Jerick McKinnon Thread

[ericanadian]

McKinnon ran 67% of the snaps last night and out-carried Latavius. In hindsight, the drafting of Cook looks more like an indictment of Murray, who has barely gotten on the field this year. Even with Cook going down and him being healthy, he's barely picking up 30% of the snaps.

[Plank]

Yeah, we just have to be careful with our evaluations of high athletic profile guys, .. get a good athletic profile around here and people are trading OBJ for him ..

I was listening to the wobcast (vikings podcast) before the season and they were in disbelief how many people were touting McKinnon as the next big thing.. they were very confused by his hype ... told their listeners to just 'stop it.' heh.

[joeylitz]

Honest question, how many people who are judging McKinnon from his 2016 season stats watched the Vikings? If you watched them and didn't think he was good, fine. Not what I saw, but it's your opinion. If you are judging him based on 3.4, you should dig a little deeper. Maybe look into yards before contact, for starters. Also consider he was playing through an injury that would typically have probably put him on the sidelines to rehab, but the Vikings were too injury riddled to allow him the recovery time.
It's very easy to say: 3rd round! 3.4! They replaced him! It's not the best analysis, but sure, go with it.

I drafted McKinnon and have been holding out hope for three years. I never watch the Vikings so I don't know exactly why he didn't produce in those three years but I do see the box scores and I know some things for sure:
1) Matt Asiata out produced him regardless of offensive line woes
2) McKinnon never earned significant playing time on his own
3) when he got significant playing time (when AP got hurt for example), he failed to consistently produce into a relevant fantasy player
4) the Vikings brought in two RBs this offseason

IMO, his fantasy outlook is not very bright - this year and beyond.
Sometimes it is that simple

[Slackalacker]

I'm banking on another big game to ship him out for any sort of pick

[lukkynumber13]

I was in trade talks with a couple owners today, for team 2 in sig. I couldn't get more than Higbee plus a late pick for him, so I'll definitely hold. He's a nice safety net of depth this season for me, I'll probably spot start him at least once or twice and I know he'll get me double digit touches including some receptions. I would sell for a 2nd, or a 3rd plus a piece.

[Novacane]

Yeah, we just have to be careful with our evaluations of high athletic profile guys, .. get a good athletic profile around here and people are trading OBJ for him ..

I was listening to the wobcast (vikings podcast) before the season and they were in disbelief how many people were touting McKinnon as the next big thing.. they were very confused by his hype ... told their listeners to just 'stop it.' heh.

I traded McKinnon for OBJ and a first in 2014 before OBJ’s breakout. True story.

[ericanadian]

Honest question, how many people who are judging McKinnon from his 2016 season stats watched the Vikings? If you watched them and didn't think he was good, fine. Not what I saw, but it's your opinion. If you are judging him based on 3.4, you should dig a little deeper. Maybe look into yards before contact, for starters. Also consider he was playing through an injury that would typically have probably put him on the sidelines to rehab, but the Vikings were too injury riddled to allow him the recovery time.
It's very easy to say: 3rd round! 3.4! They replaced him! It's not the best analysis, but sure, go with it.

I drafted McKinnon and have been holding out hope for three years. I never watch the Vikings so I don't know exactly why he didn't produce in those three years but I do see the box scores and I know some things for sure:
1) Matt Asiata out produced him regardless of offensive line woes
2) McKinnon never earned significant playing time on his own
3) when he got significant playing time (when AP got hurt for example), he failed to consistently produce into a relevant fantasy player
4) the Vikings brought in two RBs this offseason

IMO, his fantasy outlook is not very bright - this year and beyond.
Sometimes it is that simple

For point one, by what measure? McKinnon had more total yards and ypc than Asiata for the last two years.

[DinoDynasty]

Yeah, we just have to be careful with our evaluations of high athletic profile guys, .. get a good athletic profile around here and people are trading OBJ for him ..

I was listening to the wobcast (vikings podcast) before the season and they were in disbelief how many people were touting McKinnon as the next big thing.. they were very confused by his hype ... told their listeners to just 'stop it.' heh.

I traded McKinnon for OBJ and a first in 2014 before OBJ’s breakout. True story.

[Fezzik]

I've always been a fan. I'll admit being influenced by athletic measurables, and always have been. Call me crazy, I like the strongest and fastest guys on my team because I think they can score a lot of fantasy points.

My realistic hope for McKinnon is that he shows well for the rest of the year (would love RB2 numbers for rest of the season, can even be a PPR back end RB1 in my opinion) and as a free agent he finds a home where he earns the passing downs and a large(r) share of the early down work. It is definitely now or never though.

It's revisionist to say he's never produced, by the way. On a per carry basis, he did great in 2014 when AP was out, just the purple sloth Asiata got the goal line work. AP came back and he was relegated to a COP back in 2015. Nobody did anything for the Vikings out of the backfield last year behind that offensive line made up of radio contest winners. Cook is an excellent back and earned the lions' share on his own merit, but that doesn't make McK a bad player.

For the "he's not big enough" crowd, he's still the same size (plus or minus 3 lbs) as MGD, Ray Rice, Tiki Barber.

I'm not saying pay a ton for the guy (though I advocated paying a late first for him as late as last year) but I am saying I still have faith in the player. There's maybe 11 or 12 bell cow backs in the league, and then you get the next tier that are efficient on timeshares. That's where I think McK can fit in.

The bellcows: Bell, Elliot, DJ, Gurley, Hunt, Fournette, Freeman, Gordon, Cook (for the argument), Ayaji, Miller, Howard (looking like a timeshare though)...

I'm betting on the talent. I still think he has it. My $.02

[joeylitz]

Honest question, how many people who are judging McKinnon from his 2016 season stats watched the Vikings? If you watched them and didn't think he was good, fine. Not what I saw, but it's your opinion. If you are judging him based on 3.4, you should dig a little deeper. Maybe look into yards before contact, for starters. Also consider he was playing through an injury that would typically have probably put him on the sidelines to rehab, but the Vikings were too injury riddled to allow him the recovery time.
It's very easy to say: 3rd round! 3.4! They replaced him! It's not the best analysis, but sure, go with it.

I drafted McKinnon and have been holding out hope for three years. I never watch the Vikings so I don't know exactly why he didn't produce in those three years but I do see the box scores and I know some things for sure:
1) Matt Asiata out produced him regardless of offensive line woes
2) McKinnon never earned significant playing time on his own
3) when he got significant playing time (when AP got hurt for example), he failed to consistently produce into a relevant fantasy player
4) the Vikings brought in two RBs this offseason

IMO, his fantasy outlook is not very bright - this year and beyond.
Sometimes it is that simple

For point one, by what measure? McKinnon had more total yards and ypc than Asiata for the last two years.

So this is all about fantasy football for me and therefore fantasy points is how I measure the productivity of my players. So, things like ypc are interesting and will, at times, inform my decision-making. But stats like that are not often directly relevant to fantasy scoring.

With that said, I didn't look at stats when I wrote my original post. I owned both players and, as an owner, you just know. But, to better address your question, I went into my team and looked at 2016 - just Weeks 1-16 as those are the only fantasy relevant weeks (PPR).

Asiata: 125 points
McKinnon: 122.4 points

Not much of a difference, however it is important to note a couple of things:
1) From weeks 4-16, Asiata generally could get you 9-10 points. Sometimes more...sometimes less. If you needed a flex, you knew what you were getting. There was some consistency there. He also scored a TD in 4/5 games from Weeks 10-14, so there was reason to get him into your lineup.
2) From weeks 4-11, McKinnon's fantasy results were abysmal. He scored 1 TD and had 1 game where you would have regretted using him (week 4). But his inconsistency meant he would never have been in your lineup. During those weeks, you would have expected to get 6 points at best.
3) Week 12, McKinnon had a decent game (10.6 points) but by then you can't trust him. You've seen him fail for 11 weeks.
4) Week 13, McKinnon had a great game (16.5 points)! But since you couldn't trust him, you didn't play him.
5) Weeks 14-16, McKinnon showed consistency and the ability to get fantasy points earning 12.9, 16.1, and 13.5. But, of course I didn't play him because it was the fantasy playoffs and I wasn't going to trust him with my championship.

[I guess that makes my points 2 and 3 in the OP false statements. It's probably better to say that he didn't not do those things until Week 12 of his 3rd year in the NFL]

So...that's how I look at it. As a fantasy owner, I simply could not start McKinnon last year. I'm sure you've been playing long enough to know what I mean.

Comparing Asiata and McKinnon in 2015 isn't worth it, IMO. Neither were fantasy relevant.

In 2014 Asiata clearly was the better fantasy option. AP was out for the season and both players had a chance to seize the starting role. McKinnon played 12 games and scored 0 TDs. He finished with 94 fantasy points. Asiata played 16 fantasy games, scoring 10 TDs and 181.4 fantasy points

So, Asiata was more valuable for me in 2014 & 2016.
I suppose I could be more optimistic about McKinnon given how strongly he finished last year, but given the circumstances, I'm not.

Did I convince you?

[skip]

I'll admit being influenced by athletic measurables, and always have been. Call me crazy, I like the strongest and fastest guys on my team because I think they can score a lot of fantasy points.

While I'm not completely dismissive of measurables and athleticism, dynasty owners in particular are guilty almost to a fault of putting far too much emphasis on them. It's why a player like Moncrief gets so much love despite everything he's done being just meh. Or if DGB gets a workout, someone will add him. I prefer to put much more emphasis on how a player actually looks with the football in hand.

Going back to Moncrief for a minute, owners then take the next step to look for excuses when an athletic player isn't performing. He's hurt. Someone else is hurt. Or whatever. If a player truly is an ascendant talent, they will find ways to produce. I see a number of excuses being made on why McKinnon didn't perform last season that seem dismissive of the biggest factor... McKinnon. Maybe at the end of the day he's just not as good as some people want to make him out to be.

People can make their excuses all they wish, but the Vikings had no intention of being in a position where they'd be starting McKinnon again this season. He was a failure a year ago and gave them no reason to believe he could be a primary ball carrier. It's why they added Murray and why they drafted Cook. Anyone thinking otherwise is just deliberately ignoring facts.

Going one more step, it seems that there is a presumption that the job will now be McKinnon's. I wouldn't be overconfident in that. Murray could just as well lead the backfield this coming week and the rest of the year.

None of us know the future even if we want to pretend to. McKinnon may perform just fine over the rest of the season. He also could turn into a complete dud this weekend. Those that like him will no doubt invest in him. That won't be me. In shallower leagues he was probably in the wire and worth a waiver pickup. In deeper leagues where owned no doubt his owners would just want far too much.

I view McKinnon now the exact same way I did a year ago. He's a backup level talent thrust into (possibly) a starting role. If he performs well, the astute owner would be wise to sell.

[DLF3000]

I held for since this offseason (trade throw-in), gave up earlier this year. Still don't really care.

Don't trust that Vikings backfield this year, think his last game was overrated, and he quickly swings towards worthless next year when the rook is back.

[joeylitz]

I'll admit being influenced by athletic measurables, and always have been. Call me crazy, I like the strongest and fastest guys on my team because I think they can score a lot of fantasy points.

I view McKinnon now the exact same way I did a year ago. He's a backup level talent thrust into (possibly) a starting role. If he performs well, the astute owner would be wise to sell.

Agreed. I would love to sell him. Unfortunately, I'm in a position (with T. Montgomery's future status/role uncertain) where I can't sell him because he looks like he might now be my starting flex, due to the role he has been thrust into. I need to watch how all of this plays out and by then, I may have missed getting max value for him.

[Slackalacker]

I just sold Him for Jordan Matthews and will have absolutely no trouble sleeping tonight.

[Cameron Giles]

I just sold Him for Jordan Matthews and will have absolutely no trouble sleeping tonight.

I would've waited to see if there's an uptick in value than settle for Matthews.