Buy low or sell: Abdullah

[maxhyde]

He's good but his cost is borderline in my leagues. I would buy but might seek out a cheaper option. Rather pay a 1st for Ameer though than a 2nd for Riddick

[Sterling Archer]

Buy low opportunity has passed. He's still likely cheaper than when the season gets going, but his stock has risen in the last 11 months. But I'll show my work on why I think he's still worth a look right now:

-The Lions did invest in the OL in the offseason. Sure, they lost Decker for an unknown period of time, but at worst he should be back by the time your playoffs start. Until then, they brought in two different guys. One was a high draft pick bust and the other actually rated well while healthy. Between the two of them, they should be able to hold down the fort (LT) until Decker returns. The two other upgrades should help. People look at Abdullah's rookie ypc of 4.2 or whatever and are unimpressed, but I think the rest of the RBs on the team averaged like 3.1 or 3.2, so the line has been VERY bad. If they improve to just average, he's got a shot at 5.0 ypc.
-Riddick is overrated AF. Yes, he's a skilled pass catcher, but so is Abdullah. However, he's absolute garbage as a runner. He limits the OC in the effective plays they can call when he's on the field. He's not even that dynamic once he gets the ball. When was the last time you saw a running back athletic profile less inspiring than this? https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/theo-riddick/
-The offense should be improved this year. The improved line will help, but don't forget Stafford had a finger injury last year and Marvin Jones suffered a leg injury. Galloway should be an improvement over Boldin and, who knows, maybe Ebron decides to show up.
-Abdullah is currently holding an injury prone discount, but he's actually one of the more durable RBs I've seen. The guy had a solid workload in four years at Nebraska and a medium workload in his rookie year and yet missed zero games in those 5 years. ZERO. He's had but a single missed time injury in the past 6 years.

[Intoodeep]

No, it is not just false. But I did have a fat finger. It should have read:
"The actual play-by-play logs of 2016 show that he doesn't. The sample size is limited to just 1 1/2 games"

And here are links to the ESPN play-by-plays. Feel free to browse them or go back and watch the 2016 games. Detroit's current coaching staff rotated Theo into the game series by series, it was not game situation dependent.

2016 week 1
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400874573

2016 week 2
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400874488

Abdullah left the week 1 game early due to injury, and Theo finished it up.
Abdullah then departed for the remainder of the season near the end of the 2nd quarter in week 2 ... and Theo finished that game up as well.

So, until I see Detroit change their game plan, I am running with what they did when Abdullah was healthy last year. Well, that and what the coaches are currently saying/doing.

I'm not sure I would ever use 1.5 games to predict usage, however I do believe that if you think Abdullah's injuries are an anomaly, Theo and Zenner are not of much consequence to him being an extremely productive fantasy back.

The thing about Abdullah is that he gives the offense the most flexibility. Keeping him in on 3rd and 4 gives you a better option to draw or pass, thus keeping the defense guessing. Theo has proven he isn't much of a runner, and Zach... well he is a roster clogger in both fantasy and the NFL.

All this being said, as a Detroit Lion's fan I have made a promise to never ever own another Lion's player on my roster. It has been the equivalent of the Madden curse for me.

[IBall2]

All this being said, as a Detroit Lion's fan I have made a promise to never ever own another Lion's player on my roster. It has been the equivalent of the Madden curse for me.

I have the same curse over my head as a Vikings fan... Bought Teddy Bridgewater 2 years ago right before he blew out his knee. I owned Blair Walsh through his awful field goal days. It was tough for me to pick up Thielen during the season last year just because I feel that I may have cursed him.

[Space Cowboy]

Cue laugh track on this one but his ceiling is Tiki Barber. I'd gladly buy but he isn't all that cheap.

[Cameron Giles]

I don't have any ADP data to support it, but I'd guess that Abdullah's price has risen over the last month or so. He's healthy and the Lions are adamant that he's their primary back. The window to buy low has closed, unless Abdullah goes bonkers in a Devonta Freeman way.

The two biggest things that (can) limit Abdullah's upside:

1. Theo Riddick
2. Redzone carries

If you're looking for RB2 production, then you have a reasonable expectation.

[Friction]

Sold him for a 2018 first to a bottom third of the league team. I like Abdullah, but that was a snap accept.

[Shcritters]

Sold him for a 2018 first to a bottom third of the league team. I like Abdullah, but that was a snap accept.

Would do this in a heartbeat if I had him.

[IBall2]

The two biggest things that (can) limit Abdullah's upside:

1. Theo Riddick
2. Redzone carries

If you're looking for RB2 production, then you have a reasonable expectation.

3. Injury

[Sterling Archer]

Cue laugh track on this one but his ceiling is Tiki Barber. I'd gladly buy but he isn't all that cheap.

That's a really good comp.

[Reljac]

I'm a sell on him. I don't like backs entering there third year that haven't established where fantasy points are scored. Two years, 11 starts, 161 attempts only 698 yds and 2 TDs, yet 5 fumbles.

He's losing too much goal line and receptions for my taste... which is quite questionable when the guys he's losing it to are a UDFA and a 6th rounder.

Seen too many times in the past when a guy can't get goal line that there value erodes. Always reminds me of Julius Jones when that happens. Without Goal Line their Ceiling is severely limited.

[Sterling Archer]

I'm a sell on him. I don't like backs entering there third year that haven't established where fantasy points are scored. Two years, 11 starts, 161 attempts only 698 yds and 2 TDs, yet 5 fumbles.

He's losing too much goal line and receptions for my taste... which is quite questionable when the guys he's losing it to are a UDFA and a 6th rounder.

Seen too many times in the past when a guy can't get goal line that there value erodes. Always reminds me of Julius Jones when that happens. Without Goal Line their Ceiling is severely limited.

This is a bad take. Ryan Mathews get ragged on for injuries, but when he was healthy he was very good, yet he lost goal line touches to Tolbert and receptions to Woodhead (both were undrafted). Melvin Gordon lost receptions to Woodhead, too. Both of those guys were highly touted 1st round picks. Losing touches to a pass catching specialist is something that can happen to just about any RB if that's the system their coach likes to run. Ingram lost receptions to Pierre Thomas... until he didn't. He proved his worth in the passing game once he got his shot. Abdullah will do the same.

[akbfrosty]

This is a bad take. Ryan Mathews get ragged on for injuries, but when he was healthy he was very good, yet he lost goal line touches to Tolbert and receptions to Woodhead (both were undrafted). Melvin Gordon lost receptions to Woodhead, too. Both of those guys were highly touted 1st round picks. Losing touches to a pass catching specialist is something that can happen to just about any RB if that's the system their coach likes to run. Ingram lost receptions to Pierre Thomas... until he didn't. He proved his worth in the passing game once he got his shot. Abdullah will do the same.

This isn't really true. Back in 2014 (Thomas's last year with the Saints), Thomas was still getting 4 receptions a game, but then he got hurt. I think his injury opened up Ingram's role as a receiver moreso than Ingram taking it.

I agree with most of what you've said in this thread about Abdullah, but I think you're read on Riddick is off. Earlier you said something about him being bad with the ball in his hands when in actuality, he's one of the best after the catch. He consistently makes people miss when he has space...he might literally be the best at it. I don't think he just goes away as he's a necessary piece of that offense.

Speaking of those 2014 Saints, I think there's a good chance we see a similar breakdown of touches to that season for this backfield. Maybe Abdullah with less touchdowns but more receptions than Ingram, and Riddick a PPR RB2 similar to Thomas.

[Reljac]

This is a bad take. Ryan Mathews get ragged on for injuries, but when he was healthy he was very good, yet he lost goal line touches to Tolbert and receptions to Woodhead (both were undrafted). Melvin Gordon lost receptions to Woodhead, too. Both of those guys were highly touted 1st round picks. Losing touches to a pass catching specialist is something that can happen to just about any RB if that's the system their coach likes to run. Ingram lost receptions to Pierre Thomas... until he didn't. He proved his worth in the passing game once he got his shot. Abdullah will do the same.

Sorry, if you don't like my opinion, but that's why it's my opinion. I don't think Mathews was ever a good investment, just like I don't think Abdullah is. For the value Mathews traded at early in his career he was easily a good sell.... Have you ever looked at Matthews stats? He had two seasons where he contributed... if that's what you look for in a player, that's not going to create too many wins. I owned Matthews twice, the time I traded him 5 minutes after I drafted him for Lesean McCoy and when I inherited him on a roster I took over then traded him for a 1st that later became part of a two player deal for Leveon Bell... that's how you win, Matthews owners were not carried to championships by him and his two seasons that he cracked 700yds.


If your arguement is that Abdullah is a good investment because years from now he may have the job to himself... I'd say at the same value Kareem Hunt is a better investment and so is a next year 1st in a class that looks to have a variety of interesting RB options that may actually have a RB job to themselves before they turn 26 years old. I wouldn't be suprised if one of next year's options is the Detroit Running back in 2018

[Cameron Giles]

The two biggest things that (can) limit Abdullah's upside:

1. Theo Riddick
2. Redzone carries

If you're looking for RB2 production, then you have a reasonable expectation.

3. Injury

I don't think it's fair to label him injury prone. He never missed a game in college, played his entire rookie season and then was injured last year.