Alex Collins

[Servo]

Non-PPR I just recently sold him for what was going to be a 2.05-2.06 but the team's pick I received has now magically gone on a playoff run and made it to the finals.

[Jigga94]

Will be a good problem for BAL next year. Assuming Collins stays at the 1 and looks mostly like a better Rob Kelley (like Lukky said) just on running downs. Our 3rd down back will still be Woodhead probably. That leaves Buck and Dixon to fight for the 3rd spot and Buck has played very well as a change of pace. I think Dixon definitely loses as what Buck is doing right now, is pretty much what you would hope from someone like Dixon

[lukkynumber13]

So the real question is: If you're not a believer what do you sell for?

I would sell for a top 8, maybe top 10 pick (if it was OTC for instance and I liked who was available at 9 or 10)

I just think he's a Chris Ivory, Legarette Blount, Isaiah Crowell, Jordan Howard (heresy, I know!) level talent. Not comparing running styles necessarily, just talent level compared to replacement backs.

As I type those words, maybe I'm being dumb because if I think he has a similar talent-level to Howard than shouldn't I expect he has at least a SHOT at multiple 1000-yard seasons? Maybe.

I can tell you that if I was offered the 1.06-07 I would sell in a heartbeat.

[CharlieKelly]

Heh, it's funny seeing this thread pop up again.

FWIW I see much more than a Rob Kelley type here. The impressive footwork and fight to keep his legs churning actually reminds me a little bit of a mini Beast Mode.

[KRT]

I think with what Collins has done this year the Ravens have to at least give him the opportunity to keep the job next year. Dixon maybe more talented(and that can be debated) but how many chances do they give him between his injuries and suspension. While Collins may not be a every down back you cant say he doesn't have the capability of getting targets in the passing game. While he only has 18 targets all year , he has caught 13 of them for 121 yards. He actually had 7 targets week 11(the week Woodhead came back). I agree Woodhead will stay the 3rd down back but he has to stay on the field as well. If given the chance to keep the lead back role I can easily see Collins being a weekly RB2 with an occasional RB1 thrown in. Considering most owners picked him up off waivers I am sure they would be ok with that return.

[nathanq42]

if spencer ware can work on his hands to become a 3 down back I am sure Collins can too

[DJB]

Heh, it's funny seeing this thread pop up again.

FWIW I see much more than a Rob Kelley type here. The impressive footwork and fight to keep his legs churning actually reminds me a little bit of a mini Beast Mode.

This. Hes underrated in my mind

[thebeast]

I actually own the guys in a few places and hope he works out (and just drafted him in a startup), but this feels a lot like Rawls, and Ware, etc. I think he has a very tenuous grip on that job.

[DJB]

I guess I like him way more than others it seems. Everyone is looking to sell or doesn't trust him. I love his quick feet and the power he shows. Hes a work in progress in the passing game but to me he a very cheap RB2 right now who carries great TD potential.

[nathanq42]

Holy crap he is listed at 210... That makes me less impressed with his speed last year but way more impressed with the power he displayed. I thought he was up at 225...

[Plank]

I don't normally quote others work, but I can't resist in this case, this is Warren Sharp on Collins ..

"Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Ravens faced the NFL's 13th toughest schedule of run defenses, Allen managed 3.7 ypc and a 37% success rate on 82 carries in that span. (Allen did shine on 3rd downs with a 59% success rate and 5.1 ypc.) Collins didn't play on 3rd downs, but he recorded 6 ypc and a 45% success rate on early down runs in Weeks 1-7.

The tide turned in W8 against the Dolphins, when Collins torched MIA for 6.1 ypc and a 59% Success Rate compared to Allen's 3 ypc with 43% success. Collins took over from that point forward, averaging 4.1 ypc with a 53% Success Rate on 150 att despite facing the NFL's 7th toughest run defense schedule from W8 on.

Overall, Collins 50% rushing success rate ranked 4th among 32 RBs with at least 150 carries, trailing only Todd Gurley, Zeke, and Dion Lewis. And Collins faced the the league's 8th hardest run defense sked. Elliot and Lewis both faced easier than avg slates. Collin's 4.6 ypc avg ranked 5th among those 32 backs."

Consider he was playing with a less stellar cast and also the League's most injured offensive line blocking for him, 7th worst passing efficiency vs 3rd softest pass sked ... pretty good.

[fakespike13]

I don't normally quote others work, but I can't resist in this case, this is Warren Sharp on Collins ..

"Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Ravens faced the NFL's 13th toughest schedule of run defenses, Allen managed 3.7 ypc and a 37% success rate on 82 carries in that span. (Allen did shine on 3rd downs with a 59% success rate and 5.1 ypc.) Collins didn't play on 3rd downs, but he recorded 6 ypc and a 45% success rate on early down runs in Weeks 1-7.

The tide turned in W8 against the Dolphins, when Collins torched MIA for 6.1 ypc and a 59% Success Rate compared to Allen's 3 ypc with 43% success. Collins took over from that point forward, averaging 4.1 ypc with a 53% Success Rate on 150 att despite facing the NFL's 7th toughest run defense schedule from W8 on.

Overall, Collins 50% rushing success rate ranked 4th among 32 RBs with at least 150 carries, trailing only Todd Gurley, Zeke, and Dion Lewis. And Collins faced the the league's 8th hardest run defense sked. Elliot and Lewis both faced easier than avg slates. Collin's 4.6 ypc avg ranked 5th among those 32 backs."

Consider he was playing with a less stellar cast and also the League's most injured offensive line blocking for him, 7th worst passing efficiency vs 3rd softest pass sked ... pretty good.

Sharp also said (on rotounderworld podcast) that Alex Collins is his favorite RB in the NFL, relative to ADP, which is currently around 40 in ppr redraft. basically it sounds like Sharp thinks Collins can be a RB1. I'm on board, Collins looked electric. Hes my RB 4 but I'm not selling him until I get the right piece back.

[Irbir]

What type of piece are you looking for in terms of player or picks? I’m curious about his value.

[fakespike13]

What type of piece are you looking for in terms of player or picks? I’m curious about his value.

One trade i'm going to try is Collins+throw in for Baldwin. The guy's RB situation is ugly (yeldon, blount, sproles, richard, gillislee) though he picks 6th in the draft. the guy isn't winning and should sell off his older pieces. i'm in win now mode and Collins is my 4th best RB, Baldwin could be my best WR in the short term.

[JDogil12]

Collins seems like a slam dunk top 20 back with no competition and is being drafted as rb 31 right now. He is one of my favorite values right now. Ravens beat guys (I know it's early) say that everything they've seen point to the backfield being his