Worried about? Sammy edition...

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:14 pm

Also did you really just come onto a fantasy football forum to call someone else a nerd?
:lol:
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I probably should have done something more productive with that time...

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:47 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:38 pm
kmbryant09 wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:58 am I don't know about anyone else, but to me, Sammy doesn't look like he's running right. The INT was the perfect example of this - granted it was a bad throw by Goff - but Sammy had time to quickly plant his left (upfield) foot in the grass to completely stop his momentum and come back for what likely would have been an easy catch. But instead, he just slowed down gingerly and lazily reached back for the pass, leading to the bad bounce INT. To me, either his foot / ankle is not the same and he knows he can't cut on a dime, or he's playing not to get hurt.

He's still pretty talented, but it looks like he's running with weights around his ankles - anyone else notice that?
There was no way Watkins could have caught that ball. He had Williams beat, but Goff underthrew by a lot. Watkins was basically trying to slow down to come back to the ball while running at top speed, which is impossible to do. His mistake wasn't not catching the ball, it was trying to make a play on the ball. Williams wouldn't have caught it if Watkins didn't try to make a play with one hand. The most Watkins could have done was a half effort because of the underthrow.

Watkins looked good otherwise. I haven't seen any problems with his feet or ankles. He's made some great cuts in his routes this year, but hasn't had the volume for people to see it.
I don't know how to link a video to the play, but would love for someone else to do that. I've watched the play 10 times and my opinion on Sammy's movement hasn't changed.

Watch the play, Sammy turns his head around to locate the ball, and then takes 4 steps before reaching out for the ball. Give him the benefit of the doubt to give him time to locate the ball, and he still takes 2 - 3 steps, and yet he doesn't cut, plant, stop momentum, fall backwards, or even turn his body. All he had to do was plant his left leg hard upfield to slow down his movement a few feet, do we really think he can't slow himself down by a yard if we give him 2 - 3 steps? Are you telling me other elite WR's don't make that catch? A. Brown catches that in his sleep. Julio? No problem.

Now, comparing Sammy to those guys is unfair. But all I'm trying to illustrate is that I don't think Sammy is moving right. Either:

1. His lower body injuries have taken a toll on his athleticism in a similar way that injuries have physically limited guys like Dez, Murray, Nicks, Cobb, Cruz, etc. Now, some guys like Crabtree and Graham saw a similar drop in athleticism but have been able to resurrect their careers, but the similarities are there and they concern me.

2. He doesn't trust his health and doesn't want to risk getting hurt in a contract year.

I know it's just one (unpopular) opinion, but his movement skills aren't passing my eye test, and at the very least provide another red flag (along with being injury prone, inconsistent, not featured, etc.).
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:16 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:13 pm
Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:58 pm .

haha, you guys are hilarious. goff is making great throws. so one or two are off, he's a second year qb.

these nerds going over tape will see the same things about every qb. all of them make bad throws during a game. anybody watch brees yesterday? they're not throwing against air, there are players on the other side running towards them and trying to crush them with dbs shadowing the wrs.

.
Uh actually in that last game (the one where the opposing team's top two DBs were out) 15 out of his 40 throws were inaccurate, so there's that. Not saying he isn't playing well but don't act like he's not making his fair share of mistakes.

Also did you really just come onto a fantasy football forum to call someone else a nerd?
haha, touché.

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:19 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:47 pm I don't know how to link a video to the play, but would love for someone else to do that. I've watched the play 10 times and my opinion on Sammy's movement hasn't changed.

Watch the play, Sammy turns his head around to locate the ball, and then takes 4 steps before reaching out for the ball. Give him the benefit of the doubt to give him time to locate the ball, and he still takes 2 - 3 steps, and yet he doesn't cut, plant, stop momentum, fall backwards, or even turn his body. All he had to do was plant his left leg hard upfield to slow down his movement a few feet, do we really think he can't slow himself down by a yard if we give him 2 - 3 steps? Are you telling me other elite WR's don't make that catch? A. Brown catches that in his sleep. Julio? No problem.

Now, comparing Sammy to those guys is unfair. But all I'm trying to illustrate is that I don't think Sammy is moving right. Either:

1. His lower body injuries have taken a toll on his athleticism in a similar way that injuries have physically limited guys like Dez, Murray, Nicks, Cobb, Cruz, etc. Now, some guys like Crabtree and Graham saw a similar drop in athleticism but have been able to resurrect their careers, but the similarities are there and they concern me.

2. He doesn't trust his health and doesn't want to risk getting hurt in a contract year.

I know it's just one (unpopular) opinion, but his movement skills aren't passing my eye test, and at the very least provide another red flag (along with being injury prone, inconsistent, not featured, etc.).
I don't see it. You're asking a lot for a WR to make a high percentage play on a significantly underthrown ball. I'm not even sure Brown or Julio make that play. Planting your left leg hard could also put you at risk for injury while you're going full speed down field. WR's are taught to come back to the ball, but not in the sense of "Hey, if I underthrow you by a lot, I still expect you to catch it."

There are a lot of gif's floating around on Twitter of some All-22 from Watkins routes this season and he looks very good. If there's something wrong with his feet or ankles, he could've fooled me.

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby ericanadian » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:16 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:47 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:38 pm
kmbryant09 wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:58 am I don't know about anyone else, but to me, Sammy doesn't look like he's running right. The INT was the perfect example of this - granted it was a bad throw by Goff - but Sammy had time to quickly plant his left (upfield) foot in the grass to completely stop his momentum and come back for what likely would have been an easy catch. But instead, he just slowed down gingerly and lazily reached back for the pass, leading to the bad bounce INT. To me, either his foot / ankle is not the same and he knows he can't cut on a dime, or he's playing not to get hurt.

He's still pretty talented, but it looks like he's running with weights around his ankles - anyone else notice that?
There was no way Watkins could have caught that ball. He had Williams beat, but Goff underthrew by a lot. Watkins was basically trying to slow down to come back to the ball while running at top speed, which is impossible to do. His mistake wasn't not catching the ball, it was trying to make a play on the ball. Williams wouldn't have caught it if Watkins didn't try to make a play with one hand. The most Watkins could have done was a half effort because of the underthrow.

Watkins looked good otherwise. I haven't seen any problems with his feet or ankles. He's made some great cuts in his routes this year, but hasn't had the volume for people to see it.
I don't know how to link a video to the play, but would love for someone else to do that. I've watched the play 10 times and my opinion on Sammy's movement hasn't changed.

Watch the play, Sammy turns his head around to locate the ball, and then takes 4 steps before reaching out for the ball. Give him the benefit of the doubt to give him time to locate the ball, and he still takes 2 - 3 steps, and yet he doesn't cut, plant, stop momentum, fall backwards, or even turn his body. All he had to do was plant his left leg hard upfield to slow down his movement a few feet, do we really think he can't slow himself down by a yard if we give him 2 - 3 steps? Are you telling me other elite WR's don't make that catch? A. Brown catches that in his sleep. Julio? No problem.

Now, comparing Sammy to those guys is unfair. But all I'm trying to illustrate is that I don't think Sammy is moving right. Either:

1. His lower body injuries have taken a toll on his athleticism in a similar way that injuries have physically limited guys like Dez, Murray, Nicks, Cobb, Cruz, etc. Now, some guys like Crabtree and Graham saw a similar drop in athleticism but have been able to resurrect their careers, but the similarities are there and they concern me.

2. He doesn't trust his health and doesn't want to risk getting hurt in a contract year.

I know it's just one (unpopular) opinion, but his movement skills aren't passing my eye test, and at the very least provide another red flag (along with being injury prone, inconsistent, not featured, etc.).
Did you consider the possibility that maybe he's just arrogant enough to believe he could one-hand catch the ball and keep his speed? That's what it looked like to me. He had a fair bit of space to work with and had been having his way with the defense most of the game. My guess is he just got cocky and wanted to put up an OBJ type highlight reel play with a shot at a TD.
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby dm1129 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:05 am

kmbryant09 wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:47 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:38 pm
kmbryant09 wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:58 am I don't know about anyone else, but to me, Sammy doesn't look like he's running right. The INT was the perfect example of this - granted it was a bad throw by Goff - but Sammy had time to quickly plant his left (upfield) foot in the grass to completely stop his momentum and come back for what likely would have been an easy catch. But instead, he just slowed down gingerly and lazily reached back for the pass, leading to the bad bounce INT. To me, either his foot / ankle is not the same and he knows he can't cut on a dime, or he's playing not to get hurt.

He's still pretty talented, but it looks like he's running with weights around his ankles - anyone else notice that?
There was no way Watkins could have caught that ball. He had Williams beat, but Goff underthrew by a lot. Watkins was basically trying to slow down to come back to the ball while running at top speed, which is impossible to do. His mistake wasn't not catching the ball, it was trying to make a play on the ball. Williams wouldn't have caught it if Watkins didn't try to make a play with one hand. The most Watkins could have done was a half effort because of the underthrow.

Watkins looked good otherwise. I haven't seen any problems with his feet or ankles. He's made some great cuts in his routes this year, but hasn't had the volume for people to see it.
I don't know how to link a video to the play, but would love for someone else to do that. I've watched the play 10 times and my opinion on Sammy's movement hasn't changed.

Watch the play, Sammy turns his head around to locate the ball, and then takes 4 steps before reaching out for the ball. Give him the benefit of the doubt to give him time to locate the ball, and he still takes 2 - 3 steps, and yet he doesn't cut, plant, stop momentum, fall backwards, or even turn his body. All he had to do was plant his left leg hard upfield to slow down his movement a few feet, do we really think he can't slow himself down by a yard if we give him 2 - 3 steps? Are you telling me other elite WR's don't make that catch? A. Brown catches that in his sleep. Julio? No problem.

Now, comparing Sammy to those guys is unfair. But all I'm trying to illustrate is that I don't think Sammy is moving right. Either:

1. His lower body injuries have taken a toll on his athleticism in a similar way that injuries have physically limited guys like Dez, Murray, Nicks, Cobb, Cruz, etc. Now, some guys like Crabtree and Graham saw a similar drop in athleticism but have been able to resurrect their careers, but the similarities are there and they concern me.

2. He doesn't trust his health and doesn't want to risk getting hurt in a contract year.

I know it's just one (unpopular) opinion, but his movement skills aren't passing my eye test, and at the very least provide another red flag (along with being injury prone, inconsistent, not featured, etc.).
I agree. All season I have been trying to figure out if he is just not the same or intentionally letting up to avoid injury prior to having the opportunity for a long term deal. There have been many plays where he looks to be uninterested and not going 100%. Look at tape of him when he entered the league and then look at recent tape, there is a difference.

Regarding the pass from Goff, it was a pass that he could have tracked. There was time to adjust and he simply did not.

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby skip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 am

Anyone watching that play and blaming it on Watkins has a lack of understanding of something called physics and more specifically momentum.

Start at the 7:42 mark of the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRix51iKiJs

His body is facing 180 degrees the opposite of where Goff short arms the football and he's supposed to slow all of his momentum, turn, adjust, etc. to come up with the football in a 1 second window? Not only that but I am supposed to take away from ONE PLAY a complete analysis of Sammy Watkins. I'm not sure if I should be laughing, crying, or smashing my head against my desk right now...
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:58 pm

skip wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 am Not only that but I am supposed to take away from ONE PLAY a complete analysis of Sammy Watkins. I'm not sure if I should be laughing, crying, or smashing my head against my desk right now...
The analysis of that one play in this thread reminds me of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBz3PqA2Fmc

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:27 pm

Oddball456 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:58 pm
skip wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 am Not only that but I am supposed to take away from ONE PLAY a complete analysis of Sammy Watkins. I'm not sure if I should be laughing, crying, or smashing my head against my desk right now...
The analysis of that one play in this thread reminds me of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBz3PqA2Fmc
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby kmbryant09 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:59 pm

skip wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 am Anyone watching that play and blaming it on Watkins has a lack of understanding of something called physics and more specifically momentum.

Start at the 7:42 mark of the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRix51iKiJs

His body is facing 180 degrees the opposite of where Goff short arms the football and he's supposed to slow all of his momentum, turn, adjust, etc. to come up with the football in a 1 second window? Not only that but I am supposed to take away from ONE PLAY a complete analysis of Sammy Watkins. I'm not sure if I should be laughing, crying, or smashing my head against my desk right now...
I have a pretty basic understanding of physics and momentum - thanks for the insult though.

You realize an NFL play takes about 4 - 5 seconds from start to finish - so implying that Watkins only had 1 second to adjust doesn't prove anything. The more accurate aspect to look at would be, as I mentioned before, the number of steps he had to adjust to the ball. Even giving him time to turn & locate the ball, he took 2 - 3 additional steps, and didn't really make any adjustments as far as I could tell. These WR's are elite, world-class athletes - and I routinely see them contort their bodies, make sharp cuts, stop & start themselves extremely quickly, etc. etc. - and Watkins didn't do any of those things. I'm not sure if it was simply a lack of effort or a lack of athletic ability, but it was alarming to me when I watched it happen live. I went back and watched the play 10x, including in slow motion, and I still came away with the same concerns.

Of course it's just 1 play. But as someone else pointed out - go back and watch his film from Clemson, or from his first 2 years in the league. To me, it's pretty clear that he's not moving around with the same agility, fluidity, and suddenness. Considering that he's had hip surgery, a calf injury (missed 2 games), a sprained ankle (missed 2 games), and a fractured foot that included two (2) surgeries all in the past 3 years - isn't it fair to question if these injuries have taken a physical toll on his ability, or even his confidence in his athletic ability?

Now, maybe I'm wrong and my eyes are fooling me. Again, I'm not claiming that he's washed up - I'm simply stating that I don't think he's moving around as well as he did 2 - 3 years ago before most of these injuries. But maybe he's not *quite* healthy after all of his injuries. Maybe he can find a way to be a top15 WR in the NFL even if the injuries have sapped ~10 - 20% of his athletic ability - maybe not. Or maybe, we'll see his career ruined by injuries just like we've seen with H. Nicks, V. Cruz, M. Austin, P. Harvin, etc.

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby cweds » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:15 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:59 pm
skip wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 am Anyone watching that play and blaming it on Watkins has a lack of understanding of something called physics and more specifically momentum.

Start at the 7:42 mark of the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRix51iKiJs

His body is facing 180 degrees the opposite of where Goff short arms the football and he's supposed to slow all of his momentum, turn, adjust, etc. to come up with the football in a 1 second window? Not only that but I am supposed to take away from ONE PLAY a complete analysis of Sammy Watkins. I'm not sure if I should be laughing, crying, or smashing my head against my desk right now...
I have a pretty basic understanding of physics and momentum - thanks for the insult though.

You realize an NFL play takes about 4 - 5 seconds from start to finish - so implying that Watkins only had 1 second to adjust doesn't prove anything. The more accurate aspect to look at would be, as I mentioned before, the number of steps he had to adjust to the ball. Even giving him time to turn & locate the ball, he took 2 - 3 additional steps, and didn't really make any adjustments as far as I could tell. These WR's are elite, world-class athletes - and I routinely see them contort their bodies, make sharp cuts, stop & start themselves extremely quickly, etc. etc. - and Watkins didn't do any of those things. I'm not sure if it was simply a lack of effort or a lack of athletic ability, but it was alarming to me when I watched it happen live. I went back and watched the play 10x, including in slow motion, and I still came away with the same concerns.

Of course it's just 1 play. But as someone else pointed out - go back and watch his film from Clemson, or from his first 2 years in the league. To me, it's pretty clear that he's not moving around with the same agility, fluidity, and suddenness. Considering that he's had hip surgery, a calf injury (missed 2 games), a sprained ankle (missed 2 games), and a fractured foot that included two (2) surgeries all in the past 3 years - isn't it fair to question if these injuries have taken a physical toll on his ability, or even his confidence in his athletic ability?

Now, maybe I'm wrong and my eyes are fooling me. Again, I'm not claiming that he's washed up - I'm simply stating that I don't think he's moving around as well as he did 2 - 3 years ago before most of these injuries. But maybe he's not *quite* healthy after all of his injuries. Maybe he can find a way to be a top15 WR in the NFL even if the injuries have sapped ~10 - 20% of his athletic ability - maybe not. Or maybe, we'll see his career ruined by injuries just like we've seen with H. Nicks, V. Cruz, M. Austin, P. Harvin, etc.

I guess time will tell!
Maybe the issue is you're watching in slow-mo? 2-3 steps at full speed isn't much time. My $0.02, it looks like he maybe could've slowed down more but wanted to make the catch while maintaining as much speed as possible. So more of an issue of being over-aggressive than lacking mobility.
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby skip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:00 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:59 pm You realize an NFL play takes about 4 - 5 seconds from start to finish
I posted the video. From the time the ball leaves Goff's hand until it reaches Watkins is 2 seconds, not 4 or 5. And that's from the start of the throw not the point where he picked up the football much less could react to it. We can watch it 10 times or 100, it wouldn't make a difference to me. Calling him out for not making what I believe are unrealistic adjustments isn't something I am ever going to agree with.
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:01 pm

Regardless: The easiest solution to that play is Goff making a better throw. Watkins had his man beat. Goff's pass did not match it. It's not a huge deal considering they won the game, but the problems of the play do not start with Watkins and the route he ran.

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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:20 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:01 pm Regardless: The easiest solution to that play is Goff making a better throw. Watkins had his man beat. Goff's pass did not match it. It's not a huge deal considering they won the game, but the problems of the play do not start with Watkins and the route he ran.
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Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby dm1129 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:57 pm

Goff stepped up into the pocket to avoid the defensive end and in so doing limited the amount of space he had in front of him during his throwing motion. Definitely not a great pass, but not awful with context like so many here are claiming. A receiver should always antcipate the ball could be coming his way, that is receiving 101 and Watkins simply did not do this on the play. The problem is there are many examples of this from him throughout the year.


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