Too early 2018 rookie draft mock

[Cameron Giles]

The draft is the cheapest a good RB will ever be. Sure you will miss from time to time, but you gotta take the risk. Similar to drafting QB's in real life. Draft day is the cheapest a top 10 QB will ever be.

Time to time is an understatement. You're more likely to completely wipeout on RB's than not. They are more likely to produce quickly, but they're also more likely to have abbreviated success.

WR's are still the safer play, but this class in particular is not strong on WR's.

[brooklynkid]

Great points made in this thread by Nathanq42 Kclep20 and TennisBuck Now everything depends on team makeup and if your trying to win. In many leagues it's harder to trade for RB's then WR's and that inflates Rb's trade value. So i kind of understand if someone stock pile on Rb's in the draft and if they hit they can maybe trade them. For example this past off-season i had the 1.07 in a league and my RB situation was terrible so i traded the 1.07 for Tevin Coleman which i don't think was too bad but then i traded my 2018 1st for TY Mont which now i think was a mistake. So stockpiling on RB's in draft doesn't sound too bad and their easily tradable.

[kamihamster]

I buy WRs and draft RBs because I don't want to hold a WR waiting for them to breakout (like Lee or Agholor). With RBs you know pretty quickly what you've got (Perine vs Hunt). Plus it is harder to buy high RB2s or higher, than it is to buy mid WR2s or higher (at least in my experience) I'm taking best RB available in the mid second. Who it will be, depends on the second half of college season, who declares, who is available, and if there is a super value WR like if I can get christian kirk there or something.

This has become my strategy on a rebuilding team. Of course BPA rules all, but in rounds 3 onward, I'll hoard RBs. I haven't gotten to the point where I need to buy a WR yet, but this past year I drafted: Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Foreman, Conner, and Breida. With Cook and Kamara being hits, I have a core RB group started. If Mixon can get it going, then I have my Flex spot filled, and if Foreman, Conner, or Breida can become a starter, then I'll start flipping them for 1st or WRs. I think you just gotta buy the quick ROIs in rookie drafts (RBs), and cash them out for long term, proven WRs when you get the chance.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I always draft RB. WR seems to come cheap once they don't produce in the first 1.5. People don't get they take time to develop.

That's a very recent development. The RBs have just been better the last few years. Before that it was the exact opposite.

Right. If your motto is "draft a RB no matter what" you could have gotten Hunt or you could have gotten a turd in Perine. You would have been drafting Yeldon, Abdullah, Duke Johnson over WR's and Qb's that were better than them. Maybe even gotten a share of the almighty David Cobb. It just so happens that this was the best RB draft class in nearly 10 years and the WR's coming out the past couple of years have been subpar. It's not always like this.

[KCLep20]

The draft is the cheapest a good RB will ever be. Sure you will miss from time to time, but you gotta take the risk. Similar to drafting QB's in real life. Draft day is the cheapest a top 10 QB will ever be.

Time to time is an understatement. You're more likely to completely wipeout on RB's than not. They are more likely to produce quickly, but they're also more likely to have abbreviated success.

WR's are still the safer play, but this class in particular is not strong on WR's.

I can point to just as many WR flops as you can RB flops. They are both risky, but having a top 10 RB is like gold in my league, which is why the draft is the cheapest place to grab them. I'm not saying you should ignore WR's, I purposely built my team by getting AJG/Julio and then lucked in to DT, so I could spend the rest of my time swinging and missing on RB's because my WR's were already locked up. That isn't always the case, and you shouldn't pass up the top WR's in order to take a flier RB.

[Phaded]

I always draft RB. WR seems to come cheap once they don't produce in the first 1.5. People don't get they take time to develop.

That's a very recent development. The RBs have just been better the last few years. Before that it was the exact opposite.

Right. If your motto is "draft a RB no matter what" you could have gotten Hunt or you could have gotten a turd in Perine. You would have been drafting Yeldon, Abdullah, Duke Johnson over WR's and Qb's that were better than them. Maybe even gotten a share of the almighty David Cobb. It just so happens that this was the best RB draft class in nearly 10 years and the WR's coming out the past couple of years have been subpar. It's not always like this.

Seeing "David Cobb" mentioned brings back painful memories.

[Cameron Giles]

I can point to just as many WR flops as you can RB flops. They are both risky, but having a top 10 RB is like gold in my league, which is why the draft is the cheapest place to grab them. I'm not saying you should ignore WR's, I purposely built my team by getting AJG/Julio and then lucked in to DT, so I could spend the rest of my time swinging and missing on RB's because my WR's were already locked up. That isn't always the case, and you shouldn't pass up the top WR's in order to take a flier RB.

Of course there are plenty of WR busts, but WR's generally produce longer and are safer investments. RB's are considered league winners, but you have to kiss a ton of frogs to get that RB. Chasing RB's is a long game of hot potato: Players get hot for a few games, gain value and then fall off a cliff. Once upon a time, C.J. Spiller and Doug Martin were Top-5 startup picks. Plus, injuries are much more likely and then backup RB's gain value and become league winners.

You have to be much more calculated when investing in RB's. With WR's, that's not as much of the case.

[bsp27]

I can point to just as many WR flops as you can RB flops. They are both risky, but having a top 10 RB is like gold in my league, which is why the draft is the cheapest place to grab them. I'm not saying you should ignore WR's, I purposely built my team by getting AJG/Julio and then lucked in to DT, so I could spend the rest of my time swinging and missing on RB's because my WR's were already locked up. That isn't always the case, and you shouldn't pass up the top WR's in order to take a flier RB.

Of course there are plenty of WR busts, but WR's generally produce longer and are safer investments. RB's are considered league winners, but you have to kiss a ton of frogs to get that RB. Chasing RB's is a long game of hot potato: Players get hot for a few games, gain value and then fall off a cliff. Once upon a time, C.J. Spiller and Doug Martin were Top-5 startup picks. Plus, injuries are much more likely and then backup RB's gain value and become league winners.

You have to be much more calculated when investing in RB's. With WR's, that's not as much of the case.

that's exactly why you invest in rookie rb's and proven wr's

[DJB]

Barkley
Guice
Chubb

Consensus top 3 Rb?

[Friction]

I definitely would not say that is t he consensus top 3. Probably the top 3 known names, but I think it will look different before and after the draft. I don't think Barkley will budge no matter the scenario, but Chubb will be a volatile player as far as projections go.

[bigchiefbc]

Barkley
Guice
Chubb

Consensus top 3 Rb?

Not for me. Barkley and Guice are definitely top 2, but I have Ronald Jones definitely above Chubb, and Bryce Love is pushing his way up there too. Also watch out for Wadley from Iowa, he's a bit under the radar, but I'm buying if he declares.

[IBall2]

Barkley
Guice
Chubb

Consensus top 3 Rb?

Not for me. Barkley and Guice are definitely top 2, but I have Ronald Jones definitely above Chubb, and Bryce Love is pushing his way up there too. Also watch out for Wadley from Iowa, he's a bit under the radar, but I'm buying if he declares.

I liked Wadley more last year than this year when he was the #2 RB for Iowa. He shared the backfield last year with LeShun Daniels that had a similar skill set as Wadley. This year James Butler transferred to Iowa and has been doing a lot of the between the tackles work while Wadley has been more of a pass catching back but still gets work up the middle. Defenses can plan for each RB a lot easier this year than they could last year when Wadley was churning out better numbers across the board. Wadley is very small for an RB but has shown well on the field against big 10 defenses. I personally think his workout numbers will make or break his draft stock.

[ImaRounder]

Barkley
Guice
Chubb

Consensus top 3 Rb?

Not for me. Barkley and Guice are definitely top 2, but I have Ronald Jones definitely above Chubb, and Bryce Love is pushing his way up there too. Also watch out for Wadley from Iowa, he's a bit under the radar, but I'm buying if he declares.

I think Ronald jones is good, but I like chubb's size and style better than ronnies.

[Generic Username]

I'm aiming for Chubb just for the fun to be had with teams names once on the squad

[Vcize]

The draft is the cheapest a good RB will ever be. Sure you will miss from time to time, but you gotta take the risk. Similar to drafting QB's in real life. Draft day is the cheapest a top 10 QB will ever be.

Bingo.

Any time I post my team in trade advice threads or whatever, people always ask "how the heck did you get Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, AND Leonard Fournette, are you playing with children". The answer is always the same..."Uh, I drafted them".

Which was also the same answer years ago when I had Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson, and Clinton Portis on the same team (still have Peterson and Lynch!).

I've been paying a premium for early rookie picks (and random rookie picks that I thought might end up early) for 15 years now. And sure I've drafted my fair share of Cedric Benson's and Reggie Bush's, but as a whole it's left me so far in the black that it would take me 10 straight busts just to fall back down to breaking even.

It used to be a lot easier because people used to undervalue youth a lot (whereas now they tend overvalue it), but it's still paid off great lately as well.

People love to rave about WRs having these uber-long careers but most of the time they get tired of them after 3-4 years when they're not the shiny new toy anymore and sell them on the cheap anyway. Years ago I sold Dez for a package that included an early pick that ended up being Le'Veon Bell. That alone netted me enough value that I could miss on my next 3 picks and still be way ahead. Then this offseason in that same league I sold Evans for that same Dez along with the 1.03 that turned into Fournette (after giving a 2nd to move up to 1.02). A few years from now when Evans is 27-28 I'll probably be able to pick him back up for cheap too even though he'll still have a good number of years left at that point.