Is Landry a Sell high ?

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Goddard » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:28 pm

Sterling Archer wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:43 pm I don't see how people can expect things to get better elsewhere. Nobody else is going to give him this many targets and he's not a talent that just demands targets.

Combine metrics are not the end all, be all for WRs, but just have a glance at this: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jarvis-landry/
Why wouldn't they give him a lot of targets. Whoever signs him is going to sign him because they want him and plan on using him. Like I stated earlier, the targets might decrease a little, but the quality of targets will more likely improve.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Phaded » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:10 pm

You can be a great football player without being an elite athlete. There are plenty of elite athletes who are well below average as a football player.

Bottom line - Landry can ball.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby captain howdy » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:28 pm

I dont know if you all saw this?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... lue-part-i

Especially part 2:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... ue-part-ii

"This table is sorted by descending ALEX, and that column alone really explains why Landry is at a disadvantage in generating efficient plays for his offense. His ALEX is minus-2.7, meaning his average target is thrown 2.7 yards short of the first-down marker. The average ALEX for the other 27 receivers is plus-2.9, or 2.9 yards beyond the first-down marker. You can see that slot receivers tend to have the lowest ALEX, though Golden Tate (minus-1.6) is the only other receiver below minus-1.0. Some of the deep threats such as Sammy Watkins (plus-6.4), DeSean Jackson (plus-6.4), and Mike Evans (plus-6.1) are getting their targets more than 6 yards past the marker. Landry's average target is thrown only 6.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the shortest of any wideout studied.
This makes it easier for Landry to rack up receptions, but it's quite difficult to turn those plays into successful gains, or to generate YAC that exceeds expectations. That's why his YAC+ is rather average here at minus-0.1. While you won't find strong correlation between ALEX and DYAR, there is no denying that the location of Landry's targets is a detriment to his success."



Case in point, he's probably not a #1 WR, but his yards per catch and yards after catch are absolutely related to the Dolphins usage of him.

He is reliable, tough, willing (and good) blocker. He has deceptive athleticism...I see someone posted his playerprofiler..I see that all the time...but the bottom line is he can play in the NFL, and get open against NFL CBs. He can also break tackles and run hard.

I can see him improving on his yards per catch and touchdowns quite easily on a new team. The receptions may go down, it really depends on how much the offense he goes to throws the ball. His targets may not go down at all if he goes somewhere that throws it 500+ plus times and lacks a solid pass catching te option.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Sterling Archer » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:06 pm

Goddard wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:28 pm
Sterling Archer wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:43 pm I don't see how people can expect things to get better elsewhere. Nobody else is going to give him this many targets and he's not a talent that just demands targets.

Combine metrics are not the end all, be all for WRs, but just have a glance at this: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jarvis-landry/
Why wouldn't they give him a lot of targets. Whoever signs him is going to sign him because they want him and plan on using him. Like I stated earlier, the targets might decrease a little, but the quality of targets will more likely improve.
Because he's small and not the least bit athletic? I know we all want to think that our players are going to triumph over adversity. Less targets? They'll do more with them! Another WR signed to compete? My player will have less double teams. But in reality, significantly fewer targets = less production 99% of the time. Landry is not special enough to buck that trend. He's got utility and someone will pay him, but they won't be paying him to get a ton of targets. He'll be there to convert tough 3rd and mid situations.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Goddard » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:14 pm

Sterling Archer wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:06 pm Because he's small and not the least bit athletic? I know we all want to think that our players are going to triumph over adversity. Less targets? They'll do more with them! Another WR signed to compete? My player will have less double teams. But in reality, significantly fewer targets = less production 99% of the time. Landry is not special enough to buck that trend. He's got utility and someone will pay him, but they won't be paying him to get a ton of targets. He'll be there to convert tough 3rd and mid situations.
But isn't this the opposite of that. All he does is produce, and yet every year people find some kind of excuse as to why he won't be able to keep it up. First Parker was going to be the man. Then Carroo was going to replace him. Then Cutler was just going to throw deep balls to Parker all game long. I guess the new one is he'll go to a new team and not get as many targets. We keep trying to come up with reasons as to why Landry won't be successful, and yet he continues to prove the doubters wrong. I'll just wait till next year to have this conversation again and see what the new excuse is going to be.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:22 pm

He’s not even projected to get to 1,000 yards on the season and people are defending him bc all he does is produce? In what world does that make any sense.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Goddard » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:26 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:22 pm He’s not even projected to get to 1,000 yards on the season and people are defending him bc all he does is produce? In what world does that make any sense.
Fantasy points is all I care about. You also conveniently left out the TDs and receptions. And the fact that he's gone over 1,000 yards the past two seasons.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:28 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:22 pm He’s not even projected to get to 1,000 yards on the season and people are defending him bc all he does is produce? In what world does that make any sense.
Probably the world where he's WR7 in fantasy points.
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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:29 pm

skip wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:35 am This is a team with garbage at QB, no running game, no TE, and the only other viable receiver is an inconsistent Parker...and the conclusion being drawn is we should be concerned about Landry? My only concern is if he stays in Miami and they don't fix basically everything else that's wrong with that team.
Regardless of Miami's offensive quality, Landry ALWAYS has the largest role of any skill position player on the team. He's led the team in targets in 4 straight seasons: 112, 166, 131. Miami having a bad year has nothing to do with it. In fact, Landry is still on pace for 245.9 points in PPR. He's currently the WR7 in PPR formats.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:35 pm

Goddard wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:26 pm Fantasy points is all I care about. You also conveniently left out the TDs and receptions. And the fact that he's gone over 1,000 yards the past two seasons.
Exactly. So, should you care that Landry is the most volume-dependent WR in fantasy? It's really bad that it takes a pace of 170+ targets to get 800 yards. I think Miami is the perfect situation for him because they've practically built their offense around his underneath routes on high volume. I'm not so sure that another team will do that.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:43 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:35 pm
Goddard wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:26 pm Fantasy points is all I care about. You also conveniently left out the TDs and receptions. And the fact that he's gone over 1,000 yards the past two seasons.
Exactly. So, should you care that Landry is the most volume-dependent WR in fantasy? It's really bad that it takes a pace of 170+ targets to get 800 yards. I think Miami is the perfect situation for him because they've practically built their offense around his underneath routes on high volume. I'm not so sure that another team will do that.
This is multiple different coaching staffs in Miami, right?

It's not like he's been playing in the same system the whole time, or with the same QB the whole time. Multiple QBs in multiple different systems are trying to get him the ball.

And the crazy low YPR would be more concerning if we didn't have 3 other years of data to go with it. It's his career low, by a lot, on a horrific offense with horrific o-line play. His YPR had trended up every year and was 12.1 last year. I feel fairly confident thinking that the horrific team/line is largely guilty for the huge drop-off in YPR all of the sudden in his age 24 season.
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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:15 pm

Vcize wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:43 pm This is multiple different coaching staffs in Miami, right?

It's not like he's been playing in the same system the whole time, or with the same QB the whole time. Multiple QBs in multiple different systems are trying to get him the ball.

And the crazy low YPR would be more concerning if we didn't have 3 other years of data to go with it. It's his career low, by a lot, on a horrific offense with horrific o-line play. His YPR had trended up every year and was 12.1 last year. I feel fairly confident thinking that the horrific team/line is largely guilty for the huge drop-off in YPR all of the sudden in his age 24 season.
Yards per reception is not what I'm really discussing. I'm discussing yards at the catch. This stat takes away YAC and gives you the amount of yards WR's have where the ball is caught. Landry, has always been one of the worst in the league at this:

2017 - 4.18
2016 - 5.34 (11th worst)
2015 - 5.22 (11th worst)
2014 - 3.51 (2nd worst)

That explains why he's so volume-dependent.

If a team decides they want to use Landry just like Miami does, then you shouldn't care. But, if there's even a noticeable drop in targets, Landry's fantasy production and value is going to plummet.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:20 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:15 pm
Vcize wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:43 pm This is multiple different coaching staffs in Miami, right?

It's not like he's been playing in the same system the whole time, or with the same QB the whole time. Multiple QBs in multiple different systems are trying to get him the ball.

And the crazy low YPR would be more concerning if we didn't have 3 other years of data to go with it. It's his career low, by a lot, on a horrific offense with horrific o-line play. His YPR had trended up every year and was 12.1 last year. I feel fairly confident thinking that the horrific team/line is largely guilty for the huge drop-off in YPR all of the sudden in his age 24 season.
Yards per reception is not what I'm really discussing. I'm discussing yards at the catch. This stat takes away YAC and gives you the amount of yards WR's have where the ball is caught. Landry, has always been one of the worst in the league at this:

2017 - 3.80
2016 - 5.34 (11th worst)
2015 - 5.22 (11th worst)
2014 - 3.51 (2nd worst)

That explains why he's so volume-dependent.

If a team decides they want to use Landry just like Miami does, then you shouldn't care. But, if there's even a noticeable drop in targets, Landry's fantasy production and value is going to plummet.
Sure, but presumably NFL teams have access to this data as well and any team that signs him for good money (which he is probably going to command) is going to plan on using him the same way.

Where do the NE slot receivers rank in stat that going back 5ish years?
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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:45 pm

Vcize wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:20 pm Sure, but presumably NFL teams have access to this data as well and any team that signs him for good money (which he is probably going to command) is going to plan on using him the same way.

Where do the NE slot receivers rank in stat that going back 5ish years?
But, why would they? Landry's a good player, but targeting him at high volume is inefficient and a poor way of moving the ball through the air. The hope would be that he's secretly a big play WR, but the YatC doesn't support it. When you consider that, it makes sense why Miami is willing to move on. He's probably not going to be worth the money he gets in terms of offensive impact.

Edelman:

2016 - 6.13
2015 - 6.02
2014 - 5.67
2013 - 5.30

Not as bad as Landry.

Let's put it like this. In terms of yards at the catch, a lot of the NFL's best WR's rank high each year. For total yards at the catch (avg in parentheses) in 2016:

1. Evans (12.0)
2. Hilton (12.2)
3. Julio (11.88)
4. Jordy (9.45)
5. Antonio (8.46)
6. Beckham (8.41)
7. Pryor (10.62)
8. Cooks (10.28)
9. Sanders (9.78)
10. Crabtree (8.48)

Every NFL WR is volume dependent to some degree, but players who have a high YatC are not as volume dependent.

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Re: Jarvis Landry - Should You Care?

Postby Goddard » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:48 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:35 pm
Goddard wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:26 pm Fantasy points is all I care about. You also conveniently left out the TDs and receptions. And the fact that he's gone over 1,000 yards the past two seasons.
Exactly. So, should you care that Landry is the most volume-dependent WR in fantasy? It's really bad that it takes a pace of 170+ targets to get 800 yards. I think Miami is the perfect situation for him because they've practically built their offense around his underneath routes on high volume. I'm not so sure that another team will do that.
No one knows what another team will or will not do, or even if Landry will go to another team. What we do know for a fact is that Landry has been one of the more consistent fantasy WRs every year, and to assume that he'll all of a sudden become irrelevant or bad seems like a reach.


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