Aaron Jones...sell??

[kylejargon]

I would like to add that in the summer I read and listen to a few podcast that said Williams would be the complementary back in GB while Montgomery was healthy but Jones was the back to own if Montgomery ever went down because he looked more of the early down part while Williams would get all the 3rd down work and some early downs. So it was more than people getting lucky here.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Sell high for me if I can get a late 1st or better. I think he'll be a decent RB2 down the stretch, but it will eventually turn into a committee in GB either once Montgomery and Williams are fully healthy late this season or in 2018. I don't see a high chance of long term value. It could happen, but I'd rather sell.

[moishetreats]

The kid looks good. Really good.

He is taking advantage of a good situation but is showing his talent at the same time. He deserves to be their lead back and will be leaned on heavily with Hundley there.

100%. As a fan, I feel this way. Coaches and teammates and media are all saying the same thing. He just. looks. good. Damn good.

And he had a siiiiick blitz pick-up on Hundley's TD run. That will help keep him on the field, too.

While it's hard to predict the future, he looks like he's the real deal for 2017.

One other note: as good as he looked (and as bad as Montgomery looked), Jones got a higher percentage of snaps from scrimmage than the Packers typically give their #1 back. I wouldn't be shocked if they look for ways to reduce that in the next few games to help him endure the full season. So, 15-17 touches and a couple of targets seem most realistic, but he can definitely produce with those numbers.

[Dirty Mike&the Boys]

As a packers fan, I’ll tell you that this boy can RUN. The problem is GB is not a running team, when Rodgers returns, you can expect his numbers to taper off significantly. Long term value is probably minimal.

[steelman]

He looks really good. Not to mention that PFF has him graded very high considering he's a rookie. I drafted him but due to injuries, I ended up dropping him. I wasn't too worried at the time because I figured I could pick him back up down the road, but his time came quicker than I was expecting

[BuckeyeNation]

If at any point this season I can get any 1st for him, I'd sell in a heartbeat. To me Jones has looked good, not great. I haven't seen anything from him that tells me he's anything more than an average to slightly above average RB. This year's team situation is falling perfectly for him to be the focal point of the Packers offense, and because of such I expect him to be severely overvalued as a dynasty asset, partially because of the owners that only look at stat sheets. With Rodgers out, GB is going to want to run the ball as much as they possibly can. Keep in mind that this scenario played out back in '13 when Rodgers got hurt before and missed ~half the season. Eddie Lacy took over as the GB offense and his value was sky high going into '14 because of his '13 production while Rodgers was hurt. What a lot of people failed to realize when they were expecting an even bigger season in '14 is that a RB is just not the focal point of the GB offense when Rodgers is under center, and the opportunity he received in '13 wasn't going to be there with a healthy Rodgers. Plus I think a plus pass-catching RB like Montgomery is much more a part of the team game plan with Rodgers under center than with Hundley. I think this sets up Jones to be a huge off-season sell if he continues to be the GB workhorse the rest of this season.

Now I know there's a lot of people that looked at Jones' stat-line from Sunday and thought he must have just been balling the entire game. That's really not the case and it's a situation where looking at the stat-line is a bit misleading. I watched every play of the GB/NO game. Jones had ONE big drive to start the game, and that was about it. Once adjustments were made, Jones had a very average game against a pretty below average defense. In the first drive of the game Jones had 4 carries for 70yds and a TD. The rest of the game after the opening drive, he had 13/61/0, 3/7/0. Don't get wrong ,that's still solid production for the touches, and he looked pretty good with his burst/vision/cuts, but to me the game wasn't nearly as impressive as his total stat line would indicate. I suspect Jones will continue to get the lion's share of touches in this backfield for the remainder of the season , and will probably be fairly productive with them. I just think the opponents that Jones has faced so far has inflated his value for the short-term, and I think the unique situation he'll be in for the rest of the season will make him an overvalued dynasty asset at season's end.

[Monkey]

Once adjustments were made, Jones had a very average game against a pretty below average defense. In the first drive of the game Jones had 4 carries for 70yds and a TD. The rest of the game after the opening drive, he had 13/61/0, 3/7/0. Don't get wrong ,that's still solid production for the touches, and he looked pretty good with his burst/vision/cuts, but to me the game wasn't nearly as impressive as his total stat line would indicate.

Obviously including your follow up that it's still solid production, but I do think this is interesting. Normally when I see a "take out this one good run and this is what his stats really look like" kind of argument it is normally pretty bleak, but the remainder you were working with was still north of 4.5 ypc. Out of his 17 carries he had 2 that went for negative yards, -1 and -2. I didn't watch the whole game, but I was impressed with the runs that I saw him make something out of nothing in a game where Hundley was under center.

I'm quite biased though, I've been a huge fan of Jones since I started looking at him last offseason and I was shocked he wasn't being drafted higher in mocks. After Jamal was drafted ahead of him I understood why people had him lower, but I still drafted Jones over Jamal in at least one league.

[IR1]

The flip side is that Hundley didn't do anything in the passing game, didn't see the entire game, but I assume NO made more of an effort to stop the run challenging Hundley to beat them with his arm. With Rodgers, defenses won't be able to stack the box. Not expecting elite numbers out of Jones, but solid numbers for my RB2 seem fair.

[BuckeyeNation]

Once adjustments were made, Jones had a very average game against a pretty below average defense. In the first drive of the game Jones had 4 carries for 70yds and a TD. The rest of the game after the opening drive, he had 13/61/0, 3/7/0. Don't get wrong ,that's still solid production for the touches, and he looked pretty good with his burst/vision/cuts, but to me the game wasn't nearly as impressive as his total stat line would indicate.

Obviously including your follow up that it's still solid production, but I do think this is interesting. Normally when I see a "take out this one good run and this is what his stats really look like" kind of argument it is normally pretty bleak, but the remainder you were working with was still north of 4.5 ypc. Out of his 17 carries he had 2 that went for negative yards, -1 and -2. I didn't watch the whole game, but I was impressed with the runs that I saw him make something out of nothing in a game where Hundley was under center.

I'm quite biased though, I've been a huge fan of Jones since I started looking at him last offseason and I was shocked he wasn't being drafted higher in mocks. After Jamal was drafted ahead of him I understood why people had him lower, but I still drafted Jones over Jamal in at least one league.

And as I stated, he still produced at a solid clip given the carries he had to work with. What I'm saying is that his two games as a workhorse were against DAL/NO, and this game against NO really wasn't that spectacular. I'll repeat that his burst/vision/cuts looked solid but not spectacular. I just think he's a player who's unique redraft situation is going to over inflate his dynasty value to something it shouldn't be.

[captain howdy]

It could be argued that aajones has yet to even be used as a "workhorse"...not in the sense that he's had a boatload of touches

[ericanadian]

The flip side is that Hundley didn't do anything in the passing game, didn't see the entire game, but I assume NO made more of an effort to stop the run challenging Hundley to beat them with his arm. With Rodgers, defenses won't be able to stack the box. Not expecting elite numbers out of Jones, but solid numbers for my RB2 seem fair.

Didn't watch the game, but seems unlikely given that they played a third safety (Bell) on 67% of the snaps. They were playing four man fronts most of the game and their third linebacker (Te'o) only saw 33% of the snaps. This would suggest Jones was up against mostly six and seven men in the box unless they were moving up two safeties with regularity.

[Phaded]

The flip side is that Hundley didn't do anything in the passing game, didn't see the entire game, but I assume NO made more of an effort to stop the run challenging Hundley to beat them with his arm. With Rodgers, defenses won't be able to stack the box. Not expecting elite numbers out of Jones, but solid numbers for my RB2 seem fair.

Didn't watch the game, but seems unlikely given that they played a third safety (Bell) on 67% of the snaps. They were playing four man fronts most of the game and their third linebacker (Te'o) only saw 33% of the snaps. This would suggest Jones was up against mostly six and seven men in the box unless they were moving up two safeties with regularity.

The Packers ran a lot of spread and shotgun formations from what I saw, so that would explain the defensive snap percentages.

Needless to say, Hundley is clearly not a threat as a passing quarterback. They still needed to play the correct personal against the WRs since they couldn't have their LBs lining up against guys like Randall Cobb.

[Bot101]

Would you give a random/mid 2018 1st for him? Is that considered bold now or do we feel he really is worth that?

[Big Al]

It's what you would have to pay at the moment. I have been it talks with the A Jones owner and the current offer would be my 2018 1st (late), Smallwood, C Samuel for A Jones, 2018 2nd. I'm thinking about it for a one round drop and 2 prospects that have more question marks than Jones.

[BuckeyeNation]

Would you give a random/mid 2018 1st for him? Is that considered bold now or do we feel he really is worth that?

Please do not give a mid 1st for Jones. He's looked solid in a couple starts, but that's an overpay (though most owners will probably want that right now).