The problem with Amari

[Phaded]

Press coverage is not the same as being physical. I was referring to both press and physical.

Press coverage is strictly about coming off the line and having a corner pressing you within the five yard difference.

Physicality is something different. I really do not care about what statistics someone can pull up to make a case because there are no statistics that I know of to measure what I am talking about. What I am saying comes from watching every game.

With that said for this stat you want to use, what is the exact criteria of beating a press route for the purpose of this statistic? Because I can tell you he will consistently get swallowed up. Does he get a catch off "beating" this press coverage? If not, it is very meaningless and the stat does not seem to account for how many catches came from press coverage.

[StableOfRBs]

Press coverage is not the same as being physical. I was referring to both press and physical.

Press coverage is strictly about coming off the line and having a corner pressing you within the five yard difference.

Physicality is something different. I really do not care about what statistics someone can pull up to make a case because there are no statistics that I know of to measure what I am talking about. What I am saying comes from watching every game.

With that said for this stat you want to, what is the exact criteria of beating a press route for the purpose of this statistic? Because I can tell you he will consistently get swallowed up. Does he get a catch off "beating" this press coverage? If not, it is very meaningless.

It's from the Reception Perception data that Matt Harmon charts and a "success" is defined as follows:

Success Rate vs. Coverage scores – how often a receiver gets open against the defenders covering him. A success is charted when a receiver “gets open” against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him.

I don't have the time or the resources to watch every snap that Cooper has played but Harmon does and has taken the time to go over it thoroughly. I generally trust his judgment when it comes to receivers and he's had a pretty good track record with his RP profiles when it comes to predicting future success for receivers.

[Phaded]

So it is a "statistic" by Matt Harmon; that is all I need to know.

Just because he has the time to do it, it does not mean he is a good judge of it. I have never liked Harmon or thought he was relevant.

It is something that is purely opinion and not fact, just like I stated my opinions.

[jonf86]

People really need to stop bringing up Julio Jones. Julio had a better sophomore season than Cooper (more yards and td's) and was averaging 116 YPG (76+ receiving yards in each of his first 5 games) his 3rd season before he got hurt. This whole "he was coming along slowly too" argument is complete BS. Julio significantly improved each of his first 3 years (until he got injured), while Amari has not. Everything about the comparison makes no sense. Outside of Crabtree there is nobody on that roster that should be competing with Aamri for targets, I don't think that's a good excuse as to why Amari hasn't been putting up numbers.

Julio showed improvement during his first 3 years, while Amari has not? It's like your penalizing Amari for having the more productive rookie season and not taking a massive leap forward his second year. It's also certainly not fair to make a declarative statement that Amari hasn't shown significant improvement in his 3rd year. We've seen 2 games out of him. It's too small a sample size.

I'm not penalizing Amari for anything, I'm simply showing how Julio and Coopers situations are nothing alike.

Cooper has not made significant improvement in his 3rd year. I mean, that's simply a fact. Now WILL he (future tense) is a different story. But so far, past tense, he has not.

Ok, so why even include the 3rd year in your analysis of comparing these two players? You're giving Julio credit for the improvement he showed from his 2nd to 3rd season, but so far Cooper can't be judged by his 3rd season yet because, again, 2 games is far too small a sample size. His lack of improvement is due to a lack of opportunity.

We can only judge these players off of their first 2 seasons and if we do that, the stats aren't wildly different.

[Seventy5]

Being a lifelong Raider fan who has lived in the Bay Area my entire life, there are two things that truly baffled me in recent years: 1. The dynasty community being so high on Latavius Murray when the team was always vocal to local media about not truly believing in him (but this stuff very rarely made it's way to the mainstream media. Even all the Raider homers on here kept telling people to pump the brakes on Latavius), and 2. Amari Cooper already going top five in start ups.

TL;DR but I got this far and I can't believe you're using your hatred of Latavius as an example of you being right. For two seasons you told people here to avoid him, and for two seasons he was a bargain RB1.

I never said I hated Latavius, not once...so for starters you can stop putting words in my mouth.

Secondly, all I said was Latavius' talent didn't match the hype that was building up on here and the production he had in a few games (I remember people giving up early 1sts for him). What the local media and coaches continually said almost never matched the hype of mainstream fantasy football outlets. He was and is a JAG with speed who was going to produce in a good situation until someone with a bit more talent came along....and that is exactly what happened. Tre Mason, Zac Stacy, Latavius Murray...it is rarely smart to invest early 1st round picks in those types. AND... just to respond to your last sentence, I never once told people to avoid him entirely...I just said I wouldn't invest top 10 dynasty resources or early 1st round picks in him. He, IMO, was one of those guys who was great to own if you bought at bargain bin prices, kind of like Rob Kelly now.

Thirdly, I wasn't trying to beat my chest and say I was right or wrong (I didn't even say I was right or wrong about anything?), I was simply giving a locals opinion on two noteworthy Raiders players/fantasy assets. You can take it or leave it, and judging by the fact you said you didn't read what I wrote, I'm fine with you leaving it.

Heck, I even said I understood why Cooper was going so highly in dynasty leagues and said I would consider him as early as 1.04 overall. I just think there is a disconnect between his short-term (redraft) expectations and long-term (dynasty) expectations when it comes to production, but that it's too early in the 2017 season to form any concrete conclusions on his 2017 projections.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Julio showed improvement during his first 3 years, while Amari has not? It's like your penalizing Amari for having the more productive rookie season and not taking a massive leap forward his second year. It's also certainly not fair to make a declarative statement that Amari hasn't shown significant improvement in his 3rd year. We've seen 2 games out of him. It's too small a sample size.

I'm not penalizing Amari for anything, I'm simply showing how Julio and Coopers situations are nothing alike.

Cooper has not made significant improvement in his 3rd year. I mean, that's simply a fact. Now WILL he (future tense) is a different story. But so far, past tense, he has not.

Ok, so why even include the 3rd year in your analysis of comparing these two players?

Because we're in the midst of Coopers 3rd year, that's why. And if you want complete apples to apples comparison, Julio Jones had over 250 yards receiving in his first 2 games of his junior year, Cooper has 95 over the same span. Julio was showing signs of a breakout and Cooper has not.

In any event, I think you're barking up the wrong tree. I'm not anti-Cooper, I just think the Julio to Cooper comparison is silly.

[Vcize]

I'm not penalizing Amari for anything, I'm simply showing how Julio and Coopers situations are nothing alike.

Cooper has not made significant improvement in his 3rd year. I mean, that's simply a fact. Now WILL he (future tense) is a different story. But so far, past tense, he has not.

Ok, so why even include the 3rd year in your analysis of comparing these two players?

Because we're in the midst of Coopers 3rd year, that's why. And if you want complete apples to apples comparison, Julio Jones had over 250 yards receiving in his first 2 games of his junior year, Cooper has 95 over the same span. Julio was showing signs of a breakout and Cooper has not.

In any event, I think you're barking up the wrong tree. I'm not anti-Cooper, I just think the Julio to Cooper comparison is silly.

Obviously they've diverged through Cooper's first 2 games this year, but heading into this year it's kind of insane how many similarities there were.

They were both top 10 draft picks who put up great numbers for a young WR in their first 2 years, very similar numbers to each other. They both were WR1b on their team while ceding lead targets to a savvy veteran who was a former 1st round pick. And they were both locked in with a promising young QB going forward.

[Space Cowboy]

Press coverage is not the same as being physical. I was referring to both press and physical.

Press coverage is strictly about coming off the line and having a corner pressing you within the five yard difference.

Physicality is something different. I really do not care about what statistics someone can pull up to make a case because there are no statistics that I know of to measure what I am talking about. What I am saying comes from watching every game.

With that said for this stat you want to use, what is the exact criteria of beating a press route for the purpose of this statistic? Because I can tell you he will consistently get swallowed up. Does he get a catch off "beating" this press coverage? If not, it is very meaningless and the stat does not seem to account for how many catches came from press coverage.

I am of this mindset too. Cooper checks out when he faces agressive, physical corners. He slows down and you can see how much slower he is to react to everything. Hence --- his countless drops and lack of trust from Carr in the red zone.

Yes he's still young but I don't see the hunger, fight and desire to really wanna get to that next level and join the Brown, OBJ, Evans, Julio crowd.

[onetwothree]

Yes he's still young but I don't see the hunger, fight and desire to really wanna get to that next level and join the Brown, OBJ, Evans, Julio crowd.

Will never understand comments like this. Subjective enough of an argument without questioning a player's desire. What's that hunger look like? Like someone who goes on a boat ride before the playoffs?

It's 2 games into the season. Let's revisit in a month. I think as long as the Raiders are winning they're not too worried about stats and are more than happy with their WR. Yes I understand it's fantasy and stats matter but take any 2 game samples from any player and you can make any number of arguments.

[ascherb]

When I watch Oakland, I think of Amari as one of those fast, fluid route runners who win by just getting to their spots with speed, quickness and smoothness in and out of breaks. Marvin Harrison was like this (not saying Coop is Harrison). Cooper is not really someone who fights through physical player, and he isn't really a WR who uses his body to shield away DBs to make catches either.

Crabtree is just more of a gritty player who isn't phased by physical corners and makes more contested catches in traffic. He's someone whom Carr can throw to when he's covered. Cooper is not this player. Crabtree's way more of what you might call a possession receiver, while Cooper is more of your explosive chunk play guys.

I think Cooper is probably the more dangerous player in real life, but Crabtree is steady and Carr trusts him.

Overall, though, Cooper is going to have his fair share of big games.

[jonf86]

I'm not penalizing Amari for anything, I'm simply showing how Julio and Coopers situations are nothing alike.

Cooper has not made significant improvement in his 3rd year. I mean, that's simply a fact. Now WILL he (future tense) is a different story. But so far, past tense, he has not.

Ok, so why even include the 3rd year in your analysis of comparing these two players?

Because we're in the midst of Coopers 3rd year, that's why. And if you want complete apples to apples comparison, Julio Jones had over 250 yards receiving in his first 2 games of his junior year, Cooper has 95 over the same span. Julio was showing signs of a breakout and Cooper has not.

In any event, I think you're barking up the wrong tree. I'm not anti-Cooper, I just think the Julio to Cooper comparison is silly.

It's all good. I never claimed you were anti-Cooper and I said upfront, I agree with your overall premise, just not how you're defending your argument. Imo, it doesn't matter if Julio had 500 yards in the first 2 games of his 3rd season. It's two games and that's not enough data to make a definitive statement. Just my two cents.

[Space Cowboy]

When I watch Oakland, I think of Amari as one of those fast, fluid route runners who win by just getting to their spots with speed, quickness and smoothness in and out of breaks. Marvin Harrison was like this (not saying Coop is Harrison). Cooper is not really someone who fights through physical player, and he isn't really a WR who uses his body to shield away DBs to make catches either.

Crabtree is just more of a gritty player who isn't phased by physical corners and makes more contested catches in traffic. He's someone whom Carr can throw to when he's covered. Cooper is not this player. Crabtree's way more of what you might call a possession receiver, while Cooper is more of your explosive chunk play guys.

I think Cooper is probably the more dangerous player in real life, but Crabtree is steady and Carr trusts him.

Overall, though, Cooper is going to have his fair share of big games.

Well said. Some very well thought out posts in this thread.

[maxhyde]

Pretty hard to bash anybody on offense right now...offenses in the NFL haven't been very good as a whole to start the season. And really are you feeding your wr1 the ball in a game you could win with backups?

Anyway I like Cooper and I think he is a terrific player but Del Rio cares about winning so feeding his WR1 isn't a huge priority...that and the complementary pieces are solid enough they can win even if teams make an effort shut Cooper down. If Cooper were to go down I think the Raiders offense would struggle to create on offense like they do now because he creates space for other players.

As much as I like Cooper I am also a seller if I get top 5 prices. Sometimes as a community we value too much the years ahead and not enough the production today when creating rankings. I absolutely think Cooper could be better (fantasy-wise) and more involved in that offense but he isn't and until the Raiders change offensive philosophies I doubt he will be a go to like other WR1's

Full disclosure: Both sells of Cooper haven't exactly worked out great for me yet so that is another thing to consider...I think there is very little risk is owning Cooper right now

[Phaded]

Full disclosure: Both sells of Cooper haven't exactly worked out great for me yet so that is another thing to consider...I think there is very little risk is owning Cooper right now

Last year I sold Cooper & McCoy for Evans & Riddick.

Very happy with it, still.

[ZPalmtree]

Full disclosure: Both sells of Cooper haven't exactly worked out great for me yet so that is another thing to consider...I think there is very little risk is owning Cooper right now

Last year I sold Cooper & McCoy for Evans & Riddick.

Very happy with it, still.

I had a team I was trying to build around Cooper and moved him in July.
G Cooper Ebron '19 1st
R Gronk Dez JMatt Dwayne Allen Forte and a 18 2nd
I also am still very happy.