The problem with Amari

[moishetreats]

I'll add this thought.

The reason that I was so high on Cooper coming into this season is not primarily because of his Julio-upside (which he has; but, like most of the posters here, I highly doubt that he'll get there). Rather, IMO, he has the highest floor -- by FAR -- of any WR in the game. To have that locked in for a potential decade -- a WR2 at worst with WR1 probability and top-5 WR possibility -- is worth far more to me than someone with a better chance at the upside and far lower or riskier floor. As a first-round start-up pick, he fits the mold perfectly.

While his rough start casts some doubt about that high floor's value, I'll willingly hold off judging until the end of the season.

W......T.......F!!!!!!!

1) Remember, this was before this season.

2) I see risk with OBJ and his antics = lower floor. Evans has a lower floor in a PPR league, IMO. Julio and AJG often miss a couple of games. Brown and Jordy have higher floors, IMO, but that might be about it. And...

3) ...I stated that poorly. I meant that Cooper's high, high floor (top-3) AND projected longevity make his high floor the most valuable (rather than the highest).

Good catch.

[flyersfan1981]

I'll add this thought.

The reason that I was so high on Cooper coming into this season is not primarily because of his Julio-upside (which he has; but, like most of the posters here, I highly doubt that he'll get there). Rather, IMO, he has the highest floor -- by FAR -- of any WR in the game. To have that locked in for a potential decade -- a WR2 at worst with WR1 probability and top-5 WR possibility -- is worth far more to me than someone with a better chance at the upside and far lower or riskier floor. As a first-round start-up pick, he fits the mold perfectly.

While his rough start casts some doubt about that high floor's value, I'll willingly hold off judging until the end of the season.

W......T.......F!!!!!!!

1) Remember, this was before this season.

2) I see risk with OBJ and his antics = lower floor. Evans has a lower floor in a PPR league, IMO. Julio and AJG often miss a couple of games. Brown and Jordy have higher floors, IMO, but that might be about it. And...

3) ...I stated that poorly. I meant that Cooper's high, high floor (top-3) AND projected longevity make his high floor the most valuable (rather than the highest).

Good catch.

Then we definitely disagree on the definition of being a "high floor" guy. To me, a high floor is a guy that is going to get you at least 10 PPR points almost every single week. A guy like Keenan Allen is a classic high floor. Since the bye last year Cooper has scored in single digits for full PPR in over half his games. Meanwhile Keenan Allen has scored double digits in all but one game (13 total, almost a full season) going back to 2015. That is a high floor guy!

[Orenthal Shames]

Put on the tape from his rookie year and put on the tape now.

No progression.

I agree. The O line has went from one of the best to one of the worst in a year's time, which surely hasn't helped. The entire offense looked stuck in the mud, even before the Carr injury.

[RAB]

Just traded Cooper for Keenan Allen and 2018 1st. Should be top 3. Not looking back. Amari=frustration!

[Shcritters]

Just traded Cooper for Keenan Allen and 2018 1st. Should be top 3. Not looking back. Amari=frustration!

That’s a great trade. I’d take that one pretty quickly.

[Phaded]

Shocked that people are still willing to pay those prices.
Well done.

[jimmychoi]

Shocked that people are still willing to pay those prices.
Well done.

The Amari owner in my league wants more than that.

[Phaded]

Shocked that people are still willing to pay those prices.
Well done.

The Amari owner in my league wants more than that.

Of course the Cooper owners want more; they overvalue him.
It's not about that. It's the fact that he got someone to actually pay what they did for Cooper.

[Cameron Giles]

Just traded Cooper for Keenan Allen and 2018 1st. Should be top 3. Not looking back. Amari=frustration!

Is Keenan Allen any less frustrating long-term? Don't get me wrong, Allen is a better WR than Cooper, but he is 25 years old. It took him a while to really get to where he is now. Does anyone else remember when people were throwing in the towel on a 22-year-old Allen after a disappointing sophomore season? 77/783/4.

People need to keep perspective. Sure, there is a valid argument that Cooper has not improved skill-wise since his rookie season. There is also a valid argument that he's not paying attention to detail and is in his own head. But he is still so far ahead of the typical WR learning curve when it comes to talent, skill and production. There is still plenty of time for Cooper to turn things around.

If you can get good value (as you did) then sell. But, I still don't think that now is the time to get Cooper off your roster at all costs.

[Phaded]

I read a note on a Raiders blog that I agree with.
Cooper is not good enough to be a 1. He needs to be part of a 1a/1b scenario.

His statistics were also the benefit of situation.
The Raiders often play from behind, hence why Carr has so many 4th quarter comeback wins.

[Slackalacker]

I read a note on a Raiders blog that I agree with.
Cooper is not good enough to be a 1. He needs to be part of a 1a/1b scenario.

His statistics were also the benefit of situation.
The Raiders often play from behind, hence why Carr has so many 4th quarter comeback wins.

Kinda like the great Cobb experiment of 2015.

Cobb was great, Jordy goes down, Cobb stinks like poo. Jordy comes back, Cobb is solid again (except with injury issues)

Some players are just that 1b type like sanders, Djax, Cobb, etc. not skilled enough to face CB1s but can make CB2s look like fools.

[StableOfRBs]

I read a note on a Raiders blog that I agree with.
Cooper is not good enough to be a 1. He needs to be part of a 1a/1b scenario.

His statistics were also the benefit of situation.
The Raiders often play from behind, hence why Carr has so many 4th quarter comeback wins.

Amari Cooper career numbers by half (36 games):

1st half: 157 targets, 97 catches, 1350 yards, 5 TDs
2nd half + OT: 135 targets, 69 catches, 991 yards, 6 TDs

Granted like 2-2.5 games (mostly the second half) came without Carr playing but I'd still say this is a pretty good indication that the Raiders situation/playing from behind didn't have much of an influence on Cooper's stats, if at all

You could also break it down by point differential as well:

Trailing: 140 targets, 70 catches, 1016 yards, 7 TDs
Not trailing: 152 targets, 96 catches, 1325 yards, 4 TDs

[Phaded]

I read a note on a Raiders blog that I agree with.
Cooper is not good enough to be a 1. He needs to be part of a 1a/1b scenario.

His statistics were also the benefit of situation.
The Raiders often play from behind, hence why Carr has so many 4th quarter comeback wins.

Amari Cooper career numbers by half (36 games):

1st half: 157 targets, 97 catches, 1350 yards, 5 TDs
2nd half + OT: 135 targets, 69 catches, 991 yards, 6 TDs

Granted like 2-2.5 games (mostly the second half) came without Carr playing but I'd still say this is a pretty good indication that the Raiders situation/playing from behind didn't have much of an influence on Cooper's stats, if at all

You could also break it down by point differential as well:

Trailing: 140 targets, 70 catches, 1016 yards, 7 TDs
Not trailing: 152 targets, 96 catches, 1325 yards, 4 TDs

...I'm not sure what you are trying to get at with this? Can you elaborate?
I'm not saying that all of his production comes from trailing, but as you can see - it is a large chunk of it so I'm not sure you can say it had no influence.

The Raiders are often in a situation where they need to pass the ball - which is why they were able to produce two 1000 yard receivers last year; much like the year ARob & Hurns went off for the Jags. Whether it be from trailing or 3rd and long, they need to pass the ball a lot.

Also it's worth nothing that the Raiders have had a cakewalk schedule the last couple years so it was easier to produce statistically. Now that they are facing a tougher schedule this year, you are seeing the result.

[StableOfRBs]

I read a note on a Raiders blog that I agree with.
Cooper is not good enough to be a 1. He needs to be part of a 1a/1b scenario.

His statistics were also the benefit of situation.
The Raiders often play from behind, hence why Carr has so many 4th quarter comeback wins.

Amari Cooper career numbers by half (36 games):

1st half: 157 targets, 97 catches, 1350 yards, 5 TDs
2nd half + OT: 135 targets, 69 catches, 991 yards, 6 TDs

Granted like 2-2.5 games (mostly the second half) came without Carr playing but I'd still say this is a pretty good indication that the Raiders situation/playing from behind didn't have much of an influence on Cooper's stats, if at all

You could also break it down by point differential as well:

Trailing: 140 targets, 70 catches, 1016 yards, 7 TDs
Not trailing: 152 targets, 96 catches, 1325 yards, 4 TDs

...I'm not sure what you are trying to get at with this? Can you elaborate?
I'm not saying that all of his production comes from trailing, but as you can see - it is a large chunk of it so I'm not sure you can say it had no influence.

The Raiders are often in a situation where they need to pass the ball - which is why they were able to produce two 1000 yard receivers last year; much like the year ARob & Hurns went off for the Jags. Whether it be from trailing or 3rd and long, they need to pass the ball a lot.

Also it's worth nothing that the Raiders have had a cakewalk schedule the last couple years so it was easier to produce statistically. Now that they are facing a tougher schedule this year, you are seeing the result.

The way you had worded your previous post made it seem as though Cooper was only putting up solid numbers the past couple years because the Raiders were trailing often when in actuality he was making most of his hay when they weren't in situations where they needed to pass the ball. Of course it had an influence on his production, I don't think there's a WR in the NFL that will only produce when their team isn't trailing, but it had little to no influence when compared to some other wide receivers.

For comparison these are ARob's career numbers based on point differential:

Trailing: 255 targets, 138 catches, 2014 yards, 18 TDs
Not trailing: 129 targets, 65 catches, 838 yards, 4 TDs

Obviously the Jags have trailed more often than the Raiders were and ARob has an extra season under his belt so the overall numbers are higher than Cooper's but comparing the splits for the two it's pretty obvious which receiver is the one who produces because of being in need-to-pass situations and which receiver is the one who produces regardless of the team's situation

Another comparison across teams when it comes to time spent trailing:

2016 Raiders, roughly 45% of their plays were called while trailing
2015 Jaguars, roughly 66% of their plays were called while trailing
2016 Redskins, roughly 57% of their plays were called while trailing (just an example of a 3rd team that produced 2 1000 yard receivers in the same season)

Not to mention that last year the Raiders spent the 13th least time trailing in the NFL, slightly less than average, I think a lot of the reason they could support two 1000 yard WRs had to do with Carr playing much better than he actually is last year and that this year prior to his injury and his 2015 season are better indicators of his performance, easy schedule or otherwise

[Cameron Giles]

I read a note on a Raiders blog that I agree with.
Cooper is not good enough to be a 1. He needs to be part of a 1a/1b scenario.

His statistics were also the benefit of situation.
The Raiders often play from behind, hence why Carr has so many 4th quarter comeback wins.

You're right. Cooper may not be a true #1 in terms of a Julio or an AJ Green. He may be what Alshon Jeffery was to Brandon Marshall in Chicago.

But I disagree that Cooper is only productive in the NFL because of negative game script. Cooper was super productive in college with positive game script. He was flat out dominant.