Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

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MEuRaH
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby MEuRaH » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:40 am

Plank, your post should really be its own thread. It's very informational and would help a ton of people out as we hit the stretch.

Thanks for posting it. I wish I could give you an upvote or something.
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby FiremanEd » Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:25 am

MEuRaH wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:40 am Plank, your post should really be its own thread. It's very informational and would help a ton of people out as we hit the stretch.

Thanks for posting it. I wish I could give you an upvote or something.
Agreed. Beats the 'let me list some old guys with notable names' approach, which is obvious even to the most mediocre of fantasy players.

I do feel like Robby Anderson, Ted Ginn, and Rob Woods can be had cheap and provide underrated production. Maclin perhaps? Only Ginn is 'old', and the other 3 can provide some depth looking forward. Not sexy enough for any team to feel they 'must hold' regardless of their standing.

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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby Plank » Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:43 am

Thanks MEuRaH, Sharps site can be a little overwhelming at first, because there is so much to look at, even with Strength of Schedule he provides 30 graphs that work in concert with each other to try to paint a picture ..

Image
So for each metric here you can see a graph for past and future strength of schedule, I use this for weekly match-ups, plus looking ahead but while that list is kind of laid out jumbled you can separate it to give a good view of the pass game and run game ..

ie, the 4 overall metrics:
Total Efficiency (offense, defense, special teams, all efficiency in one number)
Special Teams Eff
Pass Run Ratio OFF (can see at a glance how balanced run vs pass is, if high number like CHI's 32, last in the League in ratio)
Pace OFF

Good view of passing games:
Off EFF vs Def EFF

Pass EFF vs Def EFF
1SKR Pass Success OFF vs 1SKR Pass DEF (1SKR is when the game is within 1 score and -4th qtr, eliminating garbage time)
Pass Pro EFF OFF vs Pass Pro EFF DEF
YPPA Off vs YPPA Def
Explosive Pass OFF vs Explosive Pass DEF
RB Pass EFF OFF vs RB Pass EFF DEF

Then for Rushing:
Rush EFF Off vs Rush EFF Def
1SKR Off vs 1SKR Def
Explosive Rush OFF vs Explosive Rush DEF

Then overall

RZ Blend Off vs RZ Blend Def
YPPT OFF vs YPPT DEF
Third Down Conversion EFF Off vs 3rd DEF

So the graphs I posted earlier you can tailor it to Rushing Rest of Schedule too, to see which teams have the easiest rest of season also .. hope this helps, like I said, the site can be overwhelming, but if you come in with a question, you will certainly leave with an answer once you know where to look for it ..
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby sugbear65 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:44 am

This is going to sound odd, and I hate even bringing it up. Because I'm not a fan of Kickers in general, and I know a lot of leagues are starting to faze them out. However if u still play with them in your league, I would suggest G. Zuerlein. He has been pacing the field, nice strong leg on a good offense that gives him plenty of shots, and a coach that has no prob letting him try 50+ yard kicks whenever in position for it. And what would even the best K cost u, MAYBE a 3rd rounder from the casual fantasy player, if not less. Hard to find another positional advantage that could be as cheap.

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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby Plank » Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:54 am

You can really start by just looking at,

(Select Team) vs Pass EFF DEF
(Select Team) vs Rush EFF DEF

This should be the majority of at a glance for fantasy football use .. the rest of the metrics I feel are more useful for individual match-ups of teams .. like I make my own score card after he posted this:

Image

I was like oooO, pretty, haha

I'm sure this will be added to the site soon, but until then I make my own ..
Last edited by Plank on Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby Plank » Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:07 am

k, last post, for Sharp's site, heh...

This is the target by position

For OFF: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/targ ... -off-.html
For DEF: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/targ ... -def-.html

Example from website, OFF shown:
Image

So the first set of columns shows how much an offense targets the RB, TE, WR in percentage, at the bottom is the NFL avg

2nd Column is the Pass Success rate to those positions and shows the rank of RB, TE, WR

3rd Column is Yards Per Attempt with the rank ..

Then you can look at the DEF of the opponent and compare, how often the DEF is targeted by %, by SR%, and YPA

This very useful tool, if only to get an idea of how much an offense is using their TE, you can see IND at 30% (makes sense right Doyle) .. that's 9% over the NFL avg, KC at 33%, TEN at 32% ... Lowest ARI at 13% ...

Anyway I like this section of the website a lot, I have a column running down the middle of a WR-CB worksheet I have that includes this info ..
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby Plank » Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:13 am

One last thing, the website is Year to Date, he uploads the data each week, and Strength of Schedule is available late Tue night, usually around midnight or so.. but is available to play with on WED morning, you can tell when it has been updated because the past Week score is included on the graph
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby DJB » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:01 am

That's a lot of good data there
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby Tsunami » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:25 am

sugbear65 wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:44 am This is going to sound odd, and I hate even bringing it up. Because I'm not a fan of Kickers in general, and I know a lot of leagues are starting to faze them out. However if u still play with them in your league, I would suggest G. Zuerlein. He has been pacing the field, nice strong leg on a good offense that gives him plenty of shots, and a coach that has no prob letting him try 50+ yard kicks whenever in position for it. And what would even the best K cost u, MAYBE a 3rd rounder from the casual fantasy player, if not less. Hard to find another positional advantage that could be as cheap.
The only kicker keeping up with Zuerlein this season is Jake Elliott. He is on a bye this week, and might be dropped in some leagues. Pick him up, it's worth 3 points per game.

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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby Vcize » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:38 am

sugbear65 wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:44 am This is going to sound odd, and I hate even bringing it up. Because I'm not a fan of Kickers in general, and I know a lot of leagues are starting to faze them out. However if u still play with them in your league, I would suggest G. Zuerlein. He has been pacing the field, nice strong leg on a good offense that gives him plenty of shots, and a coach that has no prob letting him try 50+ yard kicks whenever in position for it. And what would even the best K cost u, MAYBE a 3rd rounder from the casual fantasy player, if not less. Hard to find another positional advantage that could be as cheap.
Top kickers and defenses are GREAT mid/late season buys that are often overlooked, especially in dynasty. People get too caught up in their variability year to year that they neglect to consider that they are paying more for smaller ppg upgrades on 1 year rentals at other positions.

People will give a late 1st to grab someone like Fitzgerald and upgrade their wr2 position by 2ppg for a 6 game rental, but won't give a 3rd to gain 3ppg at kicker or Def for those same 6 games.
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Re: Who are you buying low(ish) for final push?

Postby heydangle » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:29 pm

was able to get Crowell thrown in a deal. He sucks, but he's a buy low.


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