Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

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Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:57 am

Chris Thompson is currently RB11 in PPR. Despite that, his value has never really peaked into much, and if anything it is even lower now after a couple of meh games in a row.

However, I think it's worth mentioning that Thompson's best games of the season by far this year were the two games that Rob Kelley missed. Check out these splits.

Per game average when Kelley was out
Touches: 17
Yards: 163
FF Pts: 24.3

Per game average when Kelley was active
Touches: 9.1
Yards: 63.5
FF Pts: 13.2

Kelley is of course now on season ending IR.

Not much of a sample size, obviously, but Washington clearly seems to trust Kelley more than Perine. Without Kelley, Thompson has been getting about twice as much work, and pretty well twice as much fantasy production.

Now there are obvious concerns beyond this year. I expect Washington to do a better job of bringing in offensive weapons this offseason that demand a larger piece of the offense (they tried last offseason but missed on just about everyone).

However, people are paying 1st round picks for guys like Fitz and Brady who are 1-2 year rentals and Thompson can probably be had for about half the cost but could easily end up providing just as large an advantage if not larger. Plus, it's not like it's just a 1-2 year rental for Thompson, even if he fades he should still be a solid flex player in future years. And lastly there is an outside shot that he has really turned a corner and remains a solid high RB2 going forward. Remember Darren Sproles didn't become a top fantasy player until his 7th season, Thompson is still in his 5th.

TLDR; With Kelley out Thompson may provide as much of a boost down the stretch as guys like Fitz and Brady at a much cheaper cost, while also providing solid flex play in future years with an outside shot at more.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Lynch, Peterson, Conner, Foreman, Drake, Hightower
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

Team 2 (12 team PPR, TE Premium, q/r/r/w/w/f/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wentz, Luck, Garropolo
RB: Hunt: Ajayi, Thompson, White, Drake, Foreman, Mckissic
WR: OBJ, Cooks, Benjamin, Moncrief, Richardson, Amendola
TE: Fiedorowicz, Davis, Watson, Derby
K: Zeurlein
D: Broncos

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby brewster » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:02 am

Thompson has been named the main beneficiary of Kelley being placed on IR along with Perine getting some grinding carries (short yardage, etc). I'd hold if you're making a run or if you have depth, see what you can get but think he could be a difference maker for some in playoffs!

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby James McGhee » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:46 am

Where do we value Thompson in picks? I offered a mid 2nd for him and was told it would take at least a 1st. Is he worth a late 1st?
12 team league; 15 man roster; .5 pt PPR;
QB/RB/2 WR/TE/2 FLX/K/DEF

QB: Tom Brady, Jared Goff
RB: Lesean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Samaje Perine, D'Onta Foreman, Ty Montgomery
WR: AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE: Rob Gronkowski
K: Dan Bailey, Patrick Murray
DEF: Steelers Defense, Lions Defense

DLF Forum Co-Dynasty League
16 team IDP league - 53 man rosters
http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2017/o ... =07&F=0006

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:04 pm

James McGhee wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:46 am
Where do we value Thompson in picks? I offered a mid 2nd for him and was told it would take at least a 1st. Is he worth a late 1st?
Id say hes not worth that.

unless you think a Darren Sproles is in the making and that's what you would have paid for him.
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs

QB- Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater
RB- Ezekiel Elliot, Lamar Miller,Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen, Isaiah Crowell,Elijah McGwire
WR- Michael Thomas, Doug Baldwin, Adam Theilen, Rishard Matthews, Cameron Meredith, Corey Coleman, Josh Gordon, Jermey Maclin
TE-Jack Doyle,Tyler Croft, RSJ
D/ST-Jaguars
K- Chris Boswell
Picks 2018-None
2019- First, Second x3 and Third (Another Owners)

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:05 pm

joeya2001 wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:04 pm
James McGhee wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:46 am
Where do we value Thompson in picks? I offered a mid 2nd for him and was told it would take at least a 1st. Is he worth a late 1st?
Id say hes not worth that.

unless you think a Darren Sproles is in the making and that's what you would have paid for him.
Well if he's a Darren Sproles that just turned 27 then he is worth far more than a 1st, because Sproles had 6 RB1-RB3 seasons left at that point.

The reality is that in most leagues I think a 2nd would get it done (though it didn't in James' case). Most think a 1st is an overpay but that is kind of my point. People are willing to pay a 1st for Fitzgerald who likely has literally no future as a football player beyond this year, or a 1st for Brady who likely has only a minimal future beyond this year. I think Thompson may very well end up providing as much of a boost the rest of this year as Fitz/Brady will, but with a future (even if it is only as a flex option once Washington reloads on offense) to boot.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Lynch, Peterson, Conner, Foreman, Drake, Hightower
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

Team 2 (12 team PPR, TE Premium, q/r/r/w/w/f/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wentz, Luck, Garropolo
RB: Hunt: Ajayi, Thompson, White, Drake, Foreman, Mckissic
WR: OBJ, Cooks, Benjamin, Moncrief, Richardson, Amendola
TE: Fiedorowicz, Davis, Watson, Derby
K: Zeurlein
D: Broncos

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby Plank » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:47 pm

Long as you have a plan for W15 and W16, he'll face ARI which is 9th in Rush DEF EFF (5th to Pass RB) and DEN who is 1st in Rush DEF EFF (10th to Pass RB) ..

He would have two good match-ups with the Saints W11, and DAL W13 ... NYG is 4th to Pass RB, but 27th in Rush DEF EFF (W12)

LAC, is 22nd in Rush DEF EFF, and 12th to Pass RB .. You'll have to weigh out his value in the passing game and what he can do with rushes .. if the majority of his value is going to be from the pass game, he might not be valuable for the stretch run .. I'd almost be willing to try Perine up to W15 ..

RB Pass EFF DEF
Image

Rush EFF DEF:
Image

If I owned him I'd love to sell after this week, since the trade deadlines are rapidly approaching.
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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby fakespike13 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:06 am

If you really can get Thompson for "cheap" i'd do it. I wouldn't sell him unless i was blown away.
The Jaggernaut
16 team Dynasty PPR, 20 man rosters, QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, TE, D, K, 3 IR
9-4 1737 points (lead 15 of 15 teams by >100 pts, 14 by >200 pts, 9 by >300 pts, and 4 by >400 pts

QB: Newton
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Duke, Collins, Ekeler, Barber, Davis,Henderson, Cook (IR), Thompson (IR)
WR: Tyreek, Diggs, Coleman, Lockett, Golladay, Tyrell "i used to be somebody" Williams
TE: ASJ, RSJ, Kittle, Butt (IR)
D: Jags
K: Butker

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby Jason72 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:18 am

Thompson does seem to have cooled off from his early season tear. I have him in one PPR 16 team dynasty league and am still starting him because he produces solid numbers every week. He basically has become the Redskins main offensive weapon with Reed having another injury plagued year and the WRs stinking. The only problem with that is that teams are focusing on him much more now. I would look for him to stay on his current pace of points the rest of the year, but probably not hit his ceiling again this year.

He is undervalued in the sense that other backs in his average points neighborhood would probably fetch much better trade offers, so if you can get him for reasonable, and you need a starter, then Thompson is probably one the best options out there without breaking the bank.

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby sugbear65 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:52 am

Vcize wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:05 pm
joeya2001 wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:04 pm
James McGhee wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:46 am
Where do we value Thompson in picks? I offered a mid 2nd for him and was told it would take at least a 1st. Is he worth a late 1st?
Id say hes not worth that.

unless you think a Darren Sproles is in the making and that's what you would have paid for him.
Well if he's a Darren Sproles that just turned 27 then he is worth far more than a 1st, because Sproles had 6 RB1-RB3 seasons left at that point.

The reality is that in most leagues I think a 2nd would get it done (though it didn't in James' case). Most think a 1st is an overpay but that is kind of my point. People are willing to pay a 1st for Fitzgerald who likely has literally no future as a football player beyond this year, or a 1st for Brady who likely has only a minimal future beyond this year. I think Thompson may very well end up providing as much of a boost the rest of this year as Fitz/Brady will, but with a future (even if it is only as a flex option once Washington reloads on offense) to boot.
I don't think most peoole are going to pay a 1st for Fitz, or for Brady outside of superflex/2QB. I'd say most people wouldn't trade a 1st for them. Maybe if u packaged them together. I also am not paying a 1st for Thompson. Hes been ok, but I'm not blowing a 1st on his caliber of player when I can get better value for it.

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby BigBawseRoss » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:12 am

not very interested in him honestly
team 1:
12 team, 1 pt for 4 catches 1 point for 10 rush attempts
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Rivers , Kizer, Cutler
K Drake, L Miller, Collins,gore,woodhead ,Dixon , rawls, ty mont, Ivory,Brieda
K Allen, Evans, Hopkins, Alshon Larry Fitz,Zay Jones, doctson, Meredith
Ertz Jimmy G


3.01,3.08,4.08.5.08,6.08,7.08

team 2:
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, wr/rb/te, wr/rb/te, k , def
Dak Prescott, Bortles, P Lynch
Fournette, J HowardMixon,D Henry,D Washington, Rawls, McKissic, Breida, Yeldon
ty hill, Hopkins, AlshonD Thomas,Pryor, Arob IR, Snead, C Coleman, M Bryant
Gronk, Ertz CJ Fied
Butker at Kicker
Arizona D
Philly D

(traded away 2018 1,2,3,4,5
traded away 2019 2nd)


team 3 DLF Co-Own dynasty
http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2017/o ... =07&F=0008

team 4 ironborn dynasty (dlf)
https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2017/ ... =07&F=0010

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby Vcize » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:45 pm

Whelp, so much for that. Looked like he was on his way to a big game too.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Lynch, Peterson, Conner, Foreman, Drake, Hightower
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

Team 2 (12 team PPR, TE Premium, q/r/r/w/w/f/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wentz, Luck, Garropolo
RB: Hunt: Ajayi, Thompson, White, Drake, Foreman, Mckissic
WR: OBJ, Cooks, Benjamin, Moncrief, Richardson, Amendola
TE: Fiedorowicz, Davis, Watson, Derby
K: Zeurlein
D: Broncos

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Re: Chris Thompson - Value Buy for the Stretch Run?

Postby Jason3123 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:58 pm

I owned him in a couple leagues where I wasn't contending and couldn't get any 2nd round pick for him. Mostly counters with 4th's or some clam like Ricardo Louis.
10 Team Superflex / 23 Man Salary / 7 Taxi / PPR / 5pt RB 100 yd Bonus
QB - Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins
RB - Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, Peyton Barber, Kenneth Dixon (TS), C.J. Prosise (TS), D'Onta Foreman (TS)
WR - Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Keenan Allen, Demaryius Thomas, Willie Snead
TE - Jimmy Graham, Charles Clay, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Erik Swoope, Maxx Williams (TS)
2018: 1st (top 3) 2019: 4th, 4th


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