Is Evan engram being severely overvalued right now?

[sloth8u]

In all fairness...Hunter Henry was receiving this same love last year. Pretty sure he was ranked right around 50 aswell?

Is it simply everyone looking for the next great te and overvaluing these guys at the current time?

[sloth8u]

lets call a spade a spade here....engram is producing closer to the "average te" than he is gronk, graham, kelce, and ertz. thats not saying that he wont get there, but top 5/6 rookie pick?

Ok but why would we compare his stats to the top TEs? We don't expect Corey Davis or Devante Parker to have similar numbers to OBJ or Evans, do we? No, we just hope for WR3 numbers as a rookie. If a rookie WR is startable AT ALL, even as a WR3 or Flex, then that's a big success. So using that logic, yes it's very impressive that Engram has been a mid-level TE1 for most of the year.

I do agree he's a sell high tho, because it's not realistic to take his rookie stats and assume he will improve massively from here on out.

I through the comparison out there because most owners won't pay a top 5 for those guys.

I hadn't realized he climbed the rankings that much. I had offered Corey Coleman for him, and was told that the other owner preferred engram and to check the rankings. Was shocked to see how far he rose.

[95dent]

I flipped him about a month ago for Delanie Walker and a 2018 1st (will be low).

Have been in two minds whether it was a good move for me ever since.

[hjernazian]

interesting points. I could probably flip him for Mike Williams + with one owner who's extremely high on him. but the guy has the looks of a superstar in the making. overvalued? yes. pretty damn good athlete that can be part of a truly terrifying offense IF and ONCE McAdoo is gone, they draft a good RB (maybe), and have Odell, Shephard, Engram, (insert a top 5 rookie draft RB here) and qb? He can be awesome.

I don't know... if I move him I still have Rudolph to play weekly while Njoku develops. Can you guys fill me in a little about M. Williams? I don't really know much about him... Rivers and Keenan Allen seem to me like they may limit his potential.

[StableOfRBs]

People keep acting like Shep and OBJ coming back is gonna help Engram improve his numbers but it's really not a positive, both Shep and OBJ are huge target detractors from Engram, honestly most of the reason he's even seeing the target share he has right now is because of all the injuries. Engram was meant to come into the season as the #4/5 target behind OBJ, Shep, Brandon Marshall and maybe Vereen.

Yes, he will see reduced coverage (although teams aren't exactly scheming to take him away right now), but that does no good if he isn't being targeted and so far he's done little to prove that he's worth a heavy target share. Right now Engram has a <55% catch rate which for a TE, who generally get high % throws, is terrible and yea he's scored a few times but he's not exactly breaking huge plays either.

And yes, a lot of young/rookie QBs tend to lean on TEs because they can use them as safety blankets but again, if Engram isn't catching at least a decent % of his targets then what QB is going to use him to dump the ball off. Assuming McAdoo leaves and assuming OBJ and Shepard are healthy for all of next year and assuming the Giants bring in a younger guy who is at least competent I still don't see a ton of room for Engram to produce. Of all the top TEs this year the one thing they have in common is being target hogs.

Where some of the better TEs this year rank on their teams in terms of targets:

-Zach Ertz, 2nd
-Kyle Rudolph, 2nd
-Delanie Walker, 1st
-Jack Doyle, 1st
-Jimmy Graham, 2nd
-Travis Kelce, 1st
-Gronk, 2nd
-Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, 3rd (although he missed 2 games this year, he's 2nd in terms of targets per game)
-Jason Witten, 2nd

Engram is leading the Giants in targets so far this year but I just don't see that continuing with a healthy Shepard and OBJ next season. I could very easily see him finishing all 16 games next year with the same/similar numbers to what he has now through 11 games.

[dazza]

He's clearly hit the rookie wall but it's absurd to be worrying about him.

Exactly this

People keep acting like Shep and OBJ coming back is gonna help Engram improve his numbers but it's really not a positive, both Shep and OBJ are huge target detractors from Engram, honestly most of the reason he's even seeing the target share he has right now is because of all the injuries. Engram was meant to come into the season as the #4/5 target behind OBJ, Shep, Brandon Marshall and maybe Vereen.

Yes, he will see reduced coverage (although teams aren't exactly scheming to take him away right now), but that does no good if he isn't being targeted and so far he's done little to prove that he's worth a heavy target share. Right now Engram has a <55% catch rate which for a TE, who generally get high % throws, is terrible and yea he's scored a few times but he's not exactly breaking huge plays either.

And yes, a lot of young/rookie QBs tend to lean on TEs because they can use them as safety blankets but again, if Engram isn't catching at least a decent % of his targets then what QB is going to use him to dump the ball off. Assuming McAdoo leaves and assuming OBJ and Shepard are healthy for all of next year and assuming the Giants bring in a younger guy who is at least competent I still don't see a ton of room for Engram to produce. Of all the top TEs this year the one thing they have in common is being target hogs.

Where some of the better TEs this year rank on their teams in terms of targets:

-Zach Ertz, 2nd
-Kyle Rudolph, 2nd
-Delanie Walker, 1st
-Jack Doyle, 1st
-Jimmy Graham, 2nd
-Travis Kelce, 1st
-Gronk, 2nd
-Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, 3rd (although he missed 2 games this year, he's 2nd in terms of targets per game)
-Jason Witten, 2nd

Engram is leading the Giants in targets so far this year but I just don't see that continuing with a healthy Shepard and OBJ next season. I could very easily see him finishing all 16 games next year with the same/similar numbers to what he has now through 11 games.

Count me on the opposite side of all these points. Of course he was brought in to be the 4/5 target this year. No sane NFL GM/coach would expect more from a rookie TE. But it's insane to think they drafted a WR/TE hybrid type that early to not be a high target guy down the road.

Engram is obviously getting more volume this year than if the others had stayed healthy, but those targets are of vastly inferior quality than if they were on the field. I've made the claim before that defenses are focusing on Engram. Frankly I don't know if that's the case for sure, but I do know that there's been literally no other offensive player on that team that any defense would have the slightest worry about most weeks. Even if they're not focused on Engram this year, you can be sure they WILL be focused on OBJ next year, and that's going to open up the field for a guy like Engram

As for the drops, I'm really not too worried about them. I see them as either a sign he's hit the rookie wall, that his head is spinning from being thrust into a role he wasn't ready for yet as a rookie, that he's simply feeling the pressure of being the only legit target on the team and trying to do to much, or some combination of the three. I see it as most likely a fixable issue, and am not going to downgrade the value of his immense talent because of drops as a rookie (especially if Amari is still holding most of his value despite his own drop issues)

Speaking of talent, he's got it in spades. He may already be the 2nd most talented pass catcher on the roster after OBJ. And yes, young QBs do tend to favor the big targets who work the middle of the field. He's likely to be the #2/3 target next year, and I'll roll with his talent over Shepard's for #2 after that. He's a guy who has legitimate potential to put up WR1/2 numbers from the TE spot.

If he's overvalued right now, it's not by much

[CK_]

Overvalued is a strong word for something that seems to be so slight. If he is overvalued then it is meager numbers. Minus week 5 he was doing fine in PPR even with Odell. I would be as far to say damn good for a rookie. Maybe there is some panic due to the past couple of games? He is a rookie that is a TE and has been forced into a position as the main WR1/TE1 due to Shepard, Marshall, and OBJ out. He will be fine and he is getting better overall. He produced fine with them there and will again when they come back.

[Tsunami]

In all fairness...Hunter Henry was receiving this same love last year. Pretty sure he was ranked right around 50 aswell?

Is it simply everyone looking for the next great te and overvaluing these guys at the current time?

Hunter Henry's value was partly projecting Antonio Gates' performance onto a younger player. It wasn't really about him, it was largely his situation. Engram has something that Henry doesn't, elite athleticism. The difference between these two is three tenths in the 40. That's long-term upside that should hold his value better than Henry. This current rookie success will probably wear off but he will always be amazingly fast for a TE. Whether that translates to production we will have to wait and see.

[sloth8u]

I guess for me, this is rare air......gronk, Graham, eifert, reed, Julius thomas, kelce, ertz now, Henry possibly last year and Ingram now. That's just not very many Te's over the last few years.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Maybe slightly overvalued. But I tend to agree with those who believe additional weapons for the Giants on offense will open up more high quality targets than what Engram is seeing now. Lower volume? Probably. But I don't think we're seeing Engram's ceiling in his rookie year. There's room for growth and improvement. I'm intrigued and holding unless I get a really nice offer for him.

In a few years I do think we'll view this as the "Rookie WR Class 2014" for TE's. The TE's of 2017 will end up being the infusion of youth and talent at a position that hasn't seen many quality prospects in recent years.

[Space Cowboy]

And where are we now? Engram is an elite dynasty TE.

[Coogan Football]

And where are we now? Engram is an elite dynasty TE.

I agree. What more could you ask out of a rookie? TE or not, this kid is a first year stud. What a nice rookie class so far with Watson, Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, Engram, Marshawn Lattimore, Kupp and a few others. Those guys are every week starters in most formats

[sloth8u]

And where are we now? Engram is an elite dynasty TE.

I'll feel a lot better about the top 50 ranking if he finishes the season with similar performances as today. His best game thus far....Hopefully we see some consistency over the next few weeks.

[heydangle]

For a team that I was looking to rebuild the other owner wanted Gronk, straight up for Engram. So that's where he's at. If he can stay healthy, why can't he be the next Gronk? I instead traded him for Njoku and a lottery 1st- could be Barkley could be trash, but anyway..It's rare to see a rookie TE do this. Maybe he's special.

[dipANDglide]

I <3 Engram. He's going to EAT even more when OBJ gets back.