Yards Per Carry

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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lukkynumber13
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Re: Yards Per Carry

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:16 pm

Phaded wrote: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:51 pm Much like every other statistic out there - it can be utilized as a factor but should not be the only thing you look at.

YPC is a largely subjective stat that has so many variables that go into it - it simply cannot be used as the end all be all.
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It frustrates me when some people use YPC as their very first point in an argument for or against a player. That's just foolishness. It's a real stat, and it's not wholly meaningless, but it mainly gets thrown around a lot because it's a stat that anyone can simply figure by using simple arithmetic. Similar to a QB's completion percentage. Both stats mean very little to me.
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Re: Yards Per Carry

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:39 pm

GridironGuerilla wrote: Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:47 pm There seems to be a large amount of disdain for the statistic in this community
It seemed to me to be all anyone whined about with Devonta Freeman, for a time. After '14: "3.8 on 65 carries, he can't possibly be any good!". After '15: "he only got 4.0 last year, he's overrated!"

Then draftnik adored Melvin Gordon is established living at 3.x ypc all three of his years so far in the league, but he gets goal-line TDs and receiving production to make up for it, and now see how the community about-faces.

/rant

Anyway...

YPC can be an overrated statistic, but further study is necessary before making such a conclusion. When you review his tape, is he leaving yards on the field by missing creases and always going down to first-contact, or is he legitimately getting everything he can and usually beating first-contact, but it's too often happening behind the line of scrimmage because his O-line isn't doing its part?

In a current case like Joe Mixon, yes, his dreadful YPC isn't really so alarming, because the tape shows he's rarely leaving yards on the field and doing well in pass-protection. As a result, his PFF grade so far is still ranked a respectable 14th at his position, despite his stats. So it's logical to stay optimistic with him and anticipate better future seasons, because he isn't the problem.

Le'Veon Bell is a great dynasty example of this. His rookie year his YPC was 3.5 on 244 carries. At a cursory glance, that would have seemed enough of a sample-size to be sure he just wouldn't be much good. But it wasn't him; it was the O-line. Closer examination of his tape showed a guy often getting 3 or 4 yards at the LoS when his O-line was getting him nothing, was reliable converting on x-and-short, and had fantastic receiving abilities for the position. That closer examination forecasted what he would become, not the YPC.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Yards Per Carry

Postby Weeman » Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:07 pm

For me it's almost a useless stat when evaluating what a player will do moving forward. I feel I can learn more from broken or evaded tackles.

If Gordon gets has a low ypc as a result of getting RZ touches & TDs that's a problem I'll take.

I'd be more concerned with a rb that fumbles or can't pass protect. I'm against using ypc as an argument for a players talent level. Too many variables factor in long & short-term.

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Re: Yards Per Carry

Postby rubber_duck » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:09 am

Tsunami wrote: Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:05 pm YPC is a decent (and easy to find) measure of RB talent, but there are other factors. Advanced stats like broken tackles and yards after contact sometimes show a different story. A player like Melvin Gordon who has a 3.7 career YPC can still be a top fantasy RB, but that is the exception. It's not uncommon for players who have a high YPC on one team to struggle on another, which means as a statistic it is very situational. Where I think it is really valid is comparing players on the same team to each other.

For example, DeMarco Murray had 4.7 YPC in Dallas in 2014, 3.6 YPC in Philly in 2015, and 4.4 YPC in Tennessee in 2016. I don't think he suddenly got worse that year on the Eagles and then suddenly got better again, and I don't believe he was injured. Ryan Mathews had 5.1 YPC that year on the same team, and Sproles had 3.8 YPC, so I'm not sure you can entirely blame the offense either. So far this season Murray has 4.6 YPC compared to Henry's 5.1. I don't think this means they are both better than Gurley or Gordon, but I do think it means that Henry is more effective than Murray right now with this small sample size, and Mathews was more effective than Murray in 2015.

Another limitation is the type of defense. A 3rd down back typically gets carries against a pass defense, which will artificially raise their YPC, while a goal-line back who scores a 1 yard TD only gets 1 yard for that successful run. Some websites break this down if you look hard enough, so you can find out that C.J. Anderson is getting outplayed by Charles on base or passing downs but not short yardage situations.
Good stuff here, and much the same way I see it.

YPC as a stand alone statistic is very easy to use and so readily available that it is nearly impossible to avoid. It is a solid place to start for the casual football fan or the FF owner that wants a quick, superficial analysis.

If there is any sort of deeper player evaluation being done, then YPC is of little value when used by itself.

When evaluating a RB's talent, his YPC is something that should be hashed out very early in the process, because it does have a purpose. In a forum thread it should be one of the first things discussed, in detail, with context. However, if we are 4 pages deep into the analysis of the RB, then YPC probably has no place left in the discussion.

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Re: Yards Per Carry

Postby ericanadian » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:25 pm

I like to slice it down to inside yards and outside yards, but I'm fine with ypc as a statistic.
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