Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

[Dynasty DeLorean]

His college resume is astounding, with excellent size and speed, plus great NFl production. And he's young. Why is this guy's price low again?

He's not as good as his resume would suggest. It's not to say he can't be productive... I bet if he switched places with Michael Thomas we'd think differently about both players. But to quote someone who said something, "it is what it is."

Some of these "advanced analytics" are good to help give added perspective on players. Some of these AAs amount to little more than another person's opinion cloaked as data.

When someone starts backing their opinion of a player (for good or bad) and citing some of these AAs as fact, then I just stop reading.

I agree. It's like when Matt Harmon was touting Tyler Lockett as the next big thing and Devonte Parker as this giant bust based on his reception perception data. You need to look at the bigger picture, you can't just take one data point and run with it.

[Jfever]

Big, slow and not physical enough. He's had golden opportunities since entering the league and he hasn't done much.

Golden opportunities? Hmm. I'd disagree wholeheartedly with that. I'd say he's been unlucky.

[Jfever]

(RotoWire) Matthews (thumb) needs surgery and is expected to miss at least a month, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 reports.

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Preface: this trade is not good for every team.

If you want to buy at a low point, this may be it. Matthews gets beaten on in the fantasy community because his box scores have not impressed the way several of his 2014 classmates have. Now that he is missing at least a month his owners may be looking to get out. This could be a very good value play, as Matthews may be under appreciated.

It may be possible to buy Matthews for a player that has current production with little upside, such as Garcon. If your team is in a position to lose that sort of production now, Matthews has the potential to pay dividends in 2018 (possibly late 2017). His troubled start in the NFL:

His rookie year:
- Head coach was Chip Kelly
- QBs were: Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles
- 67 receptions on 103 targets for 872 yards and 8 TDs
Very good numbers for a rookie WR.

His 2nd year:
- Chip Kelly destroyed the team (and was fired week 15)
- Bradford was QB, decent talent but 1st year in system and 1st year with the players.
- 85 receptions on 128 targets for 997 yards and 8 TDs.
Good production for 2nd year player with his 3rd QB.

His 3rd year:
- Doug Pederson brings a new offense to the team.
- Carson Wentz is a rookie QB, and played like a rookie after the first 4 games.
- 73 receptions on 116 targets for 804 yards and 3 TDs (14 games)
Played with a hand injury. Also, not a good fit for new offense.

His 4th year:
- Sean McDemott, new team, new coach, new system.
- Tyrod Taylor at QB.
He was traded to the Bills with only a few weeks left before week 1. He then suffered a chip fracture of his sternum and could not practice or build chemistry with Tyrod. He now has broken his thumb and will miss several more critical weeks.

The Upside Play:
The pre-season story was that the Bills were going to suffer through a terrible season. They traded away Sammy Watkins and made some other moves very late in the off-season that suggested this. It is now looking like the team's new HC and GM may know a few things about football. If that is true, then Matthews may have a bright future in Buffalo and possibly produce as a fantasy WR2.

The Downside Risk:
Maybe he continues to break bones.
Maybe the Bills bring in a rookie QB in 2018, delaying any real improvement in the passing game production until 2019+.
Maybe Matthews gets moved to another team after 2017 and ... ???

At the very least, Jordan Matthews should not be clogging up a roster spot for very long.

Rubber duck laid it all out early on in this thread. Considering the situations offensively that he's been in coupled with the few random injuries he's had and played through, not sure how one would call these "golden opportunities'. It isn't as if he's ever had a stable offensive system or established coaching staff or qb around him.

[Reljac]

I think it depends on your measuring stick, if you play in half ppr or non-ppr and drafted this guy as a future potential WR1-2, you are likely to be disappointed. He appears to be a 75-80 reception 800-900 yard guy who will score 5 or so TDs.

He's a slot chain mover, ok red zone target. He's 4 years into his career. If you can get him south of WR3 value currently, seems like a decent one to take a shot on. If his talent truly stood out, I doubt the Eagles would've sent him away, to keep Torrey Smith and Agholar instead.

Sidenote, he's in final year of his rookie contract... next year he will either be back in the lackluster Bills pass offense... or learning his 4th new offensive scheme.

[btv802]

Would anybody sell Duke Johnson to acquire him at this point? My team is 0-4 and I'm generally open to taking on injured players from legit contenders if the deal makes sense.

I did this deal in the end.

[lukkynumber13]

I think it depends on your measuring stick, if you play in half ppr or non-ppr and drafted this guy as a future potential WR1-2, you are likely to be disappointed. He appears to be a 75-80 reception 800-900 yard guy who will score 5 or so TDs.

He's a slot chain mover, ok red zone target. He's 4 years into his career. If you can get him south of WR3 value currently, seems like a decent one to take a shot on.

I agree with these points

[joshb]

He is an UFA after this season. So Matthews could choose his own situation for 2018.

Maybe it's a good thing (for his dynasty value) that he got injured then...
The Bills won't want to extend him in-season here when it's a season of injury. The injury raises his chances of getting on a roster with a more supportive QB.
Maybe he'll go to the Packers

Packers typically don't pay FA WR's...in fact they usually lose FA WR's because they don't pay

Eh, disagree. They've extended Nelson twice and Cobb once. They lost Jennings, but offered him roughly the same contract that Minnesota did. They let James Jones go, but he wasn't exactly a top talent when he left, and that was after his second contract as well. They kept Driver until he was ancient. I would say their lack of FA WR's is mostly due to their solid drafting at the position.

That said, I don't think Matthews would fit into their plan. They'll most likely re-sign Adams, keep Cobb, Nelson for another year or two, and still have younger talent like Allison and Davis. Next two years they'll draft at least one more upper to mid level WR as well.

[djeternal2]

I think it depends on your measuring stick, if you play in half ppr or non-ppr and drafted this guy as a future potential WR1-2, you are likely to be disappointed. He appears to be a 75-80 reception 800-900 yard guy who will score 5 or so TDs.

He's a slot chain mover, ok red zone target. He's 4 years into his career. If you can get him south of WR3 value currently, seems like a decent one to take a shot on. If his talent truly stood out, I doubt the Eagles would've sent him away, to keep Torrey Smith and Agholar instead.

Sidenote, he's in final year of his rookie contract... next year he will either be back in the lackluster Bills pass offense... or learning his 4th new offensive scheme.

If you recall the trade the Iggles desperately needed CB help. I don't think it was necessarily that the Iggles thought Smith & Agholor were/are better. It was probably more that it took JMatt & a 18 3rd to get the CB help they needed.

[Oddball456]

Put on IR today.

Is 2017 a lost season for him? Expect him to be with another team in 2018? Good bounce back candidate or have we seem his best already?

[rubber_duck]

His season was over before it ever began. The chest injury that occurred days after landing on the Bills prevented him from getting any chemistry going. His bad knee didn't help either. It had to be injuries and lack of chemistry this year. There is no way that Zay Jones and his 1/3 catch rate prevented Matthews from being the leading receiver in Buffalo.

We may have seen his best already, though, as he may not get another chance to be a team's #1 receiver.

Does anyone have information on what is wrong with his knee?

[Jason3123]

Put on IR today.

Is 2017 a lost season for him? Expect him to be with another team in 2018? Good bounce back candidate or have we seem his best already?

All depends where he ends up. I'm a little worried about his knee as it's now plagued him for 2 seasons. I imagine he'll be a quieter signing this off-season and probably pretty affordable after this last year, and considering Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins and more will all be on the market, he shouldn't be signing anywhere as a #1, so I could see him sliding in somewhere on the cheap.

[Valhalla]

Put on IR today.

Is 2017 a lost season for him? Expect him to be with another team in 2018? Good bounce back candidate or have we seem his best already?

All depends where he ends up. I'm a little worried about his knee as it's now plagued him for 2 seasons. I imagine he'll be a quieter signing this off-season and probably pretty affordable after this last year, and considering Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins and more will all be on the market, he shouldn't be signing anywhere as a #1, so I could see him sliding in somewhere on the cheap.

My thoughts as well.

[Generic Username]

Obligatory "to the Pats! Buy now! WHAARLGARBL!"

[lukkynumber13]

Put on IR today.

Is 2017 a lost season for him? Expect him to be with another team in 2018? Good bounce back candidate or have we seem his best already?

All depends where he ends up. I'm a little worried about his knee as it's now plagued him for 2 seasons. I imagine he'll be a quieter signing this off-season and probably pretty affordable after this last year, and considering Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins and more will all be on the market, he shouldn't be signing anywhere as a #1, so I could see him sliding in somewhere on the cheap.

My thoughts as well.

Yup he's going to be somewhere between Brian Hartline signing in Cleveland a couple years ago/Robert woods signing in LA this year, or Kamar Aiken signing in Indy this year (on the low end).

I'll admit it looks gloomy for his future right now, but he's still worth a stash if you can buy him cheap (maybe snag him for a 3rd from a panicked owner??)

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, he's clearly been dealing with a number of injuries this season. So, essentially a lost year. But, I remain firmly of the idea that Matthews is what he is: A good complimentary WR and not a player you feed high volume to.

I think Matthews would be a great fit on the Saints, in the big slot role.