The problem with Amari

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Online
User avatar
lukkynumber13
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6768
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 2:41 pm

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:37 am

Seventy5 wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:32 am
Being a lifelong Raider fan who has lived in the Bay Area my entire life, there are two things that truly baffled me in recent years: 1. The dynasty community being so high on Latavius Murray when the team was always vocal to local media about not truly believing in him (but this stuff very rarely made it's way to the mainstream media. Even all the Raider homers on here kept telling people to pump the brakes on Latavius), and 2. Amari Cooper already going top five in start ups.

I'll start off by saying I think Cooper has top five start up POTENTIAL, but I wouldn't draft him there (yet). Look at the big picture like this:

-Cooper's redraft ADP was late 2nd-early 3rd, so right off the bat we already have a large difference between where people are valuing him long-term and what people are actually expecting short-term. I'd imagine anybody investing top 4-8 overall start up resources in him (whether it be drafting or trading for him) is doing so expecting him to perform at that level, which would be a top 2-4 overall WR. BUT, in redraft, Julio, OBJ, Evans, Jordy, AJG, Cooks, MThomas, and Hilton were almost always going ahead of him (8 WRs) and in some leagues Dez, Baldwin, DeAndre as well (so let's say redrafters were investing at roughly WR10-14 prices). Where did Amari finish in WR standings week 1?...WR12...and then it's difficult to really put much weight into the distribution of the raiders passing game when you consider context: 45-20 score; a few turnovers set them off for quick and easy scores; Richard had few long plays that put the team in position to score; despite the score, Carr didn't exactly light up the stat sheet - he only threw for 230 yards. To sum this part up...I'd say he's performing about exactly where most were expecting him to this year - a low end WR1 - high end WR2 with upside for more some weeks.

-Crabtree is drastically undervalued, and has been for a while. I think the combination of his bad situation in SF and his attitude rubbing people the wrong way decreased his value. I think too often people take fantasy production and use that to determine talent, but that is only a piece of the puzzle, and Crabtree has always been more talented than his stats would suggest (similar to Fitzgerald during some of his down years...people disliking DeSean Jackson's personality...Ryan Mathews injuries making people forget the guy was actually pretty darn good when healthy...etc).

When you look at the first round of dynasty drafts, I think the biggest reason ends up going so high comes down to age: owners are faced with trying to select one player to build their franchise around for the next decade, and there aren't many options under 25. I'd imagine some people are looking at the options like:

1.01: Odell BeckhamJ Jr: proven production and only 24 years old. Slight off-field concerns personality wise, but a safe investment otherwise.
1.02: Mike Evans: Proven production, young QB, only 24 years old.
1.03: David Johnson: Maybe the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football right now, only 25 years old.
1.04: Le'Veon Bell: Proven production, only 25 years old, few long-term concerns with the contract + weed tests.
1.05: Amari Cooper: Two solid seasons to start his career, only 23 years old.

When you look at the other options like this, it's not surprising Cooper is going so high:

1.06: Antonio Brown: STUD, but, he's 29 years old, which is close to 30, which is close to old...ageists will drop his value soon
1.07: Julio Jones: STUD, but, he's 28 years old, which is two years from 30, which is close to being close to being old for dynasty players
1.08: Ezekiel Elliot: off-field concerns, suspensions looming, and he's a running back...which most dynasty drafters have tried to avoid
1.09: AJ Green: STUD, but, he's 28-29 years old, and doesn't have an elite QB + Ross/Eifert/Mixon competition
1.10: Michael Thomas: Probably a safer short-term investment production wise, but tied to Brees, so people don't know what to expect 2+ years from now (maybe they're afraid of a value drop similar to DT's after Peyton left?)
1.11: Melvin Gordon: Running back, some question if his talent matches last years production
1.12: Devontae Freeman: Running back, some question if he is THAT much better than Coleman, Shanahan left
2.01: Dez Bryant: 28, offense is built to run
2.02: TY Hilton, safe, young QB, not young/not old at 27...but people still remember his early career inconsistencies
2.03: Brandon Cooks: Tied to Brady, uncertainty 2+ years from now like Thomas, not sure how he'll fit new offense
2.04: DeAndre Hopkins: Down year, uncertainty at QB
2.05: Todd Gurley: Running back, hasn't lived up to sky-high expectations
2.06: Rob Gronkowski: injuries with a stress on plural, uncertainty at QB 2+ years from now
2.07: Sammy Watkins: injuries, traded to what many viewed as a terrible situation
2.08: Corey Davis hadn't stepped foot on an NFL field yet
2.09: Leonard Fournette: hadn't stepped foot on an NFL field yet
2.10: Keenan Allen: Injuries + Rivers isn't exactly young + Hunter Henry/Mike Williams competition for targets
2.12: Jordan Howard: JAG imo. He'll produce until someone with more talent comes along.

After that we get into Ajayi (RB/bad knee?), Baldwin (producing above talent level?), ARob (Bortles), McCaffery, Jordy (32), Dalvin, Alshon, QBs, Diggs, Kelce, Demaryius (age/QB), LeSean (age/RB/bad team), Landry/Parker, Martavis (puff puff sit out a year), Pryor (has played WR in what...18 games?), Tyreek (gimmick? or for real?)

So really....unless you want to start your franchise with a 28-30 year WR, an RB, or an unproven rookie....Cooper all of a sudden becomes an attractive option at 1.04 even though redrafters are expecting him to produce at a 2.10-3.02 rate. IMO, it comes down to expectation vs reality. The reality is the masses were valuing him at WR8-14 for this year and he started the season off producing close to that...but most Dynasty owners are hoping for WR1-4 overall production and dismissing Crabtree, even though he has been the value play for two years now.

Having said all of that, if I were doing a start up draft and I wanted to play it safe and take someone I felt wouldn't bust or lose half their value two years from now...Cooper would be towards the top of my list of options. I just wouldn't pay those prices in an established league where I already had a strong/competitive core built.
Thank you so much for this! A lot of energy and wisdom went into this post, and I appreciate it. Some very valid points all around.
T1
LUCK, Flacco, McCown
ZEKE, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, D Williams, Andre E, R Smith
DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN/WATKINS, AROB, C Davis, Sanu, Wallace, Inman, Adam H, Marshall, Dorsett, Hansen, Rudolph
GRONK, Ben W, Shaheen, Maxx, RSJ, Sims
-
DL: JORDAN/FLOWERS/HUGHES, Addison, Short, Okafor, Malik J
LB: E KENDRICKS, VIGIL, GOODSON, Schobert, Zach C, Morrison, Simon, James, Freeman, Patrick O, Nick K
DB: ADDAE, AMOS, POYER, Farley, Maye, Heath, Simmons, John J

T2
COUSINS, Rivers, Mariota
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Ajayi, Gore, D Williams, Forte, Dayes, J Davis
AJG/DIGGS/CRABS, Dez, Parker, JuJu, Crowder, Hogan, M Bryant, JMatt, Wallace, Zay, Pryor, Torrey, Rudolph
ENGRAM, Doyle, Ben W, Higbee, Swoope, Vance
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Wilkerson, Hughes, Wolfe, Autry, Longacre, Ogbah, Okafor
LB: KJW/KIKO/SIMON, Goodson, Klein, Ford, Judon, Coyle, Spaight, Burgess, Humber
DB: CHURCH/ADDAE/POYER/FARLEY, Simmons, Tavon, Phillips, John J, Kindred, Colbert

AussieMate
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 164
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:58 pm

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby AussieMate » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:08 am

Although I was in agreement that Cooper is overvalued I feel the group posting here may have over corrected a tad ha!! The biggest thing I take away from watching the game today is that Carr just trusts crab more and that grab is undervalued. Watching alot of plays today it almost seemed like Carr wasn't going through his progressions and just looked straight to crab (with good reason as it was obviously out matching his opponent) let's give it too atleast mid season before we throw Cooper in the bin. Wish I had Crabtree this year though, he was catching everything with ease today

Seventy5
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5097
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2013 3:42 am

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby Seventy5 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:26 am

AussieMate wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:08 am
Although I was in agreement that Cooper is overvalued I feel the group posting here may have over corrected a tad ha!! The biggest thing I take away from watching the game today is that Carr just trusts crab more and that grab is undervalued. Watching alot of plays today it almost seemed like Carr wasn't going through his progressions and just looked straight to crab (with good reason as it was obviously out matching his opponent) let's give it too atleast mid season before we throw Cooper in the bin. Wish I had Crabtree this year though, he was catching everything with ease today
I don't think anybody in here is throwing him in the bin or even bashing on him. I think the dynasty expectations vs redraft expectations are just drastically different in the short-term, and some dynasty owners are scratching their heads because he's producing high-end WR2 numbers instead of elite WR1 numbers. Essentially the opposite of Jordy Nelson (elite redraft value, tier 2-3 dynasty value).

Regardless, the sample size is two games and he'll be fine over a full season. It's easy to stress the sample size is one good game and one mediocre game, but this should explain why concrete conclusions shouldn't be drawn after two games - here are the current top six WRs in standard 1PPR leagues:

1. Michael Crabtree
2. Antonio Brown
3. JJ Nelson
4. Tyreek Hill
5. Jermaine Kearse
6. Adam Thielen

...something tells me that won't be the top six at the end of the season, and guys like Cooper, AJG, OBj, etc will be just fine.
DLF HOF League | 16 Team | 1PPR | 1QB-2WR/RB/2FL-1TE | Building:
QB: Andrew Luck | Deshaun Watson | Rivers
RB: Melvin Gordon | Joe Mixon | Alvin Kamara | TMontgomery
WR: TY Hilton | Stefon Diggs | Sammy Watkins | Mike Williams | Agholor | Dorsett
TE: Ebron | Shaheen | Gathers
2018 Picks: 1 | 1 | | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3

12 Team Tiered PPR/TE Premium | 2QB-1RB/WR/TE-4Flex | Rook/Devy League | Contending:
QB: Cam Newton | Matthew Stafford | Cutler
RB: Leonard Fournette | Kareem Hunt | David Johnson | Montgomery | Chubb
WR: Amari Cooper | Brandon Cooks | Jordy | CDavis | MWilliams | JRoss | KBenjamin
TE: Zach Ertz | Eifert | Ebron | Howard | ASJ
2018 Picks: 3 | 3

12 Team | 1PPR 2QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FL | Rookie/Devy League | Contending:
QB: Aaron Rodgers | Matthew Stafford
RB: Melvin Gordon | Kareem Hunt | Lynch | Abdullah | Chubb
WR: AJ Green | Dez Bryant | K Allen | Diggs | Cobb | John Brown
TE: Graham | Ebron | Everett | Shaheen
2018 Picks: 2 | 3 | 4 | 4

ericanadian
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3781
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:13 pm

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby ericanadian » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:34 am

From what I've seen, Carr tends to go deep only when his receiver has a lot of separation. Coop is the deep threat. I haven't run the numbers for yesterday, but in the first game Carr didn't make a single attempt with a depth of target over 20 yards and only made two over 12. Coop still did pretty solid because he can move in space, but this type of game definitely favours a possession guy like Crabs.

It's the same situation Dez struggled with under Romo (and continuing thus far under Dak) and I wouldn't have high expectations of it changing.
The Jolly Rodgers - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Trubisky, Garoppolo
RB - Montgomery, Henry, Bernard, Foreman, Booker, Prosise, Darkwa
WR - Julio, D. Bryant, Watkins, Lee, Gordon, Kupp
TE - Kelce, J. Smith, Shaheen
LB - Kuechly, Shazier
DL - Ansah, Suh, Hunter
DB - Joseph, Neal, Peppers
K - Just a stupid kicker

CK_
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 231
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby CK_ » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:14 am

Wile E. Coyote wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:27 pm
Crabtree:
................Tgts.........Rec........Yds.........TD
2015:........146..........85...........922.........9
2016:........145..........89........1,033.........8
2017:..........13..........12..........163.........3 (2 weeks)

Amari:
2015:........130..........72........1,070........6
2016:........132..........83........1,153........5
2017:..........18...........9.............95........1 (2 weeks)
Ew stats are icky...

How many of those targets were uncatchable? There is more to just the plain Jane stats. People throw stats out like candy with no regard of the meaning behind them. Let's not pretend that Carr is God's gift to the QB position...

And if we were really going with actual target numbers then Amari should of had 4 TDs already this year, seems like a good number if I'm drafting him in the 2nd round....

I'll take the better WR with 3 TDs :biggrin:

Crabtree > Amari He's overrated as *bleep*

I rather sell for another young Dynasty commodity to someone that for some reason believes in his overhypedness. Can I get a first and a Arob please?!
14 Team .5 PPR Return yards
QB: Mariota, Luck, McCarron
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Collins, R. Smith, Ekeler
WR: C. Davis, JMatt, J. Brown, Lockett, P. Rich, M. Williams, Godwin, Doctson, Gordon
TE: Gronk, Engram, Butt, Jonnu, Burton
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax

ArrylT
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1203
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby ArrylT » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:02 am

After 2 games Cooper has 2 less points than Julio Jones and the same number as AJ Green. WR 20-24 range - which is exactly what should be expected from him based on current situation & age.

Julio Jones had to play "second fiddle" to Roddy White for the first part of his career - I have no concern about Coopers success long term but I completely agree with Phaded at the same time. Basically as much as I'd love for Cooper to be having elite production atm, he is still learning the NFL game, still needs to improve and is not in a situation where he has to be force fed.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

ArrylT
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1203
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby ArrylT » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:03 am

BuckeyeNation wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:18 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:03 pm
It all depends on your perspective. With all the hype and massive expectations people forget the kid just turned 23 in June.

Typically we talk about patience for WRs and coming about in their 3rd and 4th years. He's posted 72/1000/6 & 83/1150/5 in his first two seasons, while having the best co-wide receiver playing alongside him amongst any of the elites.

Julio, OBJ, AJG, Dez, Brown don't have another near that level to compete for targets with. I bought "low" on him this season, so I am far from a long-holding truther expecting WR1 overall outcomes, but i like the kid's potential.
Agreed. I've said in the past that Cooper's early career in both real football and fantasy remind me a lot of the Julio/Roddy situation at the beginning of Julio's career. This lead to Julio being thought of as wildly overrated and overpriced as a dynasty asset by many, and it took several years before Julio truly became a stud. I don't think Cooper quite has Julio's ceiling, but if we keep things in perspective I think Cooper is off to a fine start to his career. Over 2200 yards receiving as a 21yo rookie and 22yo sophomore isn't anything to scoff at. It just seems like a disappointment to many in the dynasty community because of the price tag that he carries. This isn't Redraft, player values and prices aren't just tied to current production
Didnt see this before I posted - exactly the right take imo. :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4391
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:23 am

People really need to stop bringing up Julio Jones. Julio had a better sophomore season than Cooper (more yards and td's) and was averaging 116 YPG (76+ receiving yards in each of his first 5 games) his 3rd season before he got hurt. This whole "he was coming along slowly too" argument is complete BS. Julio significantly improved each of his first 3 years (until he got injured), while Amari has not. Everything about the comparison makes no sense. Outside of Crabtree there is nobody on that roster that should be competing with Aamri for targets, I don't think that's a good excuse as to why Amari hasn't been putting up numbers.

Cameron Giles
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6694
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:01 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:22 pm
You don't want to see a player trend backwards though, like... Jordan Matthews for example. You want to see progression.
I don't think we're to that point yet. Cooper is way more talented and productive than Matthews.

There are valid flaws being acknowledged about Cooper in this thread. But, ultimately we're still talking about a 23-year-old WR who's coming off an 80+ catch, 1,100+ yard season as a sophomore in the NFL. That's ridiculously hard to do.

I think there is another level he hasn't quite hit yet, but he still has a floor that's very high.

StableOfRBs
Starter
Starter
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 4:29 am

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby StableOfRBs » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:43 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:01 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:22 pm
You don't want to see a player trend backwards though, like... Jordan Matthews for example. You want to see progression.
I don't think we're to that point yet. Cooper is way more talented and productive than Matthews.

There are valid flaws being acknowledged about Cooper in this thread. But, ultimately we're still talking about a 23-year-old WR who's coming off an 80+ catch, 1,100+ yard season as a sophomore in the NFL. That's ridiculously hard to do.

I think there is another level he hasn't quite hit yet, but he still has a floor that's very high.
Not to mention he's one of only 3 players in NFL history to have 70+ catches and 1000+ yards on each of his first two seasons (the other two being OBJ and Colston). I'm not gonna knock a historically good receiver for having one poor game in his 3rd year due to game flow
12 Team .5 PPR, .2 PPCarry, TE 1PPR, 6 pt passing TDs, -3.5 per Int, 1pt/20 Return Yds
25 Player Rosters, keep 20, start 1QB 2RB 2WR 1FLEX 1TE 1DST

QBs: Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor
RBs: David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley, De'Angelo Henderson, Chris Carson, James Conner, Austin Ekeler, Rod Smith
WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, Ricky Seals-Jones
DSTs: Bengals

jonf86
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 422
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 2:47 pm

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby jonf86 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:56 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:23 am
People really need to stop bringing up Julio Jones. Julio had a better sophomore season than Cooper (more yards and td's) and was averaging 116 YPG (76+ receiving yards in each of his first 5 games) his 3rd season before he got hurt. This whole "he was coming along slowly too" argument is complete BS. Julio significantly improved each of his first 3 years (until he got injured), while Amari has not. Everything about the comparison makes no sense. Outside of Crabtree there is nobody on that roster that should be competing with Aamri for targets, I don't think that's a good excuse as to why Amari hasn't been putting up numbers.
I agree with your overall premise that Julio is better and will have had a significant better career when all is said and done, but parts of your logic I disagree with.

Julio showed improvement during his first 3 years, while Amari has not? It's like your penalizing Amari for having the more productive rookie season and not taking a massive leap forward his second year. It's also certainly not fair to make a declarative statement that Amari hasn't shown significant improvement in his 3rd year. We've seen 2 games out of him. It's too small a sample size. Cooper came into the NFL young for his draft class and has put up very good stats for a 1st/2nd year player. Will he become Julio? I doubt it, but at the same time, it wouldn't shock me if he enters that elite category.
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota, C. Palmer, D. Webb
RB: L. Bell, C.J. Anderson, D. Johnson, E. Lacy, D. McFadden, W. Smallwood
WR: A. Cooper, A. Robinson, J. Landry, R. Cobb, C. Meredith, M. Jones, John Brown, M. Mitchell, T. Taylor, D. Westbrook
TE: R. Gronkowski, J. Smith, C. Clay
10 Team Dynasty (.5PPR). Lineup: QB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB, WR/TE

QB: Marcus Mariota, Dak Prescott, Nathan Peterman, AJ McCarron, Bryce Petty, CK, Jake Rudock
RB: Jordan Howard, CJ Anderson, Ty Montgomery, Spencer Ware, Thomas Rawls, Wendell Smallwood, Matt Breida
WR: Chris Hogan, DeVante Parker, John Brown, Malcolm Mitchell, Dede Westbrook, Adam Humphries, Tavon Austin, Bruce Ellington, Rashard Higgins
TE: Travis Kelce, Kyle Rudolph, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Ryan Griffin
14 Team SuperFlex Dynasty TE 1.5 PPR and .15PPY, WR PPR, RB .25PPC and .5PPR, QB: 4 Point TDs
Lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, OP

User avatar
Phaded
Legend
Legend
Posts: 7214
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby Phaded » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:24 pm

There are 3 major problems with Cooper right now:

a) He does not play nearly physical enough. The moment a corner presses him or gets physical with him; it basically takes him out of it. You wouldn't know it, but Coop & Crab are basically the same size. Crabtree plays a way more physical breed of football. This results in Crabtree being trusted more in crucial situations and a big reason why Cooper has an absolutely horrible efficiency in the red zone. Cooper is the type that needs to get the ball and space, the Raiders know this. That is why Cooper is the WR they go to in the screen game, he is the target for the quick hitting passes with YAC opportunity. Pointing out the "yards of separation per target" stat is a massive flaw in the argument, why? The Raiders have little faith that Cooper will win on a contested catch or an overly physical situation, so of course he is going to have a lot of yards of separation on his targets because that is how the Raiders use him; when he is open enough that it will not be contested. Maybe this is something that Cooper will develop, but right now it is a simple gameplan to take away Cooper; be physical.

b) The Raiders do not care about your fantasy team and neither does Derek Carr. This is evident by their 3-RB rotation. Carr is very safe with the football, hence his 5 TDs and 0 INTs so far. This is even more evident by Seth Roberts getting just as many, if not more red zone looks as Cooper. The Raiders are going to do what puts them in the best position to win the game and Carr is careful with the football. There is absolutely no need to force feed Cooper. If he gets open, Carr will find him as he is usually first or second in the progression. Cooper being early in the progression can work against him because if he is getting pressed, Carr is simply going to look elsewhere. If Cooper is not open Carr is not going to take the chance of the turnover and move to his next progression. The offensive line is also top tier where Carr is going to have the time to do this.

c) Cooper still has a lot of learning to do. Yes, he has had a historical start to his career but I am also of the belief you cannot really go to far into history to compare the start of his career. The way the game is played has changed dramatically. Rookies also get much more immediate play time than they ever did before. Cooper was basically thrust into a position to succeed. Do not get me wrong, I love Cooper and I think he is going to be a great receiver one day and has had a promising start to his career, but people need to pump the brakes on their immediate expectations. He is just a kid still. He is not the elite talent yet that people think he is. Could he develop into that and has he shown a ton of promise? Absolutely. However, with the way that Cooper plays the game I doubt he will ever be the type to put up a bunch of TDs; but you'll likely be able to count on him for the receptions and yards.

I still believe the 2014 class has ruined expectations. People forget that Cooper is still only in his third year and has a very long career in front of him to either progress, regress or remain status quo. There are a lot of reasons to be excited about the potential he brings, but you also have to be ready for what will likely be a rocky and sometimes frustrating fantasy path.
Far too lazy to keep updating my teams on this.. was outdated..

User avatar
Tsunami
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1659
Joined: Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:46 am

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby Tsunami » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:44 pm

Seventy5 wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:32 am
Being a lifelong Raider fan who has lived in the Bay Area my entire life, there are two things that truly baffled me in recent years: 1. The dynasty community being so high on Latavius Murray when the team was always vocal to local media about not truly believing in him (but this stuff very rarely made it's way to the mainstream media. Even all the Raider homers on here kept telling people to pump the brakes on Latavius), and 2. Amari Cooper already going top five in start ups.
TL;DR but I got this far and I can't believe you're using your hatred of Latavius as an example of you being right. For two seasons you told people here to avoid him, and for two seasons he was a bargain RB1.

StableOfRBs
Starter
Starter
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 4:29 am

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby StableOfRBs » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Phaded wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:24 pm
There are 3 major problems with Cooper right now:

a) He does not play nearly physical enough. The moment a corner presses him or gets physical with him; it basically takes him out of it. You wouldn't know it, but Coop & Crab are basically the same size. Crabtree plays a way more physical breed of football. This results in Crabtree being trusted more in crucial situations and a big reason why Cooper has an absolutely horrible efficiency in the red zone. Cooper is the type that needs to get the ball and space, the Raiders know this. That is why Cooper is the WR they go to in the screen game, he is the target for the quick hitting passes with YAC opportunity. Pointing out the "yards of separation per target" stat is a massive flaw in the argument, why? The Raiders have little faith that Cooper will win on a contested catch or an overly physical situation, so of course he is going to have a lot of yards of separation on his targets because that is how the Raiders use him; when he is open enough that it will not be contested. Maybe this is something that Cooper will develop, but right now it is a simple gameplan to take away Cooper; be physical.

b) The Raiders do not care about your fantasy team and neither does Derek Carr. This is evident by their 3-RB rotation. Carr is very safe with the football, hence his 5 TDs and 0 INTs so far. This is even more evident by Seth Roberts getting just as many, if not more red zone looks as Cooper. The Raiders are going to do what puts them in the best position to win the game and Carr is careful with the football. There is absolutely no need to force feed Cooper. If he gets open, Carr will find him as he is usually first or second in the progression. Cooper being early in the progression can work against him because if he is getting pressed, Carr is simply going to look elsewhere. If Cooper is not open Carr is not going to take the chance of the turnover and move to his next progression. The offensive line is also top tier where Carr is going to have the time to do this.

c) Cooper still has a lot of learning to do. Yes, he has had a historical start to his career but I am also of the belief you cannot really go to far into history to compare the start of his career. The way the game is played has changed dramatically. Rookies also get much more immediate play time than they ever did before. Cooper was basically thrust into a position to succeed. Do not get me wrong, I love Cooper and I think he is going to be a great receiver one day and has had a promising start to his career, but people need to pump the brakes on their immediate expectations. He is just a kid still. He is not the elite talent yet that people think he is. Could he develop into that and has he shown a ton of promise? Absolutely. However, with the way that Cooper plays the game I doubt he will ever be the type to put up a bunch of TDs; but you'll likely be able to count on him for the receptions and yards.

I still believe the 2014 class has ruined expectations. People forget that Cooper is still only in his third year and has a very long career in front of him to either progress, regress or remain status quo. There are a lot of reasons to be excited about the potential he brings, but you also have to be ready for what will likely be a rocky and sometimes frustrating fantasy path.
Not entirely sure how accurate this is. Cooper ran a total of 307 routes last year, 13 of them were screens. That's a 4.2% route share which, yes, is above the NFL average but is the same percentage as AJ Green and less than Cobb, Martavis Bryant, Fitz, Keenan Allen, Edelman, Maclin, Tate, and DT. Yes it's more than Crabtree's share of 2.6% but that's only a difference of 7 screen routes (and Crabtree only ran 229 routes, if he had run 307 like Cooper it would've been a difference of 5 screen routes over the entire season).

Cooper's 3 highest routes run were the slant (77 routes, 25.1%), the nine route (58 routes, 18.9%), and the curl (36 routes, 11.7%). Sure the slant is definitely a good YAC route and one that highlights Cooper's ability to break ankles but the nine and the curl really aren't (the nine mostly because although Cooper is fast at a 4.42 the nine will usually pull a safety over the top and lead to a 2-on-1 situation along the sideline at the catch point).

As for the press coverage, yes, Crabtree is very good when dealing with press corners, he had a success rate of 75.2% on 62 routes run vs. press coverage. However, on 98 routes run vs. press Cooper had a 66.3% success rate, well within the NFL average, the same % as Alshon and higher than Cooks, DT, Kelvin, Landry, Maclin, Jordy, and Cobb.
12 Team .5 PPR, .2 PPCarry, TE 1PPR, 6 pt passing TDs, -3.5 per Int, 1pt/20 Return Yds
25 Player Rosters, keep 20, start 1QB 2RB 2WR 1FLEX 1TE 1DST

QBs: Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor
RBs: David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley, De'Angelo Henderson, Chris Carson, James Conner, Austin Ekeler, Rod Smith
WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, Ricky Seals-Jones
DSTs: Bengals

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4391
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: The problem with Amari

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:43 pm

jonf86 wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:56 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:23 am
People really need to stop bringing up Julio Jones. Julio had a better sophomore season than Cooper (more yards and td's) and was averaging 116 YPG (76+ receiving yards in each of his first 5 games) his 3rd season before he got hurt. This whole "he was coming along slowly too" argument is complete BS. Julio significantly improved each of his first 3 years (until he got injured), while Amari has not. Everything about the comparison makes no sense. Outside of Crabtree there is nobody on that roster that should be competing with Aamri for targets, I don't think that's a good excuse as to why Amari hasn't been putting up numbers.

Julio showed improvement during his first 3 years, while Amari has not? It's like your penalizing Amari for having the more productive rookie season and not taking a massive leap forward his second year. It's also certainly not fair to make a declarative statement that Amari hasn't shown significant improvement in his 3rd year. We've seen 2 games out of him. It's too small a sample size.
I'm not penalizing Amari for anything, I'm simply showing how Julio and Coopers situations are nothing alike.

Cooper has not made significant improvement in his 3rd year. I mean, that's simply a fact. Now WILL he (future tense) is a different story. But so far, past tense, he has not.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], dlf_kenm, Lotto4Life, Pac_Eddy, Ruggenater, Shoreline Steamers, ten7four and 12 guests