Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

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Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby jeffster » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:43 am

Okay, staking my controversial flag. We started talking about this in the week 1 thread, but I thought I would put it out there in its own spot so people can angrily ask me if I watched him play last night all together. :)

Now into some numbers...

Since 1999 amongst all RBs we have measurements for, only five weighed 179 pounds or less: Dexter McCluster, Dri Archer, Noel Devine, DeAnthony Thomas, and Donnel Pumphery. All of them are basically 2" taller.

Only six were 66.5" or shorter: Robbie Rouse, Jacquizz Rodgers, Darren Sproles, Antwon Bailey, Branden Oliver, and Dion Lewis. All of them weigh around 200 pounds - Sproles is the closest at 187.

And everyone loves the Sproles comparison, but Sproles is a compact box of muscle, with his bench press in the 74th percentile (23 reps). In fact, only 14 RBs since 1999 have done as few bench press reps as Cohen (11 reps): Kenyan Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Donnel Pumphrey, Jahad Thomas, Jon Cornish, Trey Watts, DeAnthony Thomas, Tre Smith, Donald Buckram, Lance Dunbar, Roy Helu, Buck Allen, Keon Lattimore, and Correll Buckhalter. Those 11 reps are in the 1st percentile for RB bench press.

Not a single name shows up on all of these lists... except Cohen. Actually the only ones that show up on even two of the three are Pumphrey and DeAnthony Thomas.

So yes, I'm basing my argument purely on his physical metrics and not on film - I'm a numbers guy. If he can have sustained success in the NFL while being basically record-setting short, light and weak, then he'll be a historic talent. It's possible, and would be pretty exciting if it panned out. But I'll let others sink roster spots into that bet.

(And yes, I watched him play last night and he loked way better than I expected. But one game isn't going to change my mind.)

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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby Ryantacular » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:54 am

His size is why I don't own him anywhere.

Also because heavily invested in Howard.

Sooooo I hope he doesn't become a solid 3rd down back :crazy: :roll:
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby ninotoreS » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:05 am

Warrick Dunn was less than 190lbs, with worse BMI than Cohen.

I would like to see Cohen put on 5-10 more lbs before he becomes a 10-15 carries a week guy, but the thing is, he can probably add that much weight pretty easily without losing any speed/burst, and probably will just from being on NFL-regimen weight-training. Cohen's low bench-rep score only seems to confirm that he, like many college players, didn't spend much time in the gym. He will now, because the NFL does a lot more to encourage it.

Dunn is obviously still an amazing outlier himself, but there's your precedent, OP.

Also, as the above all implies, I think you're misstepping putting so much emphasis on height when searching for relevant precedent. Height doesn't make a guy more durable, and other than a minor benefit to pass-catching and blocking ability, it doesn't help RBs. Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here.
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby Plank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:26 am

Players have a tendency to announce themselves in this league and Cohen has done it in the preseason and now in Week 1, if free I would certainly grab him as a curiosity, but yes I would not go out of my way to acquire/roster him ... What was owning Dunn like in Fantasy?
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby jeffster » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:35 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:05 am
Warrick Dunn was less than 190lbs, with worse BMI than Cohen.

I would like to see Cohen put on 5-10 more lbs before he becomes a 10-15 carries a week guy, but the thing is, he can probably add that much weight pretty easily without losing any speed/burst, and probably will just from being on NFL-regimen weight-training. Cohen's low bench-rep score only seems to confirm that he, like many college players, didn't spend much time in the gym. He will now, because the NFL does a lot more to encourage it.

Dunn is obviously still an amazing outlier himself, but there's your precedent, OP.

Also, as the above all implies, I think you're misstepping putting so much emphasis on height when searching for relevant precedent. Height doesn't make a guy more durable, and other than a minor benefit to pass-catching and blocking ability, it doesn't help RBs. Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here.
Warrick Dunn is 3" taller, 187 pounds... and was drafted 20 years ago. Sproles seems like a better comp, though I don't have bench press info on guys from 1997 to compare that aspect. Being not-the-shortest-person-on-the-field seems like it matters quite a bit for receiving, all else equal.

Obviously none of Cohen's handicaps are impossible to overcome on their own. But all three together is, as I pointed out, unprecedented.

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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby flashgordon12 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:43 am

I respect your opinion, but I don't see how you can say let other people waste their time with him. Before yesterday he was practically free. And now we've seen his upside. I'm not gunna say he is going to be the next Barry Sanders, but surely there's a spot on your roster for someone who led a team in targets in his first game as a running back and looked good doing it. Metrics be damned
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby jeffster » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:53 am

flashgordon12 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:43 am
I respect your opinion, but I don't see how you can say let other people waste their time with him. Before yesterday he was practically free. And now we've seen his upside. I'm not gunna say he is going to be the next Barry Sanders, but surely there's a spot on your roster for someone who led a team in targets in his first game as a running back and looked good doing it. Metrics be damned
Well, I am being a little bombastic on purpose. Obviously I would roster the guy if he was free and my other choice was Christine Michael or whatever. But if I sounded too reasonable in the original post then it wouldn't be a proper hot taek. :snooty:

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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby captain howdy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:15 am

The problem is your claim is too vague.

What is successful?

Top 10, top 20, top 36?

For one season, or sustained "success"?

Successful generally? Or successful relative to his draft position?

Bc, and you would agree, he scored many points yesterday, and had the opportunity for even more.

What exactly are you saying? He won't repeat yesterday every week? No, of course not, nor will Hunt or Alex Smith...or on the other side of the coin, leveon bell or Demarco Murray who let owners down

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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby clarion contrarion » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:36 am

dude looks like a fire hydrant charged with electricity ! is that bombastic enough ? being short & lacking prowess at the bench press is not good but being 3 inches shorter than dunn at only 8 lbs. less is a benefit to me , he has crazy quicks and agility , while never a bellcow he has a serious offensive role with his skills IMHO.
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby Plank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:48 am

Was looking at some box score data, he was targeted 12 times in the passing game, led the team in targets..
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby skip » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:56 am

I replied to a handful of threads this off season regarding Cohen as I believe he is too undersized to play RB in the NFL and I don't plan to let one week of production alter that take. If he can demonstrate continued success for the bulk of this season, then he's worth consideration. I have no problem if owners want to roster him for "practically free" but he's not someone I'd invest much in and personally not someone I would invest anything in at all.
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby _yeti » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:49 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:05 am
Warrick Dunn was less than 190lbs, with worse BMI than Cohen.

I would like to see Cohen put on 5-10 more lbs before he becomes a 10-15 carries a week guy, but the thing is, he can probably add that much weight pretty easily without losing any speed/burst, and probably will just from being on NFL-regimen weight-training. Cohen's low bench-rep score only seems to confirm that he, like many college players, didn't spend much time in the gym. He will now, because the NFL does a lot more to encourage it.

Dunn is obviously still an amazing outlier himself, but there's your precedent, OP.

Also, as the above all implies, I think you're misstepping putting so much emphasis on height when searching for relevant precedent. Height doesn't make a guy more durable, and other than a minor benefit to pass-catching and blocking ability, it doesn't help RBs. Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here.
"Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here." Love this.

The thing is that in college programs lifting IS required and regimented. In my opinion we didn't lift often enough, and did not achieve anywhere near what we needed to grow as much as we could have. I think we ran too often, for too much endurance, and did not lift heavy enough. We needed to be lifting much higher percentages of our maxes, much more often, and with more volume. As I have dove deeper into understanding powerlifting ten years later I know for a fact we didn't. Then again, the average instagram model now has a better understanding of weight training than people did 10-15 years ago, so I can't say how advanced it has gotten. All I know is my strength and conditioning coach was a s*** show and it is a travesty he was paid to do his job at the level he did... old washed up, ex-college FB who sniffed the NFL and did not understand the science of lifting at all smh....

In regards to your point specifically, some players THRIVE in the pros at lifting and preparation because it is now THEIR FULL-TIME EXTREMELY HIGHLY PAID BUT ALSO VOLATILE JOB which they feed their family with. They don't have to do things like BE A FULL TIME COLLEGE STUDENT (our system is so stupid), but at the same time, others (TRICH is the best example) fail in the NFL at properly preparing (amongst on-field failings, just talking about weight room with him right now). TRich talked about how at Alabama everything was laid out from schedule to exactly how much he would lift and when, it is not as controlled in the NFL and that freedom led him to slack off. Meanwhile JJ Watt has a bed at the facility (literally).

Point just being, the NFL will not for sure put mass on a given player, it's up to their work ethic.

ANYWAY, tangent aside, Dunn was a beast and the closest to a standalone back at that size and he still had Mike Alstott to BASH defenses (and be a pretty darn good all-around back, amazing for a fullback). A guy like Cohen will simply ALWAYS be a part of a committee, at best, in today's NFL. I personally do not pursue players of that nature. At the same time, if you are a guy who likes rostering a Sproles or a Riddick, Cohen certainly has that upside and I wouldn't be mad at anybody for going after him.
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby Phaded » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:12 am

I do not own Cohen, I almost had him but he got taken just before me.

I thought he looked great in preseason and great yesterday.

A lot of people are all about all these formulas. I have always been an eye test guy and that is something Cohen passes for me. He plays bigger than he is and is heavily involved.

He is probably too expensive to buy, but his owners should be happy and Howard owners should be worried.
Far too lazy to keep updating my teams on this.. was outdated..

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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby _yeti » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:16 am

Phaded wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:12 am
I do not own Cohen, I almost had him but he got taken just before me.

I thought he looked great in preseason and great yesterday.

A lot of people are all about all these formulas. I have always been an eye test guy and that is something Cohen passes for me. He plays bigger than he is and is heavily involved.

He is probably too expensive to buy, but his owners should be happy and Howard owners should be worried.
Agree with all of this. I wouldn't want him as my regular starter, but you could do much worse for a down the bench guy who you could use to spot-start in a pinch.
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Re: Tarik Cohen is too small to be successful

Postby flashgordon12 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:03 am

I agree pretty much with whats been said above. He's never going to be a bellcow back, but I don't think anyone expected that. But in PPR, guys like Riddick, Sproles and Woodhead have very real value. Not every team is lucky enough to have Bell, DJ or Zeke. I'm just happy to have a guy on my team that is fun to root for and is exciting to watch every Sunday.
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