fluke.

I like JuJu fine. I do worry about him losing Big Ben.

[cazzie33]

Did I miss the part where Ju-Ju beans was injured,missed most of camp, missed multiple games and played @ well under 100% in a couple of others ?

Then when he did play was JS-S playing in a 1960's offense or a team that would push the ball downfield more than most. Not to mention having the defenses focus on the other WR & RB almost 100% .

Maybe a couple of those factors had a wee bit to do with Ju-Ju looking better most of their rookie years. Not to say Davis is light years ahead of Schuster Smith but until they both have been given equal opportunity to show what they can do I'm taking C. Davis all day.

As for what the future holds Davis got 15 targets in the two playoff games to finish the year with two TD's. I feel that is indicative of the type of usage he can expect going forward. Perhaps a little more in targets and definitely less in TD's. ( @130-140 targets and 8-10 TD's)

New offensive coordinator has to be more open than previous one. Not expecting an Air Raid though so it would be hard to see much above average for a teams WR 1 point of view.

Not worried in the least about C. Davis except for if soft tissue injuries keep popping up.

[Johnny Canuck]

Ppl talking about Juju being riskier than Davis screams anchoring bias.

"we just have to be patient, I drafted Davis higher than Juju so he must be better"...despite all the conflicting evidence we have. Yes patience is key for WR development, look at Funchess and Agholor, but you don't have a leg to stand on if your argument is "I know Davis is worse now, but he has way more potential than Juju so I value him higher" - this isn't madden we can't see a tangible potential rating, it's all speculation.

At this stage in their careers, Juju appears to be much more talented than Davis; Davis pretty much only potential currently. Yah yah end of the season stats blah blah - anyone can string together a couple games - Fuller was the number 1 WR in the NFL over 4 games last season does that mean we should use that miniature sample size to project his future stats...no...well we prob shouldn't use the two game sample for Davis either. Just saying.

If you were to believe some of the logic thrown around in this thread, Kevin White is prob more talented than Juju as well, yes White was injured lots and missed most of his training camp like Davis, and played in a terrible John Fox offense, but he has shown good when he was on the field, has lots of potential and was drafted high as well...see any similarities

Proven production over potential every time...esp if the guy that is producing is younger than the guy with all the 'potential'

*worrying about QB/Big Ben is fine, but do you want to win your league or not. If Ben goes, Pitt will get another QB and Juju will be fine - NTM it's not like Mariota is Rodgers (which is one of the very few QBs that drastically affects values imo).

In reference to the "equal opportunity"...guess what, no one in the NFL gets an equal opportunity....no one. Switch Abdullah with Zeke and we'd be talking about how amazing Abdullah is, put Doctson on Green Bay same thing, look at Woods last yr - his ppg jumped from WR79 in 2016 to WR19 in 2017, situation matters almost as much as talent. Complaining about opportunity is pure nonsense, situation is part of the equation in fantasy football, and being in a bad situation will squander talent and lower trade value...just like it's doing to Davis. If you don't like it, it's prob best to sell off players in bad situations, instead of buy them then complain about the situation when they don't produce like they 'potentially' could

[Jfever]

"In reference to the "equal opportunity"...guess what, no one in the NFL gets an equal opportunity....no one. Switch Abdullah with Zeke and we'd be talking about how amazing Abdullah is, put Doctson on Green Bay same thing, look at Woods last yr - his ppg jumped from WR79 in 2016 to WR19 in 2017, situation matters almost as much as talent. Complaining about opportunity is pure nonsense, situation is part of the equation in fantasy football, and being in a bad situation will squander talent and lower trade value...just like it's doing to Davis. If you don't like it, it's prob best to sell off players in bad situations, instead of buy them then complain about the situation when they don't produce like they 'potentially' could"

I agree with several points you made, but, I found myself thinking through the whole talent vs situation thing again as I read. Does playing in a dynasty format (potentially thinking long term) vs a redraft format (must win now) have any impact on your opinions that you shared here? In a dynasty format which I'm assuming is what format most of us are involved in, despite the difference in production of their rookie campaign, I myself wouldn't even think about it. I'd take C.Davis over JuJu easily. I'm a fan of both, I own both but, one shouldn't over weigh the present day situations to a fault in dynasty. just my 2 cents.

[Johnny Canuck]

"In reference to the "equal opportunity"...guess what, no one in the NFL gets an equal opportunity....no one. Switch Abdullah with Zeke and we'd be talking about how amazing Abdullah is, put Doctson on Green Bay same thing, look at Woods last yr - his ppg jumped from WR79 in 2016 to WR19 in 2017, situation matters almost as much as talent. Complaining about opportunity is pure nonsense, situation is part of the equation in fantasy football, and being in a bad situation will squander talent and lower trade value...just like it's doing to Davis. If you don't like it, it's prob best to sell off players in bad situations, instead of buy them then complain about the situation when they don't produce like they 'potentially' could"

I agree with several points you made, but, I found myself thinking through the whole talent vs situation thing again as I read. Does playing in a dynasty format (potentially thinking long term) vs a redraft format (must win now) have any impact on your opinions that you shared here? In a dynasty format which I'm assuming is what format most of us are involved in, despite the difference in production of their rookie campaign, I myself wouldn't even think about it. I'd take C.Davis over JuJu easily. I'm a fan of both, I own both but, one shouldn't over weigh the present day situations to a fault in dynasty. just my 2 cents.

I play both, but in dynasty I try to only look about three years ahead, otherwise too many things can change and your left hanging on to Jeremy Maclin or Roddy White. Sometimes I'll forecast for around four/five yrs, but the situation has to be pretty much locked in across as many variables as possible. For example, a player whose four/five yr outlook I like is Adams. Aaron Rodgers should be in Green Bay till he retires, Adams is signed for four more yrs, WRs don't usually fall off a cliff like RBs, in four years he'll only be 29, he's the number one WR on the team with not a lot of competition from below, he has solid historical production, GB need lots of pieces on defense so those will likely be their draft picks for the next couple years, and even if they do draft a WR in 2019/2020, Rodgers usually likes to build up trust before he heavily leans on a WR.

But that's just one guy, there isn't a ton of guys that you can't accurately build a 4/5 yr model on (sometimes even a 3 is tough), there are just far too many unknowns to make a credible projection. That's why I usually only look three years in advance, and lean towards proven production. I try to win every year, despite playing in dynasty.

I could be wrong about Davis, but he has a ton of unknowns that go all the way back to predraft last season regarding injury concerns, small school production, etc. Then he gets thrown into a bad situation on Tenn so that's another negative. There simply isn't a ton of facts I can point to that provide me with any confidence that he'll be a good WR in the NFL, let alone an elite one. With Juju there are alot more data points, making him far easier to project. It's essentially fantasy football analysis using Occam's Razor the simplest answer is usually the correct one, and you just have to make far too many assumptions with Davis.

All Davis has to do is get injured at the beginning of this season and now he's Kevin White - lots of potential, but I can't project potential, it's not tangible.

It's like your sig says...Truth is found through Evidence.

I have evidence with Juju, I got nothing (or very little) with Davis.

[cazzie33]

Equal opportunity doesn't equate to EXACT SAME opportunity

Give both a full complement of snaps throughout a full season then compare production.Juju had his ... Davis didn't. How did things change for Tyreek or Kamara or K. Hunt when the opportunity increased due to obstacles being removed that limited their snaps ? Corey's were injuries to both he and his QB which limited not only playing time but practice time together. Most expect them to get better. Davis had 4 years of continuous solid to great production. Not a one-off fluke then turn pro. To act like he's done nothing to warrant any belief he can be productive is ignoring the facts.

Fact is he just hasn't been healthy til the tail end of the season. Fact is he missed most all of camp which limited practice time with QB who also missed time. Most don't expect that to be the case for the rest of their careers. If they play the vast majority of a season together and still don't produce then I'll tip my cap to you and say you were right. Until then you have only seen what Juju's potential is.

And as for "Davis, but he has a ton of unknowns that go all the way back to predraft last season regarding injury concerns, small school production, etc. " ... what we do know is he was #1 all time Div 1 in his receiving yds , #2 in TD's & #4 in catches . Couldn't have been injured too often to pile those numbers up. Jerry Rice & Randy Moss piled up their stats against similar if not lesser competition in college and I don't think you hold that against them. Davis got picked higher than both of them so I think there's enough there to assume that if healthy he has the talent. It's entirely possible Juju has the better career but acting like it's a given because all the evidence we need has already been laid out for us is ludicrous. Besides that the point of this thread is should we be worried about C. Davis, not whether he will have a superior career to Juju. I'm not worried beyond perpetual injury.

[Jfever]

Good explanation Johnny Canuk. Thanks for the thorough post. I see valid points on both sides. For me, owning both in one league, I guess I value the two players (JuJu and C.Davis) quite similarly, but, for different reasons. Patience is a virtue in dynasty, but, if you are trying to win every year, then, you have to take a few other things into consideration.

[Johnny Canuck]

Equal opportunity doesn't equate to EXACT SAME opportunity

Give both a full complement of snaps throughout a full season then compare production.Juju had his ... Davis didn't. How did things change for Tyreek or Kamara or K. Hunt when the opportunity increased due to obstacles being removed that limited their snaps ? Corey's were injuries to both he and his QB which limited not only playing time but practice time together. Most expect them to get better. Davis had 4 years of continuous solid to great production. Not a one-off fluke then turn pro. To act like he's done nothing to warrant any belief he can be productive is ignoring the facts.

Fact is he just hasn't been healthy til the tail end of the season. Fact is he missed most all of camp which limited practice time with QB who also missed time. Most don't expect that to be the case for the rest of their careers. If they play the vast majority of a season together and still don't produce then I'll tip my cap to you and say you were right. Until then you have only seen what Juju's potential is.

And as for "Davis, but he has a ton of unknowns that go all the way back to predraft last season regarding injury concerns, small school production, etc. " ... what we do know is he was #1 all time Div 1 in his receiving yds , #2 in TD's & #4 in catches . Couldn't have been injured too often to pile those numbers up. Jerry Rice & Randy Moss piled up their stats against similar if not lesser competition in college and I don't think you hold that against them. Davis got picked higher than both of them so I think there's enough there to assume that if healthy he has the talent. It's entirely possible Juju has the better career but acting like it's a given because all the evidence we need has already been laid out for us is ludicrous. Besides that the point of this thread is should we be worried about C. Davis, not whether he will have a superior career to Juju. I'm not worried beyond perpetual injury.

Obviously, fewer obstacles will help. But it looks like you're basing your entire Corey Davis Career forecast on his College numbers? that's not the most credible method, but if you think it is, you should trade me your starting WR1 for Justin Hardy, and your WR2 for Ryan Broyles.

Lots of guys put up huge college numbers and don't pan out. Here's a few guys that performed in CFB, and you tell me if any of them are elite fantasy football WRs: Dillard #1 in TDs, Broyles #5 in TDs, Stedman Bailey #10 in TDs, Insley #2 in yards, Broyles #3 in yards, Hardy #4 in yards, Edwards #6 in yards, Z Jones #1 in rec, Hardy #2 in rec, Broyles #3 in rec, Taylor #5 in rec....do you get the point.

Now obviously the difference with Davis, is he was drafted quite early. So there's a good chance he'll get a much greater chance to succeed. But his career projections are more based on speculation than they are on fact currently. He's a lotto ticket/gamble at best.

*Rice and Moss somehow making their way in this debate Davis can't hold their jockstrap

[Krypto_King]

Sorry, but it was a terrible explanation. He basically said fantasy points = ability rankings and then said situation is king and Ameer Abdullah is as good as Zeke Elliott. Neither of those make sense and especially not when combined together.

Juju can be good and still not as good as Corey Davis. Juju can be good and it's still a fluke that a guy comped to Anquan Boldin averages 16 yards per catch and has a 97 yard touchdown in his rookie season. I'd be happy if I had either guy on my roster but as for projections for the rest of their careers I'd still much rather have Corey Davis.

[Johnny Canuck]

Sorry, but it was a terrible explanation. He basically said fantasy points = ability rankings and then said situation is king and Ameer Abdullah is as good as Zeke Elliott. Neither of those make sense and especially not when combined together.

Juju can be good and still not as good as Corey Davis. Juju can be good and it's still a fluke that a guy comped to Anquan Boldin averages 16 yards per catch and has a 97 yard touchdown in his rookie season. I'd be happy if I had either guy on my roster but as for projections for the rest of their careers I'd still much rather have Corey Davis.

C'mon Krypto think about it for a min. Do Fantasy points (stats) equate to rankings (adp/tier breakdown)? If you look around for 2018 rankings/etc it would likely appear that way, and I'd also say there's a pretty high correlation, but maybe this isn't your experience. Maybe that's why it doesn't "make sense."

Maybe in your league you play golf rules and the lowest scores win, John Ross must have been the number one pick in ur startup. OR maybe you can trade Corey Coleman (low fantasy points/ranking but lots of potential) for AB (high fantasy points/ranking). Not normally the way fantasy works, but there are lots of new formats around, who am I to judge.

Situation isn't necessary king, but if you ignore it, your team will never be as good as could be. If you need another example, look at Todd Gurley. Gurley is a top five startup pick (in normal formats - sorry john ross), but in 2016 he was terrible. Now, as far as we all know, it was still Gurley playing the games in 2016, it wasn't some imposter just wearing his jersey. But he was terrible in 2016, then bam, 2017 hits and he's a superstar again. What changed? ding ding ding, the overall team situation changed. His o-line changed, his coaching changed, his wr help changed, almost everything surrounding Gurley changed. To summarize, bad situation = worse stats, good situation = improved stats. Also don't put words in my mouth, I never said zeke wouldn't be good, I simply said you could of put Abdullah behind that Dallas oline and he would of looked like a monster too - and it's true. If you need proof, go look up The underwear thief/Joseph Randle, even he had great games behind that oline and he was terrible.

And yes maybe, just maybe Davis will eventually be better than Juju...but he isn't right now, and we don't have any hard data to suggest that he will be in the future, other than a gut feeling. Going with your gut is fun, and at the end of the day, that's all fantasy is about, but making trades and projections about "feelings" isn't a great valuation methodology.