2018 NFL Free Agency...

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby Generic Username » Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:04 am

...and the potential fantasy implications

The in-season moves are now done, so we fantasy players now turn an eye toward the off season and the upcoming free agency signings and rookie draft

Off the top of my head, here's a list of the big names that will be open for shop:

Leveon Bell
Sammy Watkins
Allen Robinson
Alshon Jeffery
Jarvis Landry
Kirk Cousins
Carlos Hyde (right?)
Davante Adams
Donte Moncrief (haha! Added just for Skip's reaction)

Who stays? Who goes and where? Obviously all speculation now, but current team's cap situation vs market value can give a bit of a picture of possible outcome.

I believe Leveon stays, especially if they make a deep playoff run. I also think Alshon stays, that the Eagles keep their current lineup intact. ARob is gone, IMO, and I see CHI and SF as the 2 most likely landing spots. I think Cousins is gone, but the SF connection is mostly removed at this point.

What about lesser names, such as M Lee, JMatt, and Crowell?

Thoughts? Insider info? Specific team(s) news?

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby PingPwng » Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:35 am

AR15 in Chi-town. Idc about anything else this offseason.
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QB:C. Newton/J. Goff
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WR:M. Evans/D. Parker/T. Hill/J. Ross(IR)/C. Godwin/J. Maclin/D. Westbrook/A. Robinson (IR)/O. Beckham (IR)
TE:J. Doyle/H. Henry K - M. Bryant DEF - Detroit

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby skip » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:08 am

I agree on Le'Veon and Jeffery. Pittsburgh will be headed fast in the wrong direction if they let Bell walk. I know the rumors are that he wants stupid money but that isn't happening no matter who he signs with. Ultimately his best option (and that of the Steelers) is for him to stay. I also believe Jeffery is a key cog to the success of the Eagles. His "prove it" deal should yield him a long term contract and considering Philadelphia is a solid bet to go deep into the playoffs, both sides should be viewing a signing as mutually beneficial for longer term success.

I'm not sure what to think about ARob or Watkins. The Jaguars need Robinson more than he needs them. I'm not convinced that this season's sudden success lasts for the long term. I expect him to leave for the most money he can get. I think Watkins may leave the Rams but it won't be all about the money. Goff's inconsistencies are going to make his production similarly so and that's not going to change even though he's the best receiver on that team. He would be better off going somewhere else.

I expect Landry to leave but only because the Dolphins were trying to trade him. Huge loss for them.

Cousins will probably be gone but I'm going to stress the word probably. The commonplace thinking out there seems to be that the Redskins are not committed to him for the long term but I am not sure that's accurate. The reports that came out just prior to the start of the year seemed to indicate that the issue the entire time with working a long term deal was with Cousins. I think this was a battle more about guaranteed money and NFL contracts in general. I suspect Washington will continue to make plenty of overtures in an effort to keep him. Ultimately I would expect him to go somewhere else (not the 49ers) where someone offers him more guarantees. Here are my 4 most likely landing spots (in order): NY Giants, Jacksonville, Cleveland, NY Jets. Maybe some will be surprised at the suggestion of the Giants but it seems very plausible to me that they try to unload Eli this off season. It may be more likely they grab a rookie seeing as they will have a top 5 draft pick, but they've seen plenty of Cousins the last couple of years and he may be looking to sign in division to try to "stick it" to the Redskins.

Hyde will stay in San Francisco. It's his best shot at keeping a starting job.

Davante Adams will be gone. I don't think he's a priority for the Packers who have $8-$9 million tied up in both Nelson and Cobb for next year.

Generally the WR market is thin enough that guys like Moncrief get overpaid. He'll end up on some random team, we'll see a couple dozen threads about him over the off season about his value, and he'll be pretty much irrelevant by 2019.
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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby failblazer » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:20 pm

skip wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:08 am
Generally the WR market is thin enough that guys like Moncrief get overpaid. He'll end up on some random team, we'll see a couple dozen threads about him over the off season about his value, and he'll be pretty much irrelevant by 2019.
I don't know why but I just have a feeling he'll end up a Raven.
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R. Gronkowski, R. Griffin
S. Gostkowski

C. Heyward, B. Graham
D. Lee, B. McKinney, C. Mosely, B. Marshall
E. Weddle, J. Bethel

16 Team PPR (4th Year Dynasty)
A. Luck, K. Cousins
L. Bell, E. Elliott, M. Forte, D. Williams (PIT), R. Burkhead, Z. Zenner
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C. Santos

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J. Collins, E. Kendricks, C. Mosely, R. Wilson, D. Harris, E. Jackson, P. Dawson, M. Te'o IR
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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby IBall2 » Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:03 pm

Why wouldn't Jacksonville franchise tag Robinson? I've seen a lot of people saying they want him to go to Chicago, but is that actually better than where he is right now? Trubisky can't be trusted with his 20 passing attempts per game anymore than Bortles (or whoever the jags have next year).

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:18 pm

IBall2 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:03 pm
Why wouldn't Jacksonville franchise tag Robinson? I've seen a lot of people saying they want him to go to Chicago, but is that actually better than where he is right now? Trubisky can't be trusted with his 20 passing attempts per game anymore than Bortles (or whoever the jags have next year).
Chicken and the egg. Trubisky would throw more if his receivers weren't Tre McBride, Dontrelle Inman, Tanner Gentry, and Dion Sims.
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers [IR]
RB: LeSean McCoy, Samaje Perine, Rex Burkhead, Jerick McKinnon, Doug Martin, T.J. Yeldon
WR: Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, Jordy Nelson, Cooper Kupp, Emmanuel Sanders
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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:21 pm

Jimmy Garrapolo
T1
LUCK, Flacco, McCown
ZEKE, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, D Williams, Andre E, R Smith
DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN/WATKINS, AROB, C Davis, Sanu, Wallace, Inman, Adam H, Marshall, Dorsett, Hansen, Rudolph
GRONK, Ben W, Shaheen, Maxx, RSJ, Sims
-
DL: JORDAN/FLOWERS/HUGHES, Addison, Short, Okafor, Malik J
LB: E KENDRICKS, VIGIL, GOODSON, Schobert, Zach C, Morrison, Simon, James, Freeman, Patrick O, Nick K
DB: ADDAE, AMOS, POYER, Farley, Maye, Heath, Simmons, John J

T2
COUSINS, Rivers, Mariota
GORDON/GURLEY/MIXON, Ajayi, Gore, D Williams, Forte, Dayes, J Davis
AJG/DIGGS/CRABS, Dez, Parker, JuJu, Crowder, Hogan, M Bryant, JMatt, Wallace, Zay, Pryor, Ellington, Torrey, R Shepard, Rudolph
ENGRAM, Doyle, Ben W, Higbee, Swoope, Vance
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Wilkerson, Hughes, Wolfe, Autry, Longacre, Ogbah, Okafor, Henry A
LB: HUMBER/WRIGHT/KIKO/SIMON, Goodson, Klein, Ford, Judon, Coyle, Spaight, Burgess
DB: CHURCH/ADDAE/POYER, Farley, Simmons, Tavon, Phillips, John J, Kindred, Colbert

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby skip » Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:34 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:18 pm
IBall2 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:03 pm
Why wouldn't Jacksonville franchise tag Robinson? I've seen a lot of people saying they want him to go to Chicago, but is that actually better than where he is right now? Trubisky can't be trusted with his 20 passing attempts per game anymore than Bortles (or whoever the jags have next year).
Chicken and the egg. Trubisky would throw more if his receivers weren't Tre McBride, Dontrelle Inman, Tanner Gentry, and Dion Sims.
I wouldn't even call it a "chicken and the egg". We know Trubisky has the skills but the offense is being deliberately run without him throwing the football because there is no one down field that can catch it.
When the ignorant are out of arguments they fall back on name calling, vulgarity, and threats.

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby Shcritters » Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:33 pm

I've always found success in loading up my roster at the end of the year with people who are either about to become free agents or are the backups to free agents and then trading them at their peak value (usually before the season starts or right after they flash). Recent success stories include JStew, Langford, Kendall Wright, and LMurray. This year it is going to be interesting with ARob (already discussed), Watkins (already discussed), but the one I am also interested in is Paul Richardson from Seattle. They have a crowded WR corps and I doubt they re-sign him. He is doing well with a small volume of targets - even if they are 'high quality' targets in that they are usually deep throws with a high chance of scoring a TD - so it will be interesting to see where he lands. Doubt he is a WR1, but he could be a solid WR2 somewhere else where there isn't so many mouths to feed (Baldwin, Lockett, Richardson, Graham, etc).

And, as already discussed, Moncrief. He probably gets re-signed, and if he does then I'll probably drop him (I snagged him off the WW for the purpose of him potentially changing teams this next year), but maybe a change of scenery is what he needs.
Luck Dynasty
12 team PPR Contract/Salary league. 1 pt/10 yds rushing/receiving. 1 pt/25 yds passing. All TD's worth 6 pts. 20% contract increase YOY. 2-rd rookie draft with contracts assigned based on $7 minus rd drafted in NFL rookie draft for 1st round, $3 minus rd drafted in NFL rookie draft for 2nd round. $294 cap limit. Starting lineup is QB, RB, RB/WR, 2 WR, WR/TE, plus IDP's (2 LB, 2 CB/S, 2 DL).

Cap Space: $18
QB: Luck ($45 through 2017), Rivers ($17 through 2018), Smith ($5 through 2017)
RB: McCoy ($68 through 2017), Gordon ($9 through 2019), Gurley ($10 through 2020), Mixon ($6 through 2023), Foreman ($1 through 2023), DJohnson ($1 through 2023)
WR: Julio ($63 through 2019), Diggs ($1 through 2021), Cooper ($9 through 2021), Watkins ($10 through 2020), MWilliams ($6 through 2022), Richardson ($1 through 2023), Tread ($7 through 2022)
IR: Enunwa ($1 through 2021), ARob ($2 through 2018)
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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:39 pm

Shcritters wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:33 pm
but the one I am also interested in is Paul Richardson from Seattle. They have a crowded WR corps and I doubt they re-sign him. He is doing well with a small volume of targets - even if they are 'high quality' targets in that they are usually deep throws with a high chance of scoring a TD - so it will be interesting to see where he lands. Doubt he is a WR1, but he could be a solid WR2 somewhere else where there isn't so many mouths to feed (Baldwin, Lockett, Richardson, Graham, etc).
Richardson is a guy I've been holding for this reason as well. Mainly because he reminds me a LOT of Marvin Jones who had quite a bit of value after he signed with Detroit, and then a LOT of value after he started with a big game there.

Jones' last season in Cinci he finished with 65-816-4. Richardson is currently on pace to finish with 50-930-10. While I doubt he hits double digit TDs he should finish with around 7-8. Jones was pulling in late 1st round draft pick value after he signed with Detroit (before playing). If Richardson lands in a decent spot he will probably command the same even though he can probably be had for a late 2nd or even early 3rd right now, although he was admittedly much cheaper before his big game (I've been holding all year in most of my leagues).

Jeremy Hill is another good flier that's super cheap right now. Past history of success that could potentially compete for a starting job behind a better line next year. Not all that different than guys like Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, or even Marshawn Lynch in a pie in the sky best case scenario.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Lynch, Peterson, Conner, Foreman, Drake, Hightower
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

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QB: Wentz, Luck, Garropolo
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WR: OBJ, Cooks, Benjamin, Moncrief, Richardson, Amendola
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K: Zeurlein
D: Broncos

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby cweds » Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:59 pm

Personally, I think the Packers re-sign Adams. I'm not sure what the cap situation is like for next season but he's proven to be a weapon that AR trusts and you don't let that walk away during the compete window. Especially with Cobb and Nelson both free agents following the 2018 season
Team 1 (2nd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Collins, Carson, McGuire, Lacy, J. Richard, Jamal Williams
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, Taywan Taylor, C. Henderson, Mitchell
TE: Kittle, Ebron, Fleener, J. Smith, Shaheen
2018: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Team 2 (1st season):
12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky, Kizer
RB: David Johnson, Carson, De. Washington, Conner, Dixon, Lacy, Jon. Williams
WR: Allen, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, JJSS, Doctson, Treadwell, Godwin, Henderson, C. Williams, Allison
TE: Kelce, Njoku, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
2018: 1.03, 1.04, Late 1st, 3rd, 5th

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:46 pm

Generic Username wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:04 am
...and the potential fantasy implications

The in-season moves are now done, so we fantasy players now turn an eye toward the off season and the upcoming free agency signings and rookie draft

Off the top of my head, here's a list of the big names that will be open for shop:

Leveon Bell
Sammy Watkins
Allen Robinson
Alshon Jeffery
Jarvis Landry
Kirk Cousins
Carlos Hyde (right?)
Davante Adams
Donte Moncrief (haha! Added just for Skip's reaction)

Who stays? Who goes and where? Obviously all speculation now, but current team's cap situation vs market value can give a bit of a picture of possible outcome.

I believe Leveon stays, especially if they make a deep playoff run. I also think Alshon stays, that the Eagles keep their current lineup intact. ARob is gone, IMO, and I see CHI and SF as the 2 most likely landing spots. I think Cousins is gone, but the SF connection is mostly removed at this point.

What about lesser names, such as M Lee, JMatt, and Crowell?

Thoughts? Insider info? Specific team(s) news?

Just taking some shots on where these guys will end up, just for fun.

Bell: I think he’ll stay in Pitt, he’s too good and with Big Ben possibly winding down, they might need to lean on the running game even more.

AROB: This is probably the one that I’m most excited to see where he ends up. I’m in the camp that thinks he will sign elsewhere, I know the Jags have tons of cap space but I have a feeling that Coughlin/Marrone would keep a guy like Marquise Lee, who will be cheaper over a guy like AROB. I think a team like Chicago, which has been mentioned several times makes a lot of sense and he would be heavily targeted there.

Cousins: I also can’t wait to see where he ends up. Maybe it’s wishful thinking because I’m a Cowboys fan, but I hope/think there’s a pretty good chance he leaves D.C. I think he’s a top 12 QB and some team is going to make him a big offer. I could see the Jags making a big offer with all of the cap space that they have and they need to replace Bortles, imo.

Davante Adams: I think the Packers will definitely keep him. Jordy’s career is winding down and Adams has talent to be a #1 WR, imo.

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:54 am

skip wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:08 am
I agree on Le'Veon and Jeffery. Pittsburgh will be headed fast in the wrong direction if they let Bell walk. I know the rumors are that he wants stupid money but that isn't happening no matter who he signs with. Ultimately his best option (and that of the Steelers) is for him to stay. I also believe Jeffery is a key cog to the success of the Eagles. His "prove it" deal should yield him a long term contract and considering Philadelphia is a solid bet to go deep into the playoffs, both sides should be viewing a signing as mutually beneficial for longer term success.

I'm not sure what to think about ARob or Watkins. The Jaguars need Robinson more than he needs them. I'm not convinced that this season's sudden success lasts for the long term. I expect him to leave for the most money he can get. I think Watkins may leave the Rams but it won't be all about the money. Goff's inconsistencies are going to make his production similarly so and that's not going to change even though he's the best receiver on that team. He would be better off going somewhere else.

I expect Landry to leave but only because the Dolphins were trying to trade him. Huge loss for them.

Cousins will probably be gone but I'm going to stress the word probably. The commonplace thinking out there seems to be that the Redskins are not committed to him for the long term but I am not sure that's accurate. The reports that came out just prior to the start of the year seemed to indicate that the issue the entire time with working a long term deal was with Cousins. I think this was a battle more about guaranteed money and NFL contracts in general. I suspect Washington will continue to make plenty of overtures in an effort to keep him. Ultimately I would expect him to go somewhere else (not the 49ers) where someone offers him more guarantees. Here are my 4 most likely landing spots (in order): NY Giants, Jacksonville, Cleveland, NY Jets. Maybe some will be surprised at the suggestion of the Giants but it seems very plausible to me that they try to unload Eli this off season. It may be more likely they grab a rookie seeing as they will have a top 5 draft pick, but they've seen plenty of Cousins the last couple of years and he may be looking to sign in division to try to "stick it" to the Redskins.

Hyde will stay in San Francisco. It's his best shot at keeping a starting job.

Davante Adams will be gone. I don't think he's a priority for the Packers who have $8-$9 million tied up in both Nelson and Cobb for next year.

Generally the WR market is thin enough that guys like Moncrief get overpaid. He'll end up on some random team, we'll see a couple dozen threads about him over the off season about his value, and he'll be pretty much irrelevant by 2019.
I could see Jacksonville, Cleveland and the Jets but I just don't think the Giants have enough money, per spotrac the Giants are projected to have 20.4 million in cap space after this season. Like you said they could try and move Eli but considering the Giants can drop him after the 2018 season at a reduced cap hit and that he's going to be 37 in a couple months I highly doubt it, especially given what he's done for them as a franchise. If they can't/don't move Eli then there's no way they'd be able to sign Cousins, Mike Glennon just got paid 15 million a year to be a backup in Chicago, the Giants wouldn't be able to afford that contract, let alone what Cousins would want.

Jacksonville is also out for me, they're projected for -1.2 mil in cap space, there's absolutely no room in that budget to sign a QB and Bortles has played well enough in their new run-first offense that I think they'll just hang onto him at least through next year.

If we're talking surprising landing spots for Cousins then sign me up for Indy. Projected to have the most cap space in the NFL next year with 66.5 million and with all the talk surrounding Luck and his shoulder they might try and trade him away to a team like the Browns for a bucket of draft picks then bring in Cousins.
12 Team .5 PPR, .2 PPCarry, TE 1PPR, 6 pt passing TDs, -3.5 per Int, 1pt/20 Return Yds
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QBs: Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater
RBs: David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley, De'Angelo Henderson, Mike Gillislee, James Conner, Austin Ekeler
WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp, Rashard Higgins
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith
DSTs: Cardinals

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:01 pm

Cousins will be the most interesting free agent. It's rare for a QB as good as him to make it to unrestricted free agency in the prime of his career. StableofRB's made some good points in regards to his potential suitors. Right now, I see it as:

Washington
Cleveland
New York Jets
Arizona
Denver

Denver and Arizona will have to free up more cap room. Garoppolo's trade really screwed up Cousins outlook. San Francisco had enough money to bring in Cousins and some weapons.

I can't even begin to predict the WR's right now. It's a loaded crop and there are so many ways it can shake out. Even teams who you wouldn't expect to have interest in a WR might be interested.

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Re: 2018 NFL Free Agency...

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:05 pm

skip wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:08 am
I agree on Le'Veon and Jeffery. Pittsburgh will be headed fast in the wrong direction if they let Bell walk. I know the rumors are that he wants stupid money but that isn't happening no matter who he signs with. Ultimately his best option (and that of the Steelers) is for him to stay. I also believe Jeffery is a key cog to the success of the Eagles. His "prove it" deal should yield him a long term contract and considering Philadelphia is a solid bet to go deep into the playoffs, both sides should be viewing a signing as mutually beneficial for longer term success.

I'm not sure what to think about ARob or Watkins. The Jaguars need Robinson more than he needs them. I'm not convinced that this season's sudden success lasts for the long term. I expect him to leave for the most money he can get. I think Watkins may leave the Rams but it won't be all about the money. Goff's inconsistencies are going to make his production similarly so and that's not going to change even though he's the best receiver on that team. He would be better off going somewhere else.

I expect Landry to leave but only because the Dolphins were trying to trade him. Huge loss for them.

Cousins will probably be gone but I'm going to stress the word probably. The commonplace thinking out there seems to be that the Redskins are not committed to him for the long term but I am not sure that's accurate. The reports that came out just prior to the start of the year seemed to indicate that the issue the entire time with working a long term deal was with Cousins. I think this was a battle more about guaranteed money and NFL contracts in general. I suspect Washington will continue to make plenty of overtures in an effort to keep him. Ultimately I would expect him to go somewhere else (not the 49ers) where someone offers him more guarantees. Here are my 4 most likely landing spots (in order): NY Giants, Jacksonville, Cleveland, NY Jets. Maybe some will be surprised at the suggestion of the Giants but it seems very plausible to me that they try to unload Eli this off season. It may be more likely they grab a rookie seeing as they will have a top 5 draft pick, but they've seen plenty of Cousins the last couple of years and he may be looking to sign in division to try to "stick it" to the Redskins.

Hyde will stay in San Francisco. It's his best shot at keeping a starting job.

Davante Adams will be gone. I don't think he's a priority for the Packers who have $8-$9 million tied up in both Nelson and Cobb for next year.

Generally the WR market is thin enough that guys like Moncrief get overpaid. He'll end up on some random team, we'll see a couple dozen threads about him over the off season about his value, and he'll be pretty much irrelevant by 2019.
Hyde is a goner. San Francisco is phasing out veteran pieces from the last regime.

I think Adams stays unless a team makes a ridiculous offer. Ted Thompson usually does not let good receivers walk after their rookie deal. Adams has outproduced Cobb the last couple of seasons and he's younger. Green Bay can actually save $9M if they cut Cobb in the offseason. It will be the final year of his contract.


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