How much luck is involved with fantasy football?

[moneyballer]

Mark:

I don't want to hear any griping over luck after your Anquan Boldin game yesterday. Whewn Boldin outscores Ray Rice I pretty much know I'm toast. The, in my other league, I get the extreme joy of going against Dustin Keller.

You didn't lose that game yet Scott even with Boldin blowing up... Honestly though I think we should expect Boldin to blow up a few games a season, he has put up great numbers in his career and is the fastest WR ever to achieve 600 receptions. I actually lost one of my other $ leagues going against Boldin...

I can accept that more than I can getting lit up by Collie (41) and Keller (28) while I get 6 and 10 points out of Colston and AJ...

I agree with what some have said though, all you can do is put your best team forward and hope it all balances out at the end.

No, you're right that at least Boldin is a more established, talented player. I think the shock comes from 140 some yards and three TDs. What's wrong with 100 yards and a TD even? Technically, I do have a chance to win but it's gonna be difficult with you having Finley and Brandon Jackson against my Greg Jennings. The more depressing one was Dustin Keller going against me in Grid3. In all honesty, I've been lamenting the luck in fantasy football to Dan for the past couple months or so. Especially with having two teams and having lost Hardesty, Grant, Michael Bush (technically back, but injured just long enough for McFadden to snake the job), then throw in a college draft where we draft players while still in college and watch an underperforming Spiller being sparingly used, Jonathan Dwyer, Arrelious Benn, etc, etc. Like Dan says, I just need to look at it as more fun. I just feel like I'm in one of those ruts I can't dig out of.

[-THE DUDE-]

im in 2 leagues right now. IM about to go 0-6 and by FAR have had the most points scored against me in both leagues.

my main league just lost to the worst team in the league this week...team is in sig.

[MonkeyOne]

I think, like Poker, you can use your judgement to help reduce the luck, but there's still luck involved. How much I think varies depending on whether I've had a good or bad week. Much of the time in dynasty I'm bemoaning my incorrect judgements on players rather than injuries or other luck related issues, but sometimes you get into a playoff game that just, no matter how good you think your team is, just throws you a curve ball.

[Scorp]

Sometimes a simple thing like instinct also plays a factor, like when Reggie Bush, and Ryan Grant go down, how does it affect the other players on the offense? Lance Moore, and Colston more production, A.Rodgers/ J.Finley more production and stuff.

[stingray_76]

all i know is i'm currently in the top 3 for scoring with a 1-2 record while another team is in the bottom 3 with a 3-0 start.
take that for what it's worth.......

[yumbo]

All you can do is put together quality teams, work the waiver wire, make quality trades and get in the playoffs.

I don't know if you can put a percentage on it, but this is about all you can do.

Any player can get hurt. And player can blow up or disappear on any given week. You can hit the perfect schedule or a horrible one as you face other teams in your league. There is simply no predicting what will happen, no matter what teams look like on paper. A coach can change their tune on a guy without notice and suddenly you could have a very valuable player on your roster - or a total dud.

There isn't a single bit of this within our control. Its a lot like poker. You can have all of the skills and ability to succeed, but sometimes the cards just aren't your friend.

I absolutely agree with you, Skip. You just never know who will break out,who will be a dud, who will get hurt or what hot team they are facing that particular week that may slow down a fantasy stud.

I will take the "60-40"luck premise one step further. You could have all the players on your team to win,but, if you don't pick the RIGHT player to put in your line-up at the RIGHT time, you could lose every week. I know it's not the best thing to bench your studs, but sometimes you miss out on Peyton Hillis' great game sunday, or A Fosters great week in the opener (like I did).
You may have the fantasy smarts to have all these players on your roster, but, if you don't use them at the right time...you're toast!

[Biggcmo]

I needed a flex player due to Jerome harrisson being out...I was deciding between james jones and Roy Williams(all my other rbs are back ups) At the last min I decided to put in roy williams and hope 4 the best. Turns out he has the game of his career!! Was that skill on my part in knowing he was going to bust out for a game like that?? I dont think it was. I jus happen to play him at the right time

[yumbo]

I needed a flex player due to Jerome harrisson being out...I was deciding between james jones and Roy Williams(all my other rbs are back ups) At the last min I decided to put in roy williams and hope 4 the best. Turns out he has the game of his career!! Was that skill on my part in knowing he was going to bust out for a game like that?? I dont think it was. I jus happen to play him at the right time

That was a nice call, my friend!

[princevincexoxo]

I needed a flex player due to Jerome harrisson being out...I was deciding between james jones and Roy Williams(all my other rbs are back ups) At the last min I decided to put in roy williams and hope 4 the best. Turns out he has the game of his career!! Was that skill on my part in knowing he was going to bust out for a game like that?? I dont think it was. I jus happen to play him at the right time

That was a nice call, my friend!

Thats the point though..some people might have actually saw that as a tough decision...some on the other hand (myself) in that situation wouldnt have even blinked at it. As terrible as Williams has been he is better than Jones ever was and ever will be...So while in your case that decision may have been "lucky" based on your expectations, to others it may have been less lucky based on intuition and odds...

[Guppy CEO]

i go with 25% team building, 25% managing throughout the season, and 50% pure luck. the worst part about FF is that you have no ability at all to contain your opponent. i've seen far too many teams with the 2nd or 3rd high score of the week lose. in my league, the 4th highest scoring team is 0-3 and hasnt been close to winning. his opponents are scoring a staggering 164 pts a game when the league average is around 120. meanwhile a team whose all play record is 10-23 is currently 2-1. i did one of those season predictors based on my roster and was given a 96% probablity of making the playoffs, yet i'm struggling just to get 2 Rbs healthy enough to play right now.

[49ersFaithful80]

just like everything else in life, luck plays a very large role.

[RobertBobson]

I think luck is playing a bigger role in Fantasy Football than ever. Unless you're playing with guppies, your knowledge isn't going to give you that big of an advantage over your opponents. We all have the same wealth of information at our fingertips.

Yeah, there are a couple things here I want to address. I think the poker analogy is an excellent one. Like poker, the short term results of fantasy football ( IE one game and even one season) are extremely luck based. Say you are a 60-40 favorite over your opponent ( which is a significant advantage), you're still going to lose 40 percent of the time. And with normal variance you can lose several 60-40's in a row. Losing two 60-40's in a row will happen 16% of the time, and 3 in a row 6% of the time, and when you're playing lots of leagues that will come up more than you think it should. Over the long run, over many leagues, and years in your league, your skill and decision making will have a chance to flourish, and who are the elite managers in your leagues and who are the dogs will become apparent.

The bigger the gap in skill between you and your opponents, obviously the more your skill as a manager will matter. When you're playing against players who draft early kickers and overvalue old "name players, you can beat up people easily. But when you're playing against skilled opponents, who research, who work waivers, who keep informed, the smaller and smaller your edge becomes, and the more and more work for less return you have to do. When you're in a league of "expert" fantasy players, the edges you can get are marginal (if existent at all), and things like player injuries (which is almost entirely luck based) figure much more into the results of any one year than the gap between manager's skill. I think most managers overrate their own skill as a manager, and overrate how much that skill difference matters by a great deal.

[BradyT]

There´s always a good portion of luck involved, but good management can reduce this as a factor. still sometimes its really frustrating...

for example if you´re going 0-3 with a team like this caause almost your whole team is underperforming and you seeming to always go against the weekly highscoring team..

QB: Palmer,Kolb
RB: Ray Rice, J.Stewart, M.Bush, M.Lynch
WR: AJ, Calvin, B.Marshall, VJax, J.Knox, M.Manningham,Jacoby..
TE: Finnley, Winslow

[Euclid]

I think we touched on this topic awhile back but after the bad luck I've had recently I thought I would bring it up again. Is anyone else consistently being heavily favored only to lose, again and again?

I already lost to a team that went 0-16 last year with the team in my sig, and now I'm probably going to lose in my main $ league to a team that was a 30 some point underdog...Seriously, Peyton, Peterson, SJax, Andre, Colston, Finley, Gates, Jennings all started for me this week while my opponent rolled out the likes of Donald Brown, Collie, Keller, Walter...

I actually decided to play in 3 money leagues this year but if I continue to have bad luck I will probably go back to just 1...

Anyone else want to vent?

So what's the % of knowledge vs luck?

AGS. Or in other words, you lost a one game series. Of course, it was luck you lost. Replay that game a hundred times, and what do you think will happen? This is why head to head leagues aren't the best way to find the best fantasy football player and total points are a bit better. H2H in a single elimination playoff tournament has seen some nutty outcomes, but that's the most popular setup.