OBJ - Sell high candidate???

[BeeziBad]

I just watched a piece on cbs saying Odell is a great sell high candidate to reap potential fantasy playoff benefits. There argument was that the team is looking horrible and he seems to come up with a new injury every other week. It’s only a matter of time before something makes him miss time, on top of them eventually giving up the season. It all kinda made sense to me. I know this is more geared towards redraft, but do you think it possibly pertains to dynasty as well? Would you sell high on obj and if so, what would you aim for?

I’m not selling, just trying to spark conversation which is why I didn’t post in advice...

[Valhalla]

Maybe the Giants will trade him for a boatload...
They could use a bunch of pick wealth to improve that line...improve that RB situation...improve that QB depth chart situation...
He's entering contract discussion time, no? Maybe they don't want to pay him the fortune he wants (I think he has said publicly he believes he deserves the highest paying contract in the NFL, which will make for very difficult negotiations).
Who could they possibly trade him to? Just a thought.

[Reljac]

Not sure I follow on the playoff benefits... Beckham has ++ matchups against Philly and Dallas in weeks 14 & 15 this year. Sure Manning is getting older, but I guess you'd have to be getting a other elites in return to truly merit the value. '

Now Beckham's week 16 matchup is disappointing in that he will likely draw patrick peterson, but you shouldn't manage your teams based on week 16 matchups.

[nathanq42]

I don't think so, he produces so consistently and he is so explosive that he could produce anywhere. His hands are so good he can catch almost anything that goes his way, he is so good at route running that he can always get open, he is so explosive and he is so good at creating YAC he can take a slant or screen, or out route to the house on any play, he is such a tremendous competitor that he plays through a dislocated finger and he never gives up, works outstandingly hard at getting better. He has had 2 injuries now for the whole season (Ankle sprain from pre season, dislocated finger from last week). He has never had less than 1300 yards and 10 TDs in a season, including his rookie season when he missed a third of the season, and he is only 24 years old. So if traditionally prime playing age is ~25 - ~30 OBJ will revolutionary in a couple years. If I am selling it would have to be an outrageous overpay, to the point where if it happens I would feel bad gutting a guys team so bad.

[BeeziBad]

I don't think so, he produces so consistently and he is so explosive that he could produce anywhere. His hands are so good he can catch almost anything that goes his way, he is so good at route running that he can always get open, he is so explosive and he is so good at creating YAC he can take a slant or screen, or out route to the house on any play, he is such a tremendous competitor that he plays through a dislocated finger and he never gives up, works outstandingly hard at getting better. He has had 2 injuries now for the whole season (Ankle sprain from pre season, dislocated finger from last week). He has never had less than 1300 yards and 10 TDs in a season, including his rookie season when he missed a third of the season, and he is only 24 years old. So if traditionally prime playing age is ~25 - ~30 OBJ will revolutionary in a couple years. If I am selling it would have to be an outrageous overpay, to the point where if it happens I would feel bad gutting a guys team so bad.

Sounds like you really like you some Odell. I like your argument though, his best years are potentially ahead of him which is scary...But say you’re in a rebuild and he’s your only piece, would you consider trading him for a package like dalvin cook, arob, d Henry and a first?

[Fantasyfanatic11]

Not sure I follow on the playoff benefits... Beckham has ++ matchups against Philly and Dallas in weeks 14 & 15 this year. Sure Manning is getting older, but I guess you'd have to be getting a other elites in return to truly merit the value. '

Now Beckham's week 16 matchup is disappointing in that he will likely draw patrick peterson, but you shouldn't manage your teams based on week 16 matchups.

I think what the OP meant is if his injuries linger and the Giants are out of the playoff hunt, they might shut him down for the rest of the year which will make him unavailable for fantasy playoffs.

So he's saying sell high now in case that happens. But there's no chance I sell him in dynasty. This thinking would apply to redraft only IMO

[nathanq42]

I don't think so, he produces so consistently and he is so explosive that he could produce anywhere. His hands are so good he can catch almost anything that goes his way, he is so good at route running that he can always get open, he is so explosive and he is so good at creating YAC he can take a slant or screen, or out route to the house on any play, he is such a tremendous competitor that he plays through a dislocated finger and he never gives up, works outstandingly hard at getting better. He has had 2 injuries now for the whole season (Ankle sprain from pre season, dislocated finger from last week). He has never had less than 1300 yards and 10 TDs in a season, including his rookie season when he missed a third of the season, and he is only 24 years old. So if traditionally prime playing age is ~25 - ~30 OBJ will revolutionary in a couple years. If I am selling it would have to be an outrageous overpay, to the point where if it happens I would feel bad gutting a guys team so bad.

Sounds like you really like you some Odell. I like your argument though, his best years are potentially ahead of him which is scary...But say you’re in a rebuild and he’s your only piece, would you consider trading him for a package like dalvin cook, arob, d Henry and a first?

Yeah I would definitely consider that haul if I was in a rebuild. But the thing that would give me pause is the uncertainty around all of those guys.

Henry - Potential beast, very similar to Fournette, but hasn't been a starter in the NFL yet, but has shown pretty well in his limited role
Dalvin Cook - Looked great as a rookie, but an ACL gives me pause regardless of the recent recovery trend
Arob - One great season followed by a mediocre one (Bortles was a large part of the problem), then an ACL tear (See Dalvin Cook)
First - Depends on where it is likely going to fall and how the draft class is, top 3 in the 2015 draft, sign me up, middle of the pack in the 2016 draft not so much

The good thing about Odell in a rebuild is that he is 100% locked to slay the league for around a decade. BUT even with the points against the players above I would 85% do it just because even if two of them hit like they are supposed to that is more points per week than just Odell can offer on his own (Plus they are all young). If all four hit, my god that would be huge for a rebuild.

But I would think long and hard about it and have to do a lot of research before I execute any move of Odell. (Watch film/tape on all of the players involved, scout the rookie class, assess the potential pick placement)

I have a feeling great discussion will be had in this thread.

[Reljac]

I think what the OP meant is if his injuries linger and the Giants are out of the playoff hunt, they might shut him down for the rest of the year which will make him unavailable for fantasy playoffs.

So he's saying sell high now in case that happens. But there's no chance I sell him in dynasty. This thinking would apply to redraft only IMO

I see, I wasn't following that argument, since he's not on the injury report this week. Is it the dislocated finger their worried about? Michael Crabtree dislocated his twice last year in route to one of his best seasons.

[BeeziBad]

I don't think so, he produces so consistently and he is so explosive that he could produce anywhere. His hands are so good he can catch almost anything that goes his way, he is so good at route running that he can always get open, he is so explosive and he is so good at creating YAC he can take a slant or screen, or out route to the house on any play, he is such a tremendous competitor that he plays through a dislocated finger and he never gives up, works outstandingly hard at getting better. He has had 2 injuries now for the whole season (Ankle sprain from pre season, dislocated finger from last week). He has never had less than 1300 yards and 10 TDs in a season, including his rookie season when he missed a third of the season, and he is only 24 years old. So if traditionally prime playing age is ~25 - ~30 OBJ will revolutionary in a couple years. If I am selling it would have to be an outrageous overpay, to the point where if it happens I would feel bad gutting a guys team so bad.

Sounds like you really like you some Odell. I like your argument though, his best years are potentially ahead of him which is scary...But say you’re in a rebuild and he’s your only piece, would you consider trading him for a package like dalvin cook, arob, d Henry and a first?

Yeah I would definitely consider that haul if I was in a rebuild. But the thing that would give me pause is the uncertainty around all of those guys.

Henry - Potential beast, very similar to Fournette, but hasn't been a starter in the NFL yet, but has shown pretty well in his limited role
Dalvin Cook - Looked great as a rookie, but an ACL gives me pause regardless of the recent recovery trend
Arob - One great season followed by a mediocre one (Bortles was a large part of the problem), then an ACL tear (See Dalvin Cook)
First - Depends on where it is likely going to fall and how the draft class is, top 3 in the 2015 draft, sign me up, middle of the pack in the 2016 draft not so much

The good thing about Odell in a rebuild is that he is 100% locked to slay the league for around a decade. BUT even with the points against the players above I would 85% do it just because even if two of them hit like they are supposed to that is more points per week than just Odell can offer on his own (Plus they are all young). If all four hit, my god that would be huge for a rebuild.

But I would think long and hard about it and have to do a lot of research before I execute any move of Odell. (Watch film/tape on all of the players involved, scout the rookie class, assess the potential pick placement)

I have a feeling great discussion will be had in this thread.

Isn’t that the risk any rebuild takes? Hoping young guys hit. Of course in a rebuild, Odell is one of best guys to own. But you’re running with squad with guys like rivers, goo, gore, fitz...you may have no choice but to move him. I like your mindset though, I’m also the type of guy that does extensive research and watches game film before I move guys, which is what made it hard for me to move Sammy earlier this year. Everything about him says stud, but that’s another conversation lol.

Do you think there is any scenario where a contender would move Odell?

[BeeziBad]

I think what the OP meant is if his injuries linger and the Giants are out of the playoff hunt, they might shut him down for the rest of the year which will make him unavailable for fantasy playoffs.

So he's saying sell high now in case that happens. But there's no chance I sell him in dynasty. This thinking would apply to redraft only IMO

I see, I wasn't following that argument, since he's not on the injury report this week. Is it the dislocated finger their worried about? Michael Crabtree dislocated his twice last year in route to one of his best seasons.

Not the finger specifically, but the fact that we’re 4 games in and there is already 2 reported injuries and missed time, plus he’s on an 0-4 team that’s poised to start rebuilding itself.

[cweds]

I think trading a stud like OBJ depends a lot on your league's starting requirements. If you played in a shallow league where say you only had 1RB/1WR/2FLEX, studs have significantly more value than if you're playing in a 2RB/2WR/3FLEX league where you require a deep starting lineup.

[nathanq42]

Isn’t that the risk any rebuild takes? Hoping young guys hit. Of course in a rebuild, Odell is one of best guys to own. But you’re running with squad with guys like rivers, goo, gore, fitz...you may have no choice but to move him. I like your mindset though, I’m also the type of guy that does extensive research and watches game film before I move guys, which is what made it hard for me to move Sammy earlier this year. Everything about him says stud, but that’s another conversation lol.

Do you think there is any scenario where a contender would move Odell?

Yeah for sure the risk is part of rebuilding, I'd 100% do it if you swapped Fournette for Cook though just for that 1 certain guy that will be for sure a beast.

If I were to move Odell as a contender it would have to be filling a major positional need (Competitive advantage, more to come later, its and econ thing) and have long term upside.

So in a QRRWWFT PPR format with the following team make up so I'll put single players but I really mean ball park around these guys

Brees
Crow
Abdullah
Evans
OBJ
Dez
Jimmy Graham

Bench
DT
I would strongly consider moving OBJ Graham and a late second for Freeman and Gronk.

Reason being, while I much prefer OBJ to Freeman, I prefer Gronk to Graham, and this will maximize my points, and I will still have a very bright future.

The way Competitive advantages work is that lets say theoretical weekly scores are static and they are as follows
OBJ - 20
DT - 15
Freeman - 16
Crow - 10
Graham - 13
Gronk - 15
By trading OBJ and slotting in DT in his absence, Gronk for Graham, and Freeman in for Crow you get

46 points per week vs 43 by not making the move.

While presumably losing value on the trade, you get a higher point total per week out of your guys for possibly multiple years.

[Concept Coop]

Reason being, while I much prefer OBJ to Freeman, I prefer Gronk to Graham, and this will maximize my points, and I will still have a very bright future.

In redraft this makes sense, but not in dynasty, IMO. How many more productive seasons are we projecting for Gronk? His QB is 40 and these injuries will eventually catch up to him. He's not even the same guy he was a couple years ago, outside of the redzone. OBJ, on the other hand, is the most productive WR in history through 3 seasons and is only 24 years old. And it's not like he was ever in a great situation. He might have a down year like Hopkins did, but he wouldn't need much of a rebound to be right back where he was last season. He's the safest asset in the hobby.

[nathanq42]

Reason being, while I much prefer OBJ to Freeman, I prefer Gronk to Graham, and this will maximize my points, and I will still have a very bright future.

In redraft this makes sense, but not in dynasty, IMO. How many more productive seasons are we projecting for Gronk? His QB is 40 and these injuries will eventually catch up to him. He's not even the same guy he was a couple years ago, outside of the redzone. OBJ, on the other hand, is the most productive WR in history through 3 seasons and is only 24 years old. And it's not like he was ever in a great situation. He might have a down year like Hopkins did, but he wouldn't need much of a rebound to be right back where he was last season. He's the safest asset in the hobby.

Yeah I see what youre saying, I guess you and I have differing views of how Gronk will age, totally fair. In that case we could switch Gronk with Kelce and have basically the same result. Lost value, higher points for multiple years. I guess I should have put this in my initial post is that this would be assuming there is no market at all for DT/Dez, so OBJ would have to be the moving part. Not a perfect example but I wouldnt be surprised to see this go down in a really RB focused league (like mine), or even a standard league (no PPR).

[Concept Coop]

I think what the OP meant is if his injuries linger and the Giants are out of the playoff hunt, they might shut him down for the rest of the year which will make him unavailable for fantasy playoffs.

So he's saying sell high now in case that happens. But there's no chance I sell him in dynasty. This thinking would apply to redraft only IMO

I see, I wasn't following that argument, since he's not on the injury report this week. Is it the dislocated finger their worried about? Michael Crabtree dislocated his twice last year in route to one of his best seasons.

Not the finger specifically, but the fact that we’re 4 games in and there is already 2 reported injuries and missed time, plus he’s on an 0-4 team that’s poised to start rebuilding itself.

I'm not sure I'm following. Are you saying the Giants will shut down OBJ to tank? Or that his finger will lead to more injuries this season? Or are you making a dynasty argument--that when Eli goes it will hurt OBJ's value?

The Giants aren't shutting OBJ down unless a major injury forces them to, even if they're 0-15.

As for dynasty, the Giants getting high draft picks will be good for OBJ moving forward. They already have some young offensive talent in Engram and Shepard. An improvment along the line and a RB will do wonders. And besides, it's not like he's been in an ideal situation; he doesn't need one to put up huge numbers.

I just don't see ANY logic in worrying about OBJ's value moving forward. As I said above, he's the safest single assest in the dynasty format.