Worried about? Sammy edition...

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Generic Username
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1719
Joined: Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Generic Username » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:49 pm

To further expand on the above poster who kindly did the research for ppg over his career:

I've always wondered why "average" is used for detailing a season's points per game breakdown rather than "median"...one is far more descriptive than the other, IMO

User avatar
gogobradyarm
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1682
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:39 am
Location: Twitter.com/DrEvilsDynasty
Contact:

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby gogobradyarm » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:23 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:26 pm
gogobradyarm wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:45 pm He was getting open and Goff was just missing him badly. The guy can ball like the best of them, he just gets limited quality targets.
Yep. Watkins looks good on tape. He's explosive, can still beat anyone deep, his routes are very good and he's sure-handed. Watkins can win at all levels of the field. But, the chemistry with Goff isn't there and Goff is better at hitting the short/intermediate routes than going deep. Yesterday, Watkins shook Patrick Peterson on a double move going into the endzone, but Goff threw to the corner. Watkins could've easily run the wrong route there though.

But, you look back and see things like this:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/920721764199665670
https://twitter.com/BluMambaSports/stat ... 0424344576

That doesn't look like a WR that's washed up.

I don't expect anything to change though. The Rams are winning and their gameplan works.
The fact remains, no matter what stat you throw at Sammy, is that in his career, he has not received quality targets consistently. We can talk about how he is up and down, but that is directly correlated to his QB play and whether or not he is getting targets or quality targets. With the Bills, they were a run first team most of his time there, and a good one at that, so they hardly relied on him. Even when they did Tyrod was hit or miss. If Sammy can get out of LA and land with a team that actually uses him properly, he will be a top 5-10 WR and I have no doubt in my mind about that. He has endless talent, but atrocious situation. I really hope he ends up with the Lions, Eagles, Cowboys or the Niners next year (assuming he plays the X and Cousins ends up there, that would be the IDEAL situation).
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

StableOfRBs
Starter
Starter
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 4:29 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby StableOfRBs » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:36 pm

Well the Rams can still (and probably will) pick up his 5th year option considering they're on track for about 50.5 million in cap space next year and, in my opinion, they have no reason not to, so I think people expecting him to go anywhere else next year are probably gonna have to wait until 2019. This is assuming they don't franchise him then or work out an extension before then, which I also think is likely.

Fantasy aside this is 2 years in a row (so far) where Sammy has been on a top-10 scoring NFL offense with little to no impact from Watkins himself.
Greek Mythology League - Heracles - 2QB/3RB/4WR/2TE/2Flex/2DT/2DE/4LB/2CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/13740#1

Marvel vs. DC League - Lords of Order - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1SFlex/2Flex/1DT/2DE/3LB/1CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/58114#1

User avatar
dm1129
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1284
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:10 pm

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby dm1129 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:40 pm

gogobradyarm wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:23 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:26 pm
gogobradyarm wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:45 pm He was getting open and Goff was just missing him badly. The guy can ball like the best of them, he just gets limited quality targets.
Yep. Watkins looks good on tape. He's explosive, can still beat anyone deep, his routes are very good and he's sure-handed. Watkins can win at all levels of the field. But, the chemistry with Goff isn't there and Goff is better at hitting the short/intermediate routes than going deep. Yesterday, Watkins shook Patrick Peterson on a double move going into the endzone, but Goff threw to the corner. Watkins could've easily run the wrong route there though.

But, you look back and see things like this:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/920721764199665670
https://twitter.com/BluMambaSports/stat ... 0424344576

That doesn't look like a WR that's washed up.

I don't expect anything to change though. The Rams are winning and their gameplan works.
The fact remains, no matter what stat you throw at Sammy, is that in his career, he has not received quality targets consistently. We can talk about how he is up and down, but that is directly correlated to his QB play and whether or not he is getting targets or quality targets. With the Bills, they were a run first team most of his time there, and a good one at that, so they hardly relied on him. Even when they did Tyrod was hit or miss. If Sammy can get out of LA and land with a team that actually uses him properly, he will be a top 5-10 WR and I have no doubt in my mind about that. He has endless talent, but atrocious situation. I really hope he ends up with the Lions, Eagles, Cowboys or the Niners next year (assuming he plays the X and Cousins ends up there, that would be the IDEAL situation).
The Rams are one of the best offenses in the league and still improving....It is true Watkins has been missed on some plays, but he also has given up on plays far too often, I have seen it. I am a Rams fan and was very surprised and happy they were able to acquire Watkins. Now quite honestly, I see some traits that make me think McDermott knew exactly what he had.

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 14242
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:05 pm

gogobradyarm wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:23 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:26 pm
gogobradyarm wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:45 pm He was getting open and Goff was just missing him badly. The guy can ball like the best of them, he just gets limited quality targets.
Yep. Watkins looks good on tape. He's explosive, can still beat anyone deep, his routes are very good and he's sure-handed. Watkins can win at all levels of the field. But, the chemistry with Goff isn't there and Goff is better at hitting the short/intermediate routes than going deep. Yesterday, Watkins shook Patrick Peterson on a double move going into the endzone, but Goff threw to the corner. Watkins could've easily run the wrong route there though.

But, you look back and see things like this:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/920721764199665670
https://twitter.com/BluMambaSports/stat ... 0424344576

That doesn't look like a WR that's washed up.

I don't expect anything to change though. The Rams are winning and their gameplan works.
The fact remains, no matter what stat you throw at Sammy, is that in his career, he has not received quality targets consistently. We can talk about how he is up and down, but that is directly correlated to his QB play and whether or not he is getting targets or quality targets. With the Bills, they were a run first team most of his time there, and a good one at that, so they hardly relied on him. Even when they did Tyrod was hit or miss.
Target Pace:

2014: 128
2015: 118
2016: 104 (injured)
2017: 66

Buffalo wasn't a great situation, but he was absolutely relied on a lot offensively. I don't understand the argument that Watkins is only worth 66 targets in a season. 32-year-old Ted Ginn is on pace for 72 targets in New Orleans. Marquise Goodwin is on pace for 98. It doesn't make sense. It's not like Watkins looks bad on tape. His talent is the same and he's (gasp) healthy.

dipANDglide
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1980
Joined: Tue May 26, 2015 12:10 pm

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby dipANDglide » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:46 pm

Give the man WR1 targets and he's a WR1. I said it earlier, and I'll say it again, fantasy is all about opportunity and health, if he ends up putting both together for a stretch a lot of people in here will eat their words.

Sammy haters: 1

Truthers: 0

This debate is still TBD, tho. Sammy is younger than some rookies this year. Stay healthy big fella.

User avatar
cweds
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 10:27 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby cweds » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:24 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:36 pm Well the Rams can still (and probably will) pick up his 5th year option considering they're on track for about 50.5 million in cap space next year and, in my opinion, they have no reason not to, so I think people expecting him to go anywhere else next year are probably gonna have to wait until 2019. This is assuming they don't franchise him then or work out an extension before then, which I also think is likely.

Fantasy aside this is 2 years in a row (so far) where Sammy has been on a top-10 scoring NFL offense with little to no impact from Watkins himself.
Are you sure the Rams can pick up his option? I thought it was lost when the Bills declined it. I'm also not sure the Rams would tag him if they plan to continue using him as sparingly as they have.
Team 1 (3rd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Jamal Williams, Carson, AP, Lindsay, RJ
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, Trequan Smith, Pettis, MVS, J'mon Moore, C. Williams
TE: Olsen, Gescicki, Ebron, J. Smith
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th

Team 2 (2nd season):
12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: DJ, Guice, Penny, Royce Freeman, Conner, Carson, Kelly, Dixon, Morris
WR: Allen, JJSS, Landry, Robinson, Watkins, Godwin, Callaway, Allison, Doctson, J. Moore, MVS
TE: Kelce, Njoku

User avatar
lukkynumber13
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 13531
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 2:41 pm

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:49 pm

cweds wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:24 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:36 pm Well the Rams can still (and probably will) pick up his 5th year option considering they're on track for about 50.5 million in cap space next year and, in my opinion, they have no reason not to, so I think people expecting him to go anywhere else next year are probably gonna have to wait until 2019. This is assuming they don't franchise him then or work out an extension before then, which I also think is likely.

Fantasy aside this is 2 years in a row (so far) where Sammy has been on a top-10 scoring NFL offense with little to no impact from Watkins himself.
Are you sure the Rams can pick up his option? I thought it was lost when the Bills declined it. I'm also not sure the Rams would tag him if they plan to continue using him as sparingly as they have.
Agreed on both counts. He will be a FA (unless he signs an extension/re-signs with them)
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

User avatar
cweds
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 10:27 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby cweds » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:58 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:49 pm Agreed on both counts. He will be a FA (unless he signs an extension/re-signs with them)
The WR FA musical chairs will be a fun game to watch this offseason. Adams, Landry, Watkins, A-Rob (and Lee), plus Fitz/brown/brown all FA. I see Adams and Landry as the most likely to resign with their teams, after that who knows.

Edit: and should we include the ghost of Donte Moncrief?
Team 1 (3rd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Jamal Williams, Carson, AP, Lindsay, RJ
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, Trequan Smith, Pettis, MVS, J'mon Moore, C. Williams
TE: Olsen, Gescicki, Ebron, J. Smith
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th

Team 2 (2nd season):
12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: DJ, Guice, Penny, Royce Freeman, Conner, Carson, Kelly, Dixon, Morris
WR: Allen, JJSS, Landry, Robinson, Watkins, Godwin, Callaway, Allison, Doctson, J. Moore, MVS
TE: Kelce, Njoku

BuckeyeNation
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11314
Joined: Tue Dec 25, 2012 7:27 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby BuckeyeNation » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:39 am

I dunno, I can't see Sammy staying with the Rams voluntarily. They may pick up his option, but I think he'll do everything he can to go to a team that wants to utilize him as their true WR1.
-TEAM 1. Year 5 '15/'16 Champ
Ben
Freeman/Cook/Hyde/Crowell/AP/Rawls/JWill(GB)/Gallman/Vereen/Smallwood/Clement
Julio/Jordy/Crowder/Enunwa/JuJu/Zay/Treadwell/JJNelson/Anderson/Switzer
Olsen/Graham/Gathers/Kittle

-TEAM 2- Year 5 '13/'16 Champ-'14/'15 R/U
Luck/Cousins
Bell/Hunt/Gillislee/Henry/Charles/Rawls/Burkhead
Brown/Jordy/Tate/Moncrief/Enunwa/Meredith/Zay/JJNelson/Anderson/Stewart
Olsen/Ebron/Henry

-TEAM 3- Year 5
'13-'15 R/U
Cam/Smith/Trubisky
Zeke/CJA/Montgomery/Ware/Charles/Booker/Burk/Smallwood/Cohen
Brown/Hilton/Diggs/Marvin/Pryor/Parker/Maclin/Meredith/JJNelson
Reed/Doyle/Miller/Gathers

-TEAM 4- Year 3
Wilson/Mariota
Ajayi/Howard/Hyde/Riddick/Vereen/Burk/Clement
OBJ/ARob/MThomas/Landry/Adams/Crowder/MJones/White/Lee/Samuel
Olsen/Rudolph/Swoope/Barnidge

User avatar
joedirte
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 148
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby joedirte » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:23 pm

I'd like to see them use him as more than a deep threat. It seems Goff doesn't even look in his direction unless he's going deep.

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 14242
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:34 pm

BuckeyeNation wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:39 am I dunno, I can't see Sammy staying with the Rams voluntarily. They may pick up his option, but I think he'll do everything he can to go to a team that wants to utilize him as their true WR1.
Buffalo declined his option weeks before trading him, so he will hit the market. I can't see the Rams franchising him. It makes no sense when he's not being targeted much. This year, the franchise tag for WR's is $15.68M. So, something in that neighborhood is what they'll be staring at. For that amount of money, you might as well start looking at a long-term deal for another WR.

StableOfRBs
Starter
Starter
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 4:29 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby StableOfRBs » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:31 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:34 pm
BuckeyeNation wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:39 am I dunno, I can't see Sammy staying with the Rams voluntarily. They may pick up his option, but I think he'll do everything he can to go to a team that wants to utilize him as their true WR1.
Buffalo declined his option weeks before trading him, so he will hit the market. I can't see the Rams franchising him. It makes no sense when he's not being targeted much. This year, the franchise tag for WR's is $15.68M. So, something in that neighborhood is what they'll be staring at. For that amount of money, you might as well start looking at a long-term deal for another WR.
I knew that they had but I wasn't sure if that carried over when they traded him, didn't know if LA also got the ability to decline/accept his 5th year option.

I could see him being a candidate for a transition tag, don't think there's anyone on the Rams right now that is in dire need of a franchise tag and the Rams would have more than enough to match whatever another team would be offering Watkins, it's not like he's going to be super expensive given his injury history and stat totals over the past few years. Would also make other teams a bit wary of their offers for him as well.

The free agent WR class will include this year (for better or worse): Alshon, Pryor, Watkins, Marqise Lee, ARob, Davante Adams, Landry, John Brown, Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, among others. Watkins is definitely in the top 5 of talent with Alshon, ARob, Adams and Landry (and 5th most expensive based on this seasons salaries) but a lot of teams are gonna question whether he's worth the money because of his boom/bust unpredictability in production from game to game and his missed games over the previous 3 seasons.

These are (in my opinion) the most WR-needy teams based on who will be on the roster next season, in no particular order:
Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Jacksonville, LAR, NYJ, San Fran

Some teams that are maybe a bit weaker at WR than most people would like might have been omitted because of a strong receiving tight end like Kelce in KC or run a very ground-oriented offense (Tennessee/Seattle) but those are the teams that (again, in my opinion) are most likely to need a WR assuming nobody is signed to an extension by the end of the year.

These are the top 5 teams in terms of cap space for the 2018 season:
1. Indianapolis - 67.7 mil
2. NYJ - 56.1 mil
3. LAR - 50.4 mil
4. Washington - 49.4 mil
5. Cleveland - 48.7 mil

Of those top 5 only the Colts, Rams and Browns are set at qb for next year (assuming Cousins doesn't work out an extension with Washington and the Browns don't bring in a vet) and of those 3 teams only the Rams are set next year for their defense and running back. If Watkins wants to get paid (which is what players are really concerned about) his best bet to get top dollar is to stay in LA and work out a deal with the Rams since they've got the most money to dedicate to the WR position next year.

I've seen a lot of people mention San Fran (both here and elsewhere) and while they do have 45.7 mil to work with they have a couple key defensive players they need to re-sign along with Hyde (if they want to re-sign him) and they have some serious questions at QB next year unless they feel comfortable with Hoyer/Beathard under center (in which case would you really want Watkins to sign there?).

Whether they use him a ton in the passing game or not I don't see why the Rams wouldn't throw some cash Watkins's way to keep him on the team in case they change up the offense going forward, they certainly have the cash to spare and at the very least they could transition tag him so they have the ability to match whatever he gets offered elsewhere.
Greek Mythology League - Heracles - 2QB/3RB/4WR/2TE/2Flex/2DT/2DE/4LB/2CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/13740#1

Marvel vs. DC League - Lords of Order - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1SFlex/2Flex/1DT/2DE/3LB/1CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/58114#1

nathanq42
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4021
Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:40 am

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby nathanq42 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:27 pm

Watkins 'frustrated' about lack of targets in Rams' offense
https://www.thescore.com/news/1396165

"He's happy to be with a Rams squad that appears to be on the rise."

Noooooooooooo
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

User avatar
DJB
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:06 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Worried about? Sammy edition...

Postby DJB » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:42 pm

dipANDglide wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:46 pm Give the man WR1 targets and he's a WR1. I said it earlier, and I'll say it again, fantasy is all about opportunity and health, if he ends up putting both together for a stretch a lot of people in here will eat their words.

Sammy haters: 1

Truthers: 0

This debate is still TBD, tho. Sammy is younger than some rookies this year. Stay healthy big fella.
Is this true though? I dont have the numbers but if we extrapolate his current targets to reflect WR1targets would he be putting up WR 1 numbers?
Follow me on Twitter @NickDynastyff


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bronco Billy, Majestic-12 [Bot] and 34 guests