Value of 1.01

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Tsunami
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Tsunami » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:01 am

In the Zeke year 1.01 was worth considerably more than 1.02, but only after he went to Dallas. This past year (like most years) there was not really as much of a consensus among the top 2-4 spots. I don't know enough about next year's likely rookies to guess which way it will go right now, but I tend to think that 1.2 + 1.7 is almost always worth a great deal more than 1.1.

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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby btv802 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:33 am

dazza wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:50 am Man, seems like this isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to include 1.02.

Barkley is a beast, no doubt, and I get why everyone wants him, but I'm really not sure Guice is far behind.
The buzz I hear is that Guice isn't a lock to come out, but agreed he seems pretty awesome as well. I'm in pretty solid position to end with 1.01 or 1.02 this year, worst case 1.03 so I'm hoping he does.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby psu007 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:48 am

Good discussion. Currently own four 1st rounders, as of right now they project to 3, 4, 5, and 10. My own pick is #3, and there's a chance it could move to #2 and outside chance at #1. My dilemma is the likely #1 is also a PSU fan. Keep debating with myself how many picks I'd send. I'll say this if I end up with #2 and Guice is there I'll try my best to include the latest 1st possible, otherwise I might be prepared to send 3 of them. Ideally I'll package a player in there, but we'll see.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Boomstick » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:39 pm

dazza wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:50 am Man, seems like this isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to include 1.02.

Barkley is a beast, no doubt, and I get why everyone wants him, but I'm really not sure Guice is far behind. Guice has dealt with some injury issues this season, but is everyone really so sure Barkley is by far the superior talent? Everyone here is really ok with (likely) trading Guice plus pick 6-7 (and more) for Barkley? What happens if Guice ends up in a superior team situation? What happens if he keeps coming on and Barkley keeps tailing off ROS?

If it's me, I'm not including the second pick. If that means I can't get the first, so be it, but I'm nowhere near convinced there's enough talent difference between these two to give up one of them plus a substantial amount for the other
I agree with this. When the dust settles at the end of the season, after the combine and when we learn the landing spots of the backs in this class, we will have a better idea as to the value of the draft picks. In my opinion, it is too early to break the bank to get the 1.1, especially if you have to give up the 1.2. This doesn't look to be anything like the 2016 draft in which there was Zeke and then everyone else. That was the year to break the bank to attain the 1.1. But giving up Guice, 1.7 and 1.12? That could prove to be too much when we look at this after the draft. If I gave up all that and watch Barkley go to the Browns, I'd go nuts.

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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby darkadun » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:26 am

dazza wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:50 am Man, seems like this isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to include 1.02.

Barkley is a beast, no doubt, and I get why everyone wants him, but I'm really not sure Guice is far behind. Guice has dealt with some injury issues this season, but is everyone really so sure Barkley is by far the superior talent? Everyone here is really ok with (likely) trading Guice plus pick 6-7 (and more) for Barkley? What happens if Guice ends up in a superior team situation? What happens if he keeps coming on and Barkley keeps tailing off ROS?

If it's me, I'm not including the second pick. If that means I can't get the first, so be it, but I'm nowhere near convinced there's enough talent difference between these two to give up one of them plus a substantial amount for the other
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I’d probably do the 1.01 and another solid young player or 2nd, but definitely not another first. Depth is very important in developing a good fantasy team, and if you can manage to hit on both your firsts this year, you’re in a better situation than just drafting 1 really good player.

It’s up to you, but if it was me, I’d love to get two picks in the top 7 for the 1st overall.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Madadamus » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:12 pm

It’s going to take a lot more than a mid 1st to move up from the 1.02 as it stands right now.

We can all talk about rebuilding and having more pieces, but unless you are trading the pick for multiple younger guys, no way should you move it for just 2 picks even if it’s the 1.02 that is included.

Obviously we are already anointing him, but just look at this last year in a much deeper class. Would you really want to trade Fournette for a guy like Mixon or Mcaffrey and John Ross/O.J. Howard?

In just a few months, the pick is going to be a top 10 asset at a minimum. Would you trade Elliott for the 1.02 and 1.07 in February? No, most likely you’re not.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Vcize » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:45 pm

Tsunami wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:01 am In the Zeke year 1.01 was worth considerably more than 1.02, but only after he went to Dallas. This past year (like most years) there was not really as much of a consensus among the top 2-4 spots. I don't know enough about next year's likely rookies to guess which way it will go right now, but I tend to think that 1.2 + 1.7 is almost always worth a great deal more than 1.1.
Obviously things can change, but right now the consensus is that there is a massive chasm between Saquon Barkley and the next guy up. Pre-draft, bigger than there has been in recent memory.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Nanananananana » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:09 pm

dazza wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:50 am Man, seems like this isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to include 1.02.

Barkley is a beast, no doubt, and I get why everyone wants him, but I'm really not sure Guice is far behind. Guice has dealt with some injury issues this season, but is everyone really so sure Barkley is by far the superior talent? Everyone here is really ok with (likely) trading Guice plus pick 6-7 (and more) for Barkley? What happens if Guice ends up in a superior team situation? What happens if he keeps coming on and Barkley keeps tailing off ROS?

If it's me, I'm not including the second pick. If that means I can't get the first, so be it, but I'm nowhere near convinced there's enough talent difference between these two to give up one of them plus a substantial amount for the other
I agree Guice looks like a Zeke clone to me. I love Barkley but 1.2 will be a nice consolation prize. No guarantee Barkley goes to a good situation.

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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby keebs3 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:20 pm

I'm nearly a lock to own the 1.01 and I don't plan on moving it. Considering I'll also likely own the 1.02 and 1.03 I'm going all in on Barkley and Guice. As a team that doesn't have many Studs I don't need extra early picks- I'm taking the ones at the top and hoping to build around them for years.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby krombj19 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:22 pm

Barkley is back on his game.. 9 carries for 117 Yards and two touchdowns. 2 receptions for 29 Yards. Still have 9 minutes to go in the 2nd Quarter.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby cazzie33 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:27 pm

Landing spot is crucial. Put Zeke where the second RB went or just swap the two out. How does Zeke stack up then ?

Same goes for Saquon vs #2 . Look a K. Hunt, if he went to Cincy or Carolina do you think he's remotely as productive ? Line play and QB proficiency make a RB's life so much easier. Bad line or QB play and his life can become a nightmare. Ask AP .

That being said Saquon if all reports are to be believed should test off the charts. The gap would be as wide as Ezekiel vs the rest. Barkley will test better than Elliot or anyone else in quite a long while. Doesn't mean he will produce more than a Barry, Bo or all the way back in the day O.J. who were physical far ahead of the pack. But odds are pretty good when combined with the tape he's put out there.

I'd have to get the 1.02 & 1.07 or better to move it right now. As said it could change depending on landing places.

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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Leghumper » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:03 am

Why are we comparing this situation to 2016? Guice is 100X better than any RB who came out with Zeke that year. That was a piss poor draft class after Zeke...apples and oranges.
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby maxhyde » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:36 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:39 pm By the time the draft hype is in full swing, Barkley could be somwhere around a Top 12-20 selection in startups.

Personally, I don't like the depth of this class to be interested in more picks for the 1.01. I'd feel comfortable betting on Barkley over anyone else. So, to pry 1.01, I think it would take an undeniable offer.
I agree with him being near 1st round startup guy but I am not so sure there aren't a number of pretty good players behind him. Guice is still pretty good consolation prize and pick 7 or 12...who knows at this point but I think there are some talented guys other than Barkley in the draft to make me consider trading back depends how ugly my rebuild is. I am selling out for 1.01 if I have a good team and can keep it mostly intact
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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby Tsunami » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:55 am

Leghumper wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:03 am Why are we comparing this situation to 2016? Guice is 100X better than any RB who came out with Zeke that year. That was a piss poor draft class after Zeke...apples and oranges.
Because Zeke was an extraordinary situation and the value of 1.1 hit a record high, and some people here are valuing 1.1 as high as 2016 despite not knowing what team he might be on. Would you trade Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, or Dalvin Cook for 1.2 + 1.7? I would.

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Re: Value of 1.01

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:51 am

I just want to throw out that I made a draft pick trade chart in my sig. Read the comments from the DLF Admin. You can customize the chart to fit your criteria, and then use it to gauge value. I will be updating the chart this off-season.

In terms of value, 1.01 vs 1.02 & 1.12 has a mid-third differential, which doesn't seem like a big difference. If the 1.12 pick were to find it's way to the 1.07 range, the difference would be more of a late 1st rounder.

If you like to gamble, I'd absolutely take a shot with the 1.02/1.12 side.
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