Sammy Watkins Eyeball Test

[nathanq42]

Hi ladies and gents, I think this is a much needed thread.

Watkins was the guy to get from the 2014 class back in the day. Supremely talented, Great hands catcher, fast, shifty, explosive, big play potential on any play. Basically he was supposed to be OBJ before OBJ was OBJ. He played for the Ryan brothers in Buffalo (Yuck) and didn't do much, was hampered by injuries. Now he is in LAR with a up and coming QB, and on a team that is putting up tonnes of points so far.

But Sammy Watkins hasn't done much outside of one huge game. Heck, he has barely gotten any targets!

One questions for the people that have watched the games.

Has Sammy Watkins played better than his box score suggests? Has he been getting open consistently? Does he look as fast as he did in college? Is it a chemistry/game plan issue? Explanation for why the Rams have gone from offensive wasteland to dynamite, but Sammy has been left behind?

And most important of all, is he worth an investment considering he is a FA after this year?

Thank you all in advance!

[Cameron Giles]

Watkins looks good. I haven't noticed a change in talent or skill and he seems over the foot issue that plagued him.

Sean McVay's offense isn't exactly a "featured WR" offense. It features everyone. The object is to throw to the first open read, and not necessarily funnel it to someone. The top targets align with that:

Gurley: 25 (6.25 per) - 100 pace
Woods: 22 (5.5 per) - 88 pace
Kupp: 21 (5.25 per) - 84 pace
Watkins: 16 (4.00 per) - 64 pace

Watkins may be getting the short end for now, but I would guess that Gurley's targets come down a little bit. McVay's offense is really good at taking what the defense concedes, creating open space quickly and not being predictable. It's very good at eliminating low percentage passes.

There will definitely be variation for each WR this season, but I am surprised that they made a CLEAR effort to get Tavon Austin involved against Dallas and for the most part ignored Watkins. That's something that isn't typical of what McVay has done so far for the offense. It almost looked like they were trying to showcast Tavon for trade value. Regardless, it was weird.

[BigBawseRoss]

Sammy will eventually speak up about his usage and then he will get fed. if not he will make sure he is somewhere else next season. I think hes still a fine buy and showed week 3 that he still can perform at a high level

[Servo]

I want to say that he is getting open but you should obviously see that LAR is going with the hot-hand approach when it comes to feeding someone...we've seen Woods boom and disappear, Watkins boom and disappear, Kupp boom and disappear.

Right now, the only constant that has remained is Gurley, who looks great this year out of the backfield.

Tough to project but one of the best things that you can ask for is to have players that are a part of a legitimate scoring offense. LA left a lot of points on the table versus Dallas (7 FGs) let us not forget that.

[Plank]

Nice post Cameron ..

I agree as teams have to worry about Gurley, we should start to see his use increase .. I felt was very promising that Goff just threw it up to him in W3 vs SF. When I see plays like that I get excited because that is how trust is built (I was like hell yes, for Goff and Watkins, for Goff it was that he is willing to trust a WR and throw it in the first place, for Watkins, is that he caught a deep 50/50 ball ..)

In W4, I expected more of an inside game, mainly because I felt the Rams would be worried about Demarcus Lawrence on the RT Havenstein and the outside corners for DAL have actually been playing pretty well, so I felt they would look more inside to Kupp, TE's, and underneath crossers ..

I think with Watkins you have to determine the outside CB play quality of the opposing defense, the strength of the pass rush from the right side (ie, Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter, Von Miller, forget about it), and the tendency of a team to keep 7 or 8 in the box to stop Gurley ..

So for now, he's a bit of a match-up guy, but as teams commit to stopping Gurley, we should see his use really start to climb, just be patient I say .. evaluate the inside game (passes to RB, TE, and Slot WR) vs the Outside CB's and pass rush ..

There is one play I'm really looking for the Rams and that's a 4 WR set with a back or TE out wide vs zone, matching Watkins inside with a LB with S help .. can't wait for that..

[mratlanta]

I think the main issue is that Sammy is still developing chemistry with Goff. He wasn't with him for most of the pre-season and QBs/WRs don't usually instantly click. He's the best receiver on the team by far and the cream always rises to the top. That being said, he's still an injury waiting to happen.

[pvillebiker]

Great framing of a question on a lot of Sammy investor's minds.

Ignore the week 4 game, as any WR's first week back from concussion should be thrown out. The week 3 breakout is the turn around point for the Sammy / Goff chemistry the way I see it. Remember, Goff is still a young developing QB in spite of the rush to overweight his early season success. As Goff develops, it will increasingly become the Sammy show. It's just too obvious he's their best receiving option. As Goff's ability to get him the ball grows, so will Sammy's production. Now that will take time obviously. More than just this season. However, I fully expect at least something like 70, 1,000, 10 TD's this year. Will probably be more hit or miss, Brandin Cooks style, with an improving floor and the blow ups every 3 or 4 games. Next year will be awesome, assuming health of both Goff & Sammy.

[saw061600]

He looked good in the 2 games I had a chance to watch; think he passes the eyeball test. Maybe more important, offers that are still of the buy-low variety have started to come in where I have shares. That means he's passing the test for other owners too; even after the dud week 4.

[Cameron Giles]

I think the main issue is that Sammy is still developing chemistry with Goff. He wasn't with him for most of the pre-season and QBs/WRs don't usually instantly click. He's the best receiver on the team by far and the cream always rises to the top. That being said, he's still an injury waiting to happen.

Saw this on Twitter:

"On Higbee's 29-yard reception in 1st Q, pre-snap confusion led Sammy Watkins to streak wide open on opp. side of field. #Cowboys got lucky"

Chemistry is one thing, but Goff definitely needs to grow at reading defenses as well. Sometimes he does have a habit of staring/waiting for the first read to open instead of reading the entire field.

[Jaguars8907]

Sammy will eventually speak up about his usage and then he will get fed. if not he will make sure he is somewhere else next season. I think hes still a fine buy and showed week 3 that he still can perform at a high level

My thoughts exactly

[Servo]

Chemistry is one thing, but Goff definitely needs to grow at reading defenses as well. Sometimes he does have a habit of staring/waiting for the first read to open instead of reading the entire field.

I want to say I saw Watkins get really, really open on a few plays in that Cowboys game and Goff may have already looked his way or focused his attention on the opposite side of the field (don't know for certain).