Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

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Hahaclintondix
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Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Hahaclintondix » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:24 am

What are your rookie benchmarks that make you believe they'll be future studs? One step further, what makes you a believer that they'll be useful WR2/3 or RB2s?

Obviously we could see guys like Odell right away, but others like Green and Dez took time. Curious to see what you guys think.

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:50 am

AJ Green had 1,000 yards as a rookie

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby rubber_duck » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:05 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:50 am AJ Green had 1,000 yards as a rookie
Well, let's put the benchmark there! :ewink:

I recall seeing an article made a correlation between a receiver's future performance and the number of catches he had in his rookie season. The cutoff for indicating future stardom was a minimum of ~50 catches.

It seems like this would be a Rotoviz type of article, but I don't remember where it was from. Maybe someone else has a link to it?

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Hahaclintondix » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:30 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:50 am AJ Green had 1,000 yards as a rookie
Fair point. Guess I should have googled "AJ Green stats" before firing something off. So is 1,000 yards for a WR a solid target? Or is something like 800 acceptable? Maybe yards is the wrong idea and it should be catches like mentioned above.

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Kcarr » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:31 pm

Green's numbers are an okay benchmark but Zeke had 1994 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs. I think that is a solid benchmark for RBs.

Randy Moss had 1313 and 17 TDs. Seems like a decent WR benchmark :)
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:58 pm

For WRs, I want to see a guy get a line of at least 45-600-6 in their rookie year, with a game or 2 where they post high end WR2 numbers (7-100 or 5-60-2, etc) and I'll feel pretty solid about their future prospects.

Also, I would hope to see that WR clearly atop the depth chart by season's end as his team's WR2.

Both of those factors would mostly weed out a guy like Tyler Boyd, who posted pretty good cumulative numbers last year, but at no point did he flash as a future star - on film or in the box score.
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Friction » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:41 pm

Hahaclintondix wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:30 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:50 am AJ Green had 1,000 yards as a rookie
Fair point. Guess I should have googled "AJ Green stats" before firing something off. So is 1,000 yards for a WR a solid target? Or is something like 800 acceptable? Maybe yards is the wrong idea and it should be catches like mentioned above.
You might be thinking of Julio. I think he had 800 or 900 his rookie year and at the time he and AJ were being discussed together a lot.
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:40 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:58 pm For WRs, I want to see a guy get a line of at least 45-600-6 in their rookie year, with a game or 2 where they post high end WR2 numbers (7-100 or 5-60-2, etc) and I'll feel pretty solid about their future prospects.

Also, I would hope to see that WR clearly atop the depth chart by season's end as his team's WR2.

Both of those factors would mostly weed out a guy like Tyler Boyd, who posted pretty good cumulative numbers last year, but at no point did he flash as a future star - on film or in the box score.
Getting 13+ yards per catch is a bit aggressive for a rookie, especially if he's a slot guy like Kupp or Shepard
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:48 pm

For WR's, I don't really set statistical benchmarks for rookie production. It's more about certain skills I look for/prefer. You could have a 500 yard season and still flashed enough as a rookie.

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby onetwothree » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:53 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:40 pm
Getting 13+ yards per catch is a bit aggressive for a rookie, especially if he's a slot guy like Kupp or Shepard
A potential stud WR will end up getting work outside and not just be a slot guy.

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:21 pm

onetwothree wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:53 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:40 pm
Getting 13+ yards per catch is a bit aggressive for a rookie, especially if he's a slot guy like Kupp or Shepard
A potential stud WR will end up getting work outside and not just be a slot guy.
you're right, but even on the outside that can be a tough benchmark to reach even for an outside guy unless they're strictly a deep ball guy a la Will Fuller/John Ross, besides, the post was about guys being potential WR2/3s not stud WR1s (and even that average isn't a guarantee for potential/proven WR1 guys, AB, Jordy, DT, Diggs, Baldwin, MThomas all were <13 yards/catch last year)
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Reljac » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:57 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:48 pm For WR's, I don't really set statistical benchmarks for rookie production. It's more about certain skills I look for/prefer. You could have a 500 yard season and still flashed enough as a rookie.
Agree with Cameron Giles

I'd say be careful with benchmarks based on WR rookie years. Need to pay more attention to how they do it. You'd miss out on some great players on yards or reception benchmarks.
Antonio Brown 16r 167yds as a rookie
Calvin Johnson 48r 758yds as a rookie
Terrell Owens 35r 520yds as a rookie
Chad 'Ocho Cinco' Johnson 28r 329yds as a rookie
Reggie Wayne 27r 345 yds
Vincent Jackson 3r 59yds
Fitzgerald 58r 780yds
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby rubber_duck » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:09 am

All joking aside, finding a good benchmark will require some solid data analysis. The parameters of that can be a good topic for this discussion, but actually setting a good benchmark is not something that typically happens through casual conversation.

If we are looking for some parameters to start number crunching, then maybe we should begin with defining the goal (or purpose) of this benchmark. Is this an elimination benchmark or an inclusive benchmark? Are we trying to eliminate players that are likely to be busts? Or, are we trying to include identify players that have stardom potential?

Or is this benchmark to be for something else?

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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby Reljac » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:42 am

rubber_duck wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:09 am All joking aside, finding a good benchmark will require some solid data analysis. The parameters of that can be a good topic for this discussion, but actually setting a good benchmark is not something that typically happens through casual conversation.

If we are looking for some parameters to start number crunching, then maybe we should begin with defining the goal (or purpose) of this benchmark. Is this an elimination benchmark or an inclusive benchmark? Are we trying to eliminate players that are likely to be busts? Or, are we trying to include identify players that have stardom potential?

Or is this benchmark to be for something else?
Need to also define what a future stud is. It's clear in the original post they are referencing WR1, but what isn't clear is how many years of qualifying as a WR1 defines you as a stud. I remember when Mike Wallace was a top-10 ranked dynasty player on this site.
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Re: Rookie benchmarks for stardom/usefulness

Postby rubber_duck » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:00 am

Hahaclintondix wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:24 am What are your rookie benchmarks that make you believe they'll be future studs? One step further, what makes you a believer that they'll be useful WR2/3 or RB2s?
Yes, defining what is a "stud" receiver is necessary.

Also, the OP asked for two distinctly different things:
1) be future studs.
2) be useful WR2/3

I may look at that and see a benchmark for #1 being an elimination type that is trying to include only players that exhibit "stud" characteristics (whatever that may mean). This sort of benchmark would necessarily also exclude some future studs in order to not be inundated with misses.

As for #2, this would be a benchmark where I am looking to exclude the high bust potential players. Put another way, this would be the high floor group of players that may have a lesser chance of achieving top 10 status. Here we may want to filter out as many high risk factors as possible.


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